2016 Trends. January 2016

Transcription

1 2016 Trends January 2016

2 Purpose To streamline all the sources of 2016 info into one document Share trend info throughout the company and to our customers Understand the implications to AWI of these trends

3 MACRO TRENDS 3

4 Economy is Improving 4

5 Economy is Improving Chart 1: Chart 2: Chart 3: Chart 4: 5

6 Demographic Trends Source: The State of CPG Instantly

7 Generation Z Generation Z are people born after the Millennials, generally defined with birth years ranging from the mid or late 1990s through the 2010s. Source: Health & Wellness Gen Z Hartman 7

8 Generation Z Cuisine Interest Generation Z is comparatively less interested in well-established cuisines than other generations and more interested in emerging multi-cultural cuisines. Source: 2016 Food Trend - Datassential 8

9 Fundamental Shift in Eating Behavior Source: 1) New York University Study 9

10 Lean Cuisine Reposition Source: Nestle Frozen Food 2014 Investor Meeting Presentation 10

11 Food Health Becomes Top Concern Source: 2015 The Center For Food Integrity 11

12 Consumers Expectation of Food 12

13 Digital Life is Shifting Food Culture Consumers become active participants in the World of Food. Digital life is shifting us to a fully realized participatory food culture Source: Our Digital Food Life Hartman

14 Meal Challenges 14

15 2016 FOOD TRENDS

16 Sources

17 2016 Food Trends Lifestyle Eating Simple and Real Sustainability Eat Your Veggies Trending Flavors Digital Disruption

18 Lifestyle Eating Dieting is out, wellness is in Eat to feel/look better Probiotics Protein Energy Products specifically geared toward hydration, energy, protein, and other supplements that consumers need when being more active are becoming increasingly common Eating for your DNA/Ancestry Examples of this Trend: Lean Cuisine Arby s Shake Shack s Shack Track & Field club

19 Consumer Interest in Protein Amplified Source: 1) IFIC Industry Council, 2013, 2) IRI New Product Analysis

20 Growing Importance of Protein Source: 1) IFIC, Food & Healthy Survey,

21 Shoppers Spend More For Higher Protein Items, Underscoring The Trade-up Opportunity Source: IRI Syndicated, 52 weeks ending 07/2013 Note: Adjusted for typical servings per unit for yogurt category 21

22 Higher Protein Categories Over-index With Important Demographic Cohorts Source: IRI Homescan Panel, 52 weeks ending 07/

23 Gluten Free Source: Health & Wellness 2015 and Organic & Natural 2014 reports, Hartman 23

24 Gluten Free Source: Health & Wellness 2015 and Organic & Natural 2014 reports, Hartman 24

25 Simple and Real Nothing artificial Minimally Processed Real fats (whole milk, butter) GMO Free Simple ingredients Greater transparency Transparency about ingredients or the story behind how a product is made Food Safety GMA s SmartLabel By the end of 2015: Removed artificial flavors Reduced sodium by 10 percent

26 Strong Growth in Desire for Fresh Foods Source: 2015 US Packaged Food at a Crossroad, Hartman 26

27 What Consumers Look For on a Label Source: October 2014 Issue of Consumer Reports Magazine 27

28 What Consumers Want on Food Labels 28

29 Less Low In Bad Stuff, More Good Stuff Hartman Group: Reimaging health & Wellness,

30 Consumers Want GMO Labeling

31 Sustainability Nothing Goes to Waste Using cuts of meat and vegetable parts that used to be thrown away Emissions Ingredient Sourcing Palm oil Locally sourced/hyper Local/Farm stamped/house made Cage Free Eggs Denny s

32 Cage-Free Eggs Food Service/Other Compass Group (largest foodservice company) Aramark (second largest foodservice company) Sodexo (third largest foodservice company) Carnival Corp. (the largest cruise liner) Royal Caribbean (the secondlargest cruise liner) Michael Foods (country's largest processed egg provider) Rose Acre Farms (country's second largest egg producer) Rembrandt Foods (country's third largest egg producer) Restaurants Arby s: in the U.S. by 2020 Au Bon Pain: in the U.S. by 2017 Burger King QSR: in the U.S. by 2017 Caribou Coffee: in the U.S. by 2020 The Cheesecake Factory CAKE: in the U.S., timeline to be announced in 2016 Denny s DENN: by 2026 Dunkin Brands DNKN: in the U.S. by 2025 Einstein Bros Bagels by 2020 Jack in the Box/Qdoba JACK: in the U.S by 2025 McDonald s MCD: in the U.S. and Canada by 2025 Noodles & Co.NDLS: has already made the switch Panera Bread PNRA: in the U.S. by 2020 Peet s Coffee Quiznos: by 2025 with a goal of 2022 Shake Shack SHAK: by the end of 2016 Starbucks SBUX: in North America by 2020 Subway: in the U.S. and Canada by 2025 Taco Bell YUM:in the U.S. by 2017 T.G.I. Friday s: in the U.S. by 2025 Wendy s WEN: in the U.S and Canada by 2020 Major Manufacturers Barilla: in the U.S. by 2020 Campbell Soup CPB: by 2025 ConAgra Foods CAG: by 2025 Flowers Foods FLO: by 2025 General Mills GIS: in the U.S. by 2025 Grupo Bimbo: globally by 2025 Kellogg K: in the U.S. by 2025 Mondelez International MDLZ: by 2020 in U.S., Europe by 2025 Nestle: in the U.S. by 2020 Unilever UL: globally by 2020 Stores Target by 2025 Costco Whole Foods since 2005

33 Consumer Perspective of Sustainability Source: The Consumer Perspective on Sustainability, 2015 Hartman 33

34 Familiarity of Sustainability Rise Familiarity with the term sustainability has risen every year since 2007 and reached an all-time high in

35 Frequency of Organic Usage Organic usage is holding steady, with more than a third of consumers using organics at least monthly. Occasional users grow up to weekly users. 35

36 Eat Your Vegetables Several Trends Influencing: Desire for local sourcing High beef/meat prices Lifestyle eating Seasonality adds excitement and can lower cost Incorporated into center of plate or becomes center of plate I.e. Veggie burger on Menu at White Castle or Barilla Veggie Noodles at Grocery Additional Veggie related trends: more pickled items, artisan pickles, mushrooms, seaweed Increase in blended burgers

37 Trending Flavors part 1 Ingredient Alternatives Nuts instead of dairy Plant-based protein Pulses (chickpeas, beans, lentils) Positive impact on environment Non-meat options Eating to feel good Burnt/charred Taking the smoke flavor to the next level Works on veggies and meats Savory Everything from ice cream to yogurt Alternative to sweet (sugar is under fire)

38 Trending Flavors Part 2 - Ethnic Some Like it Hot Ethnic condiments (the next Sriracha, such as Gochujang, Bold, spicy flavors (Nashville Hot Chicken) Examples in the Marketplace: Doritos Roulette Authentic Ethnic Gen Z (25% of population) doesn t considered it ethnic, just part of their meal consideration set Authentic dumplings Thai AZ Noodle Soups (Campbell s institute) Latin/Cuban French Revival

39 Digital Disruption Delivery options (Uber, Amazon PrimeNow, Munchery) Online Shopping/Apps Kroger expanding its Click and Collect program Meal Kits Blue Apron, Chefday, The Purple Carrot, Plated, Hello Fresh, Peach Dish Post Worthy Is it shareable? Pizza Nachos

40 APPENDIX 40

41 Additional Flavor Trends Hawaiian poke Ancient Grains BBQ (U.S. regions and abroad) Sweet Heat Ethnic spices (not just heat) Fried Chicken

42 Food Safety Researchers found that consumers traditional short-term food safety concerns about germs, aka pathogens, are now augmented with consideration for long-term health and wellness benefits, such as whether a food is free of carcinogens.