Expected evolution of RCN prices Short term: Slight decrease Middle term: End of season

Transcription

1 GAMBIAN CASHEW MARKET BULLETIN ISSUE no 14 OF JULY 15, 15 CASHEW MARKET IN THE GAMBIA Expected evolution of RCN prices Short term: Slight decrease Middle term: End of season The first rains are installed and the quality of the scarce remaining stocks of cashes started degrading. The end-of-the-season activities taking place are: - Drying, jute-bagging and containerizing arehouse stocks for export; - Receiving, containerizing and shipping trans-shipments jute-bagged nuts from Casamance (Ziguinchor), Sales are expected to end ithin the next to eeks at village markets and at the beginning of August at collection centres and the Banjul port. Prices should continue to decline gradually. In the North Bank Region, ith the arrival of rains, farm gate prices have dropped to 40 GMD/kg and the arehouse prices are negotiated around 50 GMD/kg depending mainly on quality. Price of deliveries across the border dropped from 700 to 600 FCFA/kg. In the West Coast Region farm gate prices fell beteen 52 and 55 GMD/kg according to quality. The majority of sales are made by farmer associations hich are evacuating their last stocks in vie of the end of Ramadan festivities. The scarce sales in the Fonis are made by omen and children, conceding the tomato tin at 70 GMD (46.5 GMD/kg). In the Loer River Region trading came to an end. Bicycle collectors are no longer plying the villages and cashe trees have dropped their very last fe fruits ith the recent donpours.

2 CASHEW MARKET IN OTHER WEST AFRICAN COUNTRIES Cashe campaign can be considered complete in most West African producing countries. CÔTE D IVOIRE A record of 625,000 tons of ra nut has been produced this year, boosted by governmental reforms and investments in the sector. This is nearly 12% above the 14 output (560,000 tons). According to the Ministry of Agriculture, the exports of ra cashe this season are valued at 514 million Euros (337 billion FCFA), more than a half above the 14 export performance (221.7 billion FCFA). The considerable earnings fetched during this campaign pushed farmers to better maintain their plantations. At the beginning of this rainy season they seem better maintained; even the apparently abandoned plots have been eeded. MALI GMD/kg RCN farm gate prices April/mid-July 15 - eeks 14 to Highest 21 The trade is sparse; very small quantities of nuts are traded on village markets beteen 0 and 275 FCFA/kg Loest NIGERIA The campaign ends ith farm gate prices still around 170 NGN / kg (510 FCFA/kg). SENEGAL Trade sloed don considerably, the quality of cashes fell sharply ith the generalisation of rains in all production areas and prices decreased accordingly. In Casamance (Ziguinchor, Sedhiou, Kolda), stocks are becoming scarce. Prices fell sharply. Small quantities of nuts are traded mostly at farm gate prices beteen 300 and 600

3 FCFA/kg. Very fe sells of better quality cashe are still made at FCFA/kg. In the Fatick Region prices remained stable despite the scarcity of available stocks and the reduced local demand. Farm gate sales are negotiated beteen 600 and 700 FCFA/kg, and most of them are concluded at around 600 FCFA/kg. The trading season should finish very soon ith the departure of the majority of foreign buyers, herefrom the advice given to producers to not keep stocks, unless it is for supplying the domestic processors. INTERNATIONAL CASHEW MARKET CommodAfrica and Rongead quoted the folloing CIF prices for ra cashe of West African origin from the beginning to mid-july 15, in. Origin Quality KOR (lbs./bag), price 2 July 15 9 July July 15 Short term variation Benin KOR Source: Rongead and CommodAfrica Burkina Faso End of season Côte d'ivoire KOR Ghana KOR Guinea Bissau KOR KOR KOR KOR KOR End of season Mali End of season Nigeria Senegal, Gambia KOR KOR KOR KOR KOR The folloing chart based on Rongead information illustrates the decreasing price trend of West African loer quality cahe (KOR inferior to 48 lb. /bag) delivered to India since the last eek of April. Prices of good quality cashe deliveries (KOR above 48 lb. /bag) increased steadily during the same period.

4 1800 Ra cashe C&F prices delivered to India, April to mid- July 15, eeks 14 to KOR < 48 KOR > 48 CASHEW KERNEL PRICES The international cashe kernel market is relatively stable, recording fe transactions. Many Asian processors have already secured their contracts for the second half of the year, as have done the majority of American and European importers. With most of the cashe sector stakeholders covered ith forard contracts, the spot market is expected to remain steady during the next months. In the loer range, prices of cashe kernels WW 3 FOB Asia rose steadily, from an average of 3.35 US$/lb. at the beginning of April to 3.80 US$/lb. by the last eek of May. They decreased sloly afterards, to mid-june. In the higher range, prices increased from 3.60 US$/lb. at the beginning of April to 3.80 US$/lb. by end May and declined to 3.70 US$/lb. until mid-june. It is possible that prices of cashe kernels ill experiment a slight increase over the rest of 15, if the production of Californian almonds reveals as bad as expected and a part of the demand sitches to cashes. Rongead indicated the folloing FOB prices of different grades of Asian cashe kernels at mid-july: Types Grades Price USD/lb. Recent variation Whole Whites WW Stable Scorched Whites SW Stable Splits S Stable Broken LP Stable The folloing chart illustrates the FOB Asia price evolution of cashe kernels WW 3 from April up to mid-july. The minimum prices rose regularly from 3.35 to 3.55 US$/lb. from the beginning of April until mi-may, and decreased to 3.40 US$/lb. since the beginning of July.

5 Maximum prices had a similar evolution, increasing from 3.60 to 3.80 US$/l. from April to end of May, and falling to 3.75 US$/lb. during the first to eeks of June and 3.70 US$/lb. since then to mid-july. WW 3 cashe kernels prices FOB Asia, US$/lb., April - mid July 15, eeks 14 to Min Max EVOLUTION OF CURRENCIES VERSUS US$ OANDA currency information quoted the folloing exchange rates of selected currencies against the US dollar from June 8 th to July 14t h 15. Country/currency US$ versus local currency, 15 8 June June 16 June 19 June June 27 July 6 July 14 Gambia GMD CFA Franc BCEAO Nigerian Naira NGN Indian rupee INR European Union Euro Source: Oanda forex trading The official interbank exchange rate for trading purposes practiced by the Central Bank of the Gambia on July 14 as US$/dalasi ( The same day, the Gambian Trust Bank Ltd ( indicated the dalasi selling rate at 40 US$/dalasi and the buying rate at US$/dalasi. The folloing charts illustrate the evolution of these currencies.

6 8-Jun 10-Jun 12-Jun 14-Jun 16-Jun 18-Jun -Jun 22-Jun 24-Jun 26-Jun 28-Jun 30-Jun 2-Jul 4-Jul 6-Jul 8-Jul 10-Jul 12-Jul 14-Jul 8-Jun 10-Jun 12-Jun 14-Jun 16-Jun 18-Jun -Jun 22-Jun 24-Jun 26-Jun 28-Jun 30-Jun 2-Jul 4-Jul 6-Jul 8-Jul 10-Jul 12-Jul 14-Jul 8-Jun 10-Jun 12-Jun 14-Jun 16-Jun 18-Jun -Jun 22-Jun 24-Jun 26-Jun 28-Jun 30-Jun 2-Jul 4-Jul 6-Jul 8-Jul 10-Jul 12-Jul 14-Jul Weekly evolution of Dalasi and Indian Rupee against the US dollar from 8 June to 14 July 15 GMD INR Weekly evolution of FCFA and Naira against the US dollar from 8 June to 14 July FCFA Naira Weekly evolution of Euro against the US dollar from 8 June to 14 July

7 ADVICE TO GAMBIAN CASHEW STAKEHOLDERS - Farmers: sell all the stock still available; - Traders and exporters: avoid concluding ne contracts, as the risk is high of not being able to provide the total quantities contracted. Continue to trade on small revolving contracts in order to avoid excessive risks; - Local processors: sale most of the kernels at prices in the current range