MONTHLY REPORTS PULSES JUNE - JULY 2016

Transcription

1 MONTHLY REPORTS PULSES

2 Monthly Prices Movement Pulses prices overall remained firm throughout the month amid expectation of lower output, delayed Monsoon despite strict government measures to control price rise. Policies India imported 5.79 million tonnes of Pulses in the 2016 fiscal, which is the highest ever. However, imports may come down in 2017 fiscal if the monsoon rainfall is good as expected. The only concern about the production of Pulses is the performance of monsoon in the harvesting phase.

3 This year, there will be a Pulses demand supply gap of over 7.6 million tonnes. Procurement of Rabi Pulses has reached to MT as on June 13, Total domestic procurement of Pulses by government agencies has reached to 1,15,000 MT along with 51,000 MT of Kharif. The Government ordered further import of 12,500 MT Pulses for buffer stocks which include 10,000 MT Masur and 2,500 MT Urad. India directed National Cooperative Consumers Federation of India (NCCF) to sell Tur and Urad at Rs 120/kg via mobile vans in the national capital region. India increased the size of the buffer stock of Pulses by five times to 0.8 million tons for this year. So far about 0.12 million tons of Pulses has been procured by the government through the various agencies.

4 Government asked Futures exchanges in India to halt new contracts of Chickpea or Chana, the top-most consumed Pulse in the country presumably to check speculative pricing. Among Pulses, only Chana was traded on futures. Tur and Urad were banned from futures a decade ago. India approved import of 0.3 million tonnes Green Lentil, 0.2 million tonnes Yellow Peas, 0.10 million tonne Red Lentil and 0.02 million tonnes each of Arhar and Urad. Madhya Pradesh government raised the Pulses sowing target by 26 percent to 2.15 million hectares. As the production of Tur Dal has gone down which pushed up the prices to Rs 200 per kg, Maharashtra government has a demand of mt of Tur Dal from Center. The daily consumption of Maharashtra is around 2500 mt of Tur Dal per day.

5 Haryana government reduced the Pulses stock limit for traders, dealers and millers, in the middle of rising prices of Pulses. Stock limit for the dealers reduced to 150 quintals from 250 quintals while for retailers, reduced to 15 quintals from 25 quintals. Ground Report Chana arrivals in major mandis of India have been reported 70 per cent higher as against last year. Altogether, statistics points out tons, which is 70 percent more as compared to last year's arrival during April- May. Madhya Pradesh markets saw huge surge in Chana arrivals in the last two months. Almost tons have arrived in the market which is three times. Arrival of 71338, in Maharashtra, in Rajasthan and tons of Chana in Uttar Pradesh were reported last year this time.

6 This time Maharashtra witnessed around tons, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh tonnes. Despite higher prices of Pulses in the domestic market during April, Mumbai port has seen a sharp fall of 25 percent in Pulses imports. In April this year, Pulses imports were 76,872 tons, compared to 1,019,60 tons same period last year. However, imports have increased as compared to March which was tonnes. Peas and Chickpeas are the ones which dropped the most in the imports during April in Mumbai port. In April this year, only 2040 tons of Peas was imported as compared to the previous year s tons tons of Chickpea was imported in April this year against tons in last year April. Urad and Lentils imports also dropped like peas and Chickpeas. In April, 1704 tons of Lentils and 6648 tons of Urad was imported in Mumbai port as against 3528 tons of Lentils and 7344 tons of

7 Urad last year. There is also some rise in the imports of some Pulses in seen in the Mumbai port this April like Tur and Moong tons of Tur and tons of Moong were imported in April as against tons of Tur and only tons of Moong imported last year same period. Import price of Chana has also been rising steadily with the landed cost hitting Rs.57 a kg against Rs.50 in May. In the last four months, import prices have gone up by Rs.2,000 a quintal. About MT imported Pulses reached India and delivery of about 6000 MT Pulses are in process. Arrived quantity includes MT Tur and 2000 MT Urad.

8 The State Governments have been urged repeatedly to seek allocation of Pulses from the buffer stock to sell at reasonable prices which should not be more than Rs.120 /kg. The Pulses cultivation in Maharashtra is estimated to increase by around 2 lakh hectares this season. Tur cultivation in Indian state of Maharashtra is estimated to increase up to 4 lakh hectares. Government looking forward for a permanent strategy to fill the gap between insufficient supply, and increase demand. It is estimated that the demand for Pulses increases by a million tons every year, which makes imports an indispensable factor. About 0.13 million tons of Pulses have been seized from hoarders in the last few months.

9 Global Myanmar is stated to have surplus production of 50,000 tonnes, but there is a lack of proper infrastructure to export the Lentils to India. Myanmar is planning to increase its exports of beans and Pulses to 1.4 million tonnes this year, after two years of falling production. Myanmar exported 1.1 million tons of Beans and Pulses in , as the price of Matpe Bean in India reached a decade-high of $1800 per tonne. With the strong demand from India, the prices of Matpe could rise as high as $2000 per ton. Australia s Chickpea production in likely to rise by 7.6% to 1.09 million tonnes, almost double from 0.56 million tonnes in Area under Chickpea in Australia forecast to rise by 8.47% to 0.72 million

10 hectares. US Dry Pea, Lentil and Chickpea plantings reached all time high due to higher prices in the international market. The above-average prices are the consequence of strong demand from India which faced production shortfalls on consecutive harvests. USDA projected a 24 per cent, 72 per cent and 18.5 per cent surge in Dry Pea, Lentils and Chickpea planting. Loading of Pulses is slow from Burma and around metric tonnes Urad and metric tonnes Tur likely to reach India by month end.

11 Outlook India hiked the Minimum Support Price (MSP), the rate at which the government buys the grain from farmers, of Pulses by Rs 425 to Rs 5,000-5,225 per quintal for the Kharif season. This clearly is a paradigm shift where Pulses were given least priority. But with lower domestic production, virtually no incentive to produce and high import bill, this step is likely to give fillip to producers to turn to Pulses farming. Farmers across the country are preparing to grow bumper Pulses with prices at record high as the monsoon spreads its way over mainland. Also the prices will remain high for consumers for another three months till the harvest of Pulses begins. Maximum retail price of Urad is ruling at Rs.196/kg, Tur at Rs.166/kg, Moong at Rs.120/kg, Masoor at Rs.105/kg and Gram at Rs.93/kg. Chana

12 prices have soared by about 24% in the last one year to up to Rs 94 per kg, forcing the government to direct its agencies to sell it at Rs 60 per kg. In the last two years, the cost of Urad has increased by around 120% % farmers in Guntur district likely to shift to Cotton and Chilli as they require less water compared to Urad. Government policy of not hoarding more than 1000 quintal at a time is not beneficial for farmers and traders. Also disposal of stock within 45 days is a negative aspect for Urad. Urad sowing in Guntur district of Andhra Pradesh this year likely to start after days due to delayed Monsoon. Urad prices likely to go as low as Rs /quintal by the end of 2016.

13 Tur prices likely to react with expectation of good African crop this season. African Tur crop expected to be good and continuous selling pressure likely from Africa. The state government of Maharashtra fears that price of Tur Dal may touch Rs per kg in the next few weeks because of low production in the state following a drought. Nevertheless, window of sowing Tur is long and sowing activity can pick up pace even in July. Progress of Monsoon in the key growing states would give direction to Pulses prices moving ahead. In tandem with Tur, Masoor prices also featured a weak tone today on lack of buying support.

14 Masoor prices expected to closely follow Tur prices and likely to move accordingly. Canadian and US crop situation so far is very optimistic and overall supply would be at record levels. Higher supply may weigh on global Masoor prices once the new crop supply starts and consequently the domestic Masoor prices may ease. Sources informed that over 0.4 million tonnes new Masoor already sold for Sept-Nov shipment and about 0.15 million tonnes contracted for Sept- Oct shipment for India. Considering the heavy supply situation, Masoor prices likely to remain under pressure in medium to long term. Masoor prices for short term would follow Tur prices movement. If government brings in more buffer stock in the states then prices of Pulses are supposed to come down. But due to the extremely low

15 production of all the major variety of Pulses, it's uncertain that the prices will face a significant drop. The flow of imported Pulses not very impressive while demand-supply situation is not balanced which may keep Pulses prices supportive until Kharif harvest. In case India succeeded to achieve Kharif Pulses target, the dependency on imported Pulses may get reduced and may help to cool down prices. Commodity Online India Limited 205, President Plaza, Thaltej Circle, SG Road Ahmedabad, Gujarat, India Customer Care :