The Food Industry Monitor

Transcription

1 The Food Industry Monitor The performance of the Italian food companies Report Presentation Prof. Carmine Garzia Pollenzo - June 22th

2 The sample 815 Companies 15 Sectors 8 Years of financial information 61 Billion Euro of aggregated sales 71% Of joint stock Italian firms 2

3 The sample - Business sectors Beverage & Luxury Bier Spirits Wine Water Brand intensive Pasta Coffee Sweets Transformation Cured meat Frozen food Milk Weat Preserves Oil Packaging Food Equipment

4 The sample - Ownership breakdown International owner 9% Listed 1% Italian owner 12% Cooperative 4% Family business 74%

5 Food Industry - Growth 7.1% 5.8% FOOD Net Sales 3.5% 3.6% Italy GDP 1.7% 2.1% 3.4% 2.2% 1.0% 2.6% 1.5% 0.9% 0.6% 0.1% % -1.7% Source: Fmi, World Economic Outlook, *2017: Projections 5

6 Food Industry - Profitability ROS ( ) 6.1% 5.8% 6.1% 6.4% 6.6% 5.2% 5.1% 5.4% 5.1% *2017 projections 6

7 Food Industry - Financial Structure Debt ratio ( ) *2017 projections 7

8 Sectors analysis - Growth CAGR sales ( ) 8.3% 6.8% 7.4% 6.6% 6.4% 5.2% 5.1% 3,8% 1.9% 3.7% 3.6% 1.7% 2.1% 2.8% 1.3% -0.6% 8

9 Sector analysis - Profitability 13.0% ROS ( ) 9.3% 7.7% 7.4% 6.4% 7.6% 7.1% 5,8% 4.1% 3.3% 4.3% 3.8% 2.5% 4.4% 5.0% 1.3% 9

10 Sector analysis - Added Value Added value/sales (2016) FOOD EQUIPMENT 37.9% DISTILLATI SPIRITS 30.1% WATER ACQUA SWEET & CANDIES DOLCI PACKAGING BIRRA BEER PASTA COFFEE CAFFÈ FROZEN SURGELATI FOOD 25.8% 24.7% 24.3% 24.3% 24.0% 23.4% 22.7% Industry avg.: 21,7% WINE VINO PRESERVES CONSERVE PRODOTTI CURED A BASE MEAT DI LATTE E DERIVATI MILK 19.0% 17.7% 16.2% 15.7% FARINE FLOUR 9.8% OLIVE OLIO OIL 6.9% 10

11 Sectors analysis - Financial Structure Debt Ratio (avg, ) ,6 media

12 Sectors analysis - Growth & Profitability % 8.0% Flour 8,4 % OK 7.0% 6.0% Olive Oil Frozen Food Coffee CAGR sales ( ) 5.0% Wine 4,3 % 4.0% Preserves 3.0% 2.0% Cured Meat Milk Spirits Pasta Sweet & Candies Water 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% 18.0% ROIC average ( ) 12

13 Sectors analysis - Debt ratio & Growth Debt Ratio (avg ) 4.00 Milk 4,3 % Frozen food 3.50 Preserves Cured Meat 3.00 Water Olive Oil Flour 2, Sweet & Candies Pasta Spirits Wine 1.50 Coffee OK % 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% CAGR Sales ( ) 13

14 Sectors Rank Sustainable Growth Index = (CAGR sales*100)*(ros avg*100) Debt Ratio SGI Sustainable Growth Index 1 Coffee Best financial structure 27,5 2 Food Equipment Best growth 25,0 3 Spirits Best profitability 20,7 5 Wine Problems with profitability 10,8 4 Flour Problems with profitability 10,9 6 Pasta No sufficient growth 8,6 7 Frozen food Problems with the financial structure 8,1 8 Packaging Problems with the financial structure 6,4 9 Sweet & Candies No sufficient growth 5,8 10 Water 4,7 11 Preserves 4,3 12 Olive oil 3,4 13 Milk 2,4 14 Cured Meat 1,0 14

15 Food Industry - Analysis for dimensional classes Caffè Distillati Dolci CAGR Sales ( ) Latte e derivati Olio Pasta Salumi Vino 7.7% 9.4% 10.3% 11.4% 8.8% 4.9% 2.9% 3.0% 1.8% 0.6% 3.4% 3.0% 1.0% 5.3% COFFEE SPIRITS SWEET -1.9% & CANDIES MILK OLIVE OIL PASTA CURED MEAT WINE -7.3% Grandi LARGE aziende companies Medie MEDIUM aziende companies > 100 Mio Mio 15

16 Food Industry - Analysis for dimensional classes Caffè Distillati Dolci ROS Latte (2009 e ) derivati Olio Pasta Salumi Vino 15.3% 10.2% 7.2% 6.1% 7.9% 8.4% 8.1% 4.0% 4.6% 3.5% 2.2% 0.9% 3.2% 2.4% 2.6% 4.0% COFFEE SPIRITS SWEET & CANDIES MILK OLIVE OIL PASTA CURED MEAT WINE Grandi LARGE aziende companies 16 Medie MEDIUM aziende companies > 100 Mio Mio

17 Food Industry - Analysis for dimensional classes Caffè Distillati Dolci Tangible assets Growth ( ) Latte e derivati Olio Pasta Salumi Vino 19.9% 10.0% 9.4% 11.2% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 6.0% 4.6% 0.6% 2.3% 0.9% COFFEE SPIRITS SWEET & -5.3% CANDIES -6.0% MILK OLIVE OIL PASTA CURED MEAT WINE -15.4% -12.7% Grandi LARGE aziende companies Medie MEDIUM aziende companies > 100 Mio Mio 17

18 Food Industry - Analysis for dimensional classes NFP/ EBITDA ( ) Caffè Distillati Dolci Latte e derivati Olio Pasta Salumi Vino (0.03) COFFEE SPIRITS SWEET & (0.88) CANDIES MILK OLIVE OIL PASTA CURED MEAT WINE Grandi LARGE aziende companies Medie MEDIUM aziende companies > 100 Mio Mio 18

19 Comparison with other industries

20 Comparison with other industries - Profitability ROE ( ) 9.0% 5.2% ROE Italian media companies imprese italiane (avg.) ROE ROE food settore industry Food (avg.) Source: MBRES,

21 Comparison with other industries - Profitability ROI (2016) 10.5% 9.6% 10.1% 8.2% Mechanical Meccanico Legno Wood e Mobili Abbigliamento Clothing Food Source: MBRES,

22 Comparison with other industries - Financial Structure Debt ratio (avg ) Imprese Italian companies Italiane Food industry Source: MBRES,

23 Comparison with other industries - Investments Tangibles asset growth ( ) 3.6% 2.7% 2.3% 2.3% 1.9% 0.1% 1.0% 0.4% 1.4% 1.3% 0.7% 0.2% % -1.1% Imprese Italian italiane companies Food industry Source: MBRES,

24 Comparison with distribution (supermarkets) - Profitability ROS GDO vs Food (%) 5.8% 6.0% 6.4% 6.6% 5.2% 5.1% 5.4% 3.3% 2.7% 2.4% 2.3% 1.9% 1.9% 1.4% GDO Food Source: MBRES,

25 Comparison with other industries - Assets breakdown Assets Breakdown Food companies vs Italian companies (2016) Stock Receivables 16% 25% 10% 15% 12% Intangible Assets 11% 26% Tangible Assets 24% Other 24% 38% Food Food industry Italian Imprese companies Italiane 25

26 Comparison with other industries - Liabilities breakdown Liabilities Breakdown Food vs Italian Companies (2016) Equity 42% 41% Financial Debts 25% 30% Commercial Debts 18% 15% Others 15% 15% Food Food industry Italian Imprese companies Italiane 26

27 Focus on wine industry

28 Wine - Growth Growth Food vs Wine ( ) 8.6% 7.1% 7.2% 5.8% 4.8% 4.9% 4.2% 4.4% 3.4% 3.5% 3.6% 3.6% 2.1% 2.2% 2.6% 1.4% Food industry Vino Wine 28

29 Wine - Profitability ROS Food vs Wine ( ) 6.1% 4.0% 5.8% 5.0% 5.2% 5.1% 4.3% 4.6% 5.4% 4.3% 6.1% 5.6% 6.4% 6.6% 6.1% 6.0% 5.1% 4.8% Food industry Vino Wine *2017 projections 29

30 Wine - Export 26 Million hl Italy France Production: 50,1 Mio hl Export: 20,6 Mio hl Value: 5,6 B 2,7 /l Production: 43,5 Mio hl Export: 14 Mio hl Value: 8,2 B 5,8 /l Source: INDV, Organisation Internationale de la Vigne et du Vin,

31 Wine - Growth & Profitability CAGR sales ( ) 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% COOPERATIVE TRADER WINE MAKERS 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% ROS average ( ) 31

32 Wine - Debt ratio & Profitability Debt ratio (avg ) TRADER COOPERATIVE WINE MAKERS % 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% ROIC average ( ) 32

33 Wine - Debt ratio & Growth Debt ratio (avg ) TRADER COOPERATIVE WINE MAKERS % 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% CAGR sales ( ) 33

34 Wine - Assets breakdown Assets Breakdown Wine (2016) Stock 26% 21% 30% 18% Receivables 22% 4% Intangible Assets 1% 31% 34% Tangible Assets 33% 1% 20% Other 18% 27% 15% Cooperative Wine Produttori makers Trader 34

35 Wine - Liabilities breakdown Liabilities Breakdown (2016) Equity 32% 24% 57% 30% Financial Debts 31% Commercial Debts 22% 21% 36% 12% Others 15% 11% 10% Cooperative Wine Produttori makers Trader 35

36 Econometric model and previsions

37 Determinants of ROIC Produttività Correlation analysis on ROIC ( ) Immobilizzazioni Imm. Materiali/ Tasso d'indebitamento Materiali Attivo Totale Crediti Vs Clienti/ Attivo Totale Debt Ratio Fixed asset productivity Fixed asset/ Total asset Credits/ Total asset Tutti i diritti riservati

38 Determinants of growth Correlation analysis on Growth ( ) Tasso d'indebitamento Crediti Vs Clienti/Attivo Totale Debt Ratio Credits/ Total asset Tutti i diritti riservati

39 Growth projections 7.1% 5.8% Food net sales GDP 1.7% 2.1% 3.4% 2.2% 3.5% 2.6% 3.6% 3.3% 3.2% 0.6% 0.1% 1.0% 0.9% 1.5% 1.5% 1.2% % -1.7% Source: Fmi, World Economic Outlook, *2017, 2018, 2019: Forecast 39

40 Export projections Export growth ( ) 14.7% 8.4% 6.1% 5.5% 6.3% 6.6% 4.2% 6.4% 6.2% 5.9% 6.4% 0.0% *2017, 2018, 2019: Forecast 40

41 Growth and profitability projections - Selected sectors Aggregate Growth ( ) 13.9% Growth of ROS 12.2% 7.3% 7.8% 7.9% 5.6% 3.7% 2.5% 2.5% 2.4% 0.0% -0.3% *2017, 2018, 2019: Forecast 41

42 DISCLAIMER The present document has been elaborated by a research team guided by Professor Carmine Garzia of The University of Gastronomic Sciences on the basis of public information. Any views or opinions presented in this document are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the University of Gastronomic Sciences Carmine Garzia and The University of Gastronomic Sciences, Piazza Vittorio Emanuele 9, Pollenzo, Bra (CN). The contents of this document cannot be reproduced without prior permission of the author and copyright owners For further information please visit: 42