An insight into the viticulture sector

Transcription

1 An insight into the viticulture sector Business Analysis Pio De Gregorio Head Luca Schianchi Senior analyst Brescia, 12 June 2015

2 World production of wine Billion of liters World production 26,8 26,9 27,2 26,4 26,7 25,8 29,1 27,9 Change% 0,37% 1,12% -2,94% 1,14% -3,37% 12,79% -4,12% World production in 2014 = 27,9 billion liters (-4,1% vs 2013) 2 Business Analysis

3 Wold consumption of wine Billion of liters World consumption in 2014 = 24 billion liters World consumption 25,2 24,8 24,0 24,0 24,2 24,2 24,2 24,0 Change% 2,86% -1,59% -3,23% 0,00% 0,83% 0,00% 0,00% -0,83% (-0.24% vs 2013) 50% of world consumption is concentrated in just 5 countries: France 12% USA 12% Italy 9% Germany 9% China 7% 3 Business Analysis

4 Wine consumption per capita and trends Per capita wine consuption Per capita wine consumption is high in Europe, Australia and Argentina. Hence, these markets are mature. In other countries wine consumption is still low and therefore potential growth is high. Litre per capita Consumption trend in the latest 25 years Countries where wine consumption has been traditionally high are showing a costant negative trend in per capita consumption. However, growth in other countries is keeping world consumption stable. More diversified market offers even more opportunities for wine producers. Decrease Growth up +50% Growth from +50% to +100% Growth from +100% to +150% Growth from +150% 4 Business Analysis

5 World trade flows Volume trade flows have been fairly stable in the last few years. However, trade flows in value have grown costantly since 2009 as a result of the rise in the average price per liter. 5 Business Analysis Source:OIV - ISMEA SERVIZI - FEDERVINI

6 Italian wine exports Volume (billion of litres) Production 4,78 4,71 4,09 4,40 4,35 4,46 4,06 3,82 4,51 4,10 Year on Year -1,46% -13,16% 7,58% -1,14% 2,53% -8,97% -5,91% 18,06% -9,09% - North 2,09 1,98 1,49 1,79 1,63 1,75 1,45 1,39 1,70 1,54 Year on Year -5,26% -24,75% 20,13% -8,94% 7,36% -17,14% -4,14% 22,30% -9,41% - Centre 0,73 0,74 0,64 0,63 0,61 0,59 0,53 0,50 0,60 0,53 Year on Year 1,37% -13,51% -1,56% -3,17% -3,28% -10,17% -5,66% 20,00% -11,67% - South 1,96 1,99 1,96 1,98 2,11 2,12 2,08 1,93 2,21 2,03 Year on Year 1,53% -1,51% 1,02% 6,57% 0,47% -1,89% -7,21% 14,51% -8,14% Export 1,57 1,84 1,88 1,81 1,95 2,15 2,32 2,12 2,03 2,04 Year on Year 17,20% 2,17% -3,72% 7,73% 10,26% 7,91% -8,62% -4,25% 0,49% Export leaning (Export/Production) 32,85% 39,07% 45,97% 41,14% 44,83% 48,21% 57,14% 55,50% 45,01% 49,76% Year on Year 18,94% 17,66% -10,51% 8,97% 7,54% 18,54% -2,88% -18,90% 10,54% In the last years around 50% of the Italian wine production has been exported. This trend is set to continue as a result of the opening of new markets, further development of existing markets and for the on-going reduction of domestic consumption. 6 Business Analysis

7 Italia wine exports: volume and value Over the last ten years, Italian wine exports have grown both in volume and value. 7 Business Analysis

8 Italian wine exports: main markets hl Delta Thousand of Euro Delta USA ,66% USA ,37% Germany ,16% Germany ,43% UK ,71% UK ,12% Switzerland ,03% Switzerland ,78% Canada ,71% Canada ,52% Japan ,20% Japan ,98% Sweden ,53% Sweden ,90% Denmark ,63% Denmark ,86% France ,82% France ,34% Volu ume Netherland ,13% Russia ,50% Belgium ,08% Austria ,34% Norway ,16% Val lue Netherland ,45% Russia ,41% Belgium ,53% Austria ,90% Norway ,58% China ,72% China ,25% Spain ,39% Spain ,61% Latvia ,60% Latvia ,80% Australia ,21% Australia ,99% Poland ,74% Poland ,78% Czech Republic ,39% Czech Republic ,75% Ireland ,42% Ireland ,23% Brazil ,49% Brazil ,73% Others ,18% Others ,59% Total ,15% Total ,39% 8 Business Analysis

9 Italian wine exports: main product types Volu ume hl Delta Bulk >2l ,14% - Common ,66% - Dop ,34% - Igp ,84% - Specialties ,68% - Other Dop/Igp ,53% Bottle <2l ,07% - Common ,32% - Dop ,24% - Igp ,31% - Specialties ,20% - Other Dop/Igp ,34% Fizzy Wine ,93% Sparkling ,21% Grape Must ,15% Total ,84% Va alue Thousand of Euro Delta Bulk >2l ,72% - Common ,31% - Dop ,58% - Igp ,54% - Specialties ,49% - Other Dop/Igp ,47% Bottle <2l ,04% - Common ,93% - Dop ,78% - Igp ,70% - Specialties ,64% - Other Dop/Igp ,16% Fizzy Wine ,31% Sparkling ,21% Grape Must ,10% Total ,39% 9 Business Analysis

10 Main trends for the Italian wine sector Consensus forecasts indicate further growth for exports of DOP, IGT and sparkling wines in both production and value. Production will focus even more on quality, as this is considered the main competitive asset to gain market share abroad. On the other hand, production of basic wine will be further reduced as it is unprofitable. Target markets for exports are United States, Germany and UK, but high potential is seen particularly for China, India and Australia. More investment will be needed to develop brands at international level. In this regard most Italian wine companies find an hurdle in their sizes, tipically very small compared to international players. 10 Business Analysis Source: Business Analysis UBI Banca

11