Wine industry survey. Mediobanca Research Department. Milan, 7 April 2017

Transcription

1 Wine industry survey Mediobanca Research Department Milan, 7 April 2017

2 Leading wine-makers: Italian sales and exports (index 2011=100) P Sales generated in Italy Exports 2

3 Leading wine-makers and manufacturing companies: net sales (index 2011=100) P Wine industry Manufacturing industry 3

4 Analysis by company and product type in pre-closing 2016P figures (% chg. in sales 2016P/2015) Limited companies Co-operatives Spumanti Other wines Total sales Exports 4

5 Percentages of companies by class of change in turnover vs previous edition ( F) and changes in sales P 2017F =< -10% from -5 to -9.99% from to -4.99% >= +10% from 5 to 9.99% from 0 to 4.99% % change in sales 5

6 Exports by geographies in 2016P (% share of turnover and chg. vs 2016P/2015) EU countries North America Asia and Australia Central and South America Rest of the world % division in 2016P % chg. 2016P/2015 6

7 Top 30 Italian wine-makers by turnover ( P) Companies Registered office Total sales % change 2016/2015 m Rank 2015 Rank m Export as a % of 2016 sales % change 2016/2015 Net profit (loss) as a % of 2015 sales Net profit (loss) as a % of 2016 sales No. of bottles produced in 2016 CANTINE RIUNITE & CIV ( ) Campegine (Re) ,629,998 of which: GIV - GRUPPO ITALIANO VINI ( ) Bardolino (Vr) ,170,000 of which: CANTINE RIUNITE & CIV (*) Campegine (Re) ,459,998 PALAZZO ANTINORI ( ) Florence ,000,000 CASA VINICOLA ZONIN ( ) Gambellara (Vi) ,200,000 MEZZACORONA ( ) (*) (+) Mezzocorona (Tn) n.a. 5 n.a n.a ,930,000 Gruppo CAMPARI (wine division) ( ) Milan n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. CAVIT CANTINA VITICOLTORI ( ) (*) Ravina (Tn) n.a. FRATELLI MARTINI SECONDO LUIGI Cossano Belbo (Cn) , ,000,000 CASA VINICOLA BOTTER CARLO & C. Fossalta di Piave (Ve) ,626,000 IWB - ITALIAN WINE BRANDS ( ) (-) Milan ,000,000 Mixed ENOITALIA Calmasino di Bardolino (Vr) n.a. 88,318,528 Gruppo SANTA MARGHERITA ( ) Fossalta di Portogruaro (Ve) ,830,036 GRUPPO CEVICO ( ) (*) Lugo (Ra) ,323,229 CANTINA SOCIALE Co-operative DI SOAVE ( ) (*) Soave (Vr) ,000,000 COLLIS VENETO WINE GROUP ( ) (*) Monteforte D'Alpone (Vr) ,000,000 SCHENK ITALIA ( ) Ora (Bz) ,300,000 Ownership structure Cooperative CAVIRO ( ) Faenza (Ra) ,957,345 (^) Cooperative Familyowned Familyowned Cooperative Familyowned Cooperative Familyowned Familyowned Familyowned Familyowned Cooperative Cooperative Cooperative non-italianowned cont. 7

8 Top 30 Italian wine-makers by turnover ( P) cont. Companies Registered office Total sales % change 2016/2015 m Rank 2015 Rank m Export as a % of 2016 sales % change 2016/2015 Net profit (loss) as a % of 2015 sales Net profit (loss) as a % of 2016 sales No. of bottles produced in 2016 Ownership structure COMPAGNIA DE' FRESCOBALDI ( ) Florence ,267,721 Family-owned MONDODELVINO ( ) Forlì ,458,366 Mixed RUFFINO ( ) (*) Pontassieve (Fi) ,091,878 LUNELLI ( ) Ravina (Tn) n.a. n.a. Family-owned LA VIS ( ) (*) (=) Lavis (Tn) n.a. Co-operative CONTRI SPUMANTI Cazzano Di Tramigna (Vr) ,067,000 Mixed LA MARCA VINI E SPUMANTI Oderzo (Tv) ,0 35,000,000 Co-operative VILLA SANDI Crocetta Del Montello (Tv) ,200,000 Family-owned Gruppo BANFI ( ) Montalcino (Si) ,818,000 QUARGENTAN Roncà (Vr) 68 n.a. n.a. 26 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.3 n.a. n.a. Family-owned MIONETTO Valdobbiadene (Tv) n.a. VIVO CANTINE ( ) (*) Salgareda (Tv) ,787,250 Co-operative F.LLI GANCIA & C. Canelli (At) ,055,439 MASI AGRICOLA ( ) (') S. Ambrogio Di Valpolicella (Vr) n.a. Family-owned VS - VINICOLA SERENA Conegliano (Tv) 56 n.a. n.a. 31 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 2.4 n.a. n.a. Family-owned Gruppo TERRA MORETTI ($) Erbusco (Bs) n.a. n.a. 25 n.a. n.a. n.a , Family-owned non-italianowned non-italianowned non-italianowned non-italianowned ( ) Consolidated financial data. (*) The financial year ends on 31 July for Cantine Riunite & Civ, Mezzacorona, Gruppo Cevico, Collis Veneto Wine Group and Cantine Brusa, on 31 May for Cavit, on 30 June for Cantina Sociale Cooperativa di Soave and La Vis, on 28 February for Ruffino, on 31 August for Vivo Cantine. (^) Excluding wine sold in cartons, boxes and barrels. (+) 2016 data refer to 11 months of operation (financial years ended on 31 August 2015 and on 31 July 2016). ( ) Only part of the wine division's data are included in the aggregate. The Group produces and sells «Riccadonna», «Cinzano» (vermouth and spumanti), «Liebfraumilch» as well as spumanti under the «Mondoro» brand name. (-) Set up on 27 November 2014 and listed on the stock market (AIM) since 29 January 2015, with a free float of approx. 60%. The group comprises the companies Giordano Vini and Provinco Italia. (=) Under compulsory administration from 8 June 2015 al 16 April (') Listed on the stock market (AIM) since 30 June ( ) Data taken from the aggregate sales of the group s wine-making companies. Including the companies acquired from the Campari group at year-end 2016 would lead to combined turnover as at end-2015 of more than 60m, ranking the Moretti group among the top thirty sector operators. Source: financial statements and individual companies. 8

9 Indicators of economic performance, financial solidity and production efficiency in ( ) Consolidated financial data. z-score 9

10 2017 estimates: estimated changes (as % of those interviewed) in total sales in exports from 0% to +4.99% 46.9 from -0.01% to -4.99% 7.4 from -5% to -9.99% 0.0 =<-10% 2.5 from 0% to +4.99% 44.3 from -0.01% to -4.99% 5.1 from -5% to -9.99% 1.3 =<-10% 1.3 >=+10% 17.3 >=+10% 24.0 from +5% to +9.99% 25.9 from +5% to +9.99%

11 Profitability of wine (as %, ) ROI ROE NOM/VA 11

12 Profitability of wine and beverages (as %, ) ROI (wine) ROI (beverages) ROE (wine) ROE (beverages) 12

13 ROE by region (as %, 2015) Sicilia Friuli V.G. Piedmont Lombardy Emilia-Romagna Trentino-Alto Adige Tuscany Veneto 13

14 Shareholders' portfolios ( m based on 2015 net equity) Co-operatives 859 Non-Italian 375 Individuals: approx. 3.1bn families (directly or via companies): approx. 2.2bn Financial investors 400 Individuals 1,372 Others 76 Stock Market 66 Companies

15 Nine Italian companies with sales over 150m (turnover 2015) 2,380 2,221 1, * Champagne ** Wine Division 15

16 Exports (as % of 2015 sales; companies with sales of over 150m)

17 Industrial margins (EBIT/sales, as %; excluding co-operatives for Italy) Non-Italian Italian 17

18 End-markets (as % of 2015 sales) non-italian companies Italian companies North America 58.6% Europe 16.4% Central and South America 4.3% Rest of the world 7.6% Europe 51.8% Central and South America 1.3% Rest of the world 8.8% Asia and Australia 3.9% Asia and Australia 13.1% North America 34.2% 18

19 Vineyards owned by large producers (as % of total surface area, equal to 78,287 hectares) Europe 10.1% Chile 20.6% New Zealand 5.2% South Africa 6.7% Canada 1.4% United States 12.6% Australia 14.9% Argentina 2.9% China 25.6% 19

20 Largest vineyards worldwide (data in hectares) E. & J. Gallo Winery (US) 9,308 Viña Concha y Toro (CL) 10,804 Constellation Brands (USA) 8,781 Grupo Peñaflor (AR) 6,104 Treasury Wine Estates (AU) 13,425 Pernod Ricard (FR) 5,611 Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine (CN) 20,055 20

21 Mediobanca index of listed wine companies (total return to 14 March 2017, Jan. 2001=100) Australia Chile China France North America Spain Other countries World (local currency) MB wines index National stock market 21

22 Stock market multiples (at end-date for 2015 financial statements) China Other countries North America Chile Spain France Australia P/BV P/E 22

23 23 Mediobanca Research Department Foro Buonaparte 10, Milan, Italy