Wine industry survey. Mediobanca Research Department

Transcription

1 Wine industry survey Mediobanca Research Department Milan, 20 March 2015

2 Leading wine-makers: Italian sales and exports (index 2009=100) P Sales generated in Italy Exports 2

3 Leading wine-makers and manufacturing companies: net sales (index 2009=100) P Wine industry Manufacturing industry 3

4 Analysis by company and product type in pre-closing 2014P figures (% chg. in sales 2014P/2013) Limited companies Co-operatives Spumanti Other wines Totale Export 4

5 Percentages of companies by class of change in turnover vs previous edition ( F) and changes in sales =< -10% from -5 to -9.99% from to -4.99% >= +10% from 5 to 9.99% from 0 to 4.99% % change in sales P 2015F 5

6 Exports by geographies in 2014P (% share of turnover and chg. vs 2014P/2013) EU countries North America Asia and Australia Central and South America Rest of the world % division in 2014P % chg. 2014P/2013 6

7 Top 25 Italian wine-makers by turnover ( P) Total sales Export Net profit (loss) Registered office % change Rank Rank 2014 as a % of % change as a % of m 2014/ m 2014 sales 2014/ sales No. of bottles Ownership produced in 2014 structure CANTINE RIUNITE & CIV ( ) Campegine (Re) ,038,760 Co-operative of which: GIV - GRUPPO ITALIANO VINI ( ) Bardolino (Vr) ,400,000 of which: CANTINE RIUNITE & CIV (*) Campegine (Re) ,638,760 CAVIRO ( ) Faenza (Ra) ,560,181 (^) Co-operative Gruppo CAMPARI (wines division) ( ) Milan n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Family-owned PALAZZO ANTINORI ( ) Florence ,749,000 Family-owned MEZZACORONA ( ) (*) Mezzocorona (Tn) ,000,000 Co-operative FRATELLI MARTINI SECONDO LUIGI Cossano Belbo (Cn) n.a. Family-owned CASA VINICOLA ZONIN ( ) Gambellara (Vi) ,000,000 Family-owned CAVIT CANTINA VITICOLTORI (*) Ravina (Tn) n.a. Co-operative CASA VINICOLA BOTTER CARLO & C. Fossalta di Piave (Ve) ,201,208 Family-owned ENOITALIA Calmasino di Bardolino (Vr) n.a. 81,234,000 Family-owned GRUPPO CEVICO ( ) (*) Lugo (Ra) ,369,812 Co-operative CANTINA SOCIALE COOPERATIVA DI SOAVE ( ) (*) Soave (Vr) ,000,000 Co-operative Gruppo SANTA MARGHERITA ( ) Fossalta di Portogruaro (Ve) ,545,620 Family-owned GIORDANO VINI Diano D'Alba (Cn) n.a. Mixed CONTRI SPUMANTI Cazzano Di Tramigna (Vr) n.a. 74,540,000 Family-owned CANTINE BRUSA (*) Dozza (Bo) n.a. Family-owned CANTINE TURRINI VALDO & FIGLIO Riolo Terme (Ra) 85 n.a. n.a. 17 n.d. n.a. n.a. n.a. 3.5 n.a. n.a. Family-owned LA VIS ( ) (*) Lavis (Tn) n.a. Co-operative COMPAGNIA DE' FRESCOBALDI ( ) Florence ,079,600 Family-owned SCHENK ITALIA Ora (Bz) ,953,000 non-italian-owned COLLIS VENETO WINE GROUP (*) Monteforte D'Alpone (Vr) n.a. Co-operative RUFFINO ( ) (*) Pontassieve (Fi) ,101,650 non-italian-owned MGM MONDO DEL VINO Forlì ,769,406 Mixed Gruppo BANFI ( ) Montalcino (Si) ,400,000 non-italian-owned MASI AGRICOLA ( ) S. Ambrogio Di Valpolicella (Vr) ,760,000 Family-owned Net profit (loss) as a % of 2014 sales ( ) Consolidated financial data. (*) The financial year ends on 31 July for Cantine Riunite & Civ, Gruppo Cevico, Collis Veneto Wine Group and Cantine Brusa, on 31 May for Cavit, on 31 August for Mezzacorona, on 30 June for Cantina Sociale Cooperativa di Soave and La Vis, on 28 February for Ruffino. (^) Excluding wine sold in cartons, boxes and barrels. ( ) Only part of the wine division's data are included in the aggregate. The Group produces and sells «Riccadonna», «Cinzano» (vermouth and spumanti) as well as spumanti under the «M ondoro» and «Odessa» brand names. The Group also produces and sells «Sella & Mosca», «Enrico Serafino», «Teruzzi & Puthod», «Château Lamargue» and «Liebfraumilch» branded products. Source: financial statements and individual companies. 7

8 Indicators of economic performance, financial solidity and production efficiency in z-score 8

9 2015 estimates: estimated changes (as % of those interviewed) in total sales in exports from 0% to +4.99% 50.0% from -0.01% to -4.99% 13.2% from -5% to -9.99% 1.5% =<-10% 3.0% >=+10% 8.8% from 0% to +4.99% 52.2% from -0.01% to -4.99% 6.0% from -5% to -9.99% 3.0% =<-10% 1.5% >=+10% 13.4% from +5% to +9.99% 23.5% from +5% to +9.99% 23.9% 9

10 Profitability of wine (as %, ) ROI ROE NOM/VA 10

11 Profitability of wine and beverages (as %, ) ROE (beverages) ROE (wine) ROI (beverages) ROI (wine) 11

12 ROE by region (as %, 2013) Piedmont Friuli V.G. Sicily Trentino-Alto Adige Lombardy Emilia- Romagna Tuscany Veneto 12

13 Shareholders' portfolios ( m based on 2013 net equity) Co-operatives 736 Non-Italian 299 Individuals: approx. 2.5bn families (directly or via companies): approx. 1.7bn Financial investors 385 Individuals 1,097 Others 72 Companies

14 Eight Italian companies with sales over 150m (turnover 2013) 3,530 1,951 1, * Champagne ** Wine Division 14

15 Exports (as % of 2013 sales; companies with sales of over 150m)

16 Industrial margins (EBIT/sales, as %; excluding co-operatives for Italy) Non-Italian Italian 16

17 End-markets (as % of 2013 sales) non-italian companies Italian companies North America 49.5% Europe 20.7% Central and South America 5.3% Rest of the world 11.0% Europe 51.1% Central and South America 1.3% Rest of the world 11.9% Asia and Australia 4.3% Asia and Australia 13.5% North America 31.4% 17

18 Vineyards owned by large producers (as % of total surface area, equal to 72,700 hectares) Chile 22.1% Europe 11.0% New Zealand 2.6% South Africa 7.2% Canada 1.5% Australia 12.5% United States 12.4% Argentina 3.2% China 27.5% 18

19 Largest vineyards worldwide (data in hectares) Constellation Brands (USA) 8,094 Viña Concha y Toro (CL) 10,703 Grupo Peñaflor (AR) 6,104 E. & J. Gallo Winery (US) 6,475 Treasury Wine Estates (AU) 12,778 Pernod Ricard (FR) 5,956 Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine (CN) 20,000 19

20 Mediobanca index of listed wine companies (total return to 9 March 2015, Jan. 2001=100) Australia Chile China France North America Spain Other countries World (local currency) MB wines index National stock market 20

21 Stock market multiples (at end-date for 2013 financial statements) neg. China Other countries North America Chile Spain France Australia P/BV P/E 21

22 Mediobanca Research Department Foro Buonaparte 10, Milan, Italy