Capital Markets Perspective

Transcription

1 INTERNATIONAL BANKING FORUM 2015 Brescia, June 2015 Micaela Capelli Capital Markets UBI><Banca

2 Italian Winemaking Sector at a Glance The Top Line: Italy is the second wine producer in the world and ranks first i.t.o. export Total Sales Italy Sales 11.9 bn/ (13.3 bn/usd) Export Sales % Export Sales 5 bn/ (5.6 bn/usd) Source: Mediobanca Study, 2014 Base 2014=100 Italian food companies (excl winemakers) Italian winemakers 2

3 Italian Winemaking Sector at a Glance Financial Structure: a capital-intensive business (integrated structure), balanced financial structure, M/L debt vastly dedicated to NWC financing, but still creating value ROI Return on Investment Debt / Net Invested Capital Inventory / Net Fixed Assets EBITDA / Interest Expense (multiple) Source: Mediobanca Study, figures as % except where stated Italian food companies (excl winemakers) Italian winemakers 3

4 Italian Winemaking Sector at a Glance Ownership and presence in the financial markets: Family owned businesses and mutualistic companies, a fragmented landscape still heavily underrepresented in the capital markets environment Italian Wine Companies Sales o/w export Mln Mln Mln % Shareholding 1 Cantine Riunite & Civ 536,0 535,0 338,0 63,1% Cooperativa 2 Caviro 314,0 321,0 93,0 29,6% Cooperativa 3 Gruppo Campari (divisione vino) 209,0 228,0 n.d. n.d. Family owned 4 P. Antinori 180,0 172,0 125,0 69,4% Family owned 5 Mezzacorona 171,0 163,0 99,0 57,9% Cooperativa 6 F.lli Martini Secondo Luigi 160,0 157,0 144,0 90,0% Family owned 7 Casa Vinicola Zonin 160,0 154,0 126,0 78,8% Family owned 8 Cavit Cantina Viticoltori 158,0 153,0 125,0 79,1% Cooperativa 9 Casa Vinicola Botter Carlo & C 136,0 136,0 132,0 97,1% Family owned 10 Enoitalia 128,0 128,0 95,0 74,2% Family owned 11 Gruppo Santa Margherita 110,0 102,0 69,0 62,7% Family owned 12 Gruppo Cevico 107,0 117,0 20,0 18,7% Cooperativa 13 Cantina Sociale Cooperativa di Soave 102,0 103,0 46,0 45,1% Cooperativa 14 Giordano Vini 101,0 101,0 51,0 50,5% Mixed 15 La Vis 89,0 85,0 70,0 78,7% Cooperativa 16 Compagnia De' Frescobaldi 86,0 84,0 54,0 62,8% Family owned 17 Contri Spumanti 82,0 92,0 34,0 41,5% Family owned 18 Schenk Italia 82,0 80,0 57,0 69,5% Foreign 19 Ruffino 81,0 75,0 75,0 92,6% Foreign 20 Collis Veneto Wine Group 75,0 78,0 7,0 9,3% Cooperativa 21 MGM Mondo del vino 73,0 66,0 50,0 68,5% Mixed 22 Cantine Brusa 70,0 92,0 25,0 35,7% Family owned 23 Gruppo Banfi 68,0 66,0 41,0 60,3% Foreign 24 Masi Agricola 60,0 65,0 54,0 90,0% Family owned 25 Cantine Turrini Valdo & figlio n.d. 85,0 n.d. n.d. Family owned n) Slaes ( /mln Cantine Riunite & Civ Caviro F.lli Martini Secondo Luigi 200 Mezzacorona P. Antinori Cavit Casa Vinicola Zonin Botter Carlo & C 100 Giordano Vini Enoitalia Gruppo Santa La Vis Margherita Masi Agricola 0 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% EBIT/value added Cantine Turrini Valdo & figlio Source: Mediobanca Study,

5 Drivers of Premium Valuations - Consumption is going far from the producers From Local to global Brand strategy - Premiumization and luxury Asian markets (+ Chinese travellers China domestic market) Female consumption - Meal occasion Diversification beer and spirits BRAND RECOGNITION MARGIN EXPANSION POTENTIAL SUCCESSFUL BUSINESS MODEL EXTENSIVE DISTRIBUTION NETWORK INTERNATIONAL PRESENCE (USA, ASIA, FAR EAST, AFRICA) 5

6 Listed Companies Overview Name Product Country Curr Mkt Cap /mln Sales (CY) /mln EBITDA (CY) /mln EBIT (CY) /mln Net Debt /mln P/E 5yrs avg P/E EV/EBITDA last 12m EV/Sales last 12m EV/Sales (estimate) EV/BE EBITDA CY EV/IC ROIC % ROE % Sales Growth 1 yr % ANHEUSER-BUSCH INBEV NV beer BELGIUM EUR ,6x 21,3x 12,3x 4,9x 5,2x 12,9x 2,5x 14,6 18,4 9,0 6,5 SABMILLER PLC beer BRITAIN GBp ,7x 25,1x 17,6x 5,9x 4,1x 15,6x 2,8x 9,9 13,3-1,0-0,3 DIAGEO PLC spirits BRITAIN GBp ,0x 24,1x 16,5x 5,7x 5,4x 16,4x 3,4x 14,2 27,4-9,2 1,4 KWEICHOW MOUTAI CO LTD-A spirits CHINA CNY ,3x 18 n/a 6,6x 7,9x 11,1x 4,6x 41,2 30,8 4,1 24,1 HEINEKEN NV beer NETHERLANDS EUR ,1x 25,4x 10,9x 2,4x 2,5x 10,8x 2,2x 10,9 12,7 0,3 4,0 GRUPO MODELO S.A.B.-SER C beer MEXICO MXN ,0x 81,3x 77,4x 10,6x 4,8x 12,2x 3,5x 1,4 5,2-62,6-21,5 PERNOD RICARD SA wine&spirits FRANCE EUR ,9x 28,5x 16,6x 4,2x 4,3x 14,7x 1,7x 7,9 8,1-7,3 1,5 CONSTELLATION BRANDS INC-A wine UNITED STATES USD ,7x 29,0x 17,3x 4,9x 4,8x 15,3x 2,4x 11,9 15,6 23,8 34,4 BROWN-FORMAN CORP-CLASS B wine&spirits UNITED STATES USD ,7x 30,4x 18,8x 3,9x 6,9x 19,2x 8,2x 32,6 34,7 4,8 4,8 JIANGSU YANGHE BREWERY -A wine&spirits CHINA CNY ,2x 24 n/a 5,5x 6,7x 15,2x 5,0x 27,2 22,9-2,4 6,8 WULIANGYE YIBIN CO LTD-A spirits CHINA CNY ,6x 21 n/a 3,3x 4,1x 10,4x 2,1x 16,6 13,5-14,8 3,5 ASAHI GROUP HOLDINGS LTD beer JAPAN JPY ,1x 23,6x 11,1x 1,2x 1,3x 11,6x 2,3x 9,0 9,5 4,2 6,9 CARLSBERG AS-B beer DENMARK DKK ,6x 21,1x 10,1x 2,0x 2,1x 10,5x 1,4x 8,5 7,5 0,2 0,5 THAI BEVERAGE PCL spirits THAILAND SGD ,9x 21,1x 17,6x 3,0x 2,9x 16,7x 4,5x 14,6 21,6 4,3 7,6 MOLSON COORS BREWING CO -B beer UNITED STATES USD ,9x 19,9x 18,2x 4,3x 4,5x 12,5x 1,7x 5,2 5,4-1,4 5,8 KIRIN HOLDINGS CO LTD beer JAPAN JPY ,1x 46,1x 9,7x 1,1x 1,2x 10,0x 1,6x 5,4 3,6-2,6 2,0 TSINGTAO BREWERY CO LTD-A beer CHINA CNY n/a ,1x 37,3x 17,8x 1,9x 1,9x 17,7x 3,6x 12,3 12,6 3,1 8,4 NIGERIAN BREWERIES PLC beer NIGERIA NGN ,7x 26 n/a 4,2x 3,9x 11,9x 5,7x 30,6 28,0-0,8 8,4 UNION CERV PERU BACK&JOHNS-I beer PERU PEN ,8x 1,8x 1,2x 0,5x n/a n/a 7,7x 59,3 55,0 4,2 5,2 ANADOLU EFES BIRACILIK VE beer TURKEY TRY n/a n/a 12,4x 2,1x 2,0x 11,8x 1,4x 5,1-7,3 9,6 37,7 DAVIDE CAMPARI-MILANO SPA wine&spirits ITALY EUR ,4x 30,4x 11,9x 2,6x 2,9x 13,3x 1,8x 10,0 8,7 2,4 7,1 REMY COINTREAU spirits FRANCE EUR ,3x 54,5x 23,8x 3,4x 3,7x 21,0x 2,5x 7,1 5,2-13,6 5,3 EAST AFRICAN BREWERIES LTD beer KENYA KES ,7x 37 n/a 4,3x 4,2x 13,3x 7,8x 32,4 62,9 3,8 11,3 TREASURY WINE ESTATES LTD wine AUSTRALIA AUD n/a n/a 12,8x 1,9x 1,9x 12,0x 1,1x 5,2-5,4 3,6 7,6 VINA CONCHA Y TORO SA wine CHILE CLP ,8x 21,2x 13,8x 2,0x 1,7x 11,2x 1,6x 8,1 9,1 22,6 11,6 C&C GROUP PLC other spirits IRELAND EUR n/a n/a n/a 2,2x 1,9x 9,6x 1,2x -5,1-10,0 10,3 13,2 GRUPA ZYWIEC SA beer POLAND PLN ,4x 19,7x 11,7x 1,6x n/a n/a 5,2x 15,7 70,0-10,5-4,9 LAURENT-PERRIER GROUP champagne FRANCE EUR ,5x 21,6x 15,3x 3,2x 3,4x 15,8x 1,3x 6,3 7,6 5,1 2,0 BARON DE LEY wine SPAIN EUR ,3x 14,4x 12,3x 4,3x 4,8x 13,4x 2,1x 6,8 13,5 5,4 1,8 LANSON-BCC champagne FRANCE EUR ,2x 16,1x 15,6x 2,6x 2,6x 17,6x 1,4x 5,1 8,1-3,7-3,6 VRANKEN - POMMERY MONOPOLE champagne FRANCE EUR ,1x 9,3x 21,9x 2,8x 2,9x 21,8x 1,1x 2,7 6,5 2,5-1,6 ITALIAN WINE BRANDS SPA wine ITALY EUR n/a n/a 10 n/a n/a 0,7x 7,0x 0,9x n/a n/a n/a n/a Avg Sales Growth 3 yrs % Source: Bloomberg, June 10,

7 Focus on Winemakers COMPANIES COUNTRY MAIN ACTIVITIES Pernod Ricard SA FRANCE Produces wine and spirits. Sells worldwide. Constellation Brands, Inc. USA Produces and sells alcoholic beverages in North America, Europe, Australia and New Zealand. The brand portfolio includes wines, imported beer and distilled alcohol. Davide Campari ITALY Produces wine and spirits. Sells worldwide. Treasury Wine Estates Limited AUSTRALIA Founded in 2010, headquartered in Southbank, Victoria - Australia. Dealing with production, sale and distribution of wine internationally. Vina Concha Y Toro S.A. CHILE Produces premium wines and champagne in Chile and Argentina, exporting world-wide. (other products fruit and bottled water) Laurent-Perrier SA FRANCE Produces and sells champagne worldwide. Brands include Laurent-Perrier, de Castellane, Salon and Delamotte. Baron de Ley, S.A. SPAIN Produces and sells premium Rioja for both domestic and international markets. Brands include Barón de Ley, Coto de Imaz, Casa Mayor. (other products: premium canned food) Lanson-BCC FRANCE Produces and sells champagne. Vranken-Pommery FRANCE Produces and sells champagne. The Company's houses include Vranken, Charles Lafitte and Heidsieck & Co. Monopole. Italian Wine Brands ITALY Sells and distributes wine worldwide. Source: UBIBanca, company profiles 7

8 Focus on Winemakers Market Multiples % 35,0 30,0 25,0 20,0 15,0 10,0 5,0 25,4 22,9 28,4 24,9 21,6 19,1 13,4 8,6 EBITDA MARGIN % EBIT MARGIN % 14,8 10,8 19,2 17,2 34,9 23,7 18,1 14,2 13,5 10,1 20,0 15,0 10,0 5,0 7,9 8,1 11,9 15,6 10,0 ROIC % ROE % 8,7 8,1 9,1 5,2 6,3 7,6 6,8 13,5 5,1 8,1 2,7 6,5 0,0 0,0 Multiples 25,0x 20,0x 15,0x 10,0x 5,0x 14,7x 15,3x 13,3x 12,0x EV/EBITDA 11,2x 15,8x 13,4x 17,6x 21,8x 35,0x 30,0x 25,0x 20,0x 15,0x 10,0x 5,0x 28,5x 29,0x 30,4x P/E 21,2x 21,6x 14,4x 16,1x 9,3x Source: Bloomberg 8

9 Market Performance Mediobanca world index of wine companies includes 49 listed stocks for 44 issuers: 6 from France, 6 China, 4 Chile, 4 Spain, 3 Australia, 2 Germany, 2 New Zealand, 2 Greece, 2 Bulgaria, 2 Great Britain, 1 from Southafrica, Austria, Poland, Argentina, Lithuania, Russia and Italy. MSCI WORLD - TR INDEX FOR THE LOCAL EXCHANGES (LOCAL CURR) INDEX OF WORLD WINE COMPANIES TR (LOCAL CURR) DEFLATED INDEX OF WORLD WINE COMPANIES TR (LOCAL CURR) Source: Mediobanca Study,

10 Open Issues LEADERSHIP MODELS OWNERSHIP MODELS BUSINESS MODELS INTERNATIONAL PRESENCE SIZE and CONSOLIDATION 10

11 THANK YOU! Micaela Capelli Capital Markets Corso Europa MILANO (ITALY) 11