United Way of Northern Shenandoah Valley Community Needs Update:

Transcription

1 United Way of Northern Shenandoah Valley Community Needs Update: A report of conditions, trends and human service priorities impacting the critical needs of the people of the Northern Shenandoah Valley March /31/14 United Way of Northern Shenandoah Valley In partnership with Lord Fairfax Community College

2 2014 Progress Report Outline Target Needs & Indicators/Measures Local demographic changes/trends 2

3 Target Needs & Indicators/Measures Education/Achieving Potential Improve on time graduation & advanced learning Income/Financial Stability Decrease number of financially unstable families Health/Risk Behaviors Reduce the incidence & prevalence of risk behaviors 3

4 Education/Achieving Potential Measures: Increase public school on time graduation rates from 86.8% to 90.0% Decrease % of children entering kindergarten needing remedial literacy assistance Increase % of area students participating in postsecondary education 4

5 Education: Increase on time graduation rates % 97% 96% 98% 96% 95% 92% 93% 90% 85% 86% 90% 84% 89% 90% 83% 89% 87% 80% 75% Clarke Frederick Page Shenandoah Warren Winchester NSVPD Source: VA Dept. of Education High School Graduation Cohort Reports for 2009 and

6 Education: Decrease % kindergarten needing remedial literacy assistance 40% 35% 30% 37% 31% 25% 20% 15% 10% 12% 10% 17% 17% 18% 18% 16% 15% 14% 13% 5% 0% Clarke Frederick Page Shenandoah Warren Winchester Source: Kids Count Data Center PALS data collected by Virginia for &

7 Education: Increase postsecondary participation 80% 75% 70% 60% 67% 63% 64% 65% 61% 53% 53% 53% 61% 61% 60% 50% 40% 42% 37% 30% 20% 10% 0% Clarke Frederick Page Shenandoah Warren Winchester NSVPD Source: VA Dept. of Education High School Graduates Postsecondary Enrollment Reports for cohort years 2009 &

8 Income/Financial Stability Measure: Decrease % of families earning less than $25K from 18.3% to 15.0%. 8

9 Income: % Family households earning < $25,000 30% 25% 20% 28% 27% 22% 25% 21% 21% 24% 27% 20% 20% 15% 15% 12% 16% 15% 10% 5% 0% Clarke Frederick Page Shenandoah Warren Winchester NSVPD 2009 Est Est. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, and American Community Survey multi year estimates 9

10 Health/Risk Behaviors Reduce incidence & prevalence of health risk behaviors to above the 50% ranking for Adult smoking Diet and exercise Alcohol use Sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) Access to care 10

11 Health: VA County Risk Rankings Adult smoking 1 Above 50% Clarke Frederick Page Shenandoah Warren Winchester Source: County Health Rankings & Roadmaps data for 2010 &

12 Health: Context: % Adult smoking 40% 35% 34% 30% 25% 20% 19% 22% 27% 22% 21% 24% 24% 20% 18% 15% 10% 5% 0% Clarke Frederick Page Shenandoah Warren Winchester Virginia Source: County Health Rankings & Roadmaps data for 2010 & Note: Data not provided for some areas. 12

13 Health: VA County Risk Rankings Diet & exercise Above 50% Clarke Frederick Page Shenandoah Warren Winchester Source: County Health Rankings & Roadmaps data for 2010 &

14 Health: VA County Risk Rankings Alcohol use 1 Above 50% Clarke Frederick Page Shenandoah Warren Winchester Source: County Health Rankings & Roadmaps data for 2010 & Note: 2014 rankings include drug & alcohol use 14

15 Health: Context: % Binge/Excessive drinking 18% 16% 14% 14% 13% 15% 16% 16% 15% 14% 15% 14% 14% 16% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Clarke Frederick Page Shenandoah Warren Winchester Virginia Source: County Health Rankings & Roadmaps data for 2010 & Note: Data not provided for some areas. 15

16 Health: VA County Risk Rankings STDs 1 Above 50% Clarke Frederick Page Shenandoah Warren Winchester Source: County Health Rankings & Roadmaps data for 2010 & Note: 2014 included additional STDs. 16

17 Health: VA County Risk Rankings Access to care Above 50% Clarke Frederick Page Shenandoah Warren Winchester Source: County Health Rankings & Roadmaps data for 2010 &

18 Health: Context: People per primary care physician 3,000 2,656 2,500 2,416 2,000 2,080 2,037 2,049 1,997 1,639 1,922 2,159 1,716 1,500 1,000 1,053 1, Clarke Frederick Page Shenandoah Warren Winchester Virginia Source: County Health Rankings & Roadmaps data for 2011 & Note: Data not available for

19 Health: Context: People per mental health provider 7,000 6,000 6,022 5,000 4,000 3,651 3,537 4,301 3,000 2,000 1,000 1, ,027 0 Clarke Frederick Page Shenandoah Warren Winchester Virginia 2014 Source: County Health Rankings & Roadmaps data for Note: this is a new measure provided in

20 Health: Context: % Uninsured 25% 20% 15% 14% 12% 13% 15% 18% 18% 18% 17% 13% 16% 20% 15% 15% 14% 10% 5% 0% Clarke Frederick Page Shenandoah Warren Winchester Virginia Source: County Health Rankings & Roadmaps data for 2010 &

21 Review of Changes Goal NSVPD Clarke Frederick Page Shenandoah Warren Winchester Education/Achieving Potential Increase on time high school graduation Decrease % need for Kindergarten N/A remediation Increase college participation Income/Financial Stability Decrease % family households earning <$25,000 per year Health Risks/Behaviors Increase rank for adult smoking N/A Increase rank for diet & exercise N/A Increase rank for alcohol use N/A Increase rank for STDs N/A Increase rank for access to care N/A Legend: = Increase = Decrease = No change 21

22 Local demographic changes/trends Population estimates & projections Age groups Race/Ethnicity Educational attainment Unemployment rates Children in poverty Children in free or reduced lunch programs Participants in SNAP Speak English less than well Teen pregnancies Violent crimes per 100,000 people 22

23 Demographics: Population estimates ,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, Clarke 14,067 14,211 14,276 14,148 Frederick 78,834 79,156 80,118 81,207 Page 24,058 24,155 24,215 24,079 Shenandoah 42,172 42,114 42,812 42,889 Warren 37,729 37,688 38,077 38,387 Winchester 26,265 26,167 27,208 26,961 Source: Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service Annual Population Estimates, released 1/27/14 23

24 Demographics: Population Projections through , , , ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20, Clarke 12,652 14,034 15,025 15,871 16,631 Frederick 59,209 78,305 97, , ,938 Page 23,177 24,042 24,995 25,895 26,716 Shenandoah 35,075 41,993 45,829 49,045 52,104 Warren 31,584 37,575 41,856 45,818 49,709 Winchester 23,585 26,203 27,967 29,449 30,781 Source: Virginia Labor Market Information LMI Population Change tool 24

25 Demographics: Age groups 120, ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 Under 5 5 to to ,696 44,374 12,564 39,462 79,343 32, ,350 48,498 13,791 47,649 84,523 44, ,350 52,875 15,839 54,783 86,427 59, ,350 61,437 16,757 60,676 98,881 65,689 Source: Virginia Employment Commission Virginia Community Profile for the Northern Shenandoah Valley RC, 1/11/14 update 25

26 Demographics: Race/Ethnicity & Hispanic origin projections 350, , , , , , ,000 50, , , , ,000 50, White Black/African American Asian Other Non Hispanic Hispanic/Latina Source: Virginia Employment Commission Virginia Community Profile for the Northern Shenandoah Valley RC, 1/11/14 update 26

27 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Demographics: Educational attainment 737 1,292 4,706 1,973 2,085 1,328 2, ,324 7,813 3,395 1,799 1,365 2,829 2,555 1,609 3, ,495 1,000 4,943 10,796 2,973 2,250 7,204 12,218 9,252 16,687 5,042 2,847 2,888 5,055 3,350 1, , ,051 1,706 1,783 1,429 1,505 Clarke Frederick Page Shenandoah Warren Winchester Less Than 9th grade 9 12th No Diploma High School Grad/GED Some college/no degree Associate's Bachelor's Grad/Prof/Doct. Source: Virginia Employment Commission Virginia Community Profile for the Northern Shenandoah Valley RC, 1/11/14 update 27

28 Demographics: Unemployment rates 14% 12% 11.7% 10.8% 10% 9.6% 8% 6% 4% 5.9% 4.0% 7.3% 4.9% 8.3% 6.8% 5.8% 5.7% 7.2% 7.1% 5.4% 5.4% 7.0% 2% 0% Clarke Frederick Page Shenandoah Warren Winchester Virginia United States June 2010 January 2014 Source: Virginia Employment Commission Virginia Labor Market Information, LMI Unemployment tool & NSVRC Community Profile 28

29 Demographics: Children in poverty 25% 22% 23% 20% 15% 11% 12% 18% 12% 18% 11% 15% 17% 13% 16% 10% 9% 7% 5% 0% Clarke Frederick Page Shenandoah Warren Winchester Virginia Source: County Health Rankings & Roadmaps data for 2010 &

30 Demographics: Children in free/reduced lunch programs 60% 50% 50% 54% 54% 57% 40% 34% 37% 43% 34% 40% 30% 29% 20% 17% 19% 10% 0% Clarke Frederick Page Shenandoah Warren Winchester Source: VA Dept. of Education National School Lunch Program (NSLP) Free and Reduced Price Eligibility reports for &

31 Demographics: Supplemental Nutrition Assistant Program (SNAP) total persons participating 7,000 6,000 6,060 6,639 5,600 5,000 4,000 3,963 3,637 4,780 4,308 4,961 4,350 3,814 3,000 2,000 1, Clarke Frederick Page Shenandoah Warren Winchester January 2010 January 2014 Source: VA Dept. of Social Services SNAP Participation Reports 31

32 Demographics: Speak English less than very well (5 yrs.+) 14% 12% 13.0% 11.0% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0% Clarke Frederick Page Shenandoah Warren Winchester 2009 Est Est. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, and American Community Survey multi year estimates 32

33 Demographics: Teen pregnancies per 1,000 females Clarke Frederick Page Shenandoah Warren Winchester NSVRC Source: Virginia Department of Health Health Statistics for 2009 &

34 Demographics: Violent crimes per 100,000 people Clarke Frederick Page Shenandoah Warren Winchester Virginia Source: County Health Rankings & Roadmaps data for 2010 &

35 Prepared by: Lord Fairfax Community College Dr. Cheryl Thompson Stacy President cthompson (540) Dr. John Milam Director of Planning & Institutional Effectiveness (540)