World Agricultural Production

Transcription

1 United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Circular Series WAP October 2016 World Agricultural Australia Wheat and Rapeseed: Wheat is at Record ; Rapeseed is Near Record USDA estimates 2016/17 Australia wheat production at 28.3 million metric tons, up slightly from last month and up 16 percent from 2015/16. harvested is estimated at 12.9 million hectares, up 0.1 million hectares from last month and up slightly from 2015/16. USDA estimates wheat yield at a record 2.19 tons per hectare, up 2 percent from last month and up 15 percent from 2015/16. Rapeseed production is estimated at 3.7 million metric tons, up 24 percent from last year. harvested is estimated at 2.5 million hectares, up 6 percent from 2015/16. is estimated at 1.48 tons per hectare, up 10 percent from last month and up 17 percent from 2015/16, and the highest in the past 10 years. FAS personnel observed good growing conditions for both crops during early September. Precipitation has been above average since sowing operations commenced in May. Soil moisture Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board

2 in virtually all rapeseed and wheat cropping areas has markedly improved from the relatively dry conditions which prevailed during much of the previous year. Field conditions are considered near ideal in most regions with the exception of localized losses resulting from flooding in southeast Australia and frosts in Western Australia. Seasonal analysis of satellite imagery reveals above-average Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) NDVI (normalized difference vegetation index) indicating healthy vegetative conditions since May for all major wheat and rapeseed producing states. (For more information, please contact Canada Rapeseed and Wheat: Near Record USDA estimates 2016/17 Canada rapeseed production at 18.5 million metric tons, up nearly 3 percent from last month and up slightly from 2015/16. harvested is estimated at 8.0 million hectares, unchanged last month but down 3 percent from 2015/16. USDA estimates rapeseed yield at a record 2.30 tons per hectare, up 2 percent from last month and up 4 percent from 2015/16. Wheat production is estimated at 31.5 million metric tons, up 14 percent from 2015/16 despite a 3-percent year-to-year decrease in area, to 9.3 million hectares. As with rapeseed, the decrease in area is attributed to a switch to pulses in the western prairies. is estimated at 3.40 tons per hectare, up 3 percent from last month and up 18 percent from 2015/16. 2

3 Satellite-derived vegetation indices (the normalized difference vegetation index, or NDVI) showed crop vigor higher than 2013, a year of record yields for both wheat and rapeseed. Conditions throughout the growing season were ideal. Farmers were able to complete planting on time. At flowering, timely rainfall and average temperatures benefited crop growth. Soil moisture across the western prairies was plentiful from flowering to pre-harvest. Although heavy rainfall in late September may have slowed harvest, any delays will be unlikely to impact yields. (For more information, please contact Arnella.Trent@fas.usda.gov.) France Corn: Summer Dryness Cuts Crop for Second Consecutive Year USDA estimates corn 2016/17 France production at 12.5 million metric tons (mmt), 1.0 mmt below last month, and 1.2 mmt below 2015/16. The estimated harvest is 20 percent below the 5- year average. is estimated at 1.5 million hectares, the lowest in ten years. is estimated at 8.12 metric tons per hectare, down 6 percent from last month, 8 percent below last year, and 9 percent below the 5-year average. The USDA estimate for France corn decreased for the fourth consecutive month as summer drought and high temperatures affected crop growth. Soil moisture was low, as less than half the normal precipitation fell during July and August. In addition, water restrictions were imposed in some locations, further limiting yield potential for irrigated corn. This is the second consecutive dry summer to negatively affect corn production in France. Moreover, corn planting was delayed due to a cool and extremely wet spring in central and northern France. MODIS NDVI Satellite Vegetation Index Depicts Poor 2016 Crop in SW France 3

4 According to the French Office of Farming, harvest is in the early stages with 4 percent cut on September 26 (versus 7 percent in 2015). The harvest is progressing slowly, with farmers allowing the grain to dry in the field in an effort to avoid the expense of artificial drying. According to the Maize Growers Union, some of the crop has been cut for silage because of the drought damage. (For more information, please contact Bryan.Purcell@fas.usda.gov.) Australia Cotton: Forecast Revised Upward The 2016/17 cotton crop is forecast at 4.0 million bales, up 0.5 million or 14 percent from last month, and up 1.4 million or 54 percent from last year. Harvested area is forecast at 475,000 hectares, up 65,000 hectares or 16 percent from last month, and up 163,000 or 52 percent from last year. is forecast at 1,833 kilograms per hectare. is expected to decrease because of a forecast increase in the share of the total area sown to dryland cotton. Irrigated cotton yields are substantially higher than dryland yields and the difference widens in low rainfall years. On average about 90 percent of Australia s total cotton production comes from irrigated areas. This will be the first time in three years that a significant area has been planted to dryland cotton. Dryland planting tends to vary with seasonal weather forecast and prices at sowing. This season s above-average rainfall has increased water storage for irrigated cotton and provided adequate soil moisture in dryland cotton areas. Irrigated cotton area is forecast to increase, reflecting increased water storage levels in reservoirs supplying cotton growing regions. Also, higher cotton prices relative to sorghum will shift sorghum area to cotton in Queensland and northern New South Wales where these crops compete. (For more information, please contact Jim.Crutchfield@fas.usda.gov.) Mali Cotton: Forecast at Record Level Mali s cotton production for 2016/17 is forecast at a record 1.23 million bales, up 0.13 million bales from last month and up 0.25 million bales or 26 percent from last year. Harvested area is forecast at a record 0.7 million hectares (mha), up 0.1 mha from last month and up 0.16 mha or 28 percent from last year. is forecast at 381 kilograms per hectare, down 2 percent from last year and 3 percent below the 5-year average. Mali s cotton is sown from May to July and harvest is from late October to December. 4

5 Mali s record cotton production is attributed mainly to increased planted area which exceeded targeted levels as reported by the Malian Company for Textile Development. Previous record cotton production of 1.20 million bales was set over ten years ago during the 2003/04 marketing season. Mali has been Africa s second-largest cotton producer during the past five years, behind Burkina Faso. (For more information, please contact Curt.Reynolds@fas.usda.gov.) Thailand Rice: Forecast to Rebound Owing to Ample Irrigation Thailand s 2016/17 rice production is forecast at 18.6 million metric tons (milled basis), up 1.6 million or 9 percent from last month and up 18 percent from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 10.1 million hectares, up 0.5 million or 6 percent from last month and up 7 percent from last year. is estimated slightly above average at 2.80 tons per hectare. Rainfall during the 2016 wet season has been extremely favorable, breaking the two-year drought while recharging most of the country s reservoirs. Water storage in major reservoirs at the end of September has surpassed government expectations, and the Royal Irrigation Department (RID) was confident it could supply sufficient irrigation to rice farmers during the upcoming 2016/17 dry season. This reversal of fortune in overall national water supply is expected to lead to a major recovery in Thailand s rice production this year. Given the favorable water supply, USDA forecasts that 5

6 harvested 2016/17 dry-season rice acreage will increase approximately 130 percent compared to last year, being roughly equal to the 5-year average. Thailand is in the midst of its first of two annual rice-growing periods, called the wet-season crop. The wet-season rice harvest is the larger of two annual crops, normally accounting for roughly 70 percent of total annual production. It is primarily rainfed and cultivated during the summer monsoon period. Wet-season rice acreage has averaged about 8.8 million hectares since Dry-season rice is planted starting in November, with 70 to 80 percent of the crop entirely irrigated. The other 20 to 30 percent is rainfed, planted before the end of the summer monsoon season when rainfall and soil moisture supplies are still high. The dry-season crop has significantly higher yields and is the source of the country s export surplus. Typically, the dry season rice crop is cultivated on 2.0 million hectares and accounts for roughly 30 percent of total annual rice production. (For more information, please contact Michael.Shean@fas.usda.gov.) Malaysia Palm Oil: Lingering Effects from El Niño Depress 2015/16 Output Malaysia s 2015/16 palm oil production is estimated at 17.7 million metric tons, down 0.6 million or 3 percent from last month and down 11 percent from. Mature oil palm area is estimated at 4.8 million hectares, up 2 percent from. is estimated at 3.69 metric tons per hectare, down 13 percent from. El Niño-related drought stress during 2015 and MALAYASIA: Palm Oil Growing s early 2016 has suppressed palm oil yields, with monthly production running well below normal for the past eleven months. Palm oil plantation companies have reported widespread pollination problems, including lower fresh fruit bunch (FFB) size and weight, and lower than normal oil content. Roughly 50 percent of total mature acreage in Malaysia experienced 4 to 5 consecutive months of drought conditions, and rainfall was substantially below the minimum required for normal yields. (For more information, please contact Michael.Shean@fas.usda.gov.) 6

7 World Agricultural U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service / International Assessment Division (IPAD) Ag Box 1051, Room 4630, South Building Washington, DC Telephone: (202) Fax: (202) This report uses information from the Foreign Agricultural Service s (FAS) global network of agricultural attachés and counselors, official statistics of foreign governments and other foreign source materials, and the analysis of economic data and satellite imagery. Estimates of foreign area, yield, and production are from the International Assessment Division, FAS, and are reviewed by USDA s Inter-Agency Commodity Estimates Committee. Estimates of U.S. area, yield, and production are from USDA s National Agricultural Statistics Service. Numbers within the report may not add to totals because of rounding. This report reflects official USDA estimates released in the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE-558), October 12, Printed copies are available from the National Technical Information Service. Download an order form at or call NTIS at The FAS International Assessment Division prepared this report. The next issue of World Agricultural will be released after 12:00 p.m. Eastern Time, November 9, Conversion Table Metric tons to bushels Wheat, soybeans = MT * Corn, sorghum, rye = MT * Barley = MT * Oats = MT * Metric tons to 480-lb bales Cotton = MT * Metric tons to hundredweight Rice = MT * & weight 1 hectare = acres 1 kilogram = pounds 7

8 For further information, contact: U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service International Assessment Division Ag Box 1051, Room 4630, South Building Washington, DC Telephone: (202) Fax: (202) GENERAL INFORMATION Director Ronald Frantz Deputy Director Robert Tetrault Administrative Assistant Shelisa Johnson USDA Remote Sensing Advisor Glenn Bethel Sr. Analyst/Satellite Imagery Curt Reynolds, Ph.D Archives Manager/Technical Lead Sr. Analyst/ Technical Lead Dath Mita, Ph.D Sr. Analyst/ Global Special Jim Crutchfield Projects Manager/Technical Lead Sr. Analyst/Technical Lead Vacant GIS Analyst/WAP Coordinator Justin Jenkins COUNTRY- AND REGION-SPECIFIC INFORMATION, Argentina, Venezuela, Denise McWilliams, Ph.D and Colombia Western and Central Europe, Bryan Purcell and North Africa Russia, Kazakhstan, Ukraine, Mark Lindeman and other FSU-12 countries Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, India, and Nepal Arnella Trent East Asia, China, and Japan Dath Mita, Ph.D Sub-Saharan Africa, Curt Reynolds, Ph.D Nigeria and South Africa S.E. Asia, Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Michael Shean Cambodia and Vietnam Central America, Mexico, Justin Jenkins and Western United States Australia, New Zealand, Pakistan Jim Crutchfield Papua New Guinea and South Pacific Islands Middle East, Afghanistan, Iraq, Bill Baker, Ph.D Iran, Syria, and Brazil Canada, Caribbean, and Katie McGaughey Eastern United States

9 The Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) updates its production, supply and distribution (PSD) database for cotton, oilseeds, and grains at 12:00 p.m. on the day the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report is released. This circular is released by 12:15 p.m. FAS Reports and Databases: Current World Market and Trade and World Agricultural Reports: Archives World Market and Trade and World Agricultural Reports: Supply and Distribution Database (PSD Online): EU Countries & Estimates Global Agricultural Trade System (U.S. Exports and Imports): Export Sales Report: Global Agricultural Information Network (Agricultural Attaché Reports): Other USDA Reports: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE): Economic Research Service: National Agricultural Statistics Service:

10 Table 01 World Crop Summary Million Metric Tons Commodity World - - Total Foreign - North America United States North America Canada - North America Mexico - Former Soviet Russia - Former Soviet Ukraine - Europea n - Asia (WAP) China - Asia (WAP) India - South America Brazil - Asia (WAP) Indonesia Asia (WAP) Pakistan Asia (WAP) Thailand South America Argentina Selected Other Australia Selected Other South Africa Selected Other Turkey - All Others - ---Million metric tons--- Wheat nr /16 prel nr /17 proj. Sep nr Oct nr Coarse Grains 1, nr /16 prel. 1, nr /17 proj. Sep 1, nr Oct 1, nr Rice, Milled nr /16 prel nr /17 proj. Sep nr Oct nr Total Grains 2, , nr /16 prel. 2, , nr /17 proj. Sep 2, , nr Oct 2, , nr Oilseeds nr /16 prel nr /17 proj. Sep nr Oct nr Cotton /16 prel /17 proj. Sep Oct / Includes wheat, coarse grains, and rice (milled) shown above.

11 Table 02 Wheat,, and Change in 2015/16 Sep Oct 2015/16 Sep Oct 2015/16 Sep Oct MMT Percent MMT Percent World United States Total Foreign European Union China South Asia India Pakistan Afghanistan Nepal Former Soviet Union - 12 Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan Uzbekistan Belarus Canada Argentina Brazil Uruguay Australia Africa Egypt Morocco Ethiopia Algeria Middle East Turkey Iran Iraq Syria Mexico Others

12 Table 03 Total Coarse Grain,, and Change in 2015/16 Sep Oct 2015/16 Sep Oct 2015/16 Sep Oct MMT Percent MMT Percent World , , , , United States Total Foreign China European Union Brazil Argentina Former Soviet Union - 12 Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan Belarus Africa Nigeria South Africa Tanzania Burkina Ethiopia Egypt Mali India Southeast Asia Indonesia Philippines Vietnam Thailand Mexico Canada Australia Middle East Turkey Iran Others ; Coarse Grain includes: Barley, Corn, Millet, Mixed Grains, Oats, Rye and Sorghum

13 Table 04 Corn,, and Change in 2015/16 Sep Oct 2015/16 Sep Oct 2015/16 Sep Oct MMT Percent MMT Percent World , , , United States Total Foreign China Brazil Argentina Bolivia European Union Africa South Africa Nigeria Ethiopia Egypt Tanzania Malawi Zambia Kenya Uganda Zimbabwe Former Soviet Union - 12 Ukraine Russia South Asia India Pakistan Nepal Southeast Asia Indonesia Philippines Vietnam Thailand Mexico Canada Turkey Others

14 Table 05 Barley,, and Change in 2015/16 Sep Oct 2015/16 Sep Oct 2015/16 Sep Oct MMT Percent MMT Percent World United States Total Foreign European Union Former Soviet Union - 12 Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan Belarus Azerbaijan Canada Australia Middle East Turkey Iran Iraq Syria Africa Ethiopia Morocco Algeria Tunisia South Africa Argentina Uruguay Brazil India China Mexico Afghanistan Others

15 Table 06 Oats,, and Change in 2015/16 Sep Oct 2015/16 Sep Oct 2015/16 Sep Oct MMT Percent MMT Percent World United States Total Foreign European Union Former Soviet Union - 12 Russia Ukraine Belarus Kazakhstan Canada Argentina Brazil Chile Uruguay Oceania Australia New Zealand China Africa Algeria Morocco South Africa Other Europe Norway Serbia Albania Bosnia and Herzegovina Turkey Mexico Others

16 Table 07 Rye,, and Change in 2015/16 Sep Oct 2015/16 Sep Oct 2015/16 Sep Oct MMT Percent MMT Percent World United States Total Foreign European Union Former Soviet Union - 12 Russia Belarus Ukraine Kazakhstan Turkey Canada Chile Argentina Other Europe Bosnia and Herzegovina Switzerland Serbia Australia Others

17 Table 08 Sorghum,, and Change in 2015/16 Sep Oct 2015/16 Sep Oct 2015/16 Sep Oct MMT Percent MMT Percent World United States Total Foreign Africa Nigeria Ethiopia Sudan Burkina Mali Niger Cameroon Tanzania Egypt Uganda Ghana Mozambique South Africa Mexico Argentina Brazil South Asia India Pakistan China Australia European Union Others

18 Table 09 Rice,, and Change in 2015/16 Sep Oct 2015/16 Sep Oct 2015/16 Sep Oct MMT Percent MMT Percent World United States Total Foreign East Asia China Japan Korea, South Korea, North South Asia India Bangladesh Pakistan Nepal Sri Lanka Southeast Asia Indonesia Vietnam Thailand Burma Philippines Cambodia Laos Malaysia Brazil Peru Africa Egypt Madagascar Nigeria European Union Iran Others is on a rough basis, before the milling process. is on a milled basis, after the milling process.

19 Table 10 Total Oilseed,, and Change in 2015/16 Sep Oct 2015/16 Sep Oct 2015/16 Sep Oct MMT Percent MMT Percent World Total Total Foreign Oilseed, Copra Oilseed, Palm Kernel Major OilSeeds United States Foreign Oilseeds Brazil Argentina Paraguay Bolivia Uruguay China South Asia India Pakistan European Union Former Soviet Union Russia Ukraine Uzbekistan Canada Africa Nigeria South Africa Tanzania Southeast Asia Indonesia Burma Australia Turkey Others World Total and Total Foreign: (Major Oilseeds plus copra and palm kernel) Major Oilseeds: (soybeans, sunflowerseeds, peanuts(inshell), cottonseed and rapeseed)

20 Table 11 Soybean,, and Change in 2015/16 Sep Oct 2015/16 Sep Oct 2015/16 Sep Oct MMT Percent MMT Percent World United States Total Foreign Brazil Argentina Paraguay Bolivia Uruguay East Asia China Korea, South Korea, North Japan India Canada Former Soviet Union - 12 Russia Ukraine European Union Southeast Asia Indonesia Vietnam Thailand Burma Mexico Iran Africa South Africa Nigeria Zambia Uganda Middle East Iran Turkey Others

21 Table 12 Cottonseed,, and Change in 2015/16 Sep Oct 2015/16 Sep Oct 2015/16 Sep Oct MMT Percent MMT Percent World United States Total Foreign South Asia India Pakistan China Former Soviet Union - 12 Uzbekistan Turkmenistan Tajikistan Kazakhstan Brazil Argentina Middle East Turkey Syria Iran Australia European Union Africa Burkina Mali Cameroon Cote d'ivoire Benin Tanzania Egypt Nigeria Uganda Zimbabwe Sudan Mexico Burma Others

22 Table 13 Peanut,, and Change in 2015/16 Sep Oct 2015/16 Sep Oct 2015/16 Sep Oct MMT Percent MMT Percent World United States Total Foreign China Africa Nigeria Sudan Senegal Cameroon Ghana Chad Malawi Congo (Kinshasa) Niger Mali Uganda Burkina Guinea Egypt Central African Republic South Africa Mozambique Cote d'ivoire Benin South Asia India Pakistan Southeast Asia Indonesia Burma Vietnam Thailand Argentina Brazil Mexico Others

23 Table 14 Sunflowerseed,, and Change in 2015/16 Sep Oct 2015/16 Sep Oct 2015/16 Sep Oct MMT Percent MMT Percent World United States Total Foreign Former Soviet Union - 12 Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan European Union Argentina Uruguay Bolivia Brazil Paraguay China South Asia India Pakistan Middle East Turkey Iran Israel Africa Egypt Morocco South Africa Burma Canada Australia Others