THE FUTURE OF BEER - LIKE IT OR NOT?

Transcription

1 THE FUTURE OF BEER - LIKE IT OR NOT? TIM WEBB BEER WRITER & EBCU EXECUTIVE

2 HOW TO BE AN EXPERT PART 1: THE BEER WRITER I write books about beer Good Beer Guide Belgium World Atlas of Beer Pocket Beer Book

3 THE WORLD ATLAS OF BEER

4 OF BIER

5 OU BIÈRE

6 ELLER ØL

7 OR WHATEVER THAT SAYS

8 NEW BEER S STORY IN 256 PAGES

9 GOOD BEER GUIDE BELGIUM

10 BEER IN THE NETHERLANDS

11 HOW TO BE AN EXPERT PART 2: THE CONSUMER CHAMPION I am a revolting consumer Campaign for Real Ale (CAMRA) European Beer Consumer Union (EBCU)

12 EUROPEAN BEER CONSUMERS UNION

13 HOW TO PREDICT THE FUTURE Try to understand the past Try to understand the present Try to apply thinking power

14 THE LESSON OF HISTORY

15 Hegel remarks somewhere that all great, world-historic facts and personages occur, as it were, twice. He forgets to add: the first time as tragedy, the second as farce. Karl Marx ( ). THEN AGAIN

16 . AND FINALLY History is the version of past events that people have agreed upon. Napoléon Bonaparte ( )

17 BEER IN THE 20 TH CENTURY: FROM THE PRODUCER PERSPECTIVE The century was a great success for brewing A home town business selling mostly to local markets became a global business Total volumes rose massively The consumption of beer became global

18 BEER IN THE 20 TH CENTURY: FROM THE CONSUMER PERSPECTIVE The century was lost to 12 1 to wine Wine became diverse and interesting The natural drink of the decision-making classes Beer became light and trivial The natural drink of male bonding rituals

19 WINE THE NATURAL DRINK OF THE DECISION-MAKING CLASSES

20 BEER THE NATURAL DRINK OF MALE BONDING RITUALS

21 AMERICA: ASK THE CONSUMER

22 EUROPE: THE SKOL PROJECT

23 WILLEM S THEORY OF 2% CUTS When the money men came they asked Can you mash for 15 minutes less because it saves money 98% of people could not spot the difference And the 2% who could said it was not-so-bad So we mashed for 15 minutes less Then they did the same with the hop recipe; the grain bill; the yeast strain; the boil sequence; the fermenter height; fermentation temperatures; the filtration take; the conditioning time; and so on. Which makes a lot of 2%s

24 1976: MICHAEL JACKSON. WITHOUT WHOM

25 PETER MAXWELL STUART 20 TH LAIRD OF TRAQUAIR

26 1965: TRAQUAIR HOUSE INNERLEITHEN, SCOTLAND

27 1966: DE KLUIS HOEGAARDEN, BELGIUM

28 1971: CAMRA ST. ALBANS, UK

29 1975: NEW ALBION BREWERY SONOMA, CALIFORNIA

30 WHERE WE ARE TODAY CRAFT BREWING An explosion of independent breweries 4 heritage beer cultures >>>> 40 / 70 and growing 4,000 brewery companies >>>> 30,000 and growing Beer styles diversify endlessly Beer styles abound Local *** Regional *** Global Classic styles *** Folk styles *** Extreme styles Flavour *** Diversity *** Authenticity

31 WHERE WE ARE TODAY INDUSTRIAL BREWING The Skol project s prediction happened Consolidation puts ABI in charge of 30+% of world beer Geared to high volumes and successful branding Disruption was not foreseen Global brewers remain in control through Being large financial concerns Meeting environmental concerns Controlling market access for smaller competitors

32 WHERE WE ARE TODAY THE WORLD AT LARGE The neo-prohibitionist agenda All alcohol is evil just like my late husband In a post-religious age exploit the belief in health control The people s dilemma We need comforting certainties and freedom from conformity We expect to earn money but not pay for stuff The global political agenda Is there any reason why the West should remain in charge? Has economic globalisation actually worked for anyone?

33 WHY THE GLOBALS ARE VULNERABLE

34 WHERE WE NEED TO BE TOMORROW Megabrewing has grown a reputation for cutting jobs; maximising profitability; and scything through local traditions Microbrewing has a reputation for creating jobs; maximising flavour and authenticity; and creating strong local affinities Which of these sounds like a better corporate citizen for the 21 st century?

35 THE CO-DEPENDENCY ARGUMENT Megabrewing controls the market and the message but for complex logistical reasons cannot hope to ride the new trends in the beer market Microbrewing is chaotic, often tacky and is in effect excluded from most markets, but it makes the beers that have re-innervated the beer market

36 RECOGNISING CO-DEPENDENCE THE BOTTOM LINE For global brewers the prize is to stay in the business of providing high margin comfort brands and the logistical supply of these around the globe For craft brewers the prize is to gain the right to stay in business long enough to enjoy a healthy pension and a job for any talented children you may have.

37 HOW TO GET THERE THE KILLING OF SACRED COWS

38 RECOGNISING CO-DEPENDENCE WHAT IT MEANS For global brewers this means recognising: They control the market but only independents have authenticity and provenance matters The creatives must retain self-respect and due rewards That Willem s 2% cuts have no place in craft brewing For craft brewers this means acknowledging: You get to play mostly by consent Misleading the consumer is disallowed Innovation for its own sake is just self-indulgence

39 FOR EXAMPLE. Collaborate with other craft brewers; explain your value to politicians; challenge market exclusion. Create great products; practice hard; aim for reliability; do not infantilise your beer or poison your customers; respect serious consumers.

40 THIS MIGHT HAPPEN BECAUSE The world is in a funny mood right now Humankind craves common purpose and global brands offer comforting familiarity Yet individuals and communities seek distinct identities, which talented local producers, styles and traditions on a human scale

41 SOMETHING WILL HAPPEN BECAUSE The generations coming through are the most intelligent and best enabled ever They have simpler values they are smarter and they are younger It is not coincidence that craft beer is, in part at least, a generational thing

42 CHEERS PROOST SANTÉ SKÅL KIPPIS SALUD SLÁINTE NA ZDRAVI