Trends & Styles in Northern European Markets

Transcription

1 Trends & Styles in Northern European Markets by Job de Swart MW RAI - AMSTERDAM 26 NOVEMBER 2018

2 Who is this guy? - Job de Swart is the 3rd Dutchman to become a Master of Wine in Wine buyer for Les Généreux an association of 37 independent fine wine shops in The Netherlands - Co-founder of Grape Compass - on-line decision support system to forecast fungal disease pressures in vineyards

3 AGENDA - Market overview of Benelux and Scandinavian countries Focus on The Netherlands, Belgium, Denmark and Sweden - Wine trends and styles including tasting - Future perspective

4 World wine consumption Source: OIV Statistical Report on World Vitiviniculture 2018

5 World wine consumption Source: OIV Statistical Report on World Vitiviniculture 2018

6 Most important import markets (volume) Source: OIV Statistical Report on World Vitiviniculture 2018

7 Most important import markets (value) Source: OIV Statistical Report on World Vitiviniculture 2018

8 Market overview What constitutes the Northern European wine market? - all part of EU, but not similar in market structure (e.g. sales points, excise rates and taxes) - no significant wine producing countries -> highly reliant on imports - significant market for bulk wine - wine trends and styles are different per country

9 Market overview: Excise Rates and VAT Excise Rate Still Wine (euro per 9L case) Excise Rate Sparkling Wine (euro per 9L case) Wine VAT Belgium % Denmark % Finland % Luxembourg Nil Nil 17.00% Netherlands % Sweden % Source: European Commission Excise Duty Tables, Part I - Alcoholic Beverages, January 2014.

10 Wine market: The Netherlands - mature wine market of 17 million people - consumption growing from 15.8 litres in 1993 to 20.0 litres per capita in 2017 (OIV, 2017) - over 85% of wine sales via supermarkets -> consolidation - average price of a bottle of wine is 3,50 incl VAT - focus on private labels rather than brands (less marketing-> higher product quality?) - Dutch consumers show increased interest in wine - estimated market shares of white (up to 46%), red wine (down to 42%) and rosé (12%) - France is leading imports (31.4%) followed by South Africa (10.7%) and Italy (9,9%)

11 Trends and styles: The Netherlands Persistent trends - popularity of rosé, particularly Provence style - increased interest in organic wine (2-3% market share) - notable shift in style to lighter and more elegant still wines, both in alcohol and flavour - BE AWARE: round, supple whites and bold, juicy reds with some residual sugar still dominant! Recent developments - private labels focus more on taste profiles and origin rather than grape variety - premiumisation of wine purchases and greater diversity in product offering - strong growth of innovative wine drinks, such as fruit fusion wines and wine cocktails (Hugo)

12 Trends in Dutch supermarkets

13 Wine tasting: private label white Lidl supermarket 1L private label fresh and fruity white 13.0 abv 3,49 per bottle - South African Chenin Blanc - expressive, fruity, dry, crisp, clean, moderate length - no mention of Lidl on the label - focus on style rather than grape variety

14 Popular private labels in NL

15 Wine tasting: private label red Albert Heijn supermarket 1L private label fruity red 12.0 abv 3,99 per bottle - Languedoc blend (Syrah, Grenache) + Merlot - fruity, soft and round - more focus on taste profile fruity - recent introduction of premium Excellent label

16 Wine tasting: private label red Aldi supermarket 1L private label powerful red 12.5 abv 3,49 per bottle - EU blend of grapes - subdued, ripe fruit, medium body, rather sweet - no mention of Aldi on label - focus on wine and food pairing

17 Popular private labels in NL

18 Wine market: Belgium - mature wine market of 11 million people - consumption around 26.0 litres per capita in 2017, but slowly declining - market is subdivided between Flanders (North), Brussels (Mid) and Wallonia (South) Flanders: more curious, New World diversification (e.g. Chile, South Africa, US) and Bordeaux Wallonia: traditional French product orientation (67%) - supermarkets account for 70% of wine sales, of which 30% via disounters (CBI, 2016) - about 60% of wines purchased is red - about 58% of wines is French, followed by Chile and Italy (both 8%) and Spain (6%) - brand and grape variety are particularly important besides price and origin (CBI, 2016)

19 Trends and styles: Belgium - increasing demand for wines with sense of place, also in New World (20% market share) - lighter and fresher wines become more popular (part of healthy lifestyle) - strong growth in sparkling wine consumption, esp. Flanders (15%) - Bag-in-Box packaging is widely accepted (account for > 1/3rd of sales) Source: CBI, 2016

20 Wine market: Denmark - part of EU, but has its own currency (Danish Krone) - high excise duties negatively impacting wine sales - wine is considered a luxury product: price-sensitive consumers - fourth largest importer of bulk wine: 19% of total share in value (OIV, 2014) - Denmark has several great bottling facilities - Bag-in-Box is very popular: about 1/3rd of total wine market (Vinaviesen, 2014) - relatively high Fairtrade and organic wine sales: 15% increase between Source: CBI, 2016

21 Trends and styles: Denmark - premium wine is gaining market share - aging population (drink less, but better) - pairing with quality food - lighter wines - match with light food (healthy lifestyle) - preference for lightly sweetened wines - changing wine categories - new shelf navigation by taste profile (early-adopters of trendsetting UK) - wine selection based on occasion (origin becomes less important) - global sourcing - New World wines are losing market share - Old World wine sales are up: highest market share Italy (up to 29%) and France (down to 23%)

22 Monopolies: Norway, Sweden and Finland - no in store promotions - no discounting - limited advertising - journalists are very influential - monopoly must be non-discriminating - strong control of shops from head office - all purchasing follows similar procedures - pay attention: very different taxes and retailer margins! Source: Sjödin Consulting, 2012

23 Wine market: Sweden - monopoly market since Systembogalet supervises retail chain (about 430 outlets) - high excise of 1.80 per 75 cl, whilst retailer adds 19% on purchase price - internet purchase is legal since 2007, provided that Swedish taxes are paid (1% of total sales) - face competition with smallscale tax-free ferry trade between the Nordic states ( 90 mill.) - mature wine market: 25L per capita consumption - Sweden is second largest importer of bulk wine: 27% of total share in value (OIV, 2014) - about 50% of wine is bottled in 3L Bag-in-Box (CBI, 2016)

24 Trends and styles: Sweden - Old and New World countries share wine sales equally - South Africa particulary strong (20% market share) - relatively high interest in new origins delivering favourable price-quality ratio unique selling points (e.g. variety, region) - bulk wine imports keep growing Price competiveness New brands of importers Requirement to print best-before date on BIB s (higher turnover in bottling facilities) - Systembogalet targets organic wine market share of 10% by 2020

25 Closing remarks - There is no such thing as a Northern European wine market - Focus on trends and new developments on a country-by-country basis - Address market differences to become successful It s not only the art of blending, but the art of blending in. - Price and taste profile become even more dominant discriminators - Increased focus on private labels - Very limited options for storytelling

26 Thank you for your attention! RAI - AMSTERDAM 26 NOVEMBER 2018