Becoming a Smarter Trader: The Market Impact of the Structure in the Sugar, Coffee, and OJ Markets
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1 Becoming a Smarter Trader: The Market Impact of the Structure in the Sugar, Coffee, and OJ Markets Judith Ganes March 12 th, 2014
2 Increasing Reliance on a Few Suppliers for Global Needs Efficiency gains in major producers helping to keep small producing countries out of export markets Government provided financing and subsidies exacerbating the trend Geographical concentration increasing the risk from weather and disease While not exclusive to coffee, OJ, and sugar markets, these softs are experiencing potential supply disruptions due to global market structure
3 Cents per Pound Brazilian Weather Launching Arabica Prices Upward Arabica Robusta /2/2013 3/1/2013 4/29/2013 6/25/2013 8/21/ /17/ /13/2013 2/12/2014 Source: Futuresource
4 Share of World Arabica Output Recent Brazilian On-Years Responsible for Nearly 50% of Global Arabica Output 55% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 81/82 85/86 89/90 93/94 97/98 01/02 05/06 09/10 13/14 Source: USDA
5 Share of World Robusta Output Brazil Also Supplies an Increasingly Meaningful Portion of Global Robustas 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 81/82 85/86 89/90 93/94 97/98 01/02 05/06 09/10 13/14 Source: USDA
6 Share of Brazilian Arabica Output Brazilian Arabica Production Dominated by Minas Gerais State 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% 02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 Source: USDA
7 Share of Brazilian Robusta Output Similar Internal Brazilian Concentration Seen for Robustas in Espirito Santo 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% 02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 Source: USDA
8 Precipitation Well Below Expected Levels in Main Brazilian Growing Regions Minas Gerais Espirito Santo Source: NOAA
9 Million Bags Share of World Robusta Output Vietnam Emerged as Dominant Global Robusta Supplier 30 50% 45% 25 40% 20 Production Vietnam Share of World Output 35% 30% 15 25% 20% 10 15% 5 10% 5% 0 0% 81/82 85/86 89/90 93/94 97/98 01/02 05/06 09/10 13/14 Source: USDA
10 Cents per Pound Solids FCOJ Range Trading as Weather and Disease Worries Checked by Ample U.S. Imports and Muted Demand Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Oct-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 Source: Futuresource
11 Million Boxes Citrus Greening Weighed Heavily on October Florida Orange Estimates /86 89/90 93/94 97/98 01/02 05/06 09/10 13/14 Source: USDA
12 Million Boxes Boxes per Tree Sao Paolo Crop Used for FCOJ Lowest Since 91/92 on Disease Impacted Yields Fresh Oranges Oranges Processed into FCOJ Yield /90 93/94 97/98 01/02 05/06 09/10 13/14 0 Source: USDA
13 Million Gallons 42-degree Brix Florida Stocks Have Remained Level Heading Into Spring /10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/ Week Number of Oct-Sep Season Source: FDOC
14 Million SSE Equiv. Gallons Strong U.S. Imports, Aided by Record Mexican Shipments, Have Helped to Keep Stocks From Depleting Other Mexico Brazil Source: FDOC
15 Cents per Pound Dry Brazilian Weather and Ethanol Production Estimates Behind Recent Sugar Rally Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 Source: Futuresource
16 Million Tons Four Consecutive Years of Surplus in the Global Sugar Market Output Demand /82 85/86 89/90 93/94 97/98 01/02 05/06 09/10 13/14
17 Share of World Production Exported More Countries Become Self Sufficient Is Reducing Share of Global Sugar Production Exported 37% 35% 33% 31% 29% 27% 25% 85/86 89/90 93/94 97/98 01/02 05/06 09/10 13/14 Source: ISO, F.O. Licht
18 Million Tons Russian Domestic Production Has Reduced Import Needs by Nearly 3 Million Tons Over the Past decade 6 5 Net Imports /86 89/90 93/94 97/98 01/02 05/06 09/10 13/14 Source: ISO, F.O. Licht
19 Brazil Share of Global Prod. / Exp. Brazil Dominant in Sugar Export Market Despite Only Producing 22% of World Sugar 60% 50% 40% Production Exports 30% 20% 10% 0% 81/82 85/86 89/90 93/94 97/98 01/02 05/06 09/10 13/14 Source: ISO, F.O. Licht
20 Share of South Central Brazilian Cane BRL/L High Ethanol, Lower Gas Prices, Reduced Share of Sugarcane Used for Ethanol Brazilian consumer gas prices held level during 2012/ % 60% 58% 56% Ethanol Share of Cane Average Gas Price With gas prices back on the rise, E27 could be a possibility 54% 52% % more anhydrous ethanol would be required. Roughly equivalent to 1.5m tons of raw sugar. 50% 48% 46% 44% 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/ Source: ANP, UNICA
21 Brazil Ethanol / Gasoline Price Ratio Brazilian Consumer Hydrous Ethanol Prices Remain Off Recent Highs for Flex Fuel Drivers 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% Jul-01 Jul-02 Jul-03 Jul-04 Jul-05 Jul-06 Jul-07 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11 Jul-12 Jul-13 Source: ANP, UNICA
22 Million Tons Indian Sugar Production Prone to Sharp Downturns /82 85/86 89/90 93/94 97/98 01/02 05/06 09/10 13/14 Source: ISO, F.O. Licht
23 Million Tons And Swings Between Being a Net Exporter / Importer 6 4 Net Exports /82 85/86 89/90 93/94 97/98 01/02 05/06 09/10 13/14 Source: ISO, F.O. Licht
24 Million Tons Record Indian Stocks Have Resulted in Export Subsidies To Reduce Oversupply 16 As of February 2014, mills given 3,333 Rupees ($54) per ton exported Subsidy provides 11% premium over end February domestic prices Expected to result in 4 million tons exported Year Ending Stocks 0 81/82 89/90 97/98 05/06 13/14 Source; WSJ, India Department of Consumer Affairs
25 Million Tons Thai Share of Global Exports After Brazil, Thailand Proving to Be Reliable Second Largest Sugar Exporter 12 16% 10 Production Export Share 14% 8 12% 6 10% 4 8% 2 6% 0 81/82 85/86 89/90 93/94 97/98 01/02 05/06 09/10 13/14 4% Source: ISO, F.O. Licht
26 Million Tons Australia, Guatemala Only Other Countries to Export At Least 1M Tons per Year for the Past Five Years Australia Guatemala Combined Share 81/82 85/86 89/90 93/94 97/98 01/02 05/06 09/10 13/14 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Source: ISO, F.O. Licht
27 Million Tons Stocks to Use Ratio China Has Mopped Up Much of Recent Supply for Stock Building 5 54% 4.5 Imports Stocks / Use 49% 4 44% % % 29% 24% 19% 14% 9% 0 81/82 85/86 89/90 93/94 97/98 01/02 05/06 09/10 13/14 4% Source: ISO, F.O. Licht
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