DEVELOPMENTS IN STEEL SCRAP IN 2009
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- Duane French
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1 DEVELOPMENTS IN STEEL SCRAP IN 2009 AMERICAN SCRAP COALITION WASHINGTON, DC
2 DEVELOPMENTS IN STEEL SCRAP 2009 The year 2009 demonstrated that the United States continues to experience a crisis with respect to the availability of steel scrap. Despite a worldwide collapse in steel production, U.S. scrap exports continued to increase at an unsustainable pace. Indeed, in 2009 the United States exported nearly one-third of all the scrap it produced. China is the overwhelming cause of this crisis, as U.S. scrap exports to China have more than doubled, even in a year where both U.S. and global steel production fell sharply. China continued to fuel its overcapacity in steel with U.S. scrap, causing scrap exports from the United States to reach record heights. As a result, scrap prices in the United States reached their highest levels since September These export and price developments harmed U.S. manufacturers and other consumers of steel scrap. Scrap Exports and Domestic Consumption In 2009, both total and net scrap exports from the United States reached their highest levels ever. Total scrap exports in 2009 were million short tons, while net exports were 21.4 million tons. Total scrap exports increased by 4.1 percent from 2008 to 2009, and by 73 percent from 2005 to It is likely that in 2009 the United States was once again the largest exporter of steel scrap in the world. U.S. imports of scrap, on the other hand, were nearly 17 percent lower in 2009 than in The increase in exports occurred even as world steel production in 2009 fell 8 percent from However, China s production of steel actually increased by more than 13 percent from 2008 to If China is excluded, world production from 2008 to 2009 fell by a staggering 21 percent. In 2009, China was by far the largest importer of scrap from the United States, with total imports of 6.8 million short tons. This was an increase of 121 percent from 2008, despite a - 1 -
3 global recession and unprecedented declines in global demand for steel. Exports to India also increased sharply, growing by 79 percent. Five countries China, Turkey, Korea, Taiwan, and India accounted for 75 percent of all U.S. scrap exports. The following chart shows exports of scrap from the United States to the top 20 importers from 2005 through TOP DESTINATIONS OF U.S. SCRAP EXPORTS, (SHORT TONS) Country China 3,894,708 3,774,628 2,705,747 3,101,667 6,848,997 Turkey 1,654,855 2,723,891 3,594,929 4,940,345 4,057,243 Korea 1,240,095 1,487,348 1,502,446 2,884,002 3,425,861 Taiwan 312, ,850 1,803,911 2,728,012 2,458,711 India 888, , , ,850 1,740,160 Canada 2,378,813 1,656,663 1,557,947 1,836,291 1,069,862 Vietnam 28, , , , ,287 Malaysia 504, ,707 1,335,031 1,384, ,853 Mexico 1,654,718 1,219, , , ,433 Thailand 371, , ,982 1,171, ,318 Indonesia 207, , , , ,400 Egypt 229, , , , ,174 Pakistan 42,624 76, , , ,808 Greece 25, , , , ,777 Peru 48,288 70, , ,830 Hong Kong 54, , , , ,854 Bangladesh 31, , , , ,337 Japan 44,684 56, , ,087 76,557 Brazil 11,466 6,607 4,582 2,733 70,517 Switzerland 448 1,124 3, ,138 60,358 All Others 654, , , , ,736 Total U.S. Exports 14,278,257 16,394,154 18,166,498 23,748,096 24,715,075 Source: U.S. International Trade Commission, DataWeb Service, available at U.S. consumption of scrap in 2009, on the other hand, was significantly lower than in From 2008 to 2009, U.S. production of raw steel dropped by 36 percent. U.S. consumption of scrap also fell, by 27 percent. Scrap exports in 2009 were 46.7 percent of - 2 -
4 domestic scrap consumption, compared to only 32.6 percent in 2008, and less than 20 percent in The following chart shows the rapid growth of U.S. scrap exports since The U.S. Is A Large And Growing Net Exporter Of Ferrous Scrap Quantity (Millions of Short Tons) Exports Imports Net Exports Calendar Year Source: U.S. International Trade Commission, DataWeb Service, available at Scrap Prices Scrap prices peaked in the middle of 2008, before falling sharply. By December 2008, prices in the United States for both shredded auto scrap and #1 busheling had fallen to their lowest levels since mid Almost immediately, though, prices began to rise again. By December 2009, prices for shredded auto scrap had risen by nearly 42 percent, to $ per - 3 -
5 ton. Prices for #1 busheling increased by 38 percent over the course of the year, reaching $ per ton. Scrap prices in 2010 have continued to move sharply upwards; the latest AMM price for shredded auto scrap in March 2010 was $350 per ton, while the price for #1 busheling was $ These represent increases of 28 percent and 33 percent respectively over just three months. The following chart shows the extreme volatility in scrap prices in the United States over the last two years. Scrap Prices Have Increased Despite Falling Consumption $/Ton Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Shredded Auto Scrap #1 Busheling Source: American Metal Market, available via subscription at Restraints on Scrap Exports Steel scrap is exported from the United States without any restrictions. However, a number of countries, including China, Russia, Ukraine, and Argentina impose restrictions on - 4 -
6 exports of steel scrap. By artificially limiting global scrap supply, these restrictions increase worldwide prices for scrap and draw scrap out of the United States into world markets. This of course drives U.S. scrap prices higher. At the same time, by artificially increasing domestic supply, the restrictions make prices for scrap in these countries lower. Significantly, these countries are all large exporters of finished steel. Conclusion In 2009 U.S. scrap exports continued to grow even as world steel production declined. This increase was largely the result of higher exports to China and India. This in turn resulted in reduced scrap availability and higher prices in the United States. One of the primary causes of both higher scrap exports and higher scrap prices is the imposition of restrictions on scrap exports by major steel producing countries, including China, Russia, and Ukraine. Until these restrictions are removed, periods of tight supply and extreme volatility of prices will be exaggerated and steel producers in markets restricting scrap exports will benefit from these market distorting practices. * * * For more information, please contact Alan H. Price at or Timothy C. Brightbill at
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