HELCOM Baltic Sea Impact Index and MSP

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1 HELCOM Baltic Sea Impact Index and MSP

2 State of Baltic Sea report First version of the second holistic assessment on the state of the Baltic Sea (HOLAS II) June 2017 Summary report: Environmental situation in the Baltic Sea for the period Key messages on cumulative impacts using BSII are integrated to the report Supplementary report on cumulative impacts and BSII: more detailed description of results and methodology Updated report June 2018 covering years

3 Baltic Sea Impact Index Spatial distribution of cumulative impacts on habitats in 1x1 km grid Based on 18 aggregated pressure layers (42 human activities) 36 ecosystem components layers APL and EC are normalized to have a value between 0 and 1 Sensitivity score matrix

4 Baltic Sea Pressure Index Spatial distribution of cumulative pressures in 1x1 km grid Based on 18 aggregated pressure layers (42 human activities) Weighted with the average sensitivity scores on each pressure

5 Development of BSII from first version Further additions and improvement to the data and the report, as identified by the Contracting Parties, HELCOM working groups and experts One additional year, extending the assessment period to No separate call for new data, but data from HELCOM annual data collection activities are added and gap filling for existing data sets 27 Human activities and Ecosystem component layers are updated with new and supplmentary data Methodology for 8 Aggregated pressure layers are further developed and fine-tuned In house tool developed for calculating the assessment Comparison of different calculation methods for BSII and data availability and confidence analysis of the method

6 42 data sets on human activities Data collected by national data call, HELCOM annual reporting programmes, open source data and by data request to other organisations. For example: Bridges and other constructions Deposit of dredged material Wind turbines Cables Illegal oil discharges Shipping density Fishing of Herring

7 Aggregated pressure layers Showing the spatial distribution and the intensity of pressure on the scale 0 to 1 Some human activities effect the marine environment in similar ways -> these activities are aggregated to one pressure layer Physical disturbance Physical loss Disturbance to species due to human presence Some pressure layers are constructed directly from obesrvations or modelling Concentration of nutrients (interpolation) Input of continuous anthropogenic sound (using cut off values)

8 Ecosystem components Showing the spatial distribution of ecosystem components on the scale 0 to 1 Data collected by national data call, projects and HELCOM expert networks Benthic habitats (presence/absence) Species: Fucus Large scale habitats: Infralitoral sand Marine mammals (Classified distribution) Harbor porpoise Fish (Continious data) Herring abundance Birds (Absence/presence) Breeding area for birds

9 Sensitivity score matrix Matrix based on responses to expert survey Sensitivity scores: mean Oil slicks and spills Physical loss Physical disturbance Inputs of nitrogen Inputs of phosphorus Changes to hydrological conditions Submarine structures made by leaking gas (1180) Estuaries (1130) Coastal lagoons (1150) Zostera marina Ringed seal distribution Large shallow inlets and bays (1160) Reefs (1170) Harbour seal abundance Mudflats and sandflats not covered by seawater at low tide (1140) Recruitment areas of pikeperch Sandbanks which are slightly covered by sea water at all time (1110) Furcellaria lumbricalis Recruitment areas of perch Grey seal abundance Charophytes Circalittoral hard bottom Wintering seabirds Distribution of harbour porpoise Baltic Esker Islands (UW parts, 1610) Boreal Baltic islets and small islands (UW parts, 1620) Breeding seabird colonies Cod abundance Infralittoral hard bottom Fucus sp Cod spawning area Productive surface waters Circalittoral mixed Infralittoral mixed Circalittoral mud Mytilus edulis Infralittoral mud Infralittoral sand Oxygenated deep waters Circalittoral sand Herring abundance Sprat abundance Scores for layers that were finally not included Harbour seal haulouts Grey seal haulouts Recruitment areas of roach Abundance of pelagic spawning flounder Migration routes for birds Extraction of, herring Extraction of, cod Extraction of, sprat Inputs of hazardous substances Introduction of nonindigenous species Disturbance of species Input of heat Hunting of seabirds Hunting of seals Inputs of impulsive sound Inputs of continuous sounds Inputs of electromagnetic and seismic waves Introduction of radionuclides

10 Calculation of indecies ArcGIS toolbox, designed for this purpose Can be developed further with future needs Formulas based Halpern et al. BSII BSPI

11 Uncertanties in HELCOM BSII Spatial and temporal gaps on some data sets Regional sea -> Data coverage and quality varies between countries Better knowledge on linkages between pressures and ecosystems needed Temporal resolution fixed Ecosystem component data depended on national inventory programmes -> data gaps results in low impact

12 HELCOM BSII in MSP Increasing use of sea areas is leading to complex patterns of human activities and tools like HELCOM BSII are needed to recognise the cumulative impact of these activities Information on ecosystems and pressures -> Ecosystem approach Effective way of displaying the most impacted areas by human activities on habitats, on Baltic wide scale Collects cross-border knowledge of the spatial distribution and intensity of human activities and ecosystems All data on human activities, pressures, ecosystem components and indecies are publicly available in HELCOM mads Raising awareness and communication Ability to set local impacts and pressures to regional framework HELCOM BSII cumulative impacts assessment can be further develop e.g. to integrate MSP scenarios

13 To be considered when using HELCOM BSII in MSP HELCOM BSII results give a good comparable overview on the overlaps of ecosystems and pressures at the regional scale, but use of finer scale data (where exist) in the tool will better serve local planning needs Underlying uncertainties, including sensitivity scoring and data gaps, need to be recognized. The gaps in knowledge should progressively be filled in the future Index maps are showing the pattern of the sum on cumulative pressures and impacts Results should be interpreted together with individual layers and summary graphs providing info on the scale on each pressure and ecosystem Sum method in BSII, highlights the distribution of EC relatively more strongly (due to 36 EC and 18 Pressure layers) BSII model is complex and requires knowledge of the method to have and in depth understanding of the results

14 Timeline First version of State of the Baltic Sea released in June 2017 All BSII related data sets released in HELCOM map and data service, as well a supplementary report on the assessment of cumulative impacts Updated and final version of the report will be published June 2018 All new datasets will be made publicly available according to HELCOM data stragecy Most data sets and supplementary report have been updated based on feedback and recognized developments needs A small report bringing together the linkages between BSII and MSP will be released by the end of June

15 Connections of BSII to ongoing MSP work and projects Basmati Development of MSP tool, to support MSP processes around Baltic Sea BONUS Recent call for BONUS - focused on synthetizing available knowledge - will include a project on cumulative effects of human activities European MSP Platform Supporting Information for implementing MSP, covering cumulative impact assessment JPI Oceans Preparing a roadmap of cumulative effects, to build a common understanding of principles for CEA (Cumulative effect assessment)

16 Pan Baltic Scope To achieve coherent national maritime spatial planning in the Baltic Sea region HELCOM leading the activity on Cumulative impacts, based on existing tools and approaches, running Jan 2018 Dec 2019 Continuing the work on cumulative impact assessment to Recognise and resolve gaps in knowledge Recognise and harmonise key data sets by evaluating regional and national data Improve tools and methodologies Achieve common understanding of the role of CEA in MSP Test the integration to socioeconomic aspects and green infrastructure to CEA Deliverable: Report on cumulative impacts in MSP Sept 2019

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