J. Best 1 A. Tepley 2
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1 J. Best Ecoinformatics Summer Institute, Clarkson University 2 Department of Geography Oregon State University Ecoinformatics Summer Institute Final Presentation
2 Outline 1 Why are fires important? What about? Acknowledgements
3 Why are fires important? Large scale disturbance Community composition Resets successional pathway Management issues Conflicts with people Timber harvesting
4 What about? Fuel = Local intensity Local rate of spread Wet mass Dry Mass Dry Mass
5 Transects in WS01 Extensive met. data Collected for 24 hr. 1in.: Hourly in.: Every 6 hr.
6 Each sample: Massed wet Dried 36 hr. at 60 C Massed dry
7 Fuel Fuel moisture change over time Fuel (g/g) Site 2: Lower, N facing Site 5: Valley bottom Site 8: Upper, S facing Time (hr.)
8 Statistical Model ~ SlopePosn + Aspect + Slope + AT1 + AT2 Coefficients: Pr(> t ) (Intercept) < 2e-16 *** SlopePosn e-08 *** Aspect *** Slope * AT e-13 *** AT e-15 *** --- Signif. codes: 0 *** ** 0.01 * 0.05 Multiple R-Squared: p-value: < 2.2e , Adjusted R-squared:
9 Statistical Model (Intercept) < 2e-16 *** A flat area at 0 C results in 16% moisture. SlopePosn e-08 *** Upper slopes are drier. Aspect *** Increasing aspect bearing decreases moisture. Slope * Steeper areas are drier. AT e-13 *** Warmer 15 min. temperature increases moisture. AT e-15 *** Warmer 30 min. temperature decreases moisture.
10 Statistical Model (Intercept) < 2e-16 *** A flat area at 0 C results in 16% moisture. SlopePosn e-08 *** Upper slopes are drier. Aspect *** Increasing aspect bearing decreases moisture. Slope * Steeper areas are drier. AT e-13 *** Warmer 15 min. temperature increases moisture. AT e-15 *** Warmer 30 min. temperature decreases moisture.
11 Statistical Model (Intercept) < 2e-16 *** A flat area at 0 C results in 16% moisture. SlopePosn e-08 *** Upper slopes are drier. Aspect *** Increasing aspect bearing decreases moisture. Slope * Steeper areas are drier. AT e-13 *** Warmer 15 min. temperature increases moisture. AT e-15 *** Warmer 30 min. temperature decreases moisture.
12 Statistical Model (Intercept) < 2e-16 *** A flat area at 0 C results in 16% moisture. SlopePosn e-08 *** Upper slopes are drier. Aspect *** Increasing aspect bearing decreases moisture. Slope * Steeper areas are drier. AT e-13 *** Warmer 15 min. temperature increases moisture. AT e-15 *** Warmer 30 min. temperature decreases moisture.
13 Statistical Model (Intercept) < 2e-16 *** A flat area at 0 C results in 16% moisture. SlopePosn e-08 *** Upper slopes are drier. Aspect *** Increasing aspect bearing decreases moisture. Slope * Steeper areas are drier. AT e-13 *** Warmer 15 min. temperature increases moisture. AT e-15 *** Warmer 30 min. temperature decreases moisture.
14 Statistical Model (Intercept) < 2e-16 *** A flat area at 0 C results in 16% moisture. SlopePosn e-08 *** Upper slopes are drier. Aspect *** Increasing aspect bearing decreases moisture. Slope * Steeper areas are drier. AT e-13 *** Warmer 15 min. temperature increases moisture. AT e-15 *** Warmer 30 min. temperature decreases moisture.
15 Driest: Southern exposure High on the hillslope Easiest ignition, fastest spread Lightning strikes ridges Wettest: Northern exposure Valley bottom Natural firebreak
16 Issues: Only half the sites Missing topographic data Missing met. data Some topographic data suspect (Site 7) Representing aspect Future work: Other watersheds Veg. cover Aspect
17 Acknowledgements I would like to thank: My field crew: Max, Keala, Chris, Ari, Leanne, Ransom, Zack, Nina and Jenna Barb Bond s Airshed Group Adam Kennedy Alan Tepley Kari O Connell Desiree Tullos All the EISI participants for a great summer
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