Crop Production. Orange Production Unchanged from January Forecast. Special Note

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1 Crop Production ISSN: Released February 8, 2019, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Orange Production Unchanged from January Forecast Special Note This report contains information normally published in the January Crop Production report which was not issued due to the lapse in Federal funding. The additional estimates are December 1, 2018 Hay Stocks and January 1, 2019 forecasted production of the citrus crops. The United States all orange forecast for the season is 5.54 million tons, unchanged from last month but up 41 percent from the final utilization. The Florida all orange forecast, at 77.0 million boxes (3.47 million tons), is unchanged from last month but up 71 percent from last season s final utilization. Early, midseason, and Navel varieties in Florida are forecast at 32.0 million boxes (1.44 million tons), unchanged from last month but up 69 percent from last season s final utilization. The Florida Valencia orange forecast, at 45.0 million boxes (2.03 million tons), is unchanged from last month but up 73 percent from last season s final utilization. California and Texas orange production forecasts were carried forward from the January 1 forecast.

2 This report was approved on February 8, Secretary of Agriculture Designate Stephen L. Censky Agricultural Statistics Board Chairperson Joseph L. Parsons 2 Crop Production (February 2019)

3 Contents Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop States and United States: and Forecasted January 1, Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop States and United States: and Forecasted February 1, Sugarcane Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Use States and United States: 2017 and Hay Stocks on Farms States and United States: May 1 and December 1, 2017 and Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units United States: 2018 and Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units United States: 2018 and Fruits and Nuts Production in Domestic Units United States: 2018 and Fruits and Nuts Production in Metric Units United States: 2018 and December Weather Summary January Percent of Normal Precipitation Map January Departure from Normal Temperature Map January Weather Summary January Agricultural Summary Crop Comments Statistical Methodology Information Contacts Crop Production (February 2019) 3

4 Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop States and United States: and Forecasted January 1, 2019 [The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year] Crop and State Oranges California, all... Early, mid, and Navel 2... Valencia... Utilized production boxes 1 Utilized production ton equivalent (1,000 boxes) (1,000 boxes) (1,000 tons) (1,000 tons) 45,400 35,900 9,500 49,000 40,000 9,000 1,816 1, ,960 1, Florida, all... Early, mid, and Navel 2... Valencia... 44,950 18,950 26,000 77,000 32,000 45,000 2, ,170 3,465 1,440 2,025 Texas, all... Early, mid, and Navel 2... Valencia... 1,880 1, ,600 2, United States, all... Early, mid, and Navel 2... Valencia... 92,230 56,380 35, ,600 74,000 54,600 3,919 2,354 1,565 5,536 3,125 2,411 Grapefruit California... Florida, all... Red... White... Texas... 4,000 3,880 3, ,800 4,000 6,200 5,200 1,000 6, United States... 12,680 16, Tangerines and mandarins 3 California... Florida... 19, ,000 1, United States... 19,950 24, Lemons Arizona... California... 1,000 21,200 1,400 20, United States... 22,200 1 Net pounds per box: oranges in California-80, Florida-90, Texas-85; grapefruit in California-80, Florida-85, Texas-80; tangerines and mandarins in California-80, Florida-95; lemons Navel and miscellaneous varieties in California. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties in Florida and Texas. 3 Includes tangelos and tangors. 21, Crop Production (February 2019)

5 Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop States and United States: and Forecasted February 1, 2019 [The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year] Crop and State Oranges California, all 2... Early, mid, and Navel 3... Valencia... Utilized production boxes 1 Utilized production ton equivalent (1,000 boxes) (1,000 boxes) (1,000 tons) (1,000 tons) 45,400 35,900 9,500 49,000 40,000 9,000 1,816 1, ,960 1, Florida, all... Early, mid, and Navel 3... Valencia... 44,950 18,950 26,000 77,000 32,000 45,000 2, ,170 3,465 1,440 2,025 Texas, all 2... Early, mid, and Navel 3... Valencia... 1,880 1, ,600 2, United States, all... Early, mid, and Navel 3... Valencia... 92,230 56,380 35, ,600 74,000 54,600 3,919 2,354 1,565 5,536 3,125 2,411 Grapefruit California 2... Florida, all... Red... White... Texas ,000 3,880 3, ,800 4,000 6,000 5,000 1,000 6, United States... 12,680 16, Tangerines and mandarins 4 California 2... Florida... 19, ,000 1, United States... 19,950 24, Lemons 2 Arizona... California... 1,000 21,200 1,400 20, United States... 22,200 1 Net pounds per box: oranges in California-80, Florida-90, Texas-85; grapefruit in California-80, Florida-85, Texas-80; tangerines and mandarins in California-80, Florida-95; lemons Estimates for current year carried forward from January 1, 2019 forecast. 3 Navel and miscellaneous varieties in California. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties in Florida and Texas. 4 Includes tangelos and tangors. 21, Crop Production (February 2019) 5

6 Sugarcane Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Use States and United States: 2017 and 2018 Use and State For sugar Florida... Louisiana... Texas... Area harvested Yield per acre 1 Production (1,000 acres) (1,000 acres) (tons) (tons) (1,000 tons) (1,000 tons) ,237 13,455 1,490 16,753 14,782 1,290 United States ,182 32,825 For seed Florida... Louisiana... Texas , , United States ,056 1,929 For sugar and seed Florida... Louisiana... Texas ,942 14,744 1,552 17,448 15,968 1,338 United States ,238 34,754 1 Net tons. 6 Crop Production (February 2019)

7 Hay Stocks on Farms States and United States: May 1 and December 1, 2017 and 2018 State Alabama... Arizona... Arkansas... California... Colorado... Connecticut... Delaware... Florida... Georgia... Idaho... May 1 December (1,000 tons) (1,000 tons) (1,000 tons) (1,000 tons) , ,950 1,850 1, ,240 2,200 1, ,570 1,400 1, ,180 2,400 Illinois... Indiana... Iowa... Kansas... Kentucky... Louisiana... Maine... Maryland... Massachusetts... Michigan ,250 1, ,100 1,150 2,280 4,500 3, , ,060 4,300 3, Minnesota... Mississippi... Missouri... Montana... Nebraska... Nevada... New Hampshire... New Jersey... New Mexico... New York , , , ,100 3,650 4, ,430 2, ,200 4,200 4, ,400 North Carolina... North Dakota... Ohio... Oklahoma... Oregon... Pennsylvania... Rhode Island... South Carolina... South Dakota... Tennessee , , , , ,250 1,470 4,550 1,650 2, ,150 2,850 1,360 4,000 1,400 4,400 1,650 1, ,350 3,120 Texas... Utah... Vermont... Virginia... Washington... West Virginia... Wisconsin... Wyoming... 3, , ,900 1, ,050 1, ,650 1,550 4, ,850 1, ,750 1,450 United States... 24,400 15,348 84,422 79,055 Crop Production (February 2019) 7

8 Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units United States: 2018 and 2019 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2019 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] Crop Grains and hay Barley... Corn for grain 1... Corn for silage... Hay, all... Alfalfa... All other... Oats... Proso millet... Rice... Rye... Sorghum for grain 1... Sorghum for silage... Wheat, all... Winter... Durum... Other spring... Area planted Area harvested (1,000 acres) (1,000 acres) (1,000 acres) (1,000 acres) 2,543 89,129 2, ,946 2,011 5,690 47,800 32,535 2,065 13,200 31,290 1,978 81,740 6,113 52,839 16,608 36, , , ,605 24,742 1,967 12,896 Oilseeds Canola... Cottonseed... Flaxseed... Mustard seed... Peanuts... Rapeseed... Safflower... Soybeans for beans... Sunflower... Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops Cotton, all... Upland... American Pima... Sugarbeets... Sugarcane... Tobacco... Dry beans, peas, and lentils Austrian winter peas... Dry edible beans... Chickpeas, all... Large... Small... Dry edible peas... Lentils... Wrinkled seed peas... Potatoes and miscellaneous Hops... Maple syrup... Mushrooms... Peppermint oil... Potatoes, all... Spring... Summer... Fall... Spearmint oil... Sweet potatoes... Taro (Hawaii)... See footnote(s) at end of table. 1,990.7 (X) , ,196 1, , , , , , ,943.5 (X) , ,110 1, , , , , , continued 8 Crop Production (February 2019)

9 Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units United States: 2018 and 2019 (continued) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2019 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] Crop Grains and hay Barley... bushels Corn for grain... bushels Corn for silage... tons Hay, all... tons Alfalfa... tons All other... tons Oats... bushels Proso millet... bushels Rice 2... cwt Rye... bushels Sorghum for grain... bushels Sorghum for silage... tons Wheat, all... bushels Winter... bushels Durum... bushels Other spring... bushels Yield per acre Production , (1,000) (1,000) 153,082 14,420, , ,600 52,634 70,966 56,130 11, ,211 8, ,986 3,326 1,884,458 1,183,939 77, ,232 Oilseeds Canola... pounds Cottonseed... tons Flaxseed... bushels Mustard seed... pounds Peanuts... pounds Rapeseed... pounds Safflower... pounds Soybeans for beans... bushels Sunflower... pounds Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops Cotton, all 2... bales Upland 2... bales American Pima 2... bales Sugarbeets... tons Sugarcane... tons Tobacco... pounds Dry beans, peas, and lentils Austrian winter peas 2... cwt Dry edible beans 2... cwt Chickpeas, all 2... cwt Large 2... cwt Small 2... cwt Dry edible peas 2... cwt Lentils 2... cwt Wrinkled seed peas... cwt Potatoes and miscellaneous Hops... pounds Maple syrup... gallons Mushrooms... pounds Peppermint oil... pounds Potatoes, all... cwt Spring... cwt Summer... cwt Fall... cwt Spearmint oil... pounds Sweet potatoes... cwt Taro (Hawaii)... pounds Not available. (X) Not applicable. 1 Area planted for all purposes. 2 Yield in pounds. 1,861 (X) ,991 1,524 1, , , ,830 1,138 1,860 1,512 1,520 1,489 1,972 1,171 1, ,630 3,616,560 5, ,466 73,078 5,461,600 8, ,380 4,543,883 2,116,410 18, , ,145 34, , ,494 12,742 9,472 3,270 15,929 8, , , ,235 5, ,314 17,757 16, ,281 2,571 27,378 2,985 Crop Production (February 2019) 9

10 Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units United States: 2018 and 2019 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2019 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] Crop Grains and hay Barley... Corn for grain 1... Corn for silage... Hay, all 2... Alfalfa... All other... Oats... Proso millet... Rice... Rye... Sorghum for grain 1... Sorghum for silage... Wheat, all 2... Winter... Durum... Other spring... Area planted Area harvested (hectares) (hectares) (hectares) (hectares) 1,029,130 36,069,620 1,111, ,280 1,192, ,830 2,302,690 19,344,180 13,166, ,680 5,341,910 12,662, ,480 33,079,360 2,473,870 21,383,410 6,721,090 14,662, , ,090 1,179, ,480 2,048, ,840 16,027,750 10,012, ,030 5,218,880 Oilseeds Canola... Cottonseed... Flaxseed... Mustard seed... Peanuts... Rapeseed... Safflower... Soybeans for beans... Sunflower... Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops Cotton, all 2... Upland... American Pima... Sugarbeets... Sugarcane... Tobacco... Dry beans, peas, and lentils Austrian winter peas... Dry edible beans... Chickpeas 2... Large... Small... Dry edible peas... Lentils... Wrinkled seed peas... Potatoes and miscellaneous Hops... Maple syrup... Mushrooms... Peppermint oil... Potatoes, all 2... Spring... Summer... Fall... Spearmint oil... Sweet potatoes... Taro (Hawaii)... See footnote(s) at end of table. 805,620 (X) 84,180 41, ,890 2,310 67,790 36,096, ,500 5,705,720 5,604, , ,460 6, , , ,750 90, , , ,130 21,450 22, ,300 60, ,520 (X) 80,130 39, ,820 2,190 63,290 35,657, ,730 4,261,590 4,161, , , , ,940 4, , , ,200 88, , ,570 22,270 23, ,120 20,960 21, ,750 8,420 58, continued 10 Crop Production (February 2019)

11 Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units United States: 2018 and 2019 (continued) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2019 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] Crop Grains and hay Barley... Corn for grain... Corn for silage... Hay, all 2... Alfalfa... All other... Oats... Proso millet... Rice... Rye... Sorghum for grain... Sorghum for silage... Wheat, all 2... Winter... Durum... Other spring... Yield per hectare Production (metric tons) (metric tons) (metric tons) (metric tons) ,332, ,287, ,096, ,128,030 47,748,760 64,379, , ,950 10,170, ,180 9,271,070 3,017,300 51,286,540 32,221,540 2,103,410 16,961,600 Oilseeds Canola... Cottonseed... Flaxseed... Mustard seed... Peanuts... Rapeseed... Safflower... Soybeans for beans... Sunflower... Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops Cotton, all 2... Upland... American Pima... Sugarbeets... Sugarcane... Tobacco... Dry beans, peas, and lentils Austrian winter peas... Dry edible beans... Chickpeas, all 2... Large... Small... Dry edible peas... Lentils... Wrinkled seed peas... Potatoes and miscellaneous Hops... Maple syrup... Mushrooms... Peppermint oil... Potatoes, all 2... Spring... Summer... Fall... Spearmint oil... Sweet potatoes... Taro (Hawaii)... Not available. (X) Not applicable. 1 Area planted for all purposes. 2 Total may not add due to rounding (X) ,640,440 5,256, ,440 33,150 2,477,340 3, , ,664, ,990 4,003,950 3,831, ,870 30,068,640 31,528, ,870 5,620 1,700, , , , , ,380 17,640 48,490 20, ,050 2,440 20,607, , ,270 19,063,630 1,170 1,241,850 1,350 Crop Production (February 2019) 11

12 Fruits and Nuts Production in Domestic Units United States: 2018 and 2019 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2019 crop year, except citrus which is for the season. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] Crop Production Citrus 1 Grapefruit... 1,000 tons Lemons... 1,000 tons Oranges... 1,000 tons Tangerines and mandarins... 1,000 tons Noncitrus Apples, commercial... million pounds Apricots... tons Avocados... tons Bananas (Hawaii)... 1,000 pounds Blackberries (Oregon)... 1,000 pounds Blueberries, Cultivated... 1,000 pounds Blueberries, Wild (Maine)... 1,000 pounds Boysenberries (Oregon)... 1,000 pounds Cherries, Sweet... tons Cherries, Tart... million pounds Coffee (Hawaii)... 1,000 pounds Cranberries... barrel Dates... tons Figs (California)... tons Grapes... tons Kiwifruit (California)... tons Nectarines... tons Olives (California)... tons Papayas (Hawaii)... 1,000 pounds Peaches... tons Pears... tons Plums (California)... tons Prunes (California)... tons Raspberries, all... 1,000 pounds Strawberries... 1,000 cwt Nuts and miscellaneous Almonds, shelled (California)... 1,000 pounds Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon)... tons Macadamias (Hawaii)... 1,000 pounds Pecans, in-shell... 1,000 pounds Pistachios (California)... 1,000 pounds Walnuts, in-shell (California)... tons 1 Production years are and , , , , ,634,000 7,659, , ,200 80,000 31, ,450,000 52, , , , Crop Production (February 2019)

13 Fruits and Nuts Production in Metric Units United States: 2018 and 2019 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2018 crop year, except citrus which is for the season. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] Crop Citrus 1 Grapefruit... Lemons... Oranges... Tangerines and mandarins... Production (metric tons) 469, ,580 3,555, ,380 (metric tons) 606, ,550 5,022, ,150 Noncitrus Apples, commercial... Apricots... Avocados... Bananas (Hawaii)... Blackberries (Oregon)... Blueberries, Cultivated... Blueberries, Wild (Maine)... Boysenberries (Oregon)... Cherries, Sweet... Cherries, Tart... Coffee (Hawaii)... Cranberries... Dates... Figs (California)... Grapes... Kiwifruit (California)... Nectarines... Olives (California)... Papayas (Hawaii)... Peaches... Pears... Plums (California)... Prunes (California)... Raspberries, all... Strawberries... Nuts and miscellaneous Almonds, shelled (California)... Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon)... Macadamias (Hawaii)... Pecans, in-shell... Pistachios (California)... Walnuts, in-shell (California)... 1 Production years are and ,194,630 36, , , ,630 6,948, , ,590 72,570 1,440,830 1,111,300 47, , ,960 Crop Production (February 2019) 13

14 December Weather Summary A parade of storms provided plenty of precipitation in most parts of the country. Precipitation surpluses were most apparent across the Plains and the Southeast; both areas contended with multiple major weather systems. In the latter region, a mid-month deluge followed an early-season snowfall. Additional Southeastern storms during the second half of December pushed annual precipitation totals into record-setting territory and led to several rounds of mostly minor to moderate flooding. Acute wetness for both December and 2018 extended as far north as the Ohio Valley and the mid-atlantic. Meanwhile, wintry conditions across the Nation s mid-section peaked amid the holiday season, particularly during a post-christmas storm that delivered wind-driven snow from the southern High Plains into the upper Great Lakes region. Late-December precipitation eased short-term dryness on the southern Plains one of the few regions east of the Rockies with drought-related concerns. The Great Lakes region and Deep South Texas were among a handful of areas east of the Rockies reporting pockets of below-normal monthly temperatures. Warmth dominated the central and eastern United States, with December temperatures averaging at least 5ºF above normal across large sections of the northern Plains and upper Midwest. In fact, warmth also extended across much of the West, excluding portions of the northern Intermountain region. December precipitation was highly variable across the West. Relative to normal, monthly precipitation was greatest in the Northwest, northern Great Basin, and the southern Rockies. By early January, some of the lowest snowpack values, compared to typical amounts, were noted in southern Idaho. 14 Crop Production (February 2019)

15 Crop Production (February 2019) 15

16 January Weather Summary Most of the country continued to receive ample precipitation, with occasional heavy snow occurring from the northern and central Plains into the Northeast and periods of heavy rain soaking the South. However, mild weather on the northern High Plains eroded winter wheat s protective snow cover, while a substantial snow cover developed across the upper Midwest and interior Northeast. Late in the month, brutally cold weather engulfed the Midwest, setting all-time low temperature records in some locations and severely stressing livestock. High winds and periods of snow accompanied the Arctic blast, further disrupting the normal cycle of agricultural and municipal life. Although snow covered much of the Midwest late in the month, some soft red winter wheat fields in the southern Corn Belt were exposed to potential winterkill and soil heaving. Despite the late-month cold wave, significantly below-normal January temperatures were mostly limited to the upper Great Lakes States. Meanwhile, monthly temperatures averaged at least 5 F above normal across parts of the West and the northern High Plains. Western precipitation was highly variable, but generally above normal from California to the central Rockies, and below normal in the southern Rockies and the Northwest. Heavy January precipitation in the Sierra Nevada added 10 inches (from 7 to 17 inches) to the average water equivalency of the high-elevation snowpack a boost from approximately 70 to 100 percent of normal. In contrast, end-of-january snowpack ranged from 50 to 75 percent of average in many basins in the Cascades and southern Idaho. January Agricultural Summary Average monthly temperatures were generally below normal across much of the Great Lakes, Midwest, New England, Rocky Mountains, and Southwest, which recorded weekly average temperatures more than 4 F below normal. Conversely, warmer conditions prevailed in parts of the southern Great Plains, Pacific Northwest, the South, California, and Florida with temperatures reaching more than 2 F above normal in some areas. Precipitation levels were above normal across the eastern United States with areas in the Mid-Atlantic, Mississippi Valley, New England, and Florida receiving more than 2 inches of rain. In contrast, areas of the Southeast, Pacific Northwest, and the Southwest remained abnormally to extremely dry, receiving less than 2 inches of rain. Crop Comments Grapefruit: The United States grapefruit crop is forecast at 668,000 tons, down 1 percent from last month but up 29 percent from last season s final utilization. In Florida, expected production, at 6.00 million boxes (256,000 tons), is down 3 percent from last month but up 55 percent from last year. California and Texas grapefruit production forecasts were carried forward from the January 1 forecast. Lemons: The January forecast for the United States lemon crop is 856,000 tons, unchanged from October but down 4 percent from last season s final utilization. The California production forecast, at 20.0 million boxes (800,000 tons), is unchanged from October but down 6 percent from the season. Tangerines and mandarins: The United States tangerine and mandarin crop is forecast at 968,000 tons, down 1 percent from last month but up 20 percent from last season s final utilization. The Florida forecast, at 1.00 million boxes (48,000 tons), is unchanged from last month but up 33 percent from the previous year. The California tangerine and mandarin forecast was carried forward from the January 1 forecast. Florida citrus: Temperatures were typical in the citrus growing region for January. Maximum high temperatures ranged from the low 60s to mid-70s reaching the low to mid-80s only a few days. Rainfall was fairly evenly distributed in the citrus growing region. With the exception of one monitored station, all rain gauges received between three and five inches 16 Crop Production (February 2019)

17 of rainfall, or just over historical averages. Much of the month was dry with the majority of the rain reported on the last week of the month. According to the January 31 st, 2019 United States Drought Monitor, dry conditions have lessened in the citrus growing region. The Western area and Northern area remained drought free. Lee and Charlotte counties in the Southern area were now drought free. Only a portion of Highlands and Osceola counties in the Central area were under abnormally dry conditions. The Indian River District remained under moderate drought. Processing plants were running field run oranges and grapefruit packinghouse eliminations (PHE). Grove caretakers continued with normal spray programs, fertilizing, applying herbicide, hedging and taking care of young trees. Tangerine harvest included several of the newer varieties, most notably Orri, Tango, Autumn Honey, Juicy Crunch and Roe tangerines. Murcott (Honey Tangerine) harvest was just beginning. California citrus: Lemons, Valencia oranges, and Finger limes were harvested. Navel oranges were picked and Navel oranges, Cara Cara, grapefruits, finger limes, and lemons continued to be packed. Growers treated citrus groves for fungal diseases in small areas of several counties to maintain export quality. Pushed out citrus groves were prepared for planting. Citrus harvest was delayed by rain in some regions. Warm weather in October and November resulted in quality issues for navel oranges while good lemon quality was reported. California noncitrus fruits and nuts: Pruning continued in vineyards with wine, raisin, and table grapes. Pomegranates were still being harvested throughout the month. Deciduous fruit orchards continued to be pruned and the brush shredded as weather conditions permitted. Older fruit orchards and vineyards were removed and areas prepared for replanting. Nutrients were applied to soil as conditions permitted. Harvested orchard floors were cleaned and your trees were irrigated. Pistachios, almonds, and pecans continued to be packed and shipped primarily to foreign markets. Nut orchards continued to be pruned. Sugarcane: Production of sugarcane for sugar and seed in 2018 is forecast at 34.8 million tons, up 5 percent from last year. Producers intend to harvest 908,200 acres for sugar and seed during the 2018 crop year, up slightly from last year. Expected yield for sugar and seed is forecast at 38.3 tons per acre, up 1.5 tons from Hay stocks on farms: All hay stored on United States farms as of December 1, 2018 totaled 79.1 million tons, down 6 percent from the previous December. Disappearance from May 1, December 1, 2018 totaled 59.9 million tons, compared with 68.2 million tons for the same period a year earlier. This marks the lowest December 1 hay stocks since the drought of 2012 and second lowest since Crop Production (February 2019) 17

18 Statistical Methodology Survey procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the February 1 forecast was conducted in Florida. In August and September last year, the number of bearing trees and the number of fruit per tree was determined. In August and subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are conducted, which combined with the previous components are used to develop the current forecast of production. California and Texas conduct grower survey on a quarterly basis in October, January, April, and July. California conducts an objective measurement survey in September for Navel oranges and in March for Valencia oranges. Estimating procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. Reports from growers in California and Texas were also used for setting estimates. These three States submit their analyses of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published February 1 forecast. Revision policy: The February 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits Summary released in August. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home use. Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the February 1 production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the February 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the February 1 orange production forecast is 5.1 percent. However, if you exclude the three abnormal production years (one freeze season and three hurricane seasons), the Root Mean Square Error is 5.5 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current orange production forecast will not be above or below the final estimates by more than 5.1 percent, or 5.5 percent excluding abnormal seasons. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 8.8 percent, or 9.5 percent excluding abnormal seasons. Changes between the February 1 orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged 322,000 tons (336,000 tons excluding abnormal seasons), ranging from 18,000 tons to 843,000 tons regardless of exclusions. The February 1 forecast for oranges has been below the final estimate 8 times and above 12 times (below 8 times and above 8 times, excluding abnormal seasons). The difference does not imply that the February 1 forecast this year is likely to understate or overstate final production. 18 Crop Production (February 2019)

19 Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity statisticians in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. inquiries may be sent to Lance Honig, Chief, Crops Branch... (202) Travis Thorson, Head, Field Crops Section... (202) David Colwell Current Agricultural Industrial Reports... (202) Chris Hawthorn Corn, Flaxseed, Proso Millet... (202) James Johanson County Estimates, Hay... (202) Jeff Lemmons Oats, Soybeans... (202) Sammy Neal Peanuts, Rice... (202) Jannety Mosley Crop Weather, Barley... (202) Jean Porter Rye, Wheat... (202) Chris Singh Cotton, Cotton Ginnings, Sorghum... (202) Travis Thorson Sunflower, Other Oilseeds... (202) Jorge Garcia-Pratts, Head, Fruits, Vegetables and Special Crops Section... (202) Vincent Davis Apricots, Bananas, Cherries, Garlic, Lettuce, Mint, Papaya, Pears, Strawberries, Tomatoes... (202) Fleming Gibson Avocados, Cauliflower, Celery, Citrus, Coffee, Dates, Figs, Kiwifruit, Nectarines, Olives, Green Peas, Taro, Watermelons... (202) Greg Lemmons Blackberries, Blueberries, Boysenberries, Cranberries, Cucumbers, Potatoes, Pumpkins, Raspberries, Squash, Sugarbeets, Sugarcane, Sweet Potatoes... (202) Dan Norris Artichokes, Austrian Winter Peas, Cantaloupes, Dry Beans, Dry Edible Peas, Honeydews, Lentils, Mushrooms, Peaches, Snap Beans... (202) Daphne Schauber Bell Peppers, Broccoli, Cabbage, Chile Peppers, Floriculture, Grapes, Hops, Maple Syrup, Tree Nuts, Spinach... (202) Joshua Bates Apples, Asparagus, Carrots, Lima Beans, Onions, Plums, Prunes, Sweet Corn, Tobacco... (202) Crop Production (February 2019) 19

20 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: Both national and state specific reports are available via a free subscription. To set-up this free subscription, visit and click on National or State in upper right corner above search box to create an account and select the reports you would like to receive. Cornell s Mann Library has launched a new website housing NASS s and other agency s archived reports. The new website, All subscriptions containing reports will be sent from the new website, To continue receiving the reports via , you will have to go to the new website, create a new account and re-subscribe to the reports. If you need instructions to set up an account or subscribe, they are located at: You should whitelist notifications@usdaesmis.library.cornell.edu in your client to avoid the s going into spam/junk folders. For more information on NASS surveys and reports, call the NASS Agricultural Statistics Hotline at (800) , 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, or nass@nass.usda.gov. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination against its customers, employees, and applicants for employment on the basis of race, color, national origin, age, disability, sex, gender identity, religion, reprisal, and where applicable, political beliefs, marital status, familial or parental status, sexual orientation, or all or part of an individual's income is derived from any public assistance program, or protected genetic information in employment or in any program or activity conducted or funded by the Department. (Not all prohibited bases will apply to all programs and/or employment activities.) If you wish to file a Civil Rights program complaint of discrimination, complete the USDA Program Discrimination Complaint Form (PDF), found online at or at any USDA office, or call (866) to request the form. You may also write a letter containing all of the information requested in the form. Send your completed complaint form or letter to us by mail at U.S. Department of Agriculture, Director, Office of Adjudication, 1400 Independence Avenue, S.W., Washington, D.C , by fax (202) or at program.intake@usda.gov.

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