Evaluation of a system for the scanning of Eurostat s data to detect trends in trade 1

Transcription

1 Supporting Publications 2011: EN-219 SUMMARY TECHNICAL REPORT OF EFSA Evaluation of a system for the scanning of Eurostat s data to detect trends in trade 1 European Food Safety Authority 2, 3 European Food Safety Authority (EFSA), Parma, Italy The requirements for a system for automatic scanning of Eurostat s Comext database in order to contribute to the identification of emerging risks, is described in a previous Technical Report (EFSA, 2010). It was suggested that such a system, covering EFSA s mandate should provide alerts (or signals) to the users, indicating for example i) high increase of the volume of a given product over time to a specific MS or EU in total ii) new trade partners iii) new food or feed commodities entering the EU. This report describes the response of two scanning methods (namely the SITF-ARIADNE and FSpike software) developed by the European Commission (EC), in particular the Joint Research Centre (JRC) in collaboration with the European Anti-Fraud Office (OLAF) to a dataset of food trade data downloaded from Comext. Most of the obtained signals presented an upward importation pattern of a food product from a specific origin into the EU in 2009 compared to the previous years. Some signals related to low importation quantities were rejected as weak, while others indicated cases of new trade partners. In some cases, the same signal was obtained by both methods. The outcome of the EC scanning methods was produced in a timely manner and is in accordance with the above mentioned requirements, although some modifications are needed on the presentation of the results to enable the faster evaluation of the signals. It is noted that the conclusions derived must be treated with caution as the data sources used have limitations and weaknesses. Further investigation using other potential sources of information is required to verify the pertinence of such signals. KEY WORDS Eurostat Comext database, emerging risk 1 On request from EFSA, Question EFSA-Q , approved on 16 December Correspondence: emrisk@efsa.europa.eu 3 Acknowledgement: EFSA wishes to thank EC-JRC, IPSC staff: Spyros Arsenis, Vytis Kopustinskas and Domenico Perrotta and EFSA staff: Tilemachos Goumperis and Tobin Robinson for the support provided to this scientific output. Suggested citation: European Food Safety Authority; Evaluation of a system for the scanning of Eurostat s data to detect trends in trade. Supporting Publications 2011: EN-219. [90 pp.] Available online: European Food Safety Authority,

2 TABLE OF CONTENTS Summary... 1 Table of contents... 2 Background... 3 Terms of reference... 3 Introduction... 4 Methods... 6 Results... 8 Discussion... 9 Conclusions Recommendations References Appendix I: List of 62 signals obtained by the SITF procedure Appendix II: Graphs obtained by the SITF method Appendix III: List of 131 signals obtained by the FS method Appendix IV: Graphs obtained by the fs method Abbreviations

3 BACKGROUND The Emerging Risks Unit has the self mandate to assess and develop various tools to detect and monitor signals of (re)emerging risks in food and feed. In particular, it is requested to screen the Eurostat Comext database (EFSA-M ) for trade volumes of selected food and feed commodities and to disseminate regular reports. TERMS OF REFERENCE From the above mentioned mandate, the EMRISK unit is requested to; 1. Set up a system for downloading and analysing the Eurostat Comext database data for the purpose of detecting signals of emerging risks: 1.1 Set up a system for automated downloading and analysis of various data in the Comext database; 1.2 Report and assess the signals found in the Eurostat Comext database. This will be done in first instance in ad-hoc unit meetings and when appropriate in task force meetings (primary filter). The task force consists of EFSA staff from the science directorates; 1.3 Disseminate the information to the appropriate Units and Panels when relevant signals are detected; 1.4 Assess the efficiency of the Eurostat Comext database to detect and monitor signals of emerging risks; 1.5 In urgent situations provide other Units and Panels with most recent available trade data. 2. Other potential databases: Characterise other databases (i.e. UN Comtrade, OLAF, TRACES), describe their potential usefulness for the identification of emerging risks and establish procedures for access by EFSA staff, as appropriate. To achieve these goals it is essential for the Emerging Risks Unit to set up a close collaboration with Eurostat, OLAF and DG SANCO (regarding the TRACES system). Close collaboration is also needed with other units in the EFSA for selecting commodities that will be downloaded and developing the procedures to analyse the data from these databases. A selection of commodities could be done based on signals coming from the RASFF and the media monitoring. Analysis and reporting of information from the Eurostat Comext and UN Comtrade databases for trade volumes of selected food and feed commodities were started in June A Technical Report with specific case studies of trade data of food commodities was published in February 2010 (EFSA, 2010) assessing the potential of trade data to identify emerging risks. This report addresses Terms of Reference 1.1, 1.2, 1.4 and describes the response of two scanning methods developed by the European Commission (EC), in particular the Joint Research Centre (JRC) and in collaboration with the European Anti-Fraud Office (OLAF) to a dataset downloaded from Comext. The report also explores whether the signals obtained are useful for the identification of emerging risks in the food and feed chain. 3

4 INTRODUCTION At the EU level, Eurostat s Comext database reports trade statistics of product mobility between Member States (MSs) of the EU and between MSs and third countries. The database is accessible to the public through Eurostat s web page 4. The Comext database has been found to be a useful tool that could assist in the identification of emerging risks in combination with data coming from other sources, as was highlighted in a previous Technical report (EFSA, 2010). Trade pathways are changing over time and such consideration may be useful in the anticipation of the introduction of hazards, particularly plant or animal diseases. Also when the import profile of a MS or the EU in total changes, the exposure to hazards may also alter. As an example, if rice from a specific country is frequently contaminated with ochratoxin A (this may be indicated through notifications in the Rapid Alert System for Food and Feed) and imports from this country increase over time, EU rice consumers could be exposed to this hazard to a greater extent. Imports from new or traditional trade partners constitute a potential vehicle for the transmission of new plant diseases to European cultivation. For example, for their pest risk assessment on Guignardia citricarpa Kiely, citrus black spot fungus, the Panel on Plant Health used Eurostat import data of citrus fruits from South Africa. The Panel concluded that G. citricarpa is able to survive transport and storage and that the importation of citrus fruit from infested areas of South Africa is a possible pathway for the introduction of this pest into the EU cultivations (EFSA, 2008). The above mentioned Technical report (EFSA, 2010) included recommendations for the requirements of a system covering EFSA s mandate for automatic scanning of the Eurostat Comext database. Such a system should provide alerts, indicating for example i) high increase of the volume of a given product over time to a specific MS or EU in total ii) new trade partners iii) new food or feed commodities entering the EU. The same report also discussed the current work in other European institutions. In collaboration with OLAF, the JRC of the EC has designed and is maintaining the Automated Monitoring Tool (AMT) on external trade. Most of this work relates to the Comext database. This tool is in use by OLAF and partners of OLAF in the MSs for the protection of EU s budget, agriculture and customs. The AMT comprises two parts: ARIADNE, a set of SAS macros, driven by graphical user interfaces to produce the signals of interest (spikes of trade quantities and price outliers of traded goods); THESEUS, a website where results (tables and graphs) are published. The website has various features to facilitate user navigation and data export. At the current stage, THESEUS has some limitations for helping EMRISK to identify trade trends of interest, which are: It is using only the Combined menclature (CN) trade classification that in some cases is too detailed in terms of food safety; THESEUS is not interactive, so the user cannot make aggregates of code commodities, countries or time periods; 4 4

5 THESEUS applies fixed thresholds. EMRISK has had access to THESEUS since August Access to ARIADNE has been given for a test trial in vember 2010 and due to IT limitations only from JRC premises with the support of JRC staff. For the present work, the SITF procedure was followed in ARIADNE. The application used is referred as SITF-ARIADNE in the content of this report, in order to differentiate it from the other capabilities that ARIADNE has. After concluding the test trial, JRC provided EFSA with information explaining the software parameters used and the results obtained from SITF-ARIADNE (personal communication). Moreover, JRC provided EFSA with a version of another outlier detection software, the FSpike, in January In order to explore the capability of SITF-ARIADNE and FSpike software to help EFSA to identify changes in trade relevant to the identification of emerging risks, a selection of Comext data was prepared by EFSA and uploaded to SITF-ARIADNE and the FSpike software. The data were from a different commodity nomenclature than the one used by OLAF. The Standard International Trade Classification (SITC) was used, which classifies the commodities according to their stage of production, market practises, the uses of the product and the importance of the commodity in terms of world trade. Both SITF-ARIADNE and the FSpike software produced tables detailing the trade spikes and their relevant graphical depiction. The objectives of this Technical Report are to present the response of SITF-ARIADNE and FSpike to the given dataset and to explore whether the signals obtained are useful for EFSA. 5

6 METHODS Trade data were downloaded from Eurostat Comext database 5. The variables of the dataset used were: Data were from the SITC, covering 4 group commodities (from 01 to 04) at the two digit level or approximately 160 food commodities at the upper five digit level (see Table 1); Period: for the SITF, monthly data from January 2005 to December 2009; for the FS, monthly data from January 2007 to December The difference in time coverage was due to the functioning of the existing software used by JRC and OLAF; Country of origin: all countries outside the EU; Destination: EU (total imports into the 27 MSs). The data were fed to the SITF-ARIADNE and FSpike software: The SITF procedure in ARIADNE runs on twelve month aggregates of quantities traded; the aggregate of the last 12 months (2009) was compared to the quantity of the previous four 12- month periods (2005 to 2008). Once the software identified a significant increase in trade in the last 12 month period, this signal was included in the list of results and a graphical output of trade over the 5 year period was generated. FSpike software uses the forward search (FS) outlier detection method. The statistical model of the data used is based on linear regression and takes into account linear trend and monthly seasonal effect. The presence of seasonality is tested by using F-test for model selection between two nested models. The FS method detects upward and downward outliers (spikes) throughout the whole time period of a series of a POD (product/origin/destination), but only those containing upward spikes during the last 12 month period are currently classified and displayed. Some signals identified by both methods were based on relative low importation quantities. In order to have a more robust and manageable group of signals, when the imports of a commodity did not exceed the threshold of twenty tonnes at least for one month, this signal was not considered. Some signals are highlighted as possible indicators of new trade partners. They refer to cases in which the traded quantity was almost zero for the period and for the SITC and FS methods respectively, but increased in

7 Table 1: Commodities related to food and feed by the Standard International Trade Classification (SITC). In grey, the commodity groups covered by this exercise i.e. from 01 to 04. Code Name 0 Food and live animals 00 Live animals Description: Live animals other than animals of division Meat, meat preparations 02 Dairy products, bird eggs 03 Fish, crustaceans, mollusc Description: Fish (not marine mammals), crustaceans, molluscs and aquatic invertebrates, and preparations thereof 04 Cereals, cereal preparations 05 Vegetables and fruit 06 Sugar, sugar preparations, honey 07 Coffee, tea, cocoa, spices and manufactures thereof 08 Animal feed stuff Description: Feeding stuff for animals (not including unmilled cereals) 09 Miscellaneous edible products and preparations 1 Beverages and tobacco 7

8 RESULTS 62 signals were obtained from the SITF method (see Annexes I and II). Out of these 62 signals, 53 signals identified an increased importation in 2009 compared to the previous four years, whereas 9 signals were rejected as weak signals related to low importation quantity. The FS method identified 131 signals (see Annexes III and IV). Out of these 131 signals, 76 signals were related to increased importation in 2009 compared to the previous two years, whereas 55 signals were linked to low importation quantity and therefore rejected as weak signals. In 20 cases, both the SITF and FS methods identified the same signal. Some of the signals which showed increased importation were characterised as cases where the country of origin was a new trade partner for the given product in 2009, i.e.7 and 11 signals from the SITF and the FS procedures respectively. In four cases, the same pattern was identified by both methods. A description of some representative signals follows, and their evaluation and the relevant graphs are given in the above mentioned Annexes. In all cases, the number in parentheses refers to the signal number and the prefix indicates the method used i.e. SITF or FS. The yearly traded quantities given below have been manually extracted from Eurostat Comext database, as SITF and FS methods did not provide them automatically. Imports of edible offal of swine, fresh or chilled from Switzerland have been steadily increasing during the period 2005 to 2009, accounting for 448 tonnes in 2005 and for 1,640 tonnes in 2009 (signal SITF-8). Imports of birds' eggs, in shell, fresh, preserved or cooked from rway accounted between 9 tonnes and 16 tonnes from 2005 to 2008 and increased to 88 tonnes in 2009 (signal SITF-22 and signal FS-20). Imports of salmonidae, frozen (excluding livers and roes) from Turkey have been steadily rising from 2005 to 2008 and increased almost two-fold from 2008 to 2009, to 518 tonnes (signal SITF-27 and FS-31). Imports of broken rice from Vietnam were 49, 31 and 15 tonnes in 2005, 2006 and 2007 respectively and increased to 244 and 1,265 tonnes in 2008 and 2009 respectively (signal SITF-59). Importation of maize, seed from Chile showed seasonality from 2005 to 2009; most of the importation has been taking place from March to July every year. However, there was a notable increase of the yearly traded volume; imports accounted between 815 and 1,617 tonnes a year from to 2005 to 2008, but rose to 3,095 tonnes in 2009 (signal SITF-60). China emerged as a new trade partner of the EU for the product meat and offal (other than liver) of poultry of subgroup 001.4, prepared or preserved in 2009, when imports accounted for 720 tonnes, while the annual quantity for the period 2005 to 2008 accounted between 2 and 24 tonnes (signal SITF-13 and signal FS-10). 8

9 DISCUSSION Most of the signals obtained from SITF-ARIADNE and the FSpike software presented an upward importation pattern in 2009 compared to the previous years i.e. 53 out of 62 and 76 out of 131 signals received from the SITF and FS methods respectively. Although the graphs from these two methods have different layout and provide different information, they both enable the user to quickly decide if the signal indicates an increased importation pattern. In some cases, a further search was needed in order to perform the evaluation of the signal e.g. check manually the yearly importation quantities or the county of origin. Whilst some adjustments of the dataset downloaded from Eurostat s Comext database were needed in order for it to be compatible with the existing software developed by JRC, the output (graphs and tables) of the SITF and FS methods was produced in less than one working day. SITF-ARIADNE and the FSpike software were fed with trade data in a commodity classification other than the CN used by JRC and OLAF, namely, SITC. The inability to do this was one of the main limitations identified by EMRISK when THESEUS was used (EFSA, 2010). The dataset scanned by both methods was the same in terms of product commodities, destination (i.e. the EU) and countries of origin, but different in the period screened, covering 3 and 5 years for the FS the SITF methods respectively. This variation of the time period did not appear to limit the detection of cases showing an increased importation pattern; for EFSA, a Eurostat Comext scanning system working in this time frame (i.e. from 3 to 5 years) would be sufficient. A major limitation for the use of these data in the identification of emerging risks is that a link has to be made between the commodity being imported and a potential hazard. This would require a further step, combining the trade data with data coming from other sources. The Scientific Assessment Support Unit (SAS) of EFSA has outsourced a project named Commodity based hazard identification protocol for emerging diseases in plants and animals (EFSA-M ). Two of the general objectives of this project are (i) to develop a commodity based hazard identification process suitable for biological hazards in plants and animals that could be introduced into the EU through trade and (ii) to develop a decision tree that can be applied in a timescale suitable for emerging risks. The deliverable of this project is due in spring EFSA could use the outcome of the scanning methods described in this report i.e. a list of upward trade patterns for food or feed commodities and apply the decision tree of the SAS project with a view to quick hazard identification in plants and animals due to importation into the EU. Signals related to a low-traded quantity were not considered important. Although this procedure leads to a manageable number of signals to deal with, it has the potential of rejecting important ones, particularly early, small, signals. The threshold applied for this exercise i.e. having at least twenty tonnes imported in a month, is arbitrary, as the same quantity has different importance in different food commodities. As an example, the signal related to caviar or caviar substitutes prepared from fish eggs from South Korea (identified by both methods: SITF-52 and FS-68) might be of importance as caviar is an expensive product consumed in small quantities. On the other hand, cereals such as rice and products thereof are staple foods and large amounts are expected to be imported from third countries into the EU. The signal FS-80 indicates an increase of milled rice 6 from Japan in 2009; however, a maximum monthly importation of 55 tonnes should not be considered as important, if it is compared, for example, to the importation of the same product from Cambodia, the monthly imports of which accounted for 1136 tonnes in 2009 (signal FS-81). 6 Full name: Rice, semi-milled or wholly milled, whether or not polished, glazed, parboiled or converted (excluding broken rice) ; commodity of the SITC. 9

10 Whilst a modest increase in importation from an existing importer has little consequence, the signals related to new trade partners could be of particular importance as they can constitute a potential vehicle for the transmission of new or different hazards into the EU, even if the imported quantity is relative small. It is, however, expected that there will be fluctuations in food imports without necessarily posing a food safety risk. For this exercise, the evaluation and analysis of the signals were based on judgment of one person with a background in food science. A more complete and transparent approach would possibly include a group of experts familiar with the food chain and the potential hazards related to each one of the commodities found in the list. After using both methods to scan a dataset of around 100,000 combinations of different product/origin/destination over time, it appears that the two methods are complementary, with both similar and different signals being identified by each method. This would suggest that for the best coverage, one should use both methods to have a wider picture of changes in trade. CONCLUSIONS In order to explore the capability of SITF-ARIADNE and FSpike software to help EFSA to identify changes in trade potentially relevant for the identification of emerging risks, a selection of Comext data has been prepared by EFSA and uploaded to the SITF-ARIADNE and the FSpike software and analysed using two different methods i.e. the SITF and FS methods respectively. Most of the obtained signals presented an upward importation pattern in 2009 compared to the previous years. Some signals related to low importation quantities were rejected as weak, while others indicated cases of new trade partners. The outcome of the SITF and FS methods is in accordance with the ESFA requirements for a system for automatic scanning of Eurostat s Comext database in order to contribute to the identification of emerging risks. However, some modifications are needed on the presentation (tables and graphs) of the results to enable the faster evaluation of the signals. RECOMMENDATIONS If the investigation of emerging risks through the analysis of raw, indirect data is an objective of EFSA, collaboration with JRC to develop the existing trade data scanning tool in order to fulfil EFSA s requirements should be considered. Running the tool with the Comext data related to food and feed, using both procedures tested in the present work, once or twice a year would be sufficient. Once the upward importation trends are identified with a scanning tool, a system or a group of experts should be in place for the interpretation of the output and the fast identification of potential hazards via importation. Such a system could be the outcome of the ongoing project of the SAS unit of EFSA named Commodity based hazard identification protocol for emerging diseases in plants and animals. EFSA could combine the outcome of the scanning methods described in this report with the decision tree of the SAS project with a view to quick pest and pathogen identification due to importation into the EU. 10

11 REFERENCES EFSA, Scientific Opinion of the Panel on Plant Heath on a request from the European Commission on Guignardia citricarpa Kiely. The EFSA Journal, 925, < =true EFSA, 2010; Collection and routine analysis of import surveillance data with a view to identification of emerging risks. The EFSA Journal, 8 (3). 11

12 Appendices APPENDIX I: LIST OF 62 SIGNALS OBTAINED BY THE SITF PROCEDURE Signal Number Product commodity (code and name) Origin 7 Is the signal considered as an increased importation pattern? Explanation if the answer to the question of the previous column is no or other remarks Detected by FS? If yes, the relevant FS signal number is given SITF ; Meat of bovine animals, frozen, boneless AU Yes SITF ; Meat of swine, frozen JP Yes SITF ; Meat of swine, frozen RU Yes Yes; FS-3 SITF ; Poultry not cut in pieces, frozen IL Yes Yes; FS-4 SITF-5 SITF-6 SITF-7 SITF ; Poultry cuts and offal (other than liver), frozen 01240; Meat of horses, asses, mules or hinnies, fresh, chilled or frozen 01251; Edible offal of bovine animals, fresh or chilled 01253; Edible offal of swine, fresh or chilled CH Yes AU Yes NZ Yes CH Yes SITF ; Edible offal of swine, frozen RU Yes Yes; FS-5 SITF ; Snails (other than sea snails) MK Yes SITF ; Hams, shoulders and cuts thereof, of swine, with bone in, salted, dried RU Low quantity imported SITF-12 SITF-13 SITF-14 SITF-15 SITF ; Meat of bovine animals, salted, in brine, dried or smoked 01740; Meat and offal (other than liver) of poultry of subgroup 001.4, prepared or preserved, n.e.s ; Meat and offal (other than liver) of poultry of subgroup 001.4, prepared or preserved, n.e.s ; Meat and offal (other than liver) of poultry of subgroup 001.4, prepared or preserved, n.e.s ; Meat and offal (other than liver), of swine, prepared or preserved, n.e.s. CH Yes CN Yes New trade partner HR Yes JP Yes New trade partner Yes; FS-10 Yes; FS-11 CH Yes Yes; FS-13 7 Countries by ISO 3166; 12

13 Signal Number SITF-17 SITF-18 SITF-19 SITF-20 Product commodity (code and name) 01760; Meat and offal (other than liver), of bovine animals, prepared or preserved, n.e.s ; Other prepared or preserved meat or meat offal (including preparations of blood of any animal) 02249; Products consisting of natural milk constituents, n.e.s ; Grated or powdered cheese, of all kinds 02491; Fresh cheese, including whey SITF-21 cheese, and curd 02510; Birds' eggs, in shell, fresh, SITF-22 preserved or cooked Origin 7 AU Is the signal considered as an increased importation pattern? Explanation if the answer to the question of the previous column is no or other remarks Low quantity imported Detected by FS? If yes, the relevant FS signal number is given US Yes NZ Yes Yes; FS-16 CH Yes CH Yes NO Yes Yes; FS-20 SITF ; Egg albumin AR Yes Yes; FS-22 SITF ; Egg albumin CH SITF-25 SITF-26 SITF-27 SITF-28 SITF ; Salmonidae, fresh or chilled (excluding livers and roes) 03418; Other fish, fresh or chilled (excluding livers and roes) 03421; Salmonidae, frozen (excluding livers and roes) 03424; Herrings, sardines, sardinella, brislings or sprats, frozen (excluding livers and roes) 03425; Cod, frozen (excluding livers and roes) 03426; Mackerel (scombrids), frozen SITF-30 (excluding livers and roes) 03426; Mackerel (scombrids), frozen SITF-31 (excluding livers and roes) 03426; Mackerel (scombrids), frozen SITF-32 (excluding livers and roes) SITF ; Other fish, frozen (excluding livers and roes) Low quantity imported US Yes NO Yes Yes; FS-29 TR Yes Yes; FS-31 NO Yes NO Yes FO Yes KR Yes Yes; FS-39 NO Yes NO Yes SITF ; Fish fillets, frozen AG Yes SITF-35 SITF-36 SITF ; Fish fillets and other fish meat, fresh or chilled 03451; Fish fillets and other fish meat, fresh or chilled 03455; Fish meat (other than fillets), frozen IS Yes NO Yes NO Yes 13

14 Signal Number SITF-38 SITF-39 SITF-40 SITF-41 SITF-42 Product commodity (code and name) 03511; Cod (Gadus morhua, Gadus ogac, Gadus macrocephalus), not in fillets, dried, whether or not salted 03540; Fish liver and roes, dried, smoked, salted or in brine 03620; Crustaceans, other than frozen, including flours, meals and pellets of crustaceans, fit for human consumption 03620; Crustaceans, other than frozen, including flours, meals and pellets of crustaceans, fit for human consumption 03631; Oysters, fresh, chilled, frozen, dried, salted or in brine Origin 7 IS Is the signal considered as an increased importation pattern? Explanation if the answer to the question of the previous column is no or other remarks Low quantity imported Detected by FS? If yes, the relevant FS signal number is given CN Yes CN Yes Yes; FS-52 GL Yes US Low quantity imported SITF-43 SITF-44 SITF-45 SITF-46 SITF ; Cuttlefish, octopus and squid, fresh or chilled 03633; Cuttlefish, octopus and squid, fresh or chilled 03635; Other molluscs and aquatic invertebrates, fresh or chilled 03637; Cuttlefish, octopus and squid, frozen, dried, salted or in brine; flours, meals and pellets thereof, fit for human consumption 03639; Other molluscs and aquatic invertebrates, frozen, dried, salted or in brine, including flours, meals and pellets of aquatic invertebrates other than crustaceans, fit for human consumption AL Yes Yes; FS-54 PH IN Low quantity imported Low quantity imported MR Yes TR Yes Yes; FS-60 SITF ; Herrings, sardines, sardinella and brislings or sprats, whole or in pieces, but not minced VN Low quantity imported SITF ; Mackerel, prepared or preserved, whole or in pieces, but not minced CN Yes SITF ; Mackerel, prepared or preserved, whole or in pieces, but not minced CV Yes New trade partner SITF ; Other fish, prepared or preserved, whole or in pieces, but not minced MA Yes SITF ; Caviar and caviar substitutes prepared from fish eggs KR Low quantity imported Yes; FS-68 SITF ; Caviar and caviar substitutes prepared from fish eggs RU Yes Yes; FS-70 14

15 Signal Number SITF-54 SITF-55 SITF-56 SITF-57 Product commodity (code and name) 04220; Rice, husked but not further prepared (cargo rice or brown rice) 04231; Rice, semi-milled or wholly milled, whether or not polished, glazed, parboiled or converted (excluding broken rice) 04231; Rice, semi-milled or wholly milled, whether or not polished, glazed, parboiled or converted (excluding broken rice) 04231; Rice, semi-milled or wholly milled, whether or not polished, glazed, parboiled or converted (excluding broken rice) Origin 7 Is the signal considered as an increased importation pattern? Explanation if the answer to the question of the previous column is no or other remarks Detected by FS? If yes, the relevant FS signal number is given VN Yes Yes; FS-76 KH Yes Yes; FS-81 TW ZA Yes Yes New trade partner New trade partner Yes; FS-83 SITF ; Broken rice TH Yes SITF ; Broken rice VN Yes SITF ; Maize seed CL Yes SITF ; Maize seed NZ Yes SITF ; Other maize, unmilled (not seed) EG Yes New trade partner New trade partner Yes; FS-89 15

16 APPENDIX II: GRAPHS OBTAINED BY THE SITF METHOD Remarks: (i) red dots: monthly imported quantities (ii) horizontal, red lines: mean value of the monthly imported quantities for the given 12 month period (iii) the period on the horizontal axis is in months (iv) the blue lines should not be taken into account at this exercise Signal SITF-1. Product 01122; Meat of bovine animals, frozen, boneless. Origin: Australia Signal SITF-2. Product: 01222; Meat of swine, frozen. Origin: Japan 16

17 Signal SITF-3. Product: 01222; Meat of swine, frozen. Origin: Russia Signal SITF-4. Product: 01232; Poultry not cut in pieces, frozen. Origin: Israel Signal SITF-5. Product: 01235; Poultry cuts and offal (other than liver), frozen. Origin: Switzerland 17

18 Signal SITF-6. Product: 01240; Meat of horses, asses, mules or hinnies, fresh, chilled or frozen. Origin: Australia Signal SITF-7. Product: 01251; Edible offal of bovine animals, fresh or chilled. Origin: New Zealand Signal SITF-8. Product: 01253; Edible offal of swine, fresh or chilled. Origin: Switzerland 18

19 Signal SITF-9. Product: 01254; Edible offal of swine, frozen. Origin: Russia Signal SITF-10. Product: 01293; Snails (other than sea snails). Origin: The Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia Signal SITF-11. Product: 01611; Hams, shoulders and cuts thereof, of swine, with bone in, salted, dried. Origin: Russia 19

20 Signal SITF-12. Product: 01681; Meat of bovine animals, salted, in brine, dried or smoked. Origin: Switzerland Signal SITF-13. Product: 01740; Meat and offal (other than liver) of poultry of subgroup 001.4, prepared or preserved. Origin: China Signal SITF-14. Product: 0174; Meat and offal (other than liver) of poultry of subgroup 001.4, prepared or preserved, n.e.s. Origin: Croatia 20

21 Signal SITF-15. Product: 01740; Meat and offal (other than liver) of poultry of subgroup 001.4, prepared or preserved, n.e.s. Origin: Japan Signal SITF-16. Product: 01750; Meat and offal (other than liver), of swine, prepared or preserved, n.e.s.. Origin: Switzerland Signal SITF-17. Product: 01760; Meat and offal (other than liver), of bovine animals, prepared or preserved, n.e.s. Origin: Australia 21

22 Signal SITF-18. Product: 01790; Other prepared or preserved meat or meat offal (including preparations of blood of any animal). Origin: USA Signal SITF-19. Product: 02249; Products consisting of natural milk constituents, n.e.s.. Origin: New Zealand Signal SITF-20. Product: 02410; Grated or powdered cheese, of all kinds. Origin: Switzerland 22

23 Signal SITF-21. Product: 02491; Fresh cheese, including whey cheese, and curd. Origin: Switzerland Signal SITF-22. Product: 02510; Birds eggs, in shell, fresh, preserved or cooked. Origin: rway Signal SITF-23. Product: 02530; Egg albumin. Origin: Argentina 23

24 Signal SITF-24. Product: 02530; Egg albumin. Origin: Switzerland Signal SITF-25. Product: 03412; Salmonidae, fresh or chilled (excluding livers and roes). Origin: USA Signal SITF-26. Product: 03418; Other fish, fresh or chilled (excluding livers and roes). Origin: rway 24

25 Signal SITF-27. Product: 03421; Salmonidae, frozen (excluding livers and roes). Origin: Turkey Signal SITF-28. Product: 03424; Herrings, sardines, sardinella, brislings or sprats, frozen (excluding livers and roes). Origin: rway Signal SITF-29. Product: 03425; Cod, frozen (excluding livers and roes). Origin: rway 25

26 Signal SITF-30. Product: 03426; Mackerel (scombrids), frozen (excluding livers and roes). Origin: Faroe Islands Signal SITF-31. Product: 03426; Mackerel (scombrids), frozen (excluding livers and roes). Origin: Republic of Korea Signal SITF-32. Product: 03426; Mackerel (scombrids), frozen (excluding livers and roes). Origin: rway 26

27 Signal SITF-33. Product: 03428; Other fish, frozen (excluding livers and roes). Origin: rway Signal SITF-34. Product: 03440; Fish fillets, frozen. Origin: Antigua and Barbuda Signal SITF-35. Product: 03451; Fish fillets and other fish meat, fresh or chilled. Origin: Island 27

28 Signal SITF-36. Product: 03451; Fish fillets and other fish meat, fresh or chilled. Origin: rway Signal SITF-37. Product: 03455; Fish meat (other than fillets), frozen. Origin: rway Signal SITF-38. Product: 03511; Cod (Gadus morhua, Gadus ogac, Gadus macrocephalus), not in fillets, dried, whether or not salted. Origin: Island 28

29 Signal SITF-39. Product: 03540; Fish liver and roes, dried, smoked, salted or in brine. Origin: China Signal SITF-40. Product: 03620; Crustaceans, other than frozen, including flours, meals and pellets of crustaceans, fit for human consumption. Origin: China Signal SITF-41. Product: 03620; Crustaceans, other than frozen, including flours, meals and pellets of crustaceans, fit for human consumption. Origin: Greenland 29

30 Signal SITF-42. Product: 03631; Oysters, fresh, chilled, frozen, dried, salted or in brine. Origin: USA Signal SITF-43. Product: 03633; Cuttlefish, octopus and squid, fresh or chilled. Origin: Albania Signal SITF-44. Product: 03633; Cuttlefish, octopus and squid, fresh or chilled. Origin: Philippines 30

31 Signal SITF-45. Product: 03635; Other molluscs and aquatic invertebrates, fresh or chilled. Origin: India Signal SITF-46. Product: 03637; Cuttlefish, octopus and squid, frozen, dried, salted or in brine; flours, meals and pellets thereof, fit for human consumption. Origin: Mauritania Signal SITF-47. Product: 03639; Other molluscs and aquatic invertebrates, frozen, dried, salted or in brine, including flours, meals and pellets of aquatic invertebrates other than crustaceans, fit for human consumption. Origin: Turkey 31

32 Signal SITF-48. Product: 03712; Herrings, sardines, sardinella and brislings or sprats, whole or in pieces, but not minced. Origin: Vietnam Signal SITF-49. Product: 03714; Mackerel, prepared or preserved, whole or in pieces, but not minced. Origin: China Signal SITF-50. Product: 03714; Mackerel, prepared or preserved, whole or in pieces, but not minced. Origin: Cape Verde 32

33 Signal SITF-51. Product: 03715; Other fish, prepared or preserved, whole or in pieces, but not minced. Origin: Morocco Signal SITF-52. Product: 03717; Caviar and caviar substitutes prepared from fish eggs. Origin: Korea Signal SITF-53. Product: 03717; Caviar and caviar substitutes prepared from fish eggs. Origin: Russia 33

34 Signal SITF-54. Product: 04220; Rice, husked but not further prepared (cargo rice or brown rice). Origin: Vietnam Signal SITF-55. Product: 04231; Rice, semi-milled or wholly milled, whether or not polished, glazed, parboiled or converted (excluding broken rice). Origin: Cambodia Signal SITF-56. Product: 04231; Rice, semi-milled or wholly milled, whether or not polished, glazed, parboiled or converted (excluding broken rice). Origin: Taiwan 34

35 Signal SITF-57. Product: 04231; Rice, semi-milled or wholly milled whether or not polished, glazed, parboiled or converted (excluding broken rice). Origin: South Africa Signal SITF-58. Product: 04232; Broken rice. Origin: Thailand Signal SITF-59. Product: 04232; Broken rice. Origin: Vietnam 35

36 Signal SITF-60. Product: 04410; Maize seed. Origin: Chile Signal SITF-61. Product: 04410; Maize seed. Origin: New Zealand Signal SITF-62. Product: 04490; Other maize, unmilled (not seed). Origin: Egypt 36

37 APPENDIX III: LIST OF 131 SIGNALS OBTAINED BY THE FS METHOD Signal Number FS-1 FS-2 Product commodity (code and name) 01112; Meat of bovine animals, fresh or chilled, boneless 01122; Meat of bovine animals, frozen, boneless Origin 8 Is the signal considered as an increased importation pattern? Explanation if the answer to the question of the previous column is no or other remarks PY Yes US 2 spikes in 2009, but the same quantity imported in 2008 and 2009 Detected by SITF? If yes, the relevant SITF signal number is given FS ; Meat of swine, frozen RU Yes Yes; SITF-3 FS ; Poultry not cut in pieces, frozen IL Yes Yes; SITF-4 FS ; Edible offal of swine, frozen RU Yes Yes; SITF-9 FS-6 FS-7 FS-8 FS-9 FS-10 FS-11 FS-12 FS-13 FS-14 FS-15 FS ; Extracts and juices of meat, fish or crustaceans, molluscs or other aquatic invertebrates 01710; Extracts and juices of meat, fish or crustaceans, molluscs or other aquatic invertebrates 01710; Extracts and juices of meat, fish or crustaceans, molluscs or other aquatic invertebrates 01730; Liver of any animal, prepared or preserved, n.e.s ; Meat and offal (other than liver) of poultry of subgroup 001.4, prepared or preserved, n.e.s ; Meat and offal (other than liver) of poultry of subgroup 001.4, prepared or preserved, n.e.s ; Meat and offal (other than liver) of poultry of subgroup 001.4, prepared or preserved, n.e.s ; Meat and offal (other than liver), of swine, prepared or preserved, n.e.s 01760; Meat and offal (other than liver), of bovine animals, prepared or preserved, n.e.s ; Milk, in solid form, of a fat content, by weight, not exceeding 1.5% 02249; Products consisting of natural milk constituents, n.e.s. NO Yes US VN NO CN JP NO Yes Yes Almost zero quantity in 2009 Low quantity imported Low quantity imported New trade partner New trade partner Low quantity imported Yes; SITF-13 Yes; SITF-15 CH Yes Yes; SITF-16 US IL Yes A spike in 2009, but the same quantity imported in 2008 and 2009 New trade partner NZ Yes Yes; SITF-19 8 Countries by ISO 3166; 37

38 Signal Number FS-17 Product commodity (code and name) 02300; Butter and other fats and oils derived from milk Origin 8 AU Is the signal considered as an increased importation pattern? Explanation if the answer to the question of the previous column is no or other remarks 2008 imported quantity higher than in 2009 Detected by SITF? If yes, the relevant SITF signal number is given FS ; Butter and other fats and oils derived from milk IL Low quantity imported FS ; Blue-veined cheese CH Low quantity imported FS-20 FS ; Birds eggs, in shell, fresh, preserved or cooked 02521; Birds eggs, not in shell, and egg yolks, dried NO Yes Yes; SITF-22 IL Yes FS ; Egg albumin AR Yes Yes; SITF-23 FS ; Fish, live TW Low quantity imported FS ; Salmonidae, fresh or chilled (excluding livers and roes) MG Low quantity imported FS-25 FS-26 FS-27 FS-28 FS-29 FS-30 FS ; Salmonidae, fresh or chilled (excluding livers and roes) 03414; Tunas, skipjack or stripe-bellied bonito, fresh or chilled (excluding livers and roes) 03414; Tunas, skipjack or stripe-bellied bonito, fresh or chilled (excluding livers and roes) 03415; Herrings, sardines, sardinella, brislings or sprats, fresh or chilled (excluding livers and roes) 03418; Other fish, fresh or chilled (excluding livers and roes) 03421; Salmonidae, frozen (excluding livers and roes) 03421; Salmonidae, frozen (excluding livers and roes) TR Yes GH Yes SR Low quantity imported MA Yes NO Yes Yes; SITF-26 FO Yes TR Yes Yes; SITF-27 FS ; Flat-fish, frozen (excluding livers and roes) NG 2008 imported quantity higher than in

39 Signal Number FS-33 FS-34 FS-35 FS-36 Product commodity (code and name) 03423; Tunas, skipjack or stripe-bellied bonito, frozen (excluding livers and roes) 03423; Tunas, skipjack or stripe-bellied bonito, frozen (excluding livers and roes) 03423; Tunas, skipjack or stripe-bellied bonito, frozen (excluding livers and roes) 03424; Herrings, sardines, sardinella, brislings or sprats, frozen (excluding livers and roes) Origin 8 BR ID Is the signal considered as an increased importation pattern? Yes Explanation if the answer to the question of the previous column is no or other remarks 2007 imported quantity same as in 2009 New trade partner Detected by SITF? If yes, the relevant SITF signal number is given TH Yes MR 2008 imported quantity higher than in 2009 FS ; Mackerel (scombrids), frozen (excluding livers and roes) EC Yes New trade partner FS-38 FS ; Mackerel (scombrids), frozen (excluding livers and roes) 03426; Mackerel (scombrids), frozen (excluding livers and roes) IN Yes KR Yes Yes; SITF-31 FS ; Hake, frozen (excluding livers and roes) HR Low quantity imported FS ; Other fish, frozen (excluding livers and roes) GL Yes FS ; Other fish, frozen (excluding livers and roes) RU 2008 imported quantity same as in 2009 FS ; Fish fillets, frozen CH Yes FS ; Fish fillets and other fish meat, fresh or chilled AU Low quantity imported FS-45 FS-46 FS ; Fish meat (other than fillets), frozen 03455; Fish meat (other than fillets), frozen 03512; Fish fillets, dried, salted or in brine, but not smoked AR Yes FK Yes AL Yes FS ; Fish (excluding fillets), dried, whether or not salted, but not smoked, n.e.s. SN 2008 imported quantity same as in

40 Signal Number FS-49 FS-50 FS-51 FS-52 FS-53 Product commodity (code and name) 03513; Fish (excluding fillets), dried, whether or not salted, but not smoked, n.e.s ; Fish (including fillets), smoked, whether or not cooked before or during the smoking process 03619; Other crustaceans, frozen, including flours, meals and pellets of crustaceans, fit for human consumption 03620; Crustaceans, other than frozen, including flours, meals and pellets of crustaceans, fit for human consumption 03620; Crustaceans, other than frozen, including flours, meals and pellets of crustaceans, fit for human consumption Origin 8 Is the signal considered as an increased importation pattern? Explanation if the answer to the question of the previous column is no or other remarks SR Yes AU AL Low quantity imported Low quantity imported Detected by SITF? If yes, the relevant SITF signal number is given CN Yes Yes; SITF-40 IN Yes FS-54 FS-55 FS-56 FS-57 FS-58 FS-59 FS-60 FS ; Cuttlefish, octopus and squid, fresh or chilled 03635; Other molluscs and aquatic invertebrates, fresh or chilled 03637; Cuttlefish, octopus and squid, frozen, dried, salted or in brine; flours, meals and pellets thereof, fit for human consumption 03637; Cuttlefish, octopus and squid, frozen, dried, salted or in brine; flours, meals and pellets thereof, fit for human consumption 03637; Cuttlefish, octopus and squid, frozen, dried, salted or in brine; flours, meals and pellets thereof, fit for human consumption 03639; Other molluscs and aquatic invertebrates, frozen, dried, salted or in brine, including flours, meals and pellets of aquatic invertebrates other than crustaceans, fit for human consumption 03639; Other molluscs and aquatic invertebrates, frozen, dried, salted or in brine, including flours, meals and pellets of aquatic invertebrates other than crustaceans, fit for human consumption 03639; Other molluscs and aquatic invertebrates, frozen, dried, salted or in brine, including flours, meals and pellets of aquatic invertebrates other than crustaceans, fit for human consumption AL Yes Yes; SITF-43 VN Yes AL Yes GN Yes OM 2008 imported quantity same as in 2009 CN Yes TR Yes Yes; SITF-47 TW Yes 40

41 Signal Number Product commodity (code and name) Origin 8 Is the signal considered as an increased importation pattern? Explanation if the answer to the question of the previous column is no or other remarks Detected by SITF? If yes, the relevant SITF signal number is given FS ; Salmon, prepared or preserved, whole or in pieces, but not minced BY Low quantity imported FS-63 FS-64 FS ; Other fish, prepared or preserved, whole or in pieces, but not minced 03716; Other fish, prepared or preserved, n.e.s ; Other fish, prepared or preserved, n.e.s. HR Yes JP 2007 and 2008 imported quantity higher than in 2009 MU Yes FS ; Other fish, prepared or preserved, n.e.s. SG 2008 imported quantity same as in 2009 FS ; Caviar and caviar substitutes prepared from fish eggs CN 2007 imported quantity same as in 2009 FS ; Caviar and caviar substitutes prepared from fish eggs KR Low quantity imported Yes; SITF-52 FS ; Caviar and caviar substitutes prepared from fish eggs KZ Low quantity imported FS ; Caviar and caviar substitutes prepared from fish eggs RU Yes Yes; SITF-53 FS ; Molluscs and other aquatic invertebrates, prepared or preserved, n.e.s. HR Low quantity imported FS ; Durum wheat, unmilled MX Yes FS ; Durum wheat, unmilled TR Yes FS ; Other wheat (including spelt) and meslin, unmilled MD Yes FS ; Rice, husked but not further prepared (cargo rice or brown rice) AR Yes FS-76 FS ; Rice, husked but not further prepared (cargo rice or brown rice) 04231; Rice, semi-milled or wholly milled, whether or not polished, glazed, parboiled or converted (excluding broken rice) VN Yes Yes; SITF-54 BR Yes 41

42 Signal Number FS-78 FS-79 FS-80 FS-81 FS-82 FS-83 Product commodity (code and name) 04231; Rice, semi-milled or wholly milled, whether or not polished, glazed, parboiled or converted (excluding broken rice) 04231; Rice, semi-milled or wholly milled, whether or not polished, glazed, parboiled or converted (excluding broken rice) 04231; Rice, semi-milled or wholly milled, whether or not polished, glazed, parboiled or converted (excluding broken rice) 04231; Rice, semi-milled or wholly milled, whether or not polished, glazed, parboiled or converted (excluding broken rice) 04231; Rice, semi-milled or wholly milled, whether or not polished, glazed, parboiled or converted (excluding broken rice) 04231; Rice, semi-milled or wholly milled, whether or not polished, glazed, parboiled or converted (excluding broken rice) Origin 8 CN Is the signal considered as an increased importation pattern? Explanation if the answer to the question of the previous column is no or other remarks 2008 imported quantity higher than in 2009 Detected by SITF? If yes, the relevant SITF signal number is given IR Yes JP Yes KH Yes Yes; SITF-55 KR Yes TW Yes New trade partner Yes; SITF-56 FS ; Broken rice LK Yes FS ; Broken rice UY Yes FS ; Maize seed BR FS ; Maize seed PE 2008 imported quantity higher than in 2009 Low quantity imported FS ; Maize seed US Yes FS ; Other maize, unmilled (not seed) EG Yes New trade partner Yes; SITF-62 FS ; Other maize, unmilled (not seed) IN 2008 imported quantity higher than in 2009 FS-91 FS ; Other maize, unmilled (not seed) 04490; Other maize, unmilled (not seed) MD Yes XS Yes 42

43 Signal Number Product commodity (code and name) Origin 8 Is the signal considered as an increased importation pattern? Explanation if the answer to the question of the previous column is no or other remarks Detected by SITF? If yes, the relevant SITF signal number is given FS ; Buckwheat, unmilled UA Yes FS ; Flour of wheat or of meslin CN Yes FS ; Flour of wheat or of meslin IL Yes FS ; Flour of wheat or of meslin IN FS ; Flour of wheat or of meslin KR New trade partner 2007 imported quantity higher than in imported quantity same as in 2009 FS ; Flour of wheat or of meslin XS Yes FS ; Groats, meal and pellets, of wheat IN 2007 imported quantity same as in 2009 FS ; Groats, meal and pellets, of wheat LB Yes FS ; Maize (corn) flour BR FS ; Cereal flours, other than of maize, wheat or meslin HK 2008 imported quantity same as in imported quantity higher than in 2009 FS ; Cereal flours, other than of maize, wheat or meslin IL Low quantity imported FS ; Cereal flours, other than of maize, wheat or meslin NG Low quantity imported FS ; Cereal flours, other than of maize, wheat or meslin PH Low quantity imported FS ; Groats and meal of maize (corn) CH Yes New trade partner FS ; Groats and meal of maize (corn) HR Low quantity imported FS ; Groats and meal of maize (corn) RU Low quantity imported 43