Methodology of industrial projects economic evaluation (M.E.E.P.I.)

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1 Metodology of idustrial proects ecoomic evaluatio (MEEP Coreliu NEAGU, Maria Adrei GURAU, Elisabeta TURCU, Viorel Alexadru TURCU Abstract Te article tries to preset te cotributios o te metodology of idustrial proects ecoomic evaluatio (step-bystep, called (MEEP Te system of idicators used for te ivestmet efficiecy evaluatio is te created model VRQRRT, typical of idustrial proects i Romaia, tat sows most clearly te efficiecy of te proect Has bee made ad te cart of evaluatio, compariso ad selectio of idustrial proects i accordace wit te metodology MEEP Te metodology developed is used for comparig several versios ad possible alteratives for te allocatio of available capital; for orderig of variats of teir efficiecy level; for settig priorities ad allocatig te available fuds o your optimizatio proects; to determie te effective policy of te ivestmet firm; for coosig optimal variat of te multitude of possibilities beig studied; for te formulatio of specific requiremets to te proects tat are preparig Keywords Ecoomic evaluatio, ivestmet efficiecy, MEEP, VRQRRT; NTRODUCTON Ecoomic evaluatio of proects is a essetial operatio essetial for te activity of ivestmet decisios All proect solutios adopted are accompaied by calculatios ad tecical, ecoomic ad fiacial aalysis, for proects implemeted to always be te most effective of te followig alteratives ad capital allocatio [], [2] Ecoomic evaluatio of ivestmet proects refers to ecoomic peomea (icludig fiacial oes ad operates wit ecoomic otios, patters, teciques ad istrumets, realizig te eormous correspodece betwee resources ad requiremets, suc resource cosumptio will be ustified oly by gettig sigificat results [3] Ecoomic evaluatio of ivestmet proects must provide clear, relevat aswers to a large umber of questios, issues ad cocers of ivestors [], [3], [4] Of tese, te most importat are preseted i table C Neagu is wit te Egieerig ad Tecological Systems Maagemet Departmet, Polytecics Uiversity, Bucarest, Romaia (poe: ; eagu_coreliu@yaoocom M A Gurau is ow wit te Egieerig ad Tecological Systems Maagemet Departmet, Polytecics Uiversity, Bucarest, Romaia (poe: ; adreigurau@yaoocom E Turcu is wit te Egieerig ad Tecological Systems Maagemet Departmet, Polytecics Uiversity, Bucarest, Romaia V A Turcu is wit te Egieerig ad Tecological Systems Maagemet Departmet, Polytecics Uiversity, Bucarest, Romaia TABLE QUESTONS FOR THE ECONOMC EVALUATON Ecoomic evaluatio of ivestmet proects ivolves, first, rigorous estimate of te ivestmet efforts ad teir correlatio wit icome ad expediture flows Below is preseted te ecoomic evaluatio metodology of idustrial proects, called te cotiued (MEEP, wit all te steps ad sub steps of tis Te cosidered obectives of MEEP are [3]: TABLE MEEP OBJECTVES MEEP STEPS MEEP - Step of plaig ad selectio of te ivestmet iitial elemets Te purpose of tis step is te idetificatio, evaluatio ad quatificatio of te ivestmet proect fiacial elemets [5] t is a very importat step because values ad te wrog iterpretatio of tese, leads to te disastrous results of te proect MEEP - Settig te size of te proect iitial ivestmet, Te proect iitial ivestmet is represeted by te value (size of te capital required for te realizig of proect Te compoets wic give te iitial ivestmet ca be: te purcase price of all fixed assets, employees wages costs, costs related to te proect fuctioality test, costs wit curret assets Te iitial ivestmet will be played troug te ssue 3, Volume,

2 summatio of all tese costs, but weter te ivestmet will be spet over several years, to be able to determie te value of te iitial ivestmet will ave performed update calculatios d d 2 + k + ( + k + + ( + k +, ( ( 2 + were: d - Te maximum duratio of realizig te proect, years; - Te first trace of ivestmets, correspodig to costructio first year; - Te trace ivestmet correspodig of year ; + - Te last trace of ivestmets, correspodig to costructio last year; Tus, for a proect wit tree cosecutive years of fudig (d3, te amout of ivestmet will become: 2 ( + k + 2 ( + k + 3 (2 For te calculatio of te iitial ivestmet is used a prelimiary discout rate k, stadard, kow for te proect domai ad i te MEEP 2 will be determied a exactly rate k f te differece betwee te prelimiary ad te calculated k is greater ta % will retur to MEEP ad will recalculate te amout of iitial ivestmet MEEP 2 - Settig te discout rate, k f te discout rate is iger, te more values of ecoomic idicators calculated sriks ad terefore will be removed some types of proects fact, te discout rate is subect to te fiacial situatio of te ivestor f te ivestmet value is from ow sources, te discout rate is establised o te basis of te average profitability of te fuds ivested i te period immediately prior to te proect [6] f fiacig is doe from several exteral sources, te discout rate of must be brougt to a weigted average size of differet sources capital costs, addig a risk margi [3], [7]: k (3 k + χ, were: k - terest rate applied by te leder icludig te margi of risk; k- Moetary market iterest rate witout risk of capital borrowed; χ - Margi of risk (te amout of additioal risk premium assumed troug ivestmets i certai idustrial proects types, more or less risky; f te proect is fiaces troug bak loa from a sigle source, te discout rate sall be: k k + (2 4% (4 MEEP 3 Settig te available cas flows, CFD case of ivestmet proects ecoomic evaluatio will take ito cosideratio te cas flows geerated by tese proects (estimated aalyze caracterized by ucertai values of te terms takig ito accout For available cas flow calculatio, i ay year of life proect CFD, it starts from a profit ad loss accout of te ivestmet, wic also must be estimated as precisely (estimates for icomes ad proect future paymets [3], [8]: PN PB ( 6%, (5 were: PN - Net profit after tax; PB - Gross profit from te proect operatio (estimate; 6% - Taxatio of gross profit sare; CFD PN + A Ce (6, were: Ce - Ecoomical growt formed of immobilizatios variatio o year ad et curret assets variatio from et debt; A - Depreciatio for te year for te proect ew assets; ay idustry, we it determies te level of available cas flow, risk is calculated ad it performs due to ucertaities: fiacial risk ad busiess risk t must accetuate te idea tat, if possible, it ca preview te amout of available cas flow oly for te proect aalyzed Usually, owever, it is very ard to delieate te ifluece of a sigle ivestmet proect of te wole portfolio of proects of idustrial eterprises MEEP 4 Settig te life cycle of te proect, For settig te proect life duratio are take ito accout more cocepts, as follows: tecical duratio of proect, te accoutat duratio, te commercial duratio ad use te legal duratio of te proect practice te four duratios will ot ever be equal Tats wy i te calculatios for determiig te efficiecy of idustrial proects, will be used te duratio cosidered represetative for te proects examied [3], [9], [0], [] fact, i te curret ecoomic crisis te estimate preview periods bigger ta 5-7 years, does ot lead to reliable results for ivestors For loger proects may equivalece te future cas flows wit residual values equivalet to te times 5-7 ssue 3, Volume,

3 MEEP 5 Settig of proect residual value, VR Te residual value represets te amout, wic ca be recovered i fixed assets take out of operatio at te ed of teir ormal life cycle ( [3] fact, te residual value ca be determied accordig to te equatio 5: VR CFD+, ( k f were: CFD+ - Cas flow from te ext year followig te expiratio of te referece period (; k - Te discout rate of proect, k > f ; f - Te average aual growt rate estimate for te proect cas flow; Accordig to MEEP 4 te maximum duratio of life for predictios is 7, but if it is cosidered a macie wit a ormal depreciatio period ( 0, te residual value equivalet to cas flows geerated i te years, wic overtakes te period predictio (8, 9, 0, sall be determied as follows: CFD8 CFD9 CFD0 VR0 VR ec VR ( k ( + k ( + k ( + k MEEP 2 Step of ecoomic evaluatio accordig to te model VRQRRT [3] Te idicators tat sow te ecoomic efficiecy of a proect, are cosiderig te ivestmet effort ad ext estimated fiacial effects (tese are quatitative caracteristics, measuremet parameters wit te elp of wic oe is expressig ecoomic efficiecy level Sice tese values vary from oe proect to aoter, tere is ot a sigle model for determiig te ecoomic efficiecy of a ivestmet proect i ay situatio (tere are situatios were te applicatio of several idicators lead to icosistet results idustrial proects, implemeted i Romaia from te beeficiarys ow proect fuds or bak loas, it proposes te followig ecoomic evaluatio model cosists of te followig idicators (VRQRRT, outlied below Were cose tese idicators i te model because tey reflect te best ecoomic efficiecy of idustrial proects ad quatify te mai worry of ivestors i te curret ecoomic crisis Te VRQRRT model is composed of: - Net updated value, VAN(k% ; - Static ad dyamic ecoomic performace, RE, RE ; - Ratio betwee icome/ expese total updated, Q; - teral rate of retur, RR; - teral rate of retur modified, RRM; (7 - Duratio of capital recovery static ad dyamic, TR static, TR dyamic ; MEEP 2 VAN is te first idicator tat ca appreciate te attractiveess of certai types of proects i order to make te ivestmet decisio, accept/reect; terefore it sould ot be excluded from ay system of idicators VAN( k% ( CF fuctioare ( PN CFD ( + k Ce + A Ce ( + k ( + k MEEP 22 To determie static ad dyamic ecoomic efficiecy, RE, RE, of te proect departs from forecastig te total profits, P t, it will geerate te proect ad te amout of te total iitial ivestmet, Te static ecoomic efficiecy is express depedig o te life duratio of te proect [8]: Pt RE P P were: P - Total profit; t P (medium ( medium ( medium TR - Average value of profit; TR (9 (0 For te calculatio of dyamic ecoomic efficiecy, RE it will use te updated values of profit ad te iitial ivestmet: VA( Pt VA( P ( + k RE ( ( + k MEEP 23 Te ratio betwee te icomes ad te total expeditures updated, Q is used as a rakig criterio of ivestmet proects, because every ivestor or te beeficiary of te proect wats to maximize reveue per cost uit [0] ssue 3, Volume,

4 V ( + k Q (2 ( + CE ( + k To be able to aalyze te space of admissible solutios of tis idicator i te case of several types of proects, it is proposed to be doe grapics metod Assumig tat tere are 8 variats of te same proect, for eac variat we will ave a report Q i ( Q Q8 t is assumed tat te beeficiary of te proect (te ivestor as a miimum value of reveue ( VA ( V (mi ad a maximum value of expeses tat e will accept ( VA ( K (max, tese two restrictios will make a limited space i wic tey ca searc for optimal solutios, as sow i fig : Fig Q i optimal solutios of a proect figure, te bisector Q costat relates VA ( V VA ( K Te optimal solutios of te proect are represeted by te ased area, so te oly variats tat ca be implemeted are Q 7 ad Q 8, accordig to te ivestors restrictios Coclusios: te value of te discout rate k is smaller, k 0, te value of te idicator Q will be iger (k0 Qmaxim; if te value of te discout rate rises, te Q idicator value will lower ad tus may be less ta oe MEEP 24 Te RR level sall be determied by successive attempts, because it is ot a relatiosip of direct calculatio Tus, it will be calculated VAN at differet discout rates k ad almost close rate will reac k, for wic VAN0 Because it uses liear iterpolatio, it is recommeded tat k k max k mi, to be ot iger ta 5-7% VAN( kmi RR kmi + ( kmax kmi, (3 VAN( k VAN( k were: kmi - Te lowest discout rate for tat: VAN ( k mi > 0 ; k - Te igest discout rate for tat: VAN ( k max < 0 ; max Selectig a ivestmet proect after maximum RR criterio requires tat all proects examied to ave te same ecoomic life; oterwise te RR will acieve a icorrect rakig of proects teral rate of retur eables te compariso of ivestmet alteratives ad variats, cosiderig te staggerig i time ivestmet, cas flow ad profits RR does ot ivolve establisig beforead te discout rate as te calculatio ivolves te VAN MEEP 25 Te iteral rate of retur modified RRM represets a fuctio f (k of te discout rate k, for wic te future capitalized values of te iitial ivestmet ad te cas flows becomes equal at te ed of te proect life cycle [3, 4, 8]: [ f ( k ] VA( CFD ( + k + (4 mi CFD ( + k [ + ( k ] f (5 VA( ( CFD + k ( RRM f k 00 (6 ( VA ( CFD + k + VR ( RRM f k 00 (7 VA( MEEP 26 Bot i teoretical cosideratios, but also i practice te duratio of capital recovery is calculated i static ad dyamic approac to te ivestmet process ad it is express i years fact, te duratio of ivestmet recovery is te ratio betwee te value of te iitial ivestmet ad a aual volume of beefits cosidered (wic may be profit, costat cas flow or medium etc [2], [3], [2] max ssue 3, Volume,

5 TR static ( PN + A Ce ( PN + A Ce, (8 TR diamic (9 CFD ( + k TABLE CONCLUSONS OF VRQRRT MODEL STEP : Te iitial ivestmet amout ad operatig expeses are calculated icreasig wit 5% ad 0%, ad te aual reveues value ad decreasig wit 5% + 5%, (20 CE V V CE + 0 % CE, (2 5 % V, (22 were: - itial ivestmet value correspodig to MEEP 3; CE MEEP 3; 3; V - Operatig expeses value correspodig to - Aual reveues value correspodig to MEEP STEP 2: t is calculated te gross ad et profit of te proect; MEEP 3 Step of proect sesitivity aalysis For a more accurate estimate of te ecoomic efficiecy of a idustrial proect, it is ecessary to assess te effect of cagig te iitial ivestmet elemet values i te iput model o te efficiecy idicator (VAN, RR, Q, RRM etc Tis is accomplised i a sesitivity aalysis [3], [5] By MEEP 3 it follows: Te sesitivity aalysis of te proect idicators to some variatios of parameters; Determiatio te critical profitability of te proect i terms of parameters variatios; Apparitio probabilities of favorable or adverse evets; Determiatio of te exteral proect risks (systemic risks, market risks, etc; detificatio of critical variables tat sigificatly ifluece te results of te proect; Effects of selected items variatios (costs ad beefits o VAN, RR, Q; fact, is tested te stability of VRQRRT model ad te stability of fiacial results at certai variatios of reveues ad expeditures witi te idustrial proect wit cosideratio of several possible variatios: icrease expese wit te ecessary equipmet ad costructio proect, te icrease i operatig expeses, mius te icome variatio, etc (tese are periodic variatios Tus, i idustrial proects implemeted i Romaia it is recommeded to test te idicators stability at te costs ad icomes variatios (5-0% of te etire estimate period [3]: PB V CE (23 STEP 3: Te six idicators are calculated accordig to MEEP 2 ad will result te model V R Q R R T wic must meet te miimum coditios required of idicators ad V R Q R R T values ot to be muc smaller ta VRQRRT te evet tat oe or more of te idicators values of VRQRRT model appears below te miimum acceptable tresold (example, Q, wic meas tat te proect will ot produce ay beefit, it is very clear tat te proect as a ig sesitivity to variatios i iput parameters At tis poit, maagers must stop te evaluatio at MEEP 3, ad to take te massive re-evaluatio of te proect (startig agai wit MEEP MEEP 3 evaluatio it is ot recommed to cosider some variats more favorable ta te average estimated, because if te model VRQRRT already sow tat te proect will produce beefits, it is clear tat improvig coditios will lead to more good values of te idicators MEEP 4 - Te performace audit of te ivestmet proect Accordig to te NTOSA stadards (teratioal Orgaizatio of Supreme Audit stitutios te performace audit is defied as a ecoomy, efficiecy ad effectiveess audit wit wic te audited compay use resources i order to ssue 3, Volume, 203 0

6 accomplis te obectives ad resposibilities of te proect Performace audit is syoymous wit te expressio value for moey Ulike te fiacial audit, performace audit is muc broader ad ope to iterpretatios, expadig o te large periods of time Tere is ot oly a fiacial exercise wit certai documets, audit reports beig very extesive cotaiig commets ad solutios to problems ecoutered by maagers [4], [5] Te performace audit covers te followig aspects [3], [6], [7]: - Ecoomical audit o te activities of te admiistrative maagemet i accordace wit te priciples, practices ad policies of a appropriate maagemet - Efficiecy audit o te use of uma resources, fiacial or ay oter kid, quatifyig te risks tat ca occur ad results (its obectives may cover te time you will realize te proect, product, delays ad causes geeratig estimates of te costs/results - Effectiveess of audit results o te obectives pursued ad te estimated impact of teir activities i relatio to te desired impact Proect audit represets a clear examiatio ad accurately i detail of budget maagemet, te degree of acievemet of obectives ad te sustaiability of te proect i order to determie te level of performace, idetifyig te urealized causes of te proposed results ad offers solutios i order to icrease te level of performace Te audit may be required by te fuder or by te beeficiary of te proect, is bidig realized at proects fiaced from te budget i te desig stage, durig or after te coclusio of te proect Te results of performace audit proects set up i a Audit Report t sould be oted tat i Romaia, as bee demostrated over te past 25 years, tat ot oly te maagemet is te mai cause of failure started ad ufiised proects, but also tose wo coceive, or edorse, autorizes ad cotrols te works Tus it is essetial tat te audit proects to be doe i eac stage of te proect: after te pase of coceptio, before obtaiig permits for costructio ad after te receptio of fial works MEEP CHART For eac of te four stages of ecoomic evaluatio of te idustrial proects, was preseted te steps tat must follow for teir applicatio, te data ad iformatio required, te tools ad metods for maagemet as well as te types of decisios to be take by te compay maagemet [3] Metodological proposal may be i a systematic ad itegrated metod of maagemet of idustrial ivestmets, to aswer te criteria of ecoomic ad fiacial efficiecy of te etire ivestmet activities of a etity Tus, te applicatio ca be coected to te four stages, as well as te accumulatio of importat experieces for maagers ad evaluators of proects, wic ca improve te metodology for assessig, reducig te implemetatio of ivestmet proects ieffective risk, or wit a ig risk Fig 2 Sceme of MEEP Accordig to VRQRRT model it cosiders tat te dyamic approac is a tecique better ta te static approac as regards cosideratio of tese idicators/criteria Curretly, te most used metods are tose wic require a aalysis based o time factor ifluece o te profitability fact it is proposed te model of ecoomic evaluatio VRQRRT acieved from six efficiecy ecoomic idicators Accordig to te MEEP stages sow above will be made, a assessmet sceme, compariso ad selectio of variats/idustrial proects, represeted i fig 2 [3] ssue 3, Volume,

7 Aalyzig ad diagosig te ecoomic eviromet are very importat compoets of te strategic maagemet process tat esures te orgaizatios success i te competitive market (usually placed i feasibility studies t is recogized tat all orgaizatios try to idetify teir stregts ad weakesses, opportuities ad treats of te competitive eviromet (SWOT diagram Ofte, owever, lose sigt of te fact tat a combiatio betwee tese factors ca lead to obtaiig ad coosig certai strategies V CONCLUSONS Te procedure for selectio of ivestmet proects is a problem features eac orgaizatio, ad te most importat tig is te evaluatio impact of eterprise-ecoomic eviromet Altoug tere ca ot be quatified, tis evaluatio is used to determie te orgaizatios developmet strategy ad cotais tree importat momets: - Determiatio of te orgaizatio obectives ad idetifyig ivestmet opportuities; - Diagostic aalysis of te orgaizatio wic seeks to determie stregts ad weakesses; - Aalysis of te ecoomic eviromet i wic te orgaizatio operates Te mai stages i te evaluatio ad selectio of idustrial ivestmet proects are as follows: a Geeratio of all possible ivestmet variats ad selectig te iitial elemets of ivestmet (MEEP ; b Ecoomic evaluatio of variats/ idustrial proects (MEEP 2; c Sesitivity Aalysis of variats/ proects (MEEP 3; d Performace Audit (MEEP 4; e mplemetatio ad moitorig te proect; Geeratio of all ivestmet variats is a decetralized problem tat allows beig developed ivestmet proposals at all levels of eterprise Te lower levels will propose replacemet ivestmet, moderizatio or expasio, ad te upper levels will ave te resposibility of some proposals for strategic developmet proects Tus, i tis stage, eac proect must be accompaied by a commercial, tecical ad fiacial study, to ustify te appropriateess ad sustaiability of te ivestmet Also maagers ad iitiators of proects are ivolved i te decisio-makig process from te stadpoit of ow te fuds are spet Kowledge of te factors tat ifluece te profitability elps maagers i caelig resources of te compays most profitable ivestmet may eterprises as give up at te idea tat te director gives a verdict about te ecoomic viability of ivestmet proects proposed, but tis does ot mea tat tey are ot used i evaluatio teciques ad tat does ot take ito accout aspects of te marketig, productio ad uma resources of all proects Te result of tis stage is to develop a ivestmet pla ad fudig Tis documet presets te sytesis of selected ivestmets ad teir fiacig Te selectio of ivestmet proects is carried out based o fiacial criteria, after establisig te iitial elemets of te ivestmet ad comparig tem, but takig ito accout direct ivestmet policy priorities t refers to coosig cost-effective ivestmets depedig o te resources tat ca be allocated to tem vestmet decisio is a decisio of te geeral policy of te eterprise t requires i eterprises a orgaizatio system tat allows a good circulatio of te iformatio ad esures te coerece of decisios Te ivestmet decisio ires te eterprise over log periods ad requires te establismet of fudig policies i order to obtai te ecessary fuds t is cosidered te allocatio of available capital or collected Tus, tis article provides importat cotributios to ecoomic evaluatio of proects by: - Developmet of step-by-step metodology for evaluatig solid ecoomic idustrial proects MEEP; - Researc ad groupig of ecoomic idicators i a system of idicators VRQRRT, typical to idustrial proects, wic sows most clearly te effectiveess of te proect; presetatio of te metodology of calculatio of te idicators, te compariso ad selectio of proects accordig to tese vestmet decisio is a decisio of te geeral policy of te eterprise t requires a eterprise system, wic allows a good flow of iformatio ad esure te cosistecy of decisios Te ivestmet decisio ires te eterprise for log periods ad requires completio of fudig policies i order to obtai te ecessary fuds ACKNOWLEDGMENT Te work as bee co-fuded by te Sectoral Operatioal Program for Huma Resources Developmet (SOP HRD, fiaced from te Europea Social Fud ad by te Romaia Govermet uder te cotract umber POSDRU/075/S/76909 REFERENCES [] ES Almamoud, Likig proect ealt to proect performace idicators: Multiple case studies of costructio proects i Saudi Arabia, teratioal Joural of Proect Maagemet, vol 30, issue 3, pp , 202 [2] C Doici, Aalysis of ivestmet proects i egieerig, Editura Bre, Bucarest, 2009 [3] MA Gurãu, Some cotributios i ecoomic evaluatio of idustrial proects field, Tecical report of doctorate, approved October 202, Uiversity Polytecic of Bucarest [4] A Hamilto, Art ad practice of maagig proects, Tomas Telford Publisig Ltd, Lodo, 200 [5] JF Cag, P Si, Usig ivestmet satisfactio capability idex based particle swarm optimizatio to costruct a stock portfolio, Joural of formatio Sciece, vol 8, issue 4, pp , 20 [6] M Ciseros-Molia, Matematical metods for valuatio ad risk assessmet of ivestmet proects ad real optios, PD Tesis, Uiversity of Oxford, 2006 [7] C Borgiai, M Paolucci, U Mazzati, G Di Luzio, Ecoomic evaluatio of fluegas remediatio by RDF ad solar eergy, Recet Advaces i Fluid Mecaics ad Heat& Mass Trasfer, pp , 20, SBN ssue 3, Volume,

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