Global market review of vodka forecasts to edition

Transcription

1 Global market review of vodka forecasts to edition

2 Page i Global market review of vodka forecasts to edition By IWSR Drinks Record editor Alexander Smith Contributors: Val Smith, Alastair Smith, Laura Tovey, Helen Windle, Tim Simmons, Jose Hermoso, Humphrey Sergeantson, Piotr Poznanski and Agata Andrzejczak August 2009 Published by Aroq Limited Seneca House Buntsford Park Road Bromsgrove Worcestershire B60 3DX United Kingdom Tel: +44 (0) Fax: +44 (0) Web: Registered in England no:

3 Page ii Single-user licence edition This report is provided for individual use only. If you would like to share this report with your colleagues, please order additional copies or sign up for a multi-user licence by contacting: Liz Hague Research manager, just-drinks.com Tel: +44 (0) liz.hague@just-drinks.com Copyright statement 2009 All content copyright Aroq Limited and The IWSR. All rights reserved. This publication, or any part of it, may not be copied, reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or be transmitted in any form by any means electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise without the prior written permission of Aroq Limited. This report is the product of extensive research work. It is protected by copyright under the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act The authors of Aroq Limited s research reports are drawn from a wide range of professional and academic disciplines. The facts within this report are believed to be correct at the time of publication but cannot be guaranteed. All information within this study has been reasonably verified to the author s and publisher s ability, but neither accept responsibility for loss arising from decisions based on this report. Incredible ROI for your budget single and multi-user licences We understand the pressure your research budget is under and price our reports realistically. You won t find our reports with four, or even five-figure price tags, but you will find that they make some of the competition look expensive. Each title is available to you on a single-user basis, supplied on the strict understanding that each title is not to be copied or shared. Alternatively, titles can be shared within departments or entire corporations via a costeffective multi-user licence. Multi-user licences can also save you money by avoiding unnecessary order duplication. To further add value, all multi-user

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5 Page iv Table of contents Table of contents Single-user licence edition... ii Copyright statement... ii Incredible ROI for your budget single and multi-user licences... ii just-drinks.com membership... iii Table of contents... iv List of tables... vi Notes about the data... ix Terminology... ix Chapter 1 Scope of the market... 1 Premium evolution... 4 New frugality... 5 Downtrading: permanent or temporary... 7 Toward tried-and-tested brands... 9 Venue shift Cocktail culture Forging differences Flavour explosion Packaging battleground Eastern European groups expand Expanding premium s footprint Chapter 2 Market reports Americas United States Canada Mexico Brazil Europe Eastern Europe Russia Ukraine Belarus Poland Baltic markets Czech Republic Western Europe France The UK Ireland Germany... 47

6 Page v Table of contents Spain Scandinavia Asia China India Australia New Zealand South Africa Travel retail More premium offerings Other markets Chapter 3 Leading companies Diageo Pernod Ricard Integration moves International potential Central European Distribution Corporation (CEDC) Bacardi-Martini Campari Appendix: History... 76

7 Page vi List of tables List of tables Table 1: World vodka sales by total volume consumption world total and by major market, ( 000s nine-litre cases)... 2 Table 2: Top ten vodka brands in United States by total sales volume, ( 000s nine-litre cases) Table 3: Top five vodka brand owners in United States by total sales volume, ( 000s nine-litre cases) Table 4: Top ten vodka brands in Canada by total sales volume, ( 000s nine-litre cases) Table 5: Top five vodka brand owners in Canada by total sales volume, ( 000s nine-litre cases) Table 6: Top ten vodka brands in Brazil by total sales volume, ( 000s nine-litre cases) Table 7: Top five vodka brand owners in Brazil by total sales volume, ( 000s nine-litre cases) Table 8: Top ten vodka brands in Russia by total sales volume, ( 000s nine-litre cases) Table 9: Top five vodka brand owners in Russia by total sales volume, ( 000s nine-litre cases) Table 10: Top ten vodka brands in Ukraine by total sales volume, ( 000s nine-litre cases) Table 11: Top five vodka brand owners in Ukraine by total sales volume, ( 000s ninelitre cases) Table 12: Top 12 vodka brands in Belarus by total sales volume, ( 000s nine-litre cases) Table 13: Top five vodka brand owners in Belarus by total sales volume, ( 000s ninelitre cases) Table 14: Top ten vodka brands in Poland by total sales volume, ( 000s nine-litre cases) Table 15: Top five vodka brand owners in Poland by total sales volume, ( 000s ninelitre cases)... 37

8 Page vii List of tables Table 16: Top ten vodka brands in Lithuania by total sales volume, ( 000s nine-litre cases) Table 17: Top five vodka brand owners in Lithuania by total sales volume, ( 000s ninelitre cases) Table 18: Top ten vodka brands in Estonia by total sales volume, ( 000s nine-litre cases) Table 19: Top five vodka brand owners in Estonia by total sales volume, ( 000s ninelitre cases) Table 20: Top ten vodka brands in Czech Republic by total sales volume, ( 000s ninelitre cases) Table 21: Top five vodka brand owners in Czech Republic by total sales volume, ( 000s nine-litre cases) Table 22: Top ten vodka brands in France by total sales volume, ( 000s nine-litre cases) Table 23: Top five vodka brand owners in France by total sales volume, ( 000s ninelitre cases) Table 24: Top ten vodka brands in United Kingdom by total sales volume, ( 000s ninelitre cases) Table 25: Top five vodka brand owners in United Kingdom by total sales volume, ( 000s nine-litre cases) Table 26: Top ten vodka brands in Germany by total sales volume, ( 000s nine-litre cases) Table 27: Top five vodka brand owners in Germany by total sales volume, ( 000s ninelitre cases) Table 28: Top ten vodka brands in Finland by total sales volume, ( 000s nine-litre cases) Table 29: Top five vodka brand owners in Finland by total sales volume, ( 000s ninelitre cases) Table 30: Top ten vodka brands in India by total sales volume, ( 000s nine-litre cases) Table 31: Top five vodka brand owners in India by total sales volume, ( 000s nine-litre cases) Table 32: Top ten vodka brands in travel retail by total sales volume, ( 000s nine-litre cases)... 58

9 Page viii List of tables Table 33: Top five vodka brand owners in travel retail by total sales volume, ( 000s nine-litre cases) Table 34: Top ten vodka brands in Bulgaria by total sales volume, ( 000s nine-litre cases) Table 35: Top five vodka brand owners in Bulgaria by total sales volume, ( 000s ninelitre cases) Table 36: Top ten vodka brands in Kazakhstan by total sales volume, ( 000s nine-litre cases) Table 37: Top five vodka brand owners in Kazakhstan by total sales volume, ( 000s nine-litre cases) Table 38: Top ten vodka brands in Romania by total sales volume, ( 000s nine-litre cases) Table 39: Top five vodka brand owners in Romania by total sales volume, ( 000s ninelitre cases) Table 40: Top ten vodka brands in Uzbekistan by total sales volume, ( 000s nine-litre cases) Table 41: Top five vodka brand owners in Uzbekistan by total sales volume, ( 000s nine-litre cases) Table 42: Global vodka market by quality segment, ( 000s nine-litre cases) Table 43: Top 30 vodka markets proportion of flavoured vodka, (%)... 78

10 Page ix Notes about the data Notes about the data Where - or a blank table cell appears in The IWSR data tables, this indicates no sales recorded by The IWSR. When 0.0 precedes - in previous years, this indicates that the brand had not yet been launched in the year(s). There may be some cases where low sales are registered as 0.0 due to rounding. Low sales may also be recorded as Min to signify minimum sales. Unless otherwise specified, all data quoted in this report refers to 2007 market data. When cases are quoted, these refer to nine-litre cases unless otherwise specified Data in tables does not include figures for travel retail. Data may not some due to rounding. Terminology CAGR: compound annual growth rate A&P: advertising and promotions

11 Page 1 Chapter 1 Scope of the market Chapter 1 Scope of the market Vodka is the most dynamic category in the global spirits industry today. Not onl y is it the largest global categor y with total sa les of xxxxxm cases, but its growth trajectory has been nothing but phenomenal. Over the course of the past 20 years the categor y has added a staggering xxxxxm cases (a CAGR of xxx%). Much of this growth has come in the vodka belt countries of Russia and Poland, where there has been a move from unregistered to registered brands. In Russia alone legal sales increased b y xxm cases over that 20 - year period. That has been driven by tighter government controls and rising affluence. The US has been the other m ajor source of growth, rising b y xxxxm cases over the 20-year period. Sales in the US look set to continue growing due to the favourable demographic profile there. Other major contributors over that period include the UK (+xxxxm cases), Germ any (+xxxm case s) and Canada (+xxxm cases). Vodka s performance has also been impressive due the breadth of markets enjoying growth. Vodka has enjoyed considerable growth across a broad spectrum of m ark ets. Between 2004 and 2008, vodk a posted gains in xx of its top xx largest global (dom estic) m ark ets. In m any of these it was double -digit CAGR growth. Perhaps the greatest cause for optimism is the recent performance of the socalled BRIC markets. While Russia is obviously an established and vast vodka market, the recent growth in India and Brazil has been impressive. In India, vodk a sales have risen b y xxxxm cases between 2004 and 2008, while sales in Brazil rose by more than a million cases over the same period. Sales in China are small today, but the potential is considered to be enormous given the size of the indigenous white spirits market. Twenty years from now it would not be surprising if these were the four largest global markets.

12 Page 19 Chapter 2 Market reports Chapter 2 Market reports Americas United States Table 2: Top ten vodka brands in United States by total sales volume, ( 000s nine-litre cases) Brand vol2003 vol2004 vol2005 vol2006 vol2007 vol2008 Smirnoff Vodka xxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxx Absolut xxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxx Grey Goose xxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxx Skyy Vodka xxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxx Svedka xxxxx xxxxx xxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxx Stolichnaya xxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxx Ketel One xxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxx McCormick Vodka xxxxxxx xxxxxx xxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxx Popov xxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxx Barton Vodka xxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxx Source: The IWSR The world s m ost im portant vodka m ark et grew xxx% in 2008 to reach xxxm nine-litre cases. This growth is below the m ark et s five-year CAGR of xxx% and one of the slowest growth rates for several years. Imported vodkas continue to outpace locall y produced vodk as rising xxx% versus xxx% although in both segments there are strong-performing brands. Within the category, flavoured vodkas continue to be a key driver of growth, with volum es rising by xxx% versus xxx% for clear vodk as. However, it is worth noting that 2008 was one of the slowest in terms of product innovation and new product launches and that overall the percentage growth of flavoured vodkas was well below the longer-term growth rates. Over the past five years, the sector has grown at a CAGR of xxx% and over the past decade the sector has grown at a CAGR of xxxx%. One notable exception to this is the strength of Skyy Infusions, which have performed well in 2008 and are reputedly doing

13 Page 66 Chapter 3 Leading companies Chapter 3 Leading companies Diageo Diageo is the second-largest vodka company in the world (it is only edged out by CEDC), with total sales of xxxx nine -litre cases. The com pany s share of the global m ark et has risen from xxx% in 2004 to xxx%. Group vodk a sales have risen b y xxx% between 2004 and The powerhouse Smirnoff brand accounted for most of that growth, rising by xxxxm cases over that five -year period. That growth was achieved across an impressive spread of markets. Nine out of its top ten markets gained at least xxxxxxx cases, with Spain (num ber ten) being the sole exception. The US was the biggest source of growth, rising by an incredible xxxxm cases over that period to reach xxxm cases in The brand has perform ed strongly in 2009, capturing much of the consumer trade-down from superpremium and premium. The brand also added half a million cases in the UK (to xxxm cases) and Brazil (to xxxm cases), its second - and fourth-largest markets. If Diageo had a weakness it s that it was missing out on much of the growth of the super-premium and premium segments, particularly in the US. The company has remedied that through two major deals. In June 2008, Diageo and The Nolet Group, the family owned distiller of Ketel One vodka, form ed a xx/xx global distribution compan y to distribute super - prem ium Ketel One vodk a. Diageo paid US$xxxm for its xx% equit y stake in the new company. Ketel One is sold primarily in North America. In another potentially significant deal, Diageo, in October 2007, formed a marketing partnership with rap artist Sean P Diddy Combs, and his business Sean Combs Enterprises, for its Ciroc vodka brand. The multi-year contract involves a xx/xx profit split. In the first full year, Ciroc registered xxxxx% growth to reach xxxxxxx cases. With these two deals Diageo now has a strong representation in the high-end vodka market.

14 Page 76 Appendix: History Appendix: History Vodka has come a long way since its humble origins as a drink mostly consumed by peasants in central and eastern Europe, as well as Scandinavia. Vodka has become trendy and fashionable and, in certain markets, notably the US, a number of brands have been able to command premium and even super-premium prices. The word vodka is derived from the Russian word voda meaning water, or, as the Poles would say, woda. The first documented production of vodka in Russia was at the end of the ninth century, but the first known distillery at, Khylnovsk, was built about two hundred years later. The earliest Polish vodkas appeared in the 11th century. By the 14th century it was the national drink of Russia, and by the 16th century it had achieved similar status in Poland and Finland. These early vodkas were very rough and contained many impurities. Producers often flavoured their spirits with spice, herbs, grass and fruit to mask these impurities. It wasn t until the 18th century, when a method of purifying alcohol using charcoal filtration was developed, did the quality improve markedly. The other real breakthrough came in the 15th century when pot distillation began in Russia. This permitted vodka to be produced in larger quantities. Large-scale production also permitted vodka to be exported for the first time; the first exports to Sweden were recorded at the beginning of the 16th century. Mass production also made it a lucrative business and the Russian and Polish nobility were granted production rights in the 17th century. By the 19th century the num ber of licensed distilleries num bered xxxxx with m any m ore illicit distillers adding to the total. In 1894, the Russian Czar sought to control the trade by creating a state monopoly, a system that continued until the end of Communism. The Polish distilleries were nationalised by the Communists after World War Two. It was the Russian Revolution in 1917 that served as a catalyst for the international development of vodka. Russian émigrés took their knowledge of