Supply & Demand Outlook for Washed and Semi-washed Arabica Coffee April 15, 2005
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1 Supply & Demand Outlook for Washed and Semi-washed Arabica Coffee April 15, 2005 Judith Ganes Chase
2 Before Determining What the Supply is, One has to Define Specialty Coffee When prices for coffee were depressed, it was clear to see which coffees were trading at premium prices. Some defined Gourmet coffee as anything that traded to a premium to the C. Now that prices of Arabica coffee have rebounded, does a coffee trading at a small premium to the C contract still constitute a gourmet or Specialty coffee or does this just reflect more limited availability of that growth; be it a finer quality or not? How much over the C is Specialty? Will this standard hold the test of time?
3 Example: 1997 Differentials Fluctuated Wildly 60.0 Cents per Pound Santos Colombian El Salvador Oct-95 Feb-96 Jun-96 Oct-96 Feb-97 Jun-97 Oct-97 Feb-98 Jun-98 Oct-98 Feb-99 Jun-99 Source: Reuters
4 Costa Rican Average Differential Rose as Prices Fell US $/46 KG Bag Source: ICAFE
5 Panama s Price Approach to Determining Supply of Specialty Coffee--% over C Average Annual Price Per Pound Source: Hacienda La La Esmeralda
6 Internet Auction Results Auctions gaining in popularity and success Gives farmers opportunity to showcase their unique coffees Provides broad exposure Stimulates interest in that growth and perhaps other growths of that origin, benefiting even those not featured at auction Top prices rising buyers willing to pay more at upper end of the supply chain Auction High Bid Low Bid 2000 Brazil COE $3.04 $ Guatemala COE $8.45 $ Brazil COE $12.85 $ Best of Panama $3.06 $ CR Cup of Gold $7.35 $ CR Cup of Gold $3.93 $ El Salvador Q $$1.04 $ Best of Panama $21.00 $ CR Q Auction 1 $1.50 $ Colombia COE $19.10 $4.75
7 Specialty Coffee Defined by Netnographics? Netnography methodology = market research on the internet Tectonic shifts in the coffee market place Raised consciousness of coffee connoisseurship Specialty coffee drinkers are passionate, devoted, enthusiastic, innovative, and knowledgeable Most importantly consumers are willing to experimenthow do you measure usage of Specialty coffee with all these innovative new products?
8 Is Washed and Semi-Washed Arabica Output Keeping up with Demand? THREE-tiered market structure has become increasingly more pronounced. Global stocks of Arabica coffee are falling. Interest in gourmet/specialty coffee continues to grow.
9 Arabica Coffee Crisis is Over 290 Cents per Pound Aug-73 Aug-76 Aug-79 Aug-82 Aug-85 Aug-88 Aug-91 Aug-94 Aug-97 Aug-00 Aug-03 Source: NYBOT
10 Arabica Premium over Robusta Swells 300 Cents per Pound 250 Arabicas Robustas Jul-89 Jul-91 Jul-93 Jul-95 Jul-97 Jul-99 Jul-01 Jul-03 Monthly through end-march 2005
11 Cash Differentials Should Firm Again as Structure Tightens Cents per Pound Brazil 2/3, mtgb, ss Guatemala shb, ep Honduras hg, ep Colombian Excelso ep India Plantation A Apr-01 Aug-01 Dec-01 Apr-02 Aug-02 Dec-02 Apr-03 Aug-03 Dec-03 Apr-04 Aug-04 Dec-04 Source: Trade Sources
12 Growers Income on the Rise 200 Cents per Pound 150 Colombia El Salvador Guatemala Brazil Sep-88 Sep-90 Sep-92 Sep-94 Sep-96 Sep-98 Sep-00 Sep-02 Sep-04 Source: ICO
13 Producer Coffee Stocks at Minimal Levels Millions of 60-Kilo Bags Other Brazil Source: USDA.
14 Source: ICO ICO Only Minimal Origin Stocks of Washed Arabica Coffee Millions of 60-Kilo Bags Other Milds Colombian Milds / / / / / / / / / / / /05
15 Producer Coffee Consumption Climbing million 60-kg bags / / / / / / /05 Source: USDA
16 Supply Deficit Expected Millions of Bags output use / / / / /05
17 Importer s Stocks at Record Highs Millions of 60-Kilo Bags End December
18 U.S Coffee Stocks Seeing Reduction Already Millions of 60-kg Bags Jan-88 Jul-90 Jan-93 Jul-95 Jan-98 Jul-00 Jan-03 Source: Green Coffee Association
19 Certified & Non-Certified Coffee Stocks Could Fall Further Millions of 60-kg Bags 4 Certified Non-Certified Jan-01 Jun-01 Nov-01 Apr-02 Sep-02 Feb-03 Jul-03 Dec-03 May-04 Oct-04 Mar-0 Source: NYBOT
20 Breakdown of US Certified Washed Arabica Stocks Millions of 60-kg Bags Mexico Peru El Salvador Honduras Guatemala Colombia Nicaragua Venezuela Costa Rica Tanzania Ecuador Burundi Kenya India Panama Rwanda Uganda Dom Rep Source: NYBOT Does not include coffee in Antwerp and Hamburg/Bremen
21 Brazil Arabica Down; Robusta Up in Millions of 60-Kilo Bags Robusta Arabica /93 93/94 94/95 95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 Source: USDA, SAFRAS MAX crop estimate.
22 Price Recovery Aiding Output Outside Brazil Millions of 60-Kilo Bags Robusta Arabica /93 93/94 94/95 95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 Source: USDA
23 Vietnamese Output Impacted by Drought? Million 60-kg Bags /92 93/94 95/96 97/98 99/00 01/02 03/04 '05/06
24 Colombia Maintains Relatively Stable Output Millions of 60-Kilo Bags /93 93/94 94/95 95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 '05/06 Source: USDA
25 North/Central American Output Rebounding Slightly Millions of 60-Kilo Bags /93 94/95 96/97 98/99 00/01 02/03 04/05 Source: USDA
26 African Coffee Production Also Improving Slightly 1, kg bags /61 64/65 68/69 72/73 76/77 80/81 84/85 88/89 92/93 96/97 00/01 04/05 Source: USDA
27 African Arabica Output Increasing Relative to Robustas 1, kg bags 18 Robusta Arabica /61 63/64 66/67 69/70 72/73 75/76 78/79 81/82 84/85 87/88 90/91 93/94 96/97 99/00 02/03 Source: USDA
28 Washed Arabica Production to See Slow Recovery Millions of 60-Kilo Bags / / / / / /08 Source: USDA, J Ganes Consulting Forecasts
29 Washed Arabica Supplies to Increase Gradually Availability of Washed Arabica coffee slipped with falling world prices Production is showing signs of recovering already now that prices are improving. Production will take time to recover due to decline in tree population Minimal origin stocks exist to meet demand in the event of an unexpected supply shortfall
30 Estimated Specialty Coffee Output Compared to Other Arabica Production in the Region millions of 60-kg bags N & C America S America Africa Asia Specialty Other Arabica Source: SCAA, USDA, Derived data for Specialty based on % of output
31 % of Specialty Coffee Output Compared to Other Arabica Production in the Region Percentage of Total Arabica Production Other Arabica Specialty N & C America S America Africa Asia Source: SCAA, USDA, Derived data for Specialty based on % of output
32 Source: USDA, SCAA Central American Coffee Output by Type Millions of 60-kg bags Costa Rica Guatemala El Salvador Nicaragua* Honduras Specialty Other Arabica
33 Growth of Guatemalan Specialty Coffee 1, kg bags 4,500 4, ,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, SHB HB & SemiHB Prime/Extra Prime Others Total , , , , , , , , Source: Anacafe
34 Guatemala % Share of Exports by Type % Share of Annual Exports SHB HB & SemiHB Prime/Extra Prime Others Source: Anacafe
35 El Salvador Sees Growing Sales of Specialty Coffee Million 60 kg bags / / / Commercial Specialty Source: Salvadoran Coffee Council
36 El Salvador s Gourmet Coffee Exports on the Rise , kg bags / / / / / / / / / / /04 Source: Salvadoran Coffee Council
37 Source: Salvadoran Coffee Council; Fine sells at 15 cents or higher differential. Other includes Organic, Source: Salvadoran Coffee Council; Fine sells at 15 cents or higher differential. Other includes Organic, Certified Rainforest/Eco-Friendly, Fair Trade, Fair Trade/Organic El Salvador Gourmet & Fine Coffee Sales Increase Million 60 kg bags / /04 Gourmet Fine Other
38 Peru s Growth of Gourmet/Premium Coffees 1,000 quintal's Sustainable Gourmet/Premium Fair Trade Organic Source: Camara Peruana de Cafe
39 Indian Exports of Specialty & Value Added Coffee 60-kg bags 2,000 Monsooned Malabar AA Mysore Nuggets EB 1,600 1, Source: Coffeelab Private Limited
40 Key Variables Influencing Mild Coffee Output Producers continued drive to add value to production Consumers preference for perceived better quality coffee Higher Market Prices Inability to compete against lower cost producers Geographic considerations; soil conditions, climate
41 A Look at Shifts in Demand Roasters became extremely price sensitive Some roasters switched blends due to price The use of Specialty/Gourmet products continues to expand not only regionally but internationally This has resulted in the market becoming polarized
42 Roasters Have Become Dependant on Brazilians and Robustas Replacing Other Milds Supplies 12.0 Millions of 60-Kilo Bags Colombian Milds Other Milds Brazilians Robustas 95/96 96/97 00/01 04/ Source: ICO Note: October-Feb cumulative exports
43 Percentage Share of Total Exports by Type % Share of Oct-Feb Exports Colombian Milds Other Milds Brazilians Robustas Source: ICO
44 US Usage of Other Milds Slips % Share Colombian Milds Other Milds Natural Arabicas Robustas Source: ICO, F.O. Licht
45 Source: ICAFE Costa Rica Shipping More to US to Meet Growing Demand for Better Coffee % Share Germany USA Japan Italy Others
46 Source: ICO ICO US Importing Fewer Mexicans; More CR & Guatemalan Coffees 4 Millions of 60-kg Bags Costa Rica Guatemala Mexico
47 Java Joints in the USA Shops per 10,000 Folks 1. Anchorage, Ak Seattle, WA Vicinity San Francisco, CA Bellingham, WA Portland, OR Bremerton, WA Boulder, CO Olympia, WA San Luis Obispo, CA Vicinity Santa Rosa, CA 1.5 Source: NPD Group
48 One a Corner US Cities with Most Coffee Shops 1. Los Angeles-Long Beach Seattle, WA Vicinity Chicago, IL New York, NY Portland, OR Minneapolis-St Paul, MN Washington, DC Vicinity San Francisco, CA San Diego, CA Vicinity Orange County, CA 326 Source: NPD Group
49 Germany Increasing Reliance on Brazil Million 60-kg Bags 5 Colombian Milds Other Milds Natural Arabicas Robustas Source: ICO, F.O. Licht
50 EU (Less Germany) Imports Stagnant; But Greater Imports of Brazilian Naturals Million 60-kg Bags 9.5 Colombian Milds Other Milds Natural Arabicas Robustas Source: ICO ICO
51 Source: ICO ICO Recurring Theme: Japan Imports More Brazilians 2.2 Millions of 60-kg Bags Colombian Milds Other Milds Natural Arabicas Robustas
52 Source: SCAJ Based on on 2003 imports that that were purchased over $1.00 pound Japan Imports of Specialty Coffee by Origin Thousands of 60-kg Bags Ethiopia Tanzania Jamaica Cuba Colombia 1, Guatemala Yemen Kenya Brazil 1, Indonesia Total 6,
53 Source: ICO ICO Russian Imports Rising 250 Thousands of 60-kg Bags Other Milds Robustas Other
54 Source: ICO ICO Singapore Coffee Imports Decline? Thousands of 60-kg Bags
55 Source: ICO ICO Chinese Coffee Imports Rising; Mostly Robusta Thousands of 60-kg Bags
56 Starbuck Sees Continued Growth Opportunities Millions of bags Roasted data converted to green bean equivalent 6.0 FY95 FY04 are based on historical roasted coffee volumes FY05 is estimated roasted coffee volume. FY08, FY10 are 3 and 5 year estimates based on 20% growth Source: Starbucks Note: 1996 is when Starbucks went international.
57 Most Likely Production Scenario for Mild Coffees Fundamental Variables Impacting this outlook Production of non-washed Arabica and Robusta coffee Substitution, availability of Brazilian naturals Two-tier pricing becomes even more pronounced Second level Milds replaced by Naturals
58 Summary: Large Expansion of Washed Arabica Supplies Not Expected Any Time Soon Availability of Washed Arabica coffee slipped with falling world prices Production appears to recovering Minimal origin stocks exist to meet demand in the event of an unexpected supply shortfall There remains no margin for error
59 Key Influences on Consumption of Better Quality Washed Mild Coffees US consumption patterns catching on elsewhere Has the market reached saturation? Differentiated coffees going mainstream Ease of use increasingly more important Can growth be sustained? Number of new coffee houses globally on the rise; US still growing strong; Available in more nontraditional outlets McCafes, gas stations, banks
60 Roasters Need to Be Creative to Fill Expected Gap Roasters will need to remain creative in finding unique blends, flavorings to satisfy growing demand for specialty, gourmet, and premium coffees. Roasters will need to continue to work hand in hand with producers to assure sufficient supplies of quality coffee in the future. Roasters will need to be visionaries and look outside the box to satisfy demand and to keep demand growing find alternate locations to keep coffee in front of consumers Demand rising by late comers to the party jumping on the bandwagon
61
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