16/02/2017 Nelly Piralkova Saga Commodities a.s.
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1 * 16/02/2017 Nelly Piralkova Saga Commodities a.s.
2 SAGA COMMODITIES TRADING Saga Commodities je sprostredkovateľom na špecializovaných trhoch pre obchodovanie s emisiami CO2. Naša činnosť je zameraná geograficky na 10 krajín v strednej a východnej Európe, kde máme dlhodobých klientov Máme priamy prístup na najlikvidnejsom trhu, kde sa emisné povolenky obchodujú londýnska buza ICE a veľkú sieť OTC partnerov. Poradenské služby na spracovanie stratégie pre obchodovanie s emisiami CO2 počas Fázy III Pomoc pre efektívne splnenie povinnosti v rámci ETS Naše výhody: Konkurenčné ceny bez dodatočných poplatkov pomocou cien priamo z burzy a/alebo OTC obchodov s tvorcami trhu Individuálny prístup k potrebám klienta a flexibilita pri určení zmluvných podmienok 2
3 Historický pohyb cien Cena EUA v roku ,00 8,00 7,00 Konečný termín odovzdania skutočných emisií Odstávka jadrových elektrární vo Francúszku Prestávka aukcií počas sviatkov 6,00 5,00 4,00 Hromadné špekulatívne predaje Negatívna makroekonomická situácia Výsledok z Brexitu 3, Uzatváracia cena Návrat aukčných objemov Zverejnenie aukčného kalendára pre 2017
4 Základné faktory na trhu CO2 Počasie Energetický komplex - Elektrina - Plyn - Uhlia - Ropa Politické udalosti ohľadne ETS Výsledky aukcií Technické ukazovatele - Fibonacci - Pohyblivý priemer *
5 Energetický komplex Kontrakt Uzatváracia cena Zmena EUA Dec /tonne (8.29) -21% German power front year 31.36/MWh (26.61) 17.90% Front month Brent crude oil $56.82/bbl (37.28) 52.40% Zvýšenie cien všetkých komodít okrem uhlíka Nižšia cena uhlia v období Návrat plynu v roku 2016 Menej uhlia, slabší dopyt po kvótach Summer-ahead NBP gas pence/therm (30.83) 52.30% Year ahead coal contract $64.35/tonne (42.00) 53.20% * Uzatváracie ceny základných energetických komodít za DEC-16 v porovnaní s DEC-15
6 /MWh Zmena paliva - Fuel switching Figure 2.3: Incentives for fuel switcing 20 German Spark- and Dark Spread Front month prices Source: Thomson Reuters Point Carbon Spark Dark *Pokles výroby elektriny z uhlia o 94 TWh (12%) *Zvýšenie výroby z plynu o 101 TWh (20%) Pokles skutočných emisií energetického sektoru o 4,5% alebo 48 mil.t. v roku 2016 negatívny dopad na ceny EUA
7 Cena nemeckej elektriny a cena uhlíka 40 German Power Settlement Price EUA Settlement Price Settlement Price Settlement price
8 Jan 04, 2016 Jan 18, 2016 Feb 01, 2016 Feb 15, 2016 Feb 29, 2016 Mar 14, 2016 Mar 29, 2016 Apr 12, 2016 Apr 26, 2016 May 10, 2016 May 24, 2016 Jun 07, 2016 Jun 21, 2016 Jul 05, 2016 Jul 19, 2016 Aug 02, 2016 Aug 16, 2016 Aug 30, 2016 Sep 13, 2016 Sep 27, 2016 Oct 11, 2016 Oct 25, 2016 Nov 08, 2016 Nov 22, 2016 Dec 06, 2016 Dec 20, Cena ropy a cena uhlíka Brent Crude Oil Settlement Price 9,00 8,00 7,00 6,00 5,00 4,00 3,00 EUA Price in 2016 Settlement price Closing price
9 AUKCIE Dátum Cena Platforma Objem Pomer Cena na sekundár nom trhu Rozdiel ,92 ICE ,37 4,97-0, ,93 EEX ,56 4,90 +0, ,22 EEX ,17 5,18 +0, ,25 EEX ,80 5,23 +0,02 Najväčší rozdiel od začiatku roka ,05 EUR Priemerný pomer 2,87 Uzatváracia cena aukcie < cena na spotovom trhu => pokles Uzatváracia cena aukcie > cena na spotovom trhu => rast Vyšší pomer > veľký záujem > vyššia cena Nižší pomer > slabší záujem > nižšia cena Zverejnenie aukčného kalendáru okolo 30% viac kvot na primárnom trhu pokles pod 4 EUR Prestávka aukcií na primárnom trhu v období zvýšenie na 6,60 EUR
10 Politické spávy Dátum Udalosť Dopad na trhu Pohyb cien Parížska dohoda žiadny 8,10-8, Brexit 12% pokles /denne/ Parízska dohoda nadobúda platnosť * pokles Voľby v USA 5% pokles /denne/ Hlasovanie v ENVI 10% zvýšenie /týždeň/ Z 5,65 na 4,96 EUR Z 6,40 na 6,20 EUR 5,82 EUR intraday low 4,46 na 4,93 EUR
11 Technické ukazovatele *Fibonacci retracement level *15, 20, 50, 100, 200-denný pohyblivý priemer
12 KONTAKTY SALES VEDENIE Saga commodities AD 41, George Washington Str Sofia Bulgaria info@sagacommodities.com Saga commodities Poland Michal Mazurkiewicz Warsaw Financial Centre Ul. Emilii Plater Warsaw, Polska info@sagacommodities.com Nevena PETROVA manager npetrova@sagacommodities.com CENTRÁLNA EURÓPA A BALKÁN Irina KRASTEVA Poland/ Bulgaria ikrasteva@sagacommodities.com VÝCHODNÁ EURÓPA Olga CARADJOVA Romania ocaradjova@sagacommodities.com Stéphane COLIN Executive director scolin@sagacommodities.com Nelly PIRALKOVA Bulgaria/ Czech Republic/Slovakia npiralkova@sagacommodities.com Afroditi Karamoutsou Greece and Cyprus akaramoutsou@sagacommodities.com
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