PRICE WATCH December 2015 Prices January 29, 2016

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1 PRICE WATCH December 2015 Prices January 29, 2016 KEY MESSAGES In West Africa, market availability was good in December with carryover stocks, early supplies from above-average 2015/16 regional harvests and international rice and wheat imports. Markets remained disrupted throughout the Lake Chad Basin and in parts of Northern Mali (Page 3). In, maize prices declined seasonally in surplus-producing areas of Uganda. Below average harvests are anticipated in Ethiopia and Sudan, putting pressure on markets. The South Sudanese Pound was allowed to float in December, leading to a substantial depreciation of the local currency. Markets remain disrupted by insecurity in South Sudan, Somalia, and Yemen (Page 4). In Southern Africa, maize supplies are below-average and began to significantly tighten across the region with the progression of the lean season. Significant maize deficits are seen in Malawi and Zimbabwe. Maize prices generally increased and are well above-average price levels across the region (Page 5). In Central America, maize prices followed seasonal trends and supplies from the recent Primera season (main maize harvest) began to dwindle. Red bean supplies increased after an early start of the bean harvest (Postrera) in November and prices stabilized in El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua. Locally-produced bean and maize availability remained below-average in Haiti, while imported commodity prices remained stable (Page 6). In Central Asia, wheat availability remained good region-wide. Prices are below their respective 2014 levels in surplus-producing areas (Page 7). International staple food markets remain well supplied. Maize, wheat, rice, and soybean prices were stable in December and below their respective 2014 levels (Figures 2 and 3). Crude oil prices continued to decrease and remained well below-average (Page 2). Figure 1. FEWS NET regional price indices and FAO Food Price Index, January 2010 December 2015 Sources: FAO and FEWS NET. (FEWS NET) monitors trends in staple food prices in countries at risk of food insecurity. The Price Watch provides an update on market and price trends in selected reference markets. Specific trends for key reference markets and commodities are available in the Price Watch Annexes 1 and 2. FEWS NET gratefully acknowledges partner organizations, ministries of agriculture, national market information systems, the Regional Agricultural Intelligence Network, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the World Food Programme (WFP), and others for their assistance in providing price data. FEWS NET fewsnetmt@fews.net FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The content of this report does not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government

2 PRICE WATCH January 2016 INTERNATIONAL MARKETS situation International rice prices were stable in December and below 2014 levels (InterRice and IGC) (Figure 2). Global stocks at the end of 2015 are generally similar to 2014 and average levels. Growing conditions are unfavorable in parts of Southeast Asia, including Thailand, due to El Niño (InterRice). International maize prices were stable with favorable conditions in US and Canada as the season ended, and in Brazil and Argentina as the season began. Global prices remained below 2014 levels reflecting record level global supplies (Figure 3) (AMIS and FAO). International wheat prices were stable as pressure from abundant global supplies and low export demand offset concerns over dry conditions in the Black Sea region and U.S. Global prices were still well below (by over 20 percent) their respective 2014 levels (AMIS and FAO). International soybean prices remained stable and well below 2014 levels. Global supplies are at an all- time record high with favorable conditions as harvests end in the northern hemisphere (AMIS). International crude oil prices decreased considerably in December, reaching the lowest level now since 2004, and were, on average, significantly below 2014 levels (U.S. Energy Information Administration and World Bank). Outlook Figure 2. Food commodity prices in selected international markets, January 2010 December 2015 Sources: FAO and FEWS NET. Figure 3. Global Market Indicators, 2015/16 compared to average Source: Authors' calculations based on World Bank 2015 and USDA Global rice production projections for 2015/16 are slightly below 2014/15 record levels due to the El Niño climate phenomenon and reduced production forecast in the U.S., India, and Thailand (IGC). World demand is projected to outgrow production and global stocks may decline for the first time since 2005 (IGC and InterRice). Global maize production is projected to be slightly below to last year s record crop (USDA FAS and IGC). Although global maize demand for 2015/16 is projected to be near 2014 levels, large inventories in Argentina, Brazil, India, and the U.S. indicate that world ending stocks will remain high (AMIS). Global wheat production projections for 2015/16 are expected to surpass the 2014/15 record level based on larger crops in Canada and the E.U., leading to a 13-year high stock level ending in 2016 (USDA FAS and AMIS). Ukraine s exports are expected to be the second highest ever. Prices are expected to remain below-average (USDA FAS). Global soybean 2015/16 production forecasts are slightly above the 2014/15 record levels. Global demand may grow over 2015/16 based on signs of expanding demand in Asia and South America (AMIS). International crude oil prices are expected to stabilize and remain at the current low levels, well below respective 2015 levels, on average for 2016 (U.S. Energy Information Administration and World Bank). However, fuel prices may increase in some importing countries due to the depreciation of the local currency vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar and local fuel price policies. Staple food price trends across the countries monitored by FEWS NET will vary considerably in the coming months in response to local and regional market conditions; international market trends will play a more limited role in most countries (Figure 1). Fuel price trends in FEWS NET countries will depend on both international market conditions, the evolution of local exchange rates in relation to the U.S. Dollar, and the design and implementation of local fuel import and price policies. Famine Early Warning Systems Network 2

3 PRICE WATCH January 2016 Situation WEST AFRICA Supplies on markets continued to improve in December as harvests were ongoing or recently completed across the region. Demand remains relatively low in production zones and average in urban centers. Aggregate regional cereal production is expected to be above average in 2015/16; regional maize and rice production reached record high levels (Figure 4). Imported rice also contributes to regional staple food availability. Cross-border trade remains dynamic in all the commercial basins in the region. The exceptions to this general trend are in the greater Lake Chad area, where the effects of Boko Haram have resulted in below-average production in 2015/16 and significant market disruptions. There have likewise recently been a resurgence of attacks in Northern Mali, although the market impacts have been limited to localized areas. In Ghana, the joint effects of below-average production (maize) and the depreciation of the local currency in Ghana have led to reduced regional exports. As a result, Burkina Faso is playing an important role in supplying southern and western Niger. Prices generally followed their seasonal trends in December, decreasing for millet, sorghum, tubers, and cash crops and stable to decreasing for imported rice. The prices for maize, on the other hand, declined later than usual in central Niger (Gaya and Niamey) due to late harvests and below-average imports from supplying countries (Benin and Ghana) (Figure 5). Insecurity affected some regional trade routes, causing some atypical monthly prices increases for sorghum in N Djamena, Chad, which normally imports from neighboring Nigeria. Moreover, in Niger, millet prices went up in various localities compared to the previous month due to increased demand by cattle herders for stocks replenishment in light of the transhumance. Harvests in Ebola-affected Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea are estimated to be average, with production surpluses recorded in several areas. Market activities continue to improve progressively thanks to some partial lifting of population movement restrictions, market closures, and trade restrictions. Outlook Figure 4. West Africa Regional cereal production (000s MT) Source: Authors calculations based on CILSS 2015 data. Figure 5. Maize prices in Ghana, Niger, Burkina Faso, and Benin () Source: Authors calculations based on ONASA, SIMA Niger, SONAGESS, and WFP data. Market supplies will continue to improve as harvests progress throughout the region in December. Institutional demand is expected to be average. Prices are expected to follow their regular seasonal trends across much of the region in the upcoming months, even as some producers focus on selling off cash crops rather than cereals. Imports of rice and wheat from international markets are expected to proceed without any major disruptions. Trade in the greater Lake Chad area will likely remain disrupted and prices and market supplies volatile in the coming months. Famine Early Warning Systems Network 3

4 PRICE WATCH January 2016 Situation EAST AFRICA Markets are generally well supplied in Uganda and Tanzania. Maize prices followed their respective seasonal trends in Uganda in December, by decreasing in surplus areas. Prices varied seasonally in the northern bimodal southern surplus-producing highland areas of Tanzania. Exportable surpluses of maize and dry beans continued supplying deficit areas of neighboring countries through both formal and informal exports. In Kenya, staple food prices declined further between November and December with the progression of the October-to-February long rains harvests in the mainproducing North Rift. Stocks of regionally-imported commodities in the main consumption centers reinforced market supplies and price trends. The economy in South Sudan has been heavily affected by the compounding effects of domestic civil strife and reduced state revenues attributed to the global decline in oil prices (a main source of national revenues). The official exchange rate was allowed to float ain mid-december 2015, narrowing the gap between the official and parallel exchange rates, while putting upward pressure on the cost of imported commodities. In areas directly affected by conflict, staple food markets remain thin and prices volatile. Staple food prices increased sharply in October through December in Greater Equatoria due to belowaverage local harvests coupled with outbursts of unrest that disrupted key marketing corridors (Figure 6). The availability of carryover stocks from the well above-average 2014/15 rainfed season in Sudan helped to offset some of the effects of below average production during the current 2015/16 rainfed sorghum season. Sorghum prices were atypically stable during the post-harvest period in Al Qadarif, a surplus-producing area (Figure 7). In Ethiopia, the effects of consecutive above-average Meher harvests on market supplies have offset some of the effects of the recent below-average Belg season. Although staple food prices declined in many areas following the June-to- August Belg, but not as quickly as they normally do (Figure 6). Prices of small ruminants in the northern agropastoral regions are atypically low due to relatively poor animal body conditions. Staple food availability and market activities remain disrupted in conflict-affected areas of southern Somalia. The crisis in Yemen continues to affect imports and security along key marketing corridors, resulting in volatile staple food prices. Outlook Figure 6. Grain prices in Juba, South Sudan (SSP/kg) and the UN Operational Exchange rate (USD/SSP) Source: WFP VAM, South Sudan; UN. Figure 7. Sorghum prices in surplus areas of () Source: FAMERS, Sudan; WFP, Ethiopia, FSNAU, Somalia. Staple food prices are expected to continue following their respective seasonal trends in Uganda and increase earlier than usual in Tanzania, but remain with range of their respective five-year average levels. Staple food prices in South Sudan are expected to remain volatile through the post-harvest period due to the effects of high levels of uncertainty and high transport costs on grain marketing. Recent FEWS NET reporting has indicated that the strong ongoing El Niño is raising the risk of significant flooding in parts of the region and below-average rainfall in others. Either outcome may affect food availability and access in countries like Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, and Somalia. In Sudan, staple food prices are expected to increase earlier than usual over the 2015/16 marketing year, but remain within range of 2014/15 levels due to the abundance of carryover stocks and international wheat imports. FEWS NET will continue to monitor staple food availability and prices in Yemen. Famine Early Warning Systems Network 4

5 PRICE WATCH January 2016 Situation SOUTHERN AFRICA In Southern Africa, maize availability continued to decline in December with the progression of the lean season. Supplies are significantly tighter than usual, especially in Malawi, as a result of the maize shortage the region is facing this year (Figure 8). Malawi s maize supplies tightened considerably in December. The continued depreciation of the Malawian Kwacha has limited Malawi s ability to import maize and alleviate its maize shortage. Malawi s Agricultural Development and Marketing Corporation (ADMARC), which typically supplies subsidized maize through the end of the lean season in March, began to have erratic supplies across the country in December, which is a notable market anomaly. Although Zimbabwe has been able to reduce its deficit by formally importing large volumes of maize from Zambia due to the strength of the USD, maize supplies remain very thin in many parts of the country. Figure 8. Southern Africa maize balance estimates ( 000s MT) /15 MY Average 2015/16 MY Sources: FEWS NET calculations with data from SADC, WRSI, and government ministries. Figure 9. White maize prices in Southern Africa () Zambia s formal maize exports continued declining in December as volumes of exportable maize surpluses lessened. South Africa increased white maize exports to the region, mostly to Botswana and Namibia. Maize prices remained stable or increased and are Sources: Malawi Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation, and Water Development significantly above respective 2014 and five-year average (MITM), Zambia Central Statistics Office, and SAFEX. levels across the region (Figure 9). Maize prices in Zambia and South Africa continued to increase at atypically high levels, reflecting rapidly declining supplies resulting from high export levels, as well as traders response to the poor outlook for the upcoming 2016 harvest. Maize prices increased in Mozambique, with significant increases in the southern region. Prices were stable or increasing in Malawi, with food assistance programs and remaining ADMARC supplies helping balance the supply shortage. In both Malawi and Mozambique, prices of other commodities, including cassava, cowpeas, and rice, abnormally and significantly increased in many areas due to below-average availability and high demand as maize dwindled. Although Zimbabwe s national average maize price remained the highest in the region (in USD terms), prices generally remained atypically stable due to the strength of the USD and the high volume of maize imports from Zambia. Outlook For the remainder of the 2015/16 marketing year, maize supplies are expected to be significantly below-average, especially in Malawi. Regional exports from Zambia and South Africa are expected to decline as their supplies diminish. The 2016 harvest is forecast to be delayed and below-average as a result of effects of the El Niño climate phenomenon. A delayed start of the season will exacerbate maize shortages ahead of the harvest across the region, with significant shortages in Malawi as ADMARC supplies have already begun to run out. With below-average 2016 harvests, many countries may face shortages over the 2016/17 marketing year that are greater than the current shortages, given the low carry-over stocks expected at the end of the 2015/16 marketing year. This includes Zambia and South Africa, which will limit their capacity to export to deficit countries in the region over 2016/17 marketing year. Maize prices will continue to increase until the start of the 2016 harvest and remain above respective five-year average levels across the region. Price increases are expected to be especially high in Malawi given the large local deficits and ongoing currency depreciation. Prices are not expected to decline as much as they typically do during the post-harvest period. Famine Early Warning Systems Network 5

6 PRICE WATCH January 2016 Situation CENTRAL AMERICA AND CARIBBEAN In Central America, maize supplies from the Primera harvest (mainly maize), which ended in September and was below-average, began to dwindle, while bean supplies increased from the ongoing Postrera harvest (mainly beans). Availability and prices of imported rice and wheat flour remained stable in Haiti, while locally-produced black bean and maize supplies were below-average. The main bean season, the Postrera harvest, is underway and is expected to yield average production. The harvest began a month earlier than usual, causing red bean prices to decline a month early in November and then atypically stabilize in December in Nicaragua, El Salvador, and Honduras. In addition to freshly harvested black beans in the Eastern and Northern regions, Guatemala continued to import from Mexico, keeping bean supplies abundant and prices stable. With adequate supplies across the region, bean prices remain below 2014 prices and below or similar to five-year average levels. White maize prices followed seasonal trends in December, remaining stable in Guatemala and El Salvador and beginning to increase in Honduras and Nicaragua as supplies from the Primera harvest (August September 2015) began to dwindle. As a result of the below-average Primera harvest, maize prices generally remained above 2014 (especially in Nicaragua) and average levels in El Salvador, Honduras and Nicaragua. However, in Guatemala, imports from Mexico continue to keep maize supplies abundant and prices below or similar to 2014 and average levels (Figure 10). In Haiti, staple food availability was adequate. Prices of local maize flour continued to increase in structurally-deficit areas following the poor spring maize harvests, which was estimated at 60 percent of normal production. Black bean prices declined in many areas in December due to increased availability on markets of pigeon peas, a substitute, following recent harvests. Prices nevertheless remained well above respective 2014 and five-year average levels (by 49 to 125 percent; Figure 11). Internationally imported rice and wheat prices remain stable due to stable international markets, despite the recent depreciation of the Gourde. Maize flour prices followed imported rice and wheat trends. Outlook Figure 10. White maize prices in Central America () Figure 11. Black bean prices in Haiti () Sources of prices in Central America and Caribbean: Coordination nationale de la sécurité alimentaire (CNSA) and FEWS NET, MAL, Dirección General de Economía Agropecuaria (DGECA), Sistema de Información de Mercados Productos Agrícolas de Honduras (SIMPAH), Secretaria de Economia de Mexico, and Ministerio de Agricultura, Ganaderia y Alimentacion de Guatemala (MAGA). In Central America, based on favorable prospects for the Postrera harvest (the main bean harvest) in El Salvador, Honduras, and Guatemala, red and black bean prices are expected to continue to seasonally decrease through April. Although the impact of El Nino in Nicaragua remains uncertain, it could limit the Apante harvest causing atypical bean price increases in Nicaragua and a reduced source of supplies for El Salvador and Honduras. Red bean price trends will depend on those effects in the coming months, but prices are expected to be generally similar to average levels but below atypically high 2014 levels. Prices of white maize are expected to seasonally increase and remain above 2014 and average levels in Honduras, Nicaragua, and El Salvador, but remain similar to 2014 and average levels in Guatemala. In Haiti, harvests are expected to be up to 30 percent below-average. Prices of locally-produced black bean prices will likely remain stable throughout the pigeon pea harvest period and then increase steadily thereafter. Prices of imported rice and wheat flour will limit the extent to which local maize flour grain and prices increase. FEWS NET will monitor closely the extent to which the recent depreciation of the Haitian Gourde vis-à-vis the USD affects rice and wheat import volumes and prices. Famine Early Warning Systems Network 6

7 PRICE WATCH January 2016 Situation CENTRAL ASIA Regional availability and price trends varied considerably across Central Asia with the progression of the 2015/16 marketing year and in December (Figure 12 and Table 1). However, as detailed in the Central Asia Regional Wheat Supply and Market Outlook, regional deficits are expected to be filled through intra-regional trade. Wheat grain export prices in Kazakhstan, the region s largest exporter, remained stable between October and December 2015 (Figure 12). This comes after the dramatic decline September, when the Kazakh tenge (KZT) depreciated by more than 20 percent in a single month against U.S. dollar (Figure 13). Prices are over 25 percent below their respective 2014 and five-year average levels. Wheat flour prices in major markets of Tajikistan were stable between November and December 2015 at recordhigh levels. Supplies from recent harvests have improved availability at local markets, but have not been sufficient to offset the effects of the sharp depreciation of the Somoni (TJS) (Figure 13). In Pakistan, another regional wheat flour exporter, wheat grain and flour prices remained stable between November and December in most markets. Prices are nearly stable in major markets compared to same time a year earlier and the five-year average reflecting average wheat production coupled with higher than average carry-over stocks. In Afghanistan, wheat grain and flour prices were stable between November and December. Similarly, prices were stable compared to its respective 2014 levels following average domestic wheat production and steady imports from Pakistan and Kazakhstan. The persistent depreciation of the Afghani (AFN) over the past year has put upward pressure on the cost of importing food from regional markets. Outlook Figure 12. Regional staple food Prices in Central Asia () Source: WFP, VAM; APK Inform Agency, Kazakhstan. Figure 13. Regional exchange rates ( ) Source: Authors estimates based on Oanda.com data. Table 1. Regional wheat availability and price trends Country Status Local availability 2015 Prices Kazakhstan Exporter Average Below-average Pakistan Exporter Average Near-average Tajikistan Importer Average Record high Afghanistan Importer Average Above-average Source: FEWS NET estimates. Regional availability and price trends are expected to continue varying across Central Asia over the 2015/16 marketing year. The wheat harvest completed in Kazakhstan and 14 million metric tons (MMT) of wheat grain is expected that is eight percent higher than last year s production. With average wheat production this year the stock levels also increased slightly supporting normal wheat grain and flour exports to the Central Asian countries (USDA/FAS). Price trends in Tajikistan will depend on the extent to which low regional export prices are offset by the depreciation of the TJS. Average wheat production in 2015 (25.5 MMT) and above-average carryover stocks will contribute to stable grain prices in Pakistan and stable exports to neighboring Afghanistan (USDA/FAS). In Afghanistan, prices may increase seasonally during the upcoming lean season (February to April). However, ample regional supplies at relatively low and stable prices are expected to contributed to similar trends in Afghanistan. FEWS NET will continue to monitor the AFN and any implications for reduced purchasing power for imported food and fuel. Famine Early Warning Systems Network 7

8 PRICE WATCH ANNEX 1 December 2015 Prices January 29, 2016 West Africa Bobo Dioulasso Pouytenga Burkina Faso XOF Burkina Faso XOF $0.23 $0.26 Millet (Pearl) Millet (Pearl) XOF XOF $0.32 $0.30 XOF XOF $0.26 $0.22 Djibo Solenzo Burkina Faso XOF Burkina Faso XOF $0.30 $0.15 Millet (Pearl) Millet (Pearl) XOF XOF $0.30 $0.20 XOF XOF $0.27 $0.16 Koudougou Conakry Milled rice Burkina Faso XOF Guinea GNF $0.25 $0.75 Millet (Pearl) Rice (5% Broken) XOF GNF 400 $0.31 $0.52 Bamako Millet (Pearl) XOF Mali XOF $0.28 $0.33 Ouagadougou Gasoline Rice (Gambiaca) Burkina Faso XOF XOF $1.13 $0.62 Gao Millet (Pearl) XOF Mali XOF $0.24 $0.33 Millet (Pearl) Kayes Millet (Pearl) XOF Mali XOF $0.32 $0.42 Koulikoro Millet (Pearl) XOF Mali XOF $1.49 $0.32 Mopti Millet (Pearl) XOF Mali XOF $0.31 $0.33 Whole milk powder Segou Millet (Pearl) XOF Mali XOF $9.05 $0.28 West Africa (FEWS NET) monitors trends in staple food prices in countries vulnerable to food insecurity. The Price Watch Annex 1 provides prices and price changes for key markets and staple foods monitored across FEWS NET countries and regions. The prices are final monthly average prices for December Commodities included in the Annex are the staples most often consumed by the poor in the indicated market. Additional commodities provided are important commodities consumed in the same areas or fuel prices that affect food prices. Final monthly average prices are used. The symbols () depict the direction of price changes: the red upward-facing arrow denotes an increase of five percent or greater. The blue horizontal arrow denotes no change or changes that are smaller than 5 percent, and the green downward-facing arrow denotes price decreases that are five percent or greater. The three arrows respectively correspond to the percent change in prices this month compared to last month, last year, and the five-year average. The - symbol indicates that data are not available. The commodities with a reference (W) are wholesale prices. Otherwise, all reported prices are retail. FEWS NET fewsnetmt@fews.net FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The content of this report does not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government.

9 PRICE WATCH ANNEX January 29, 2016 Segou Rice (Gambiaca) Magta-lahjar Milled rice Mali XOF Mauritania MRO $0.54 $0.73 Sikasso Millet (Pearl) Refined sugar Mali XOF MRO 20 $0.33 $ Timbuktu Local milled rice Mali XOF MRO $0.53 $1.68 Adel Bagrou Milled rice Rice (100% Broken) Mauritania MRO MRO $0.86 $0.90 Refined sugar MRO MRO 27 $0.80 $ MRO MRO $1.68 $ Rice (100% Broken) Nouakchott MRO Mauritania MRO $1.21 $ Milled rice MRO MRO $0.40 $ West Africa MRO MRO 35 0 $0.60 $ Aoujeft Rice (100% Broken) Mauritania MRO MRO $1.34 $0.90 West Africa MRO MRO 30 0 $0.42 $ Boghé Milled rice Mauritania MRO MRO $0.64 $0.44 Refined sugar Agadez Millet (Pearl) MRO Niger XOF $0.67 $ MRO XOF $1.21 $1.37 Rice (100% Broken) Rice (5% Broken) MRO XOF 50 0 $0.73 $ Whole milk powder MRO XOF $0.85 $5.40 Bakin Birji Cowpeas (Mixed) MRO Niger XOF $0.42 $

10 Bakin Birji Millet (Pearl) Niamey Whole milk powder Niger XOF Niger XOF $0.22 $6.23 Diffa Cowpeas (Mixed) Ouallam Millet (Pearl) Niger XOF Niger XOF $0.52 $0.40 Millet (Pearl) Sabon Machi Cowpeas (Mixed) XOF Niger XOF $0.31 $0.32 Sorghum (Mixed) Tahoua Millet (Pearl) XOF Niger XOF $0.29 $ Gaya Maize (Mixed) Sorghum (Mixed) Niger XOF XOF $0.30 $0.34 Maradi Maize (Mixed) Tillabéri Millet (Pearl) Niger XOF Niger XOF $0.33 $0.36 Millet (Pearl) Sorghum (Mixed) XOF XOF $0.24 $ Tounfafi Cowpeas (Mixed) West Africa XOF Niger XOF $1.16 $0.40 Sorghum (Mixed) Dandume Local milled rice XOF Nigeria NGN $0.28 $0.57 Whole milk powder Millet (Pearl) XOF NGN $5.48 $0.28 Niamey Diesel Niger XOF NGN $0.89 $0.21 Gasoline Giwa XOF Nigeria NGN 5 $0.90 $0.25 Maize (Mixed) XOF NGN $0.32 $0.20 Millet (Pearl) Ibadan Bread XOF Nigeria NGN 25 $0.36 $1.27 Diesel XOF NGN $1.29 $0.65 Rice (5% Broken) Gasoline XOF NGN $0.66 $0.60 Sorghum (Mixed) XOF NGN $0.40 $0.33 West Africa

11 Ibadan Refined palm oil Dakar Millet Nigeria NGN Senegal XOF $1.35 $0.36 Rice (100% Broken) NGN XOF 27 $0.37 $ Ilela Millet (Pearl) Kaolak Millet Nigeria XOF Senegal XOF $0.23 $0.25 Sorghum (Mixed) Rice (100% Broken) XOF XOF $0.23 $0.45 Kano Diesel Saint-Louis Millet Nigeria NGN Senegal XOF $1.01 $0.32 Gasoline Rice (100% Broken) NGN XOF $0.61 $0.42 Groundnuts (In Shell) Tambacounda Millet NGN Senegal XOF $0.92 $0.30 (W) Ziguichor Maize (Yellow) NGN Senegal XOF $0.26 $0.42 West Africa Millet (Pearl) (W) Rice (100% Broken) NGN XOF 28 $0.24 $0.46 West Africa (W) NGN $0.21 Kaura Namoda Nigeria NGN $ NGN $ Lagos Nigeria Yams NGN $ Maiadua Millet (Pearl) Nigeria XOF $0.21 Sorghum (Mixed) XOF $ Saminaka Nigeria NGN $0.23 NGN $

12 Bujumbura Cassava Flour Kirundo Sorghum (Red) Burundi BIF Burundi BIF $0.54 $0.44 Cooking bananas Sweet potatoes BIF BIF $0.33 $0.21 Dry Beans (Mixed) Muyinga Cassava Flour BIF Burundi BIF $0.82 $0.46 Milled rice Cooking bananas BIF BIF $1.04 $ Sweet potatoes Dry Beans (Mixed) BIF BIF $0.23 $ Gitega Cassava Flour Burundi BIF BIF 82 $0.34 $ Cooking bananas Milled rice BIF BIF $0.18 $0.91 Dry Beans (Mixed) Sorghum (Red) BIF BIF $0.80 $0.59 Sweet potatoes BIF BIF $0.62 $0.18 Milled rice Ngozi Cassava Flour BIF Burundi BIF 65 $0.95 $0.42 Sorghum (Red) Cooking bananas BIF BIF $0.65 $0.22 Sweet potatoes Dry Beans (Mixed) BIF BIF $0.11 $0.83 Kirundo Cassava Flour Milled rice Burundi BIF BIF $0.42 $ Cooking bananas Sorghum (Red) BIF BIF $0.35 $ Dry Beans (Mixed) Sweet potatoes BIF BIF $0.89 $ Ruyigi Cassava Flour BIF Burundi BIF $0.56 $0.41 Milled rice Cooking bananas BIF BIF $0.89 $

13 Ruyigi Dry Beans (Mixed) Gode Sorghum (Yellow) Burundi BIF Ethiopia ETB $0.81 $0.36 Mekele (W) BIF Ethiopia ETB $0.49 $0.24 Milled rice Mixed Teff BIF ETB $0.97 $ Sorghum (Red) (W) BIF ETB $ $0.49 Sweet potatoes Nekemte (W) BIF Ethiopia ETB $0.15 $ Addis Ababa (W) Yabelo Ethiopia ETB Ethiopia ETB $0.22 $0.48 (W) Eldoret Dry Beans (Rosecoco) ETB Kenya KES $0.47 $ Addis Ababa Mixed Teff (W) Ethiopia ETB KES $0.75 $0.22 Sorghum (Yellow) Potatoes, Irish (white) (W) ETB KES $0.67 $ Bahir Dar (W) Sorghum (Red) (W) Ethiopia ETB KES $0.22 $0.65 Mixed Teff Kisumu Dry Beans (Rosecoco) ETB Kenya KES $0.68 $0.75 Bure (W) (W) Ethiopia ETB KES $0.21 $ (W) Potatoes, Irish (white) (W) ETB KES $0.36 $0.30 Dire Dawa Sorghum (Red) (W) Ethiopia ETB KES $0.31 $ (W) Mombasa Dry Beans (Rosecoco) ETB Kenya KES $0.55 $0.60 Dire Dawa Mixed Teff (W) Ethiopia ETB KES $0.76 $0.29 Gode Sorghum (Red) (W) Ethiopia ETB KES $0.28 $

14 Nairobi Dry Beans (Rosecoco) Burao Kenya KES Somalia SLS $0.66 $0.52 (W) KES SLS 1200 $0.29 $1.55 Potatoes, Irish (white) (W) Rice (Parboiled) KES SLS 500 $0.22 $ Sorghum (Red) (W) Sorghum (Red) KES SLS 300 $0.37 $ Baidoa Diesel El Dhere Cowpeas (Red) Somalia SOS Somalia SOS $0.88 $0.57 Gasoline Gadon SOS Somalia SOS $1.06 $1.41 Rice (Parboiled) SOS SOS 1900 $0.24 $0.84 Sorghum (Red) SOS SOS 1000 $1.08 $ Rice (Parboiled) Galkayo Cowpeas (Red) SOS Somalia SOS $0.62 $1.21 Sorghum (Red) Rice (Parboiled) SOS SOS 1625 $0.25 $0.72 Beled Hawa Sorghum (Red) Sorghum (Red) Somalia SOS SOS 1000 $0.57 $0.44 Beled Weyn Sorghum (Red) Garowe Rice (Parboiled) Somalia SOS Somalia SOS 1400 $0.31 $ Bossaso Rice (Parboiled) Hargeisa Rice (Parboiled) Somalia SOS Somalia SLS $0.63 $0.65 Buale Cowpeas (Red) Lugh Somalia SOS Somalia SOS 1300 $1.01 $0.57 Sorghum (Red) SOS SOS 1000 $0.34 $0.44 Burao Diesel Merka Cowpeas (Red) Somalia SLS Somalia SOS 1800 $0.65 $ Gasoline Mogadishu Cowpeas (Red) SLS Somalia SOS 1865 $0.93 $

15 Mogadishu Diesel Juba Wheat Flour Somalia SOS South Sudan SSP $0.79 $2.03 Gasoline Wau Groundnuts (Shelled) SOS South Sudan SSP $1.01 $1.35 SOS SSP $0.28 $ Wheat Flour SOS SSP 4 $0.93 $2.16 Rice (Parboiled) Ad-Damazin Millet SOS Sudan SDG $ $0.96 Sorghum (Red) Sorghum (Feterita) SOS SDG 2.91 $0.25 $0.48 Qorioley Diesel Somalia SOS SDG 6.67 $0.79 $ Gasoline Al Qadarif Millet SOS Sudan SDG $1.10 $0.82 Sorghum (Feterita) SOS SDG 3.11 $0.17 $0.51 SOS SDG 6.78 $1.06 $1.11 Rice (Parboiled) Dongola Millet SOS Sudan SDG $0.62 $1.23 Sorghum (Red) Sorghum (Feterita) SOS SDG 4.50 $0.33 $ Togwajale Somalia SLS SDG $0.37 $0.90 Aweil Groundnuts (Shelled) El Fasher Millet South Sudan SSP Sudan SDG 5.53 $1.35 $0.91 Sorghum (Feterita) SSP SDG 3.83 $0.49 $0.63 Juba South Sudan SSP SDG 5.70 $0.51 $ El Obeid Millet SSP Sudan SDG 5.61 $0.56 $

16 El Obeid Sorghum (Feterita) Arusha Milled rice (W) Sudan SDG Tanzania, United TZS 174 $0.60 Republic of $ Dar es Salaam Dry Beans (Mixed) (W) SDG Tanzania, United TZS $0.93 Republic of $0.92 Geneina Millet (W) Sudan SDG TZS $ $ Sorghum (Feterita) Milled rice (W) SDG TZS $0.49 $ Kadugli Millet Dodoma Dry Beans (Mixed) (W) Sudan SDG Tanzania, United TZS $0.87 Republic of $ Sorghum (Feterita) (W) SDG TZS $0.49 $ Milled rice (W) SDG TZS 185 $0.82 $0.87 Nyala Millet Iringa (W) Sudan SDG Tanzania, United TZS 57 $0.86 Republic of $0.27 Sorghum (Feterita) Milled rice (W) SDG TZS $0.60 $0.64 Kigoma Dry Beans (Mixed) (W) SDG Tanzania, United TZS $1.26 Republic of $0.80 Om Durman Millet (W) Sudan SDG TZS $0.82 $ Sorghum (Feterita) Milled rice (W) SDG TZS $0.66 $ Mbeya Dry Beans (Mixed) (W) SDG Tanzania, United TZS $0.98 Republic of $ Port Sudan Millet (W) Sudan SDG TZS $0.82 $ Sorghum (Feterita) Milled rice (W) SDG TZS $0.56 $ Arusha Dry Beans (Mixed) (W) Mtwara (W) Tanzania, United TZS Tanzania, United TZS Republic of $0.76 Republic of $ (W) Mwanza Milled rice (W) TZS Tanzania, United TZS $0.33 Republic of $

17 Songea Dry Beans (Mixed) (W) Al Hudaydah Wheat Flour Tanzania, United Republic of TZS Yemen YER $0.80 $ (W) Amran Wheat Flour TZS Yemen YER $0.24 $ Tanga Milled rice (W) Hajja Wheat Flour Tanzania, United Republic of TZS Yemen YER $0.85 $ Arua Cassava Chips Sa'ada Wheat Flour Uganda UGX Yemen YER $0.36 $0.79 Gulu Dry Beans (K124/Nabe 4) Sana'a Wheat Flour Uganda UGX Yemen YER $0.78 $0.67 Kampala Cooking bananas Uganda UGX $0.39 Dry Beans (Mixed) (W) USD 0.59 $ UGX $0.44 Sorghum (Red) (W) USD 0.26 $ Lira Uganda Dry Beans (K124/Nabe 4) UGX $ Masindi Uganda Dry Beans (Mixed) (W) USD 0.64 $0.64 (W) USD 0.23 $0.23 Sorghum (Red) (W) USD 0.16 $ Mbarara Cooking bananas Uganda UGX $0.32 Dry Beans (K124/Nabe 4) UGX 250 $ Soroti Millet (Finger) Uganda UGX $0.36 Aden Yemen Wheat Flour YER $

18 Karonga Cassava Salima Malawi MWK Malawi MWK $0.16 $ Milled rice MWK MWK $0.30 $0.79 Milled rice Chókwe Cowpeas (Mixed) MWK Mozambique MZN $0.86 $1.09 Lilongwe Cassava Malawi MWK MZN $0.72 $ Rice (5% Broken) MWK MZN 3 $0.26 $ Milled rice Gorongosa Cowpeas (Mixed) MWK Mozambique MZN $0.90 $ Lunzu Cassava Malawi MWK MZN $0.51 $ Southern Africa Maputo Cowpeas (Mixed) MWK Mozambique MZN $0.29 $0.95 Milled rice Diesel MWK MZN $0.85 $0.80 Mitundu Cassava Maize Meal Malawi MWK MZN $0.29 $0.71 MWK MZN $0.23 $0.30 Milled rice MWK MZN $0.85 $1.20 Mzuzu Cassava Rice (5% Broken) Malawi MWK MZN $ $0.54 Maxixe Cowpeas (Mixed) MWK Mozambique MZN $0.23 $0.73 Milled rice MWK MZN $1.10 $0.62 Nsanje Rice (5% Broken) Malawi MWK MZN $0.26 $0.68 Salima Cassava Nampula Cowpeas (Mixed) Malawi MWK Mozambique MZN $0.18 $1.08 Southern Africa

19 Nampula Diesel Lusaka Mozambique MZN Zambia ZMW 2.22 $0.84 $ Roller Maize Meal MZN ZMW $0.37 $0.22 Mansa MZN Zambia ZMW $1.31 $0.19 Rice (5% Broken) Roller Maize Meal MZN ZMW $0.62 $ Tete Cowpeas (Mixed) Mongu Mozambique MZN Zambia ZMW $0.61 $0.19 Roller Maize Meal MZN ZMW $0.37 $0.25 Rice (5% Broken) Solwezi MZN Zambia ZMW $0.98 $0.18 Southern Africa Chipata Roller Maize Meal Zambia ZMW ZMW $0.21 $0.23 Roller Maize Meal Bulawayo ZMW Zimbabwe USD $0.23 $0.46 Choma Roller Maize Meal 0 Zambia ZMW USD $0.23 $0.65 Kabwe Gwanda Zambia ZMW Zimbabwe USD $0.20 $0.57 Southern Africa Roller Maize Meal Roller Maize Meal ZMW USD 0.65 $0.24 $ Kasama Harare Diesel Zambia ZMW Zimbabwe USD $0.21 $ Roller Maize Meal Gasoline ZMW USD $0.21 $1.29 Kitwe Zambia ZMW USD $0.19 $0.34 Roller Maize Meal Roller Maize Meal ZMW USD $0.23 $0.47 Lusaka Diesel Masvingo Zambia ZMW Zimbabwe USD $0.80 $

20 Masvingo Roller Maize Meal San Jose Dry Beans (Black) (W) Zimbabwe USD Costa Rica USD 1.75 $0.60 $1.75 Dry Beans (Red) (W) USD 2.77 $2.77 (W) USD 0.74 $0.74 Refined sugar (W) USD $1.11 Ahuachapán El Salvador Dry Beans (Seda Red) (W) USD 1.09 $1.09 (W) USD 0.38 $ La Unión Dry Beans (Seda Red) (W) El Salvador USD $1.46 (W) Southern Africa Central America and Caribbean San Miguel El Salvador USD 0.47 $0.47 Dry Beans (Red) (W) USD 1.16 $1.16 Dry Beans (Seda Red) (W) USD 1.28 $ (W) USD $0.41 San Salvador El Salvador Dry Beans (Red) USD 1.39 $1.39 Dry Beans (Seda Red) USD $1.59 USD 0.49 $ Refined sugar USD $0.99 Rice (10% Broken) USD 0.99 $ Santa Ana Dry Beans (Seda Red) (W) El Salvador USD $

21 Santa Ana (W) Hinche Wheat Flour El Salvador USD Haiti HTG $0.40 $0.66 San Vicente Dry Beans (Seda Red) (W) Jacmel Dry Beans (Black) El Salvador USD Haiti HTG $1.28 $2.38 (W) Maize Meal USD HTG $0.41 $0.79 Usulután Dry Beans (Seda Red) (W) Refined sugar El Salvador USD HTG $1.21 $ (W) USD HTG $0.43 $2.00 Guatemala City Diesel Rice (4% Broken) Guatemala GTQ HTG $0.57 $0.99 Gasoline Wheat Flour GTQ HTG $0.67 $1.19 Cap Haitien Dry Beans (Black) Jeremie Dry Beans (Black) Central America and Caribbean Haiti HTG Haiti HTG $2.48 $2.25 Maize Meal Maize Meal HTG HTG Refined sugar $0.66 $0.79 Refined sugar HTG HTG $0.99 $1.19 Central America and Caribbean HTG HTG $1.76 $1.91 Rice (4% Broken) Rice (4% Broken) HTG HTG $0.87 $1.03 Hinche Dry Beans (Black) Wheat Flour Haiti HTG HTG $2.32 $0.79 Maize Meal Port-au-Prince Dry Beans (Black) HTG Haiti HTG $0.66 $2.05 Refined sugar Maize Meal HTG HTG $1.32 $ Refined sugar HTG HTG $1.43 $0.99 Rice (4% Broken) HTG HTG $0.98 $

22 Port-au-Prince Rice (4% Broken) Mexico City Rice (10% Broken) (W) Haiti HTG Mexico MXN $0.79 $ Wheat Flour Managua Dry Beans (Black) (W) HTG Nicaragua NIO $0.66 $ Choluteca Dry Beans (Red) (W) Dry Beans (Red) (W) Honduras HNL NIO $0.95 $1.08 (W) Dry Beans (Tinto) (W) HNL NIO $0.38 $ Comayagua Dry Beans (Red) (W) (W) Honduras HNL NIO $0.93 $0.42 (W) Rice (20% Broken) (W) HNL NIO $0.39 $0.98 Siguatepeque Dry Beans (Red) (W) Rice (4% Broken) (W) Honduras HNL NIO $0.90 $0.97 (W) (W) Central America and Caribbean Tegucigalpa Honduras HNL NIO $0.38 $0.51 Dry Beans (Red) HNL $1.15 HNL 9.01 $ Central America and Caribbean Rice (4% Broken) Mexico City Mexico HNL $0.95 Dry Beans (Black) (W) MXN $0.85 Dry Beans (Red) (W) MXN $1.06 Eggs (Fresh, White) (W) MXN $1.15 (W) MXN 5.20 $0.31 Refined sugar (W) MXN $0.63 (W) MXN $

23 Faizabad Rice (Low Grade) Kandahar Wheat Flour (Low Afghanistan AFN Afghanistan AFN $0.67 $0.38 Wheat Flour (Low AFN AFN $0.42 $0.39 Maimana Rice (Low Grade) AFN Afghanistan AFN $0.38 $0.55 Hirat Diesel Wheat Flour (Low Afghanistan AFN AFN $0.53 $ AFN AFN $1.00 $0.34 Rice (Low Grade) Mazar-e-Sharif Diesel AFN Afghanistan AFN $0.41 $0.62 Wheat Flour (Low AFN AFN $0.41 $1.15 Central Asia Rice (Low Grade) AFN AFN $0.30 $0.56 Jalalabad Rice (Low Grade) Wheat Flour (Low Afghanistan AFN AFN $0.44 $0.37 Wheat Flour (Low AFN AFN $0.35 $0.33 Nili Rice (Low Grade) Central Asia AFN Afghanistan AFN $0.33 $0.89 Kabul Diesel Wheat Flour (Low Afghanistan AFN AFN $0.58 $ AFN AFN $1.16 $0.48 Rice (Low Grade) Karachi Rice (Long Grain, Basmati) AFN Pakistan PKR $0.86 $ Wheat Flour (Low Rice (Long Grain, IRRI-6) AFN PKR $0.37 $ Wheat Flour AFN PKR $0.38 $0.43 Kandahar Rice (Low Grade) Afghanistan AFN PKR $0.41 $

24 Lahore Rice (Long Grain, IRRI-6) Pakistan PKR $0.44 Wheat Flour PKR $ Multan Pakistan PKR $0.34 Rice (Long Grain, Basmati) PKR $0.60 Rice (Long Grain, IRRI-6) PKR $0.34 Wheat Flour PKR $ PKR $ Peshawar Pakistan Rice (Long Grain, Basmati) PKR $ Central Asia Rice (Long Grain, IRRI-6) PKR $0.40 Wheat Flour PKR $0.38 PKR $ Quetta Pakistan Rice (Long Grain, IRRI-6) PKR 5 $0.48 Wheat Flour PKR $

25 Jan-10 Jan-10 Jan-10 Jan-10 Jan-10 Jan-10 PRICE WATCH ANNEX 2 December 2015 Prices January 29, 2016 Figure 1. Millet prices in West Africa ( ) Figure 2. Sorghum prices in West Africa ( ) Moundou, Chad Segou, Segou centre, Mali Kaolak, Senegal Solenzo, Burkina Faso Maradi, Niger Maradi, Niger Segou, Segou centre, Mali Kano, Nigeria (W) Moundou, Chad Bobo Dioulasso, Burkina Faso West Africa Figure 3. Maize prices in West Africa ( ) Figure 4. Rice prices in West Africa ( ) Bol, Chad Malanville, Benin Bamako, Mali Dakar, Tilène, Senegal * Bobo Dioulasso, Burkina Faso Kano, Nigeria (W) Monrovia, Red Light, Liberia * * imported rice Sources of prices in West Africa: Information System on agricultural markets (SIMA) Niger, Agricultural Market Observatory (OMA) Mali, Burkina Faso SONAGESS, Information System market (SIM) in Senegal and FEWS NET. Figure 5. Dry bean prices in ( ) Figure 6. Sorghum prices in ( ) Arusha, Tanzania (W) Eldoret, Kenya (W) Kigali City, Rwanda Masindi, Uganda (W) Al Qadarif, Sudan Kampala, Uganda (W) Dire Dawa, Ethiopia (W) Baidoa, Somalia Juba, South Sudan (FEWS NET) monitors trends in staple food prices in countries vulnerable to food insecurity. The Price Watch Annex 2 provides prices trends for key markets and staple foods monitored across FEWS NET countries and regions. The commodities with a reference (W) are wholesale prices. Otherwise, all reported prices are retail. FEWS NET fewsnetmt@fews.net FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The content of this report does not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government.

26 Jan-10 Jan-10 Jan-10 Jan-10 Jan-10 Jan-10 PRICE WATCH ANNEX January 2016 Figure 7. Maize prices in surplus areas of ( ) Figure 8. Maize prices in deficit areas of ( ) Arusha, Tanzania (W) Eldoret, Kenya (W) Qorioley, Somalia Bahir Dar, Ethiopia (W) Kampala, Uganda (W) Songea, Tanzania (W) Dire Dawa, Ethiopia (W) Jijiga, Ethiopia Nairobi, Kenya (W) Jamame, Somalia Juba, South Sudan Sources of prices in : Food and Agriculture Market Information System (FAMIS) FSTS/FEWS NET in Somalia, Uganda Bureau of Statistics and Farmgain, Tanzania Ministry of Industry, Trade and Marketing (MITM), Ethiopia Grain Trade Enterprise (EGTE), Ministry of Agriculture of Kenya, Arid Lands Resource Management Project (ALRMP), SIFSIA, WFP VAM Figure 9. White maize prices in Southern Africa ( ) Figure 10. Bean and cowpea prices in Southern Africa ( ) Southern Africa Lilongwe, Malawi Harare, Zimbabwe Mbeya, Tanzania (W) Lusaka, Zambia Maputo, Mozambique Randfontein, South Africa Arusha, Tanzania (W) * Dodoma, Tanzania (W) * Maputo, Mozambique * dry beans ** cowpeas ** Nampula, Mozambique ** Sources of prices in Southern Africa: Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation, and Water Development of Malawi, Ministry of Industry, Trade and Marketing (MITM)) of Tanzania, Ministry of Agriculture of Mozambique, Central Statistics Office of Zambia, SAFEX, WFP and FEWS NET. Figure 11. White maize prices in Central America ( ) Figure 12. Dry bean prices in Central America ( ) Central America and Caribbean Guatemala City, Guatemala San Salvador, El Salvador Tegucigalpa, Honduras Managua, Nicaragua (W) Mexico City, Mexico (W) Guatemala City, Guatemala * (W) * Managua, Nicaragua ** ** San Salvador, El Salvador San Jose, Costa Rica (W) ** ** Tegucigalpa, Honduras ** ** * black beans ** red beans 20