PRICE WATCH May 2015 Prices June 30, 2015

Transcription

1 PRICE WATCH May 2015 Prices June 30, 2015 KEY MESSAGES In West Africa, market availability was adequate in May, with supplies from recent 2014/15 harvests and international rice and wheat imports. Staple food prices were stable or declining, except in areas directly and indirectly affected by the conflict in northeastern Nigeria. The recent opening of borders among Ebola-affected countries contributed to improved trade flows in some areas, following disruptions over the second half of In East Africa, maize prices increased seasonally in surplus-producing Uganda and in Ethiopia, Somalia, and Kenya. Maize prices were stable or began decreasing in Tanzania with the onset of the May-to-August harvests. Sorghum prices were stable in Sudan and Somalia. Staple food prices were high and variable in the Greater Upper Nile States of South Sudan. Conflict and insecurity continued to disrupt markets in parts of South Sudan, Somalia, the Darfur and South Kordofan States in Sudan, and across Yemen. In Southern Africa, regional staple food availability increased in May as fresh supplies from recent harvests arrived onto markets across the region. Production during the 2014/15 production year is estimated to be below-average in the region s surplus-producing countries and at the regional level. Maize prices varied across the region, decreasing seasonally in Zambia and Mozambique, and varying considerably elsewhere. Staple food availability remained generally adequate to meet local needs throughout Central America and Haiti. However, market supplies were below-average across the region due to the effects of below-average harvests over the past year and high seed demand for planting. Maize, red bean, and black bean prices were seasonally stable in Central America while prices in varied in Haiti. Regionally-produced staple food prices were generally close to five-year average levels throughout Central America. In Central Asia, wheat availability remained good in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Prices remained stable in Kazakhstan and Tajikistan after increasing over the last quarter of International maize, rice, wheat, and soybean prices were stable and below their respective 2014 levels. Global markets are well-supplied global markets from record or nearrecord global production in 2014 and overall favorable prospects for 2015 crops. Crude oil prices increased again in May, but remained belowaverage. Figure 1. FEWS NET regional price indices and FAO Food Price Index, January 2010 May 2015 Sources: FAO and FEWS NET (FEWS NET) monitors trends in staple food prices in countries at risk of food insecurity. The Price Watch provides an update on market and price trends in selected reference markets. Specific trends for key reference markets and commodities are available in the Price Watch Annexes 1 and 2. FEWS NET gratefully acknowledges partner organizations, ministries of agriculture, national market information systems, the Regional Agricultural Intelligence Network, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the World Food Programme (WFP), and others for their assistance in providing price data. FEWS NET fewsnetmt@fews.net FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The content of this report does not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government

2 PRICE WATCH June 2015 INTERNATIONAL MARKETS situation International rice prices were stable in May but below their 2014 levels. World production for 2014 was comparable to the previous year; good harvests in the United States (U.S.) and Asia offset lower production in South Asia where rainfall was late or insufficient. Global trade increased slightly between 2013 and 2014, driven mostly by growth in African import demand (InterRice). The Thai government announced in May that it currently has 16 million MT of rice stocks, of which only 5 million MT are good quality rice. The government plans to resume public tenders for 2 million MT of state reserves in June and July and sell the remainder of low quality rice for industrial use (USDA). Figure 2. Food commodity prices in selected international markets, January 2010 May 2015 Sources: FAO and World Bank World maize prices were stable in May and remained lower (by over 20 percent) than 2014 price levels (IGC and FAO). These price trends were driven by favorable crop prospects in key maize producing and exporting countries, especially the U.S., the European Union (E.U.), China, Ukraine, the Russian Federation, Canada, and Mexico (AMIS). World maize production estimates for 2014/15 remain comparable to 2013/14 levels (AMIS and IGC). International wheat prices were stable in May with ample supplies and favorable prospects for the 2015 global harvest. Global production estimates remain high and are expected to be the second highest on record. High exports from the E.U. offset reduced exports from Argentina, increasing global trade in May (USDA FAS). Global prices were well below their respective 2014 levels (IGC and AMIS). World soybean prices were stable in May and below 2014 levels (by over 20 percent) due to expected large supplies. Global supplies are very high with U.S. stocks more than four times greater than their respective 2013/14 levels. Production in South America is expected to break record levels, with a record crop expected in Brazil due to increased yield and area planted(amis). International crude oil prices continued to increase in May, marking the highest monthly average price of 2015 and up by 33 percent since January (U.S. Energy Information Administration and World Bank). Global crude oil prices declined steadily from June 2014 until January 2015 as result of ample global supplies from continued rapid expansion of unconventional oil production in North America and the reemergence of oil from suppliers such as Libya and Iraq and weakening global import demand. The decision of OPEC to allow markets determine the prices rather than artificially restricting supplies largely contributed to these trends. Last month s continued price recovery is due to higher global oil demand growth, prospects of supply drawbacks in the Middle East and North Africa, and possibly tightening US oil production (U.S. Energy Information Administration). Outlook Global rice production for 2015/2016 is projected to reach a new record but could change depending on the effect of El Nino on production in Asia (IGC). World demand is expected to rise to a new peak, which may cause stocks to decline for the first time since 2005 (AMIS and IGC). Global maize production is projected to be comparable to last year s record crop with improved prospects last month in China and Mexico (AMIS and IGC). Although global maize demand is projected to expand, large inventories in China, Argentina, Brazil, the E.U., and the U.S. indicate that world ending stocks will remain high (AMIS). World wheat production for 2015/16 is projected to be the second largest harvest on record, only slightly below the 2014/15 record level (IGC and USDA FAS). Trade is expected to decrease slightly with Russia s exports lower due to the new Famine Early Warning Systems Network 2

3 PRICE WATCH June 2015 wheat export duty, which started on February 1 and will last until June 30 in response to recent depreciation of the local currency and resulting increase in export demand and domestic prices increases (USDA FAS). Global stocks ending in 2015 are projected to reach their highest level in thirteen years, but consumption is also expected to rise (AMIS and IGC). The global soybean production forecast indicates record global production in 2014/15, with increases in outputs from Argentina and Brazil (AMIS). Global consumption is forecast to rise as well and world trade is projected to reach a new record level (AMIS and IGC). International crude oil prices are expected to remain stable over 2015, with the 2015 average price projected to be over 40 percent lower than that of However, fuel prices may increase in some importing countries due to the depreciation of the local currency vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar and changing local fuel price policies (U.S. Energy Information Administration and World Bank). Staple food price trends across the FEWS NET countries will vary considerably in the coming months in response to local and regional market conditions; international market trends will play a more limited role in most countries (Figure 1). Fuel price trends in FEWS NET countries will depend on both international market conditions, the evolution of local exchange rates in relation to the U.S. Dollar, and the design and implementation of local fuel import and price policies. Famine Early Warning Systems Network 3

4 PRICE WATCH June 2015 Situation WEST AFRICA In West Africa, regional markets were generally well-supplied in May with 2014/15 cereal harvests (maize, sorghum, and millet) and stable imports of rice and wheat from international markets. Carryover stocks from the 2013/14 marketing year and 2014/15 production were generally above average in the region s surplus-producing countries (Nigeria, Benin, Ghana, the Côte d Ivoire, Mali, and Burkina Faso), resulting in aboveaverage levels of exportable regional surpluses. Household demand on markets started increasing in April, with the onset of the lean season. Market demand is relatively lower than average due to the availability of above-average stocks, with the exception of the western part of the Sahel (Mauritania and Senegal). Trade flows within the region are generally taking place without any major disruptions and markets remain very well-supplied in the central marketing basin (Burkina Faso, Mali, Benin, and western Niger). The exception to these general trends are those areas directly and indirectly affected by the violence and conflict in the Lake Chad area emanating from north Eastern Nigeria and the Central African Republic (CAR). Market activities have ceased in parts of northeastern Nigeria, which has in turn affected local food availability and food availability in neighboring Diffa (Niger). Markets remain open and operational across most of the Ebolaaffected countries, with the exception of a few weekly rural markets in Sierra Leone. Although rice imports from international markets continue largely unhindered, market activities nevertheless remain at below-normal levels in many area. Outlook Figures 3. Millet prices in West Africa Figures 4. Rice prices in West Africa Sources: Information System on agricultural markets (SIMA) Niger, Agricultural Market Observatory (OMA) Mali, Burkina Faso SONAGESS, Information System market (SIM) in Senegal, the World Food Programme (WFP), and FEWSNET. Although the season has started later than usual in the Soudanienne zone of the region (notably northern Ghana, with extended periods of dryness), remaining stocks from the current marketing year coupled with imports are generally expected to be adequate to cover regional needs. Prices of regionally-produced grains are expected to increase gradually with the progression of the lean season. Market activities and supplies are expected to remain below-average in northeastern Nigeria and neighboring Lake Chad and in the CAR. The USD has appreciated in comparison to regional currencies in recent months. FEWS NET will continue to monitor the evolution of the value of the USD compared to regional currencies as well as international rice market trends to determine the extent to which this may affect regional rice imports, particularly for coastal Mauritania, Senegal, Liberia, and Nigeria. Famine Early Warning Systems Network 4

5 PRICE WATCH June 2015 Situation EAST AFRICA Regional availability and price trends varied across East Africa in May (Figure 5 and 6). In surplus-producing areas of Uganda and Tanzania, staple food prices followed their respective seasonal trends in May, increasing in Uganda with the progression of the local lean season and decreasing in the southern highlands of Tanzania. Upcoming and ongoing harvests in key production areas are expected to be average and below 2014 levels (a bumper year in both countries). Exportable surpluses of maize and dry beans, among others, are expected to continue supplying deficit areas of neighboring countries. The availability of substitute crops in both countries will help maintain prices at or below their respective average levels. In South Sudan, the parallel exchange rate fell sharply in April and May. Staple food prices increased sharply in May due to a combination of factors including high levels of trader uncertainty about the macroeconomic situation, fuel shortages, as well as the declining value of the local currency to procure goods on regional markets. The crisis in Yemen has severely affected local markets, resulting in steep staple food price increases in May. Although supplies are available in the port town of Al Hudaydah, those supplies are unable to circulate throughout the rest of the country due to insecurity along key national marketing corridors. In Ethiopia, the effects of two years of above-average Meher harvests on market supplies are expected to offset some effects of the recent below-average Belg season. Outlook *Denotes the parallel exchange rate in South Sudan Staple food prices are expected to continue following Source: WFP South Sudan, FEWS NET, IMF their respective seasonal trends in Uganda and Tanzania. The strategic grain of Tanzania reserve has neither sold off last year s supplies nor has it started purchasing for this year. Either activities will have limited impacts on local markets. Figure 5. Maize prices in surplus areas of East Africa Sources: Food and Agriculture Market Information System (FAMIS) FSTS/FEWS NET in Somalia, Uganda Bureau of Statistics and Farmgain, Tanzania Ministry of Industry, Trade and Marketing (MITM), Ethiopia Grain Trade Enterprise (EGTE), Ministry of Agriculture of Kenya, Arid Lands Resource Management Project (ALRMP), SIFSIA, WFP VAM and Save the Children. Figure 6. South Sudan Prices and Exchange Rate Staple food prices in South Sudan are expected to continue increasing faster than normal with the progression of the lean season due to the effects of high levels of uncertainty and high transport costs on grain marketing. Livestock exports from the Greater Horn of Africa to the Middle East often transit through Yemen before reaching their final destination. The situation is Yemen is not expected to affect livestock export-earnings in East Africa, as traders use alternative routes. Belg-dependent areas of the Ethiopia will rely on supplies from the western areas of the country for longer than usual in Famine Early Warning Systems Network 5

6 PRICE WATCH June 2015 Situation SOUTHERN AFRICA In Southern Africa, fresh supplies from early harvests began to reach markets and improve staple food availability in most countries between April and May. At the regional level, 2015 maize production is estimated to be below the five-year average production by more than ten percent and over 20 percent below last year s bumper harvest. Above-average carry-over stocks from the 2014 bumper harvest are expected to help offset the effects of the estimated below-average 2015 harvests. Total supply in South Africa, the maize import source for structurally-deficit countries of the region region, is estimated at over 15 percent below average levels. Total supply in Malawi and Zimbabwe are both estimated to be between 20 and 35 percent below average levels. Maize grain prices in May varied across the region and within some countries. Prices generally decreased seasonally in Zambia and Mozambique while in Malawi, Tanzania, South Africa, and Zimbabwe prices decreased or were stable in surplus-producing areas but continued increasing during the harvest period in some deficit areas. Maize prices were similar or higher (especially in Malawi and South Africa) than their respective 2014 levels with the exception of Zambia, where prices were similar or lower. Prices in all countries were above their respective five-year average levels. In Malawi, maize prices are currently double their -500 Les Mal Moz RSA Tan Zam Zim Total respective five-year average levels. These above -1,000 average prices are a result of very poor harvest 2015/16 5-yr_avg prospects for 2015 and lingering effects of inflation -1,500 since 2012 when the local currency was devalued. Sources: SADC, FEWS NET, and Government Ministries Informal maize imports into Malawi continued increasing by 18 percent between April and May, as traders imported grain from neighboring countries to avert staple food shortages in Malawi, but were 36 percent below five-year average volumes. The largest flows of maize during the month of May came from Mozambique to southern Malawi. In Zimbabwe, prices were generally higher than their respective 2014 levels due to anticipation of significantly reduced harvests in 2015 compared to last year. Formal maize exports from Zambia increased by 12 percent in April as compared to March, with 96 percent of the exports destined for Zimbabwe. Outlook Figure 7. White maize prices in Southern Africa Sources: Malawi Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation, and Water Development (MITM), Zambia Central Statistics Office, and SAFEX. Figure 8. Estimated maize surplus/shortfall volumes in Southern Africa (000s MT) 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Estimated exportable surpluses from South Africa, typically the region s largest producer and exporter, are expected to be negligible over the 2015/16 marketing year (less than 20% of average annual surpluses). Despite the presence of above-average exportable surpluses from Zambia and Tanzania, above-average demand for maize grain from these countries in East Africa and persistent strong demand from Central Africa (the DRC) will likely create competition for other import-dependent countries in the region that import from South Africa during normal years. This could create important supply disruptions in deficit areas (including Zimbabwe and southern Malawi) and result in atypical price increases as the marketing year progresses. Demand for Southern African maize from elsewhere in Sub-Saharan Africa and international markets will depend on its price competitiveness and its ability to meet quality standards. Famine Early Warning Systems Network 6

7 PRICE WATCH June 2015 Situation CENTRAL AMERICA AND CARIBBEAN In Central America, white maize, black bean, red bean, and rice prices generally followed seasonal trends and were stable between April and May. The availability and prices of imported rice and wheat flour remained stable in Haiti in May due the availability of international supplies and a relatively stable local currency. In Central America, staple food supplies are sufficient to meet needs but are below-average. Although the recent 2015 Postrera harvests were average, below-average 2014 Primera harvests, continues to have a lingering effect on markets. Guatemala is an exception and has average food supply levels a result of recent average production in Peten and the availability of imports from Mexico. Figure 9. White maize prices in Central America Figure 10. Black bean prices in Haiti Red bean markets are still recovering in Guatemala, El Salvador, and Honduras and are now approaching respective five-year average levels and are either below or similar to 2014 prices as a result of the average Postrera harvest (El Salvador) and Apante harvests (Honduras and Nicaragua). Maize prices were similar to five-year average prices in Guatemala, and only slightly above five-year average prices in Honduras and El Salvador, while rice prices were below the five-year average in Guatemala and similar to the five-year average in Honduras and El Salvador. In Haiti, domestic supplies of locally-produced maize and black beans are below-average, resulting in variable price trends. Bean prices in the northern areas of the country increased sharply in recent months due to reduced local availability and reduced imports from neighboring Dominican Republic, where production was affected by unfavorable growing conditions in key border areas. Outlook Sources: Coordination nationale de la sécurité alimentaire (CNSA) and FEWS NET, MAL, Dirección General de Economía Agropecuaria (DGECA), Sistema de Información de Mercados Productos Agrícolas de Honduras (SIMPAH), Secretaria de Economia de Mexico, and Ministerio de Agricultura, Ganaderia y Alimentacion de Guatemala (MAGA). In Central America, imported rice prices are expected to remain stable while maize, red bean, and black beans prices are expected to begin a seasonal increase starting in June. dryness across the region may affect planting for the Primera season, which is the main maize harvest. In Haiti, international imports and prices of rice and wheat are expected to remain stable in the coming months. Harvests from the current spring growing season are expected to be up to 50 percent below average. Locally produced maize grain, flour, and black bean prices will likely continue increasing in the short term, but may stabilize temporarily during the immediate post-harvest period. Famine Early Warning Systems Network 7

8 PRICE WATCH June 2015 Situation CENTRAL ASIA Regional availability and price trends varied considerably across Central Asia over the 2014/15 marketing year and in May (Figure 11 and 12, Table 1). Wheat grain export prices in Kazakhstan, the region s largest exporter, were stable between April and May of 2015 and were similar to respective 2014 levels but were ten percent higher than the five-year average. In Tajikistan potatoes prices decreased significantly in May after regional potato imports, mostly from Pakistan, entered into local markets. The price of wheat flour (mostly imported from regional markets) were stable in May, but at their highest levels since Contributing factors were lower domestic wheat production in 2014, high priced imported wheat from Kazakhstan, and the depreciation of the local currency (TJS) by over 20 percent compared to the USD and KZT in the past year. In Pakistan, another regional exporter, wheat grain and flour prices were either on par with or below their respective 2014 levels with the conclusion of recent above-average harvests. In Afghanistan, both wheat grain and flour prices were stable or began decreasing between April and May, with the onset of the 2015 harvests, particularly in lower-elevation areas. Although the Afghani (AFN) has depreciated vis-à-vis the USD, diesel prices are 25 to 32 percent below their respective 2014 levels. Outlook Regional availability and prices are expected to continue varying in Central Asia over the 2015/16 marketing year. Figures 11. Wheat grain prices in Central Asia Figures 12. Wheat flour prices in Central Asia Sources: World Food Programme and APK Inform Agency, Kazakhstan Table 1. Regional wheat availability and price trends Area planted with wheat and production levels in Country Status Local availability 2015 Prices Kazakhstan are expected to be slightly below their Kazakhstan Exporter Below-average Above-average respective 2014 and five-year average levels Pakistan Exporter Above-average Above-average (FAS/Astana). Over the past six years, the government has supported a national agricultural diversification strategy, Tajikistan Importer Average Record high including reducing area planted with wheat to focus on Afghanistan Importer Above-average Above-average other grains and oilseeds. Despite this, export volumes are expected to remain close to six MMT over the 2015/16 Source: FEWS NET estimates marketing year. In Afghanistan, a recent joint WFP, FAO, and FEWS NET assessment found that local harvests will be above their respective 2014 and five-year average levels. Prices will decline during the post-harvest period. Wheat flour prices in Tajikistan are likely to remain at their currently levels until local harvests arrive onto markets in July. Local production and regional imports will determine domestic wheat availability over the 2015/16 marketing year. The Tajikistan government has imposed tough exchange rate regulations since the first quarter of 2015 in an effort to stabilize the TJS. This may contribute to stabilizing the costs of regional imports. The recently concluded wheat harvests in Pakistan reached record levels for a second year in a row (SUPARCO). As a result of this and the availability of large carryover stocks, concerns have been raised about this year s producer support price policy, which could limit the extent to which prices decline on markets during the post-harvest period. The Government has likewise begun negotiating exports to Indonesia and Bangladesh. Famine Early Warning Systems Network 8

9 PRICE WATCH ANNEX 1 May 2015 Prices 30 June, 2015 Central America and Caribbean San Jose Dry Beans (Black) (W) San Salvador Rice (10% Broken) Costa Rica USD El Salvador USD $1.93 $1.06 Dry Beans (Red) (W) Santa Ana Dry Beans (Seda Red) (W) USD El Salvador USD $2.88 $1.55 (W) (W) USD USD $0.70 $0.47 Refined sugar (W) San Vicente Dry Beans (Seda Red) (W) USD El Salvador USD $1.11 $1.67 Ahuachapán Dry Beans (Seda Red) (W) (W) El Salvador USD USD $1.55 $0.43 (W) Usulután Dry Beans (Seda Red) (W) USD El Salvador USD $0.45 $1.68 La Unión Dry Beans (Seda Red) (W) (W) El Salvador USD USD 0.45 $1.92 $0.45 (W) Chiquimula Dry Beans (Black) USD (Eastern) GTQ 9.11 $0.49 Guatemala $1.20 San Miguel Dry Beans (Red) (W) El Salvador USD GTQ 3.11 $1.53 $0.41 Dry Beans (Seda Red) (W) Rice (10% Broken) USD GTQ $1.70 $1.48 (W) Guatemala City Diesel USD Guatemala GTQ $0.47 $0.74 San Salvador Dry Beans (Red) Dry Beans (Black) El Salvador USD GTQ $1.74 $1.39 Dry Beans (Seda Red) Gasoline USD GTQ $1.94 $0.86 USD GTQ $0.53 $0.45 Refined sugar Maize (Yellow) USD GTQ $0.93 $0.52 Central America and Caribbean (FEWS NET) monitors trends in staple food prices in countries vulnerable to food insecurity. The Price Watch Annex 1 provides prices and price changes for key markets and staple foods monitored across FEWS NET countries and regions. The prices are final monthly average prices for May The commodities include staples most often consumed by the poor. Additional commodities provided are important commodities consumed in the same areas or fuel prices that affect food prices. Final monthly average prices are used. The symbols () depict the direction of price changes: the red upward-facing arrow denotes an increase of five percent or greater, The blue horizontal arrow denotes no change or changes that are smaller than 5 percent, and the green downward-facing arrow denotes price decreases that are five percent or greater. The three arrows respectively correspond to the percent change in prices this month compared to last month, last year, and the five-year average. The - symbol indicates that data are not available. The commodities with a reference (W) are wholesale prices. Otherwise, all reported prices are retail. FEWS NET fewsnetmt@fews.net FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The content of this report does not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government.

10 PRICE WATCH ANNEX 30 June, 2015 Central America and Caribbean Huehuetenango Dry Beans (Black) Jacmel Dry Beans (Black) (Western) GTQ Haiti HTG Guatemala $1.39 $2.15 Maize Meal GTQ HTG $0.36 $0.67 Rice (10% Broken) Refined sugar GTQ HTG $1.44 $1.26 Peten La Dry Beans (Black) Terminal (North) GTQ HTG Guatemala $1.46 $1.70 Rice (4% Broken) GTQ HTG $0.32 $1.14 Rice (10% Broken) Wheat Flour GTQ HTG $1.46 $0.95 Cap Haitien Dry Beans (Black) Jeremie Dry Beans (Black) Haiti HTG Haiti HTG $2.76 $1.89 Maize Meal Maize Meal HTG HTG Refined sugar $0.79 $0.63 Refined sugar HTG HTG $1.06 $1.34 HTG HTG $1.70 $1.99 Rice (4% Broken) Rice (4% Broken) HTG HTG $0.97 $1.13 Hinche Dry Beans (Black) Wheat Flour Haiti HTG HTG $2.41 $0.63 Maize Meal Port-au-Prince Dry Beans (Black) HTG Haiti HTG $0.67 $1.97 Refined sugar Maize Meal HTG HTG $1.58 $0.55 Refined sugar HTG HTG $1.70 $1.18 Rice (4% Broken) HTG HTG $1.10 $1.70 Wheat Flour Rice (4% Broken) HTG HTG $0.79 $0.98 Central America and Caribbean

11 Port-au-Prince Wheat Flour Faizabad Rice (Low Grade) Haiti HTG Afghanistan AFN $0.79 $0.83 Choluteca Dry Beans (Red) (W) Wheat Flour (Low Honduras HNL AFN $1.44 $0.45 (W) HNL AFN $0.41 $0.43 Comayagua Dry Beans (Red) (W) Hirat Diesel Honduras HNL Afghanistan AFN $1.24 $ Central America and Caribbean (W) HNL AFN $0.40 $1.14 Siguatepeque Dry Beans (Red) (W) Rice (Low Grade) Honduras HNL AFN $1.32 $0.44 (W) Wheat Flour (Low HNL AFN $0.39 $0.45 Tegucigalpa Dry Beans (Red) Honduras HNL AFN $1.59 $0.32 Jalalabad Rice (Low Grade) HNL Afghanistan AFN Rice (4% Broken) $0.44 $0.51 Wheat Flour (Low HNL AFN $0.93 $0.39 Mexico City Dry Beans (Black) (W) Mexico MXN AFN $0.88 $0.38 Dry Beans (Red) (W) Kabul Diesel MXN Afghanistan AFN $1.38 $0.73 Eggs (Fresh, White) (W) MXN AFN 8 $1.36 $1.38 (W) Rice (Low Grade) MXN AFN $0.31 $0.85 Refined sugar (W) Wheat Flour (Low MXN AFN $ $0.39 (W) MXN AFN 2 $1.27 $0.35 Rice (10% Broken) (W) Kandahar Rice (Low Grade) MXN Afghanistan AFN $0.87 $0.38 Central Asia

12 Kandahar Wheat Flour (Low Quality) Lahore Rice (Long Grain, IRRI-6) Afghanistan AFN Pakistan PKR $0.39 $0.64 Wheat Flour AFN PKR $0.42 $0.37 Maimana Rice (Low Grade) Afghanistan AFN PKR $0.69 $ Wheat Flour (Low Quality) Multan Rice (Long Grain, Basmati) AFN Pakistan PKR $0.46 $0.69 Rice (Long Grain, IRRI-6) AFN PKR $0.40 $0.37 Mazar-e-Sharif Diesel Wheat Flour Afghanistan AFN PKR $0.73 $0.35 AFN PKR $1.35 $0.31 Rice (Low Grade) Peshawar Rice (Long Grain, Basmati) AFN Pakistan PKR $0.62 $0.68 Central Asia Wheat Flour (Low Quality) Rice (Long Grain, IRRI-6) AFN PKR $0.39 $0.42 Central Asia Wheat Flour AFN PKR $0.37 $0.37 Nili Rice (Low Grade) Afghanistan AFN PKR $1.04 $0.33 Wheat Flour (Low Quality) Quetta Rice (Long Grain, IRRI-6) AFN Pakistan PKR $0.59 $0.47 Wheat Flour AFN PKR $ $0.41 Karachi Rice (Long Grain, Basmati) National Potatoes Pakistan PKR Average TJS $0.72 Tajikistan $0.32 Rice (Long Grain, IRRI-6) Wheat Flour (First Grade) PKR TJS $ $0.54 Wheat Flour PKR $0.40 PKR $

13 Addis Ababa (W) Mekele Mixed Teff Ethiopia ETB Ethiopia ETB $0.21 $0.54 (W) Sorghum (Yellow) (W) ETB ETB $0.49 $0.27 Mixed Teff (W) ETB ETB $0.71 $0.45 Bahir Dar (W) Nekemte (W) Ethiopia ETB Ethiopia ETB $0.20 $ Mixed Teff Sodo ETB Ethiopia ETB 5.00 $0.60 $ Bure (W) Ethiopia ETB ETB $0.18 $0.54 (W) Yabelo East Africa ETB Ethiopia ETB 1 $0.40 $0.52 Dire Dawa Eldoret Dry Beans (Rosecoco) (W) Ethiopia ETB Kenya KES $0.35 $0.79 Sorghum (Yellow) (W) ETB KES $0.42 $0.30 (W) Kisumu Dry Beans (Rosecoco) (W) ETB Kenya KES $0.53 $0.91 Mixed Teff (W) ETB KES $0.70 $0.37 Gode Sorghum (Red) (W) Ethiopia ETB KES 4 $0.34 $0.42 Sorghum (Yellow) Mombasa Dry Beans (Rosecoco) (W) ETB Kenya KES $0.69 $0.98 Jijiga (W) Ethiopia ETB KES $0.52 $0.37 Sorghum (Yellow) Sorghum (Red) (W) ETB KES $0.49 $0.42 Nairobi Dry Beans (Rosecoco) (W) ETB Kenya KES $0.54 $0.87 Mekele (W) (W) Ethiopia ETB KES $0.22 $0.35 East Africa

14 Nairobi Sorghum (Red) (W) Burao Sorghum (Red) Kenya KES Somalia SLS $0.43 $0.41 Baidoa Diesel Dhusamareb Diesel Somalia SOS Somalia SOS $0.93 $0.89 Gasoline Gasoline SOS SOS $0.98 $0.98 SOS SOS $0.37 $ Sorghum (Red) SOS SOS $1.13 $0.62 Rice (Parboiled) El Dhere Cowpeas (Red) SOS Somalia SOS 1125 $0.62 $ Sorghum (Red) Galkayo Cowpeas (Red) SOS Somalia SOS $0.24 $1.07 Beled Hawa Sorghum (Red) Rice (Parboiled) Somalia SOS SOS 1600 $0.49 $ East Africa Beled Weyn Sorghum (Red) Sorghum (Red) Somalia SOS SOS 800 $0.27 $0.36 East Africa Bossaso Rice (Parboiled) Garowe Rice (Parboiled) Somalia SOS Somalia SOS 1500 $0.62 $ Buale Cowpeas (Red) Hargeisa Rice (Parboiled) Somalia SOS Somalia SLS $1.33 $0.69 Lugh SOS Somalia SOS 1300 $0.37 $ Burao Diesel Sorghum (Red) Somalia SLS SOS 1000 $0.83 $0.44 Gasoline Merka Cowpeas (Red) SLS Somalia SOS 2350 $0.96 $ Mogadishu Cowpeas (Red) SLS Somalia SOS 1860 $0.55 $0.83 Diesel SLS SOS 1600 $1.66 $0.71 Rice (Parboiled) Gasoline SLS SOS 2100 $0.69 $

15 Mogadishu Juba Wheat Flour Somalia SOS South Sudan SSP $0.47 $6.53 Malakal Sorghum (White) SOS South Sudan SSP $1.06 $ Rice (Parboiled) Wheat Flour SOS SSP $0.54 $7.18 Sorghum (Red) Wau Groundnuts (Shelled) SOS South Sudan SSP $0.41 $ Qorioley Diesel Sorghum (White) Somalia SOS SSP $0.98 $2.53 Gasoline Wheat Flour SOS SSP $1.11 $ Ad-Damazin Millet SOS Sudan SDG $0.33 $0.98 Sorghum (Feterita) SOS SDG 2.91 $1.07 $ East Africa Rice (Parboiled) SOS SDG 6.67 $0.67 $1.12 East Africa Sorghum (Red) Al Qadarif Millet SOS Sudan SDG 4.46 $0.28 $ Togwajale Sorghum (White) Sorghum (Feterita) Somalia SLS SDG 2.44 $0.43 $ Aweil Groundnuts (Shelled) South Sudan SSP SDG 7.17 $4.84 $ Dongola Millet SSP Sudan SDG 6.60 $1.77 $ Sorghum (White) Sorghum (Feterita) SSP SDG 4.20 $2.70 $0.71 Bor Sorghum (White) South Sudan SSP SDG 5.80 $2.83 $0.98 Juba El Fasher Millet South Sudan SSP Sudan SDG 5.05 $1.66 $0.85 Sorghum (White) Sorghum (Feterita) SSP SDG 4.48 $2.00 $

16 East Africa El Fasher Arusha Dry Beans (Mixed) (W) Sudan SDG Tanzania, United TZS $0.98 Republic of $0.86 El Obeid Millet (W) Sudan SDG TZS $0.81 $0.26 Sorghum (Feterita) Milled rice (W) SDG TZS $0.54 $0.88 Dar es Salaam Dry Beans (Mixed) (W) SDG Tanzania, United TZS $0.98 Republic of $0.94 Geneina Millet (W) Sudan SDG TZS $0.54 $0.26 Sorghum (Feterita) Milled rice (W) SDG TZS $0.46 $0.89 Kadugli Millet Dodoma Dry Beans (Mixed) (W) Sudan SDG Tanzania, United TZS $0.84 Republic of $0.85 Sorghum (Feterita) (W) SDG TZS $0.56 $0.29 Milled rice (W) SDG TZS $0.67 $0.90 East Africa Nyala Millet Iringa (W) Sudan SDG Tanzania, United TZS $0.79 Republic of $0.19 Sorghum (Feterita) Milled rice (W) SDG TZS 165 $0.45 $0.83 Kigoma Dry Beans (Mixed) (W) SDG Tanzania, United TZS $1.01 Republic of $0.79 Om Durman Millet (W) Sudan SDG TZS $1.18 $0.22 Sorghum (Feterita) Milled rice (W) SDG TZS $0.67 $0.76 Mbeya Dry Beans (Mixed) (W) SDG Tanzania, United TZS $1.01 Republic of $0.61 Port Sudan Millet (W) Sudan SDG TZS $0.84 $0.22 Sorghum (Feterita) Milled rice (W) SDG TZS $0.51 $

17 Mtwara Soroti Millet (Finger) Tanzania, United Republic of TZS Uganda UGX 160 $0.22 $ Mwanza Milled rice Aden Wheat Flour Tanzania, United Republic of TZS Yemen YER 25 $0.80 $ Songea Dry Beans (Mixed) Al Hudaydah Wheat Flour Tanzania, United TZS Yemen YER Republic of $ $0.85 Amran Wheat Flour TZS Yemen YER $0.17 $ Tanga Milled rice Hajja Wheat Flour Tanzania, United TZS Yemen YER 18 Republic of $0.81 $ Arua Cassava Chips Sa'ada Wheat Flour Uganda UGX Yemen YER $0.29 $ Gulu Dry Beans (K124/Nabe 4) Sana'a Wheat Flour Uganda UGX Yemen YER $1.07 $0.81 Kampala Uganda Cooking bananas UGX $ East Africa Dry Beans (Mixed) USD 1.14 $ East Africa UGX $0.49 Sorghum (Red) USD $0.19 Lira Dry Beans (K124/Nabe 4) Uganda UGX $1.02 Masindi Uganda Mbarara Uganda Dry Beans (Mixed) USD 1.01 $1.01 USD 0.25 $0.25 Sorghum (Red) USD 0.34 $0.34 Cooking bananas UGX $ Mbarara Dry Beans (K124/Nabe 4) Uganda UGX $

18 Karonga Cassava Salima Milled rice Malawi MWK Malawi MWK $0.39 $0.93 Chókwe Cowpeas (Mixed) MWK Mozambique MZN $0.19 $1.02 Milled rice MWK MZN $0.99 $0.34 Lilongwe Cassava Rice (5% Broken) Malawi MWK MZN 3 $0.35 $0.85 Gorongosa Cowpeas (Mixed) MWK Mozambique MZN $0.37 $0.93 Milled rice MWK MZN $1.04 $0.18 Lunzu Cassava Maputo Cowpeas (Mixed) Malawi MWK Mozambique MZN $0.29 $0.61 Diesel MWK MZN $0.28 $1.04 Southern Africa Milled rice Maize Meal MWK MZN 3 0 $0.92 $0.85 Mitundu Southern Africa 7 11 Malawi MWK MZN $0.19 $0.36 Milled rice MWK MZN $1.04 $1.52 Mzuzu Cassava Rice (5% Broken) Malawi MWK MZN $0.37 $0.72 Maxixe Cowpeas (Mixed) MWK Mozambique MZN $0.28 $ Milled rice MWK MZN $1.39 $0.29 Nsanje Rice (5% Broken) Malawi MWK MZN $0.23 $ Salima Cassava Nampula Cowpeas (Mixed) Malawi MWK Mozambique MZN $0.23 $0.71 Diesel MWK MZN $0.25 $

19 Nampula Lusaka Mozambique MZN Zambia ZMW $0.26 $0.28 Roller Maize Meal MZN ZMW $1.13 $0.27 Rice (5% Broken) Mansa MZN Zambia ZMW $0.71 $0.18 Tete Cowpeas (Mixed) Roller Maize Meal Mozambique MZN ZMW $0.78 $ Mongu Southern Africa MZN Zambia ZMW 1.77 $0.27 $0.24 Rice (5% Broken) Roller Maize Meal MZN ZMW 2.23 $0.99 $0.31 Chipata Solwezi Zambia ZMW Zambia ZMW 1.67 $0.19 $0.23 Roller Maize Meal Roller Maize Meal ZMW ZMW 2.05 $ $0.28 Choma Bulawayo Zambia ZMW Zimbabwe USD 0.51 Roller Maize Meal $0.15 $0.51 Roller Maize Meal ZMW USD 0.70 $0.26 $0.70 Kabwe Gwanda Zambia ZMW Zimbabwe USD 0.57 $0.21 $0.57 Roller Maize Meal Roller Maize Meal ZMW USD 0.70 $0.24 $0.70 Kasama Harare Diesel Zambia ZMW Zimbabwe USD 1.37 $0.21 $1.37 Roller Maize Meal Gasoline ZMW USD 1.44 $0.28 $1.44 Kitwe Zambia ZMW USD 0.34 $0.26 $0.34 Roller Maize Meal Roller Maize Meal ZMW USD 0.60 $0.28 $0.60 Lusaka Diesel Masvingo Zambia ZMW Zimbabwe USD 0.40 $1.05 $0.40 Southern Africa

20 Masvingo Roller Maize Meal Bobo Dioulasso Zimbabwe USD Burkina Faso XOF $0.60 $0.25 Millet (Pearl) 19 1 XOF $0.33 Sorghum (White) XOF $0.27 Djibo Burkina Faso XOF $0.30 Millet (Pearl) XOF $0.32 Sorghum (White) XOF $ Koudougou Burkina Faso XOF $0.26 Millet (Pearl) XOF $0.33 Southern Africa West Africa Ouagadougou Sorghum (White) XOF $0.30 Gasoline Burkina Faso XOF $1.16 XOF $0.24 Millet (Pearl) XOF $ XOF 95 $1.62 Sorghum (White) XOF 19 $0.32 Whole milk powder XOF 550 $ Pouytenga Burkina Faso XOF $0.25 Millet (Pearl) XOF 21 $

21 Pouytenga Sorghum (White) N'Djamena Sorghum (Red) Burkina Faso XOF Chad XAF $0.26 $0.32 Solenzo Sarh Millet (Pearl) Burkina Faso XOF Chad XAF $0.19 $ Millet (Pearl) Sorghum (Red) XOF XAF $0.26 $0.34 Sorghum (White) Bamako Millet (Pearl) XOF Mali XOF $0.22 $0.38 Abeche Millet (Pearl) Rice (Gambiaca) Chad XAF XOF $0.37 $0.64 Sorghum (Red) Gao Millet (Pearl) XAF Mali XOF 20 $0.30 $ Bol Kayes Millet (Pearl) Chad XAF Mali XOF $0.37 $0.43 Mongo Millet (Pearl) Koulikoro Millet (Pearl) Chad XAF Mali XOF $0.45 $ West Africa Moundou Millet (Pearl) Mopti Millet (Pearl) Chad XAF Mali XOF 20 $0.41 $0.34 Sorghum (Red) Segou Millet (Pearl) XAF Mali XOF 17 $0.34 $0.29 West Africa Moussoro Rice (Gambiaca) Chad XAF XOF $0.43 $0.60 Millet (Pearl) Sikasso Millet (Pearl) XAF Mali XOF 20 $0.47 $ Rice (5% Broken) Timbuktu Local milled rice XAF Mali XOF $1.02 $0.49 N'Djamena Local milled rice Adel Bagrou Milled rice Chad XAF Mauritania MRO 22 $0.68 $ Refined sugar XAF MRO $0.41 $0.83 Millet (Pearl) XAF MRO 50 $0.51 $ Rice (5% Broken) Rice (100% Broken) XAF MRO 28 $0.82 $

22 Adel Bagrou Sorghum (White) Nouakchott Gasoline Mauritania MRO Mauritania MRO $ $1.41 MRO MRO $0.65 $0.91 Aoujeft Sorghum (White) Milled rice Mauritania MRO MRO $1.30 $0.78 MRO MRO $0.39 $ Boghé Milled rice Rice (100% Broken) Mauritania MRO MRO $0.45 $0.87 Refined sugar Sorghum (White) MRO MRO $0.64 $1.30 MRO MRO $1.12 $0.49 Rice (100% Broken) Agadez Millet (Pearl) MRO Niger XOF $0.65 $0.39 West Africa Sorghum (White) MRO XOF 90 $0.65 $1.53 Rice (5% Broken) MRO XOF 50 $0.41 $0.85 West Africa Magta-lahjar Milled rice Whole milk powder Mauritania MRO XOF $0.67 $6.38 Refined sugar Bakin Birji Millet (Pearl) MRO Niger XOF $0.65 $0.31 Diffa Millet (Pearl) MRO Niger XOF $1.62 $0.40 Rice (100% Broken) MRO XOF 95 $0.81 $1.62 Sorghum (White) Sorghum (Mixed) MRO XOF $0.89 $ Whole milk powder MRO XOF $0.49 $6.46 Nouakchott Gas cooking oil Gaya Mauritania MRO Niger XOF $1.25 $

23 Maradi Tillaberi Millet (Pearl) Niger XOF Niger XOF $0.31 $0.36 Millet (Pearl) Sorghum (Mixed) XOF XOF $0.30 $0.38 Dandume Local milled rice XOF Nigeria NGN $1.19 $ Sorghum (Mixed) Millet (Pearl) XOF NGN $0.27 $ Whole milk powder Sorghum (White) XOF NGN $5.27 $ Niamey Bread Giwa Niger XOF Nigeria NGN $0.55 $0.24 Diesel Sorghum (White) XOF NGN $0.92 $0.19 Gasoline Ibadan Bread XOF Nigeria NGN 25 $0.91 $ West Africa Gasoline XOF NGN $0.33 $0.68 West Africa Millet (Pearl) XOF NGN $0.41 $0.33 Refined palm oil XOF NGN $1.28 $ Rice (5% Broken) Sorghum (White) XOF NGN $0.68 $ Sorghum (Mixed) Kano Diesel XOF Nigeria NGN 16 $0.38 $0.81 Whole milk powder Gasoline XOF NGN 12 $6.78 $0.61 Ouallam Millet (Pearl) Groundnuts (In Shell) Niger XOF NGN $0.42 $1.07 Tahoua Millet (Pearl) Niger XOF NGN $0.39 $ Sorghum (Mixed) Kano Millet (Pearl) XOF Nigeria NGN $0.33 $

24 Kano Nigeria Sorghum (White) NGN MAIZE $0.23 Gulf of Mexico Maize Kaura Namoda United States (Yellow No. 2) Nigeria NGN USD 0.17 $0.27 $ Sorghum (White) Randfontein Maize NGN South Africa (Yellow) $0.22 (SAFEX) ZAR Lagos Yams $0.20 Nigeria NGN Maize $0.60 (White) Saminaka ZAR Nigeria NGN $0.23 $0.24 Up River Maize Sorghum (White) Argentina ARS NGN $0.17 $0.27 Dakar Millet (Pearl) RICE Senegal XOF Bangkok Rice $0.38 Thailand (100% B) Rice (100% Broken) THB XOF $0.39 $0.46 Rice West Africa Kaolak Millet (Pearl) (A1 Super) Senegal XOF THB $0.28 $0.33 Rice (100% Broken) Hanoi Rice XOF Vietnam (5% broken) $0.46 VND 7,020 International Saint-Louis Millet (Pearl) $0.35 Senegal XOF $0.38 Rice (100% Broken) Gulf of Mexico SORGHUM Sorghum XOF United States (Yellow No. 2) $0.49 USD Tambacounda Millet (Pearl) $0.22 Senegal XOF $0.35 SOYBEANS Ziguichor Gulf of Mexico Soybeans Senegal XOF United States USD $0.43 $0.24 Rice (100% Broken) XOF 29 $ Caribbean SUGAR Sugar (Raw) (Average) USD $

25 WHEAT Aktau Port Milling Wheat Kazakhstan KZT $ Black Sea Milling Wheat (Average) USD 0.19 $ Eastern States Wheat Australia (ASW) (standard) AUD USD 0.24 Gulf of Mexico United States Wheat No. 2, Hard Red Winter USD 0.23 $0.23 Wheat No. 2, Soft Red Winter USD 0.20 $ Randfontein South Africa ZAR 3.82 (SAFEX) $ Rouën Wheat International France (Grade 1) EUR 0.17 $0.19 St. Lawrence Wheat Canada Up River Argentina (CWRS) CAD 0.29 $0.24 Wheat (Trigo Pan) ARS 2.04 $ CRUDE OIL West Texas Crude Oil* Intermediate USD United States $ Brent Crude Oil* Northern Sea USD $ Dubai Crude Oil* Persian Gulf USD *reported in $/bbl $

26 PRICE WATCH ANNEX 2 May 2015 Prices June 30, 2015 Figure 3. Millet prices in West Africa ( ) 0.75 Figure 4. Sorghum prices in West Africa ( ) Wast Africa Moundou, Chad Segou, Mali Kaolak, Senegal Figure 5. Maize prices in West Africa ( ) Kano, Nigeria(W) Bol, Chad Bobo Dioulasso, Burkina Faso Solenzo, Burkina Faso Maradi, Niger Malanville, Benin Tamale, Ghana Figure 6. Rice prices in West Africa ( ) Sources of prices in West Africa: Information System on agricultural markets (SIMA) Niger, Agricultural Market Observatory (OMA) Mali, Burkina Faso SONAGESS, Information System market (SIM) in Senegal and FEWS NET Maradi, Niger Moundou, Chad Bobo Dioulasso, Burkina Faso Nouakchott, Mauritania* Dakar, Senegal* * imported rice Kano, Nigeria Segou, Mali Bamako, Mali Monrovia, Liberia* Figure 7. Dry bean prices in East Africa ( ) Figure 8. Sorghum prices in East Africa ( ) East Africa Arusha, Tanzania (W) Eldoret, Kenya (W) Kigali City, Kimironko, Rwanda Masindi, Uganda (W) Gadaref, Sudan Baidoa, Somalia Juba, South Sudan Kampala, Uganda (W) Dire Dawa, Ethiopia (W) (FEWS NET) monitors trends in staple food prices in countries vulnerable to foodd insecurity. The Price Watch Annex 2 provides prices trends for key markets and staple foods monitored across FEWS NET countries and regions. The commodities with a reference (W) are wholesale prices. Otherwise, all reported prices are retail. FEWS NET fewsnetmt@fews.net FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The content of this report does not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government.