PRICE WATCH March 2016 Prices April 29, 2016

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1 PRICE WATCH March 2016 Prices April 29, 2016 KEY MESSAGES In West Africa, market availability was good in March with supplies from above-average 2015/16 regional harvests, and international rice and wheat imports. Markets remained disrupted throughout the Lake Chad Basin and in parts of Northern Mali. The recent depreciation of the Naira has led to price increases across Nigeria (Page 3). In, maize prices followed seasonal trends in surplus-producing Uganda and Tanzania. Harvests are estimated to be well below average in Ethiopia, but prices have remained stable with the availability of food through humanitarian assistance programs underway. The South Sudanese Pound was allowed to float in December, leading to a persistent depreciation of the local currency and reducing purchasing power. Markets remain disrupted by insecurity in South Sudan and Yemen (Page 4). In Southern Africa, although maize supplies remained well below-average, supplies from green harvests improved availability and generally eased pressure on prices, except in Mozambique where maize prices continued to increase sharply. Maize prices are well above-average levels across the region (Page 5). In Central America, maize and bean supplies were stable with supplies from the Postrera and Apante harvests. Maize prices were generally stable, except in Nicaragua, while beans prices were mixed. Locally-produced bean and maize availability remained below-average in Haiti, while imported commodity prices and availability remained stable (Page 6). In Central Asia, wheat availability remained adequate region-wide. Prices are below their respective 2015 levels in surplus-producing areas (Page 7). International staple food markets remain well supplied. Maize, wheat, rice, and soybean prices were stable in March and below their respective 2015 levels (Figures 2 and 3). Crude oil prices increased but remained well belowaverage (Page 2). Figure 1. FEWS NET regional price indices and FAO Food Price Index, January 2010 March 2016 Sources: FAO and FEWS NET. (FEWS NET) monitors trends in staple food prices in countries at risk of food insecurity. The Price Watch provides an update on market and price trends in selected reference markets. Specific trends for key reference markets and commodities are available in the Price Watch Annexes 1 and 2. FEWS NET gratefully acknowledges partner organizations, ministries of agriculture, national market information systems, the Regional Agricultural Intelligence Network, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the World Food Programme (WFP), and others for their assistance in providing price data. FEWS NET fewsnetmt@fews.net FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The content of this report does not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government

2 PRICE WATCH April 2016 situation INTERNATIONAL MARKETS International rice prices were stable in March and below 2015 levels (InterRice and IGC) (Figure 2). Conditions varied in South Asia, a major rice growing and exporting region of the world. Poor rainfall and growing conditions attributed to El Niño were reported in Thailand and India (AMIS). Global supplies remain near average levels (Figure 3) (IGC). International maize prices were stable with favorable conditions in South America as the season continued. Global prices remained below 2015 levels reflecting record global supply (AMIS and FAO). International wheat prices remained stable at low levels due continued pressure from abundant global supplies and low export demand. Global supplies remain above average and prices were still well below (by nearly 20 percent) their respective 2015 levels (AMIS and FAO). International soybean prices remained stable and below 2015 levels. Global supplies are at an all-time record high with generally favorable conditions for the ongoing season in the southern hemisphere (AMIS). Source: Authors' calculations based on World Bank 2015 and USDA International crude oil prices increased in March after reaching the lowest level in over ten years in February. Prices remained, on average, well below average (U.S. Energy Information Administration and World Bank). Outlook Figure 2. Food commodity prices in selected international markets, January 2010 March 2016 Sources: FAO and FEWS NET. Figure 3. Global Market Indicators, 2015/16 compared to average Global rice production projections for 2015/16 are slightly below 2014/15 record levels due to reduced production forecast in Asia as a result of the El Niño climate effects (IGC). World demand is projected to exceed production. Global stocks may decline for the first time since 2005 and fall below average (IGC and InterRice). Global maize production is projected to be slightly below last year s record crop (USDA FAS and IGC). Global demand for 2015/16 is projected to be on par with 2014/15 levels, indicating that stocks will remain well above-average (AMIS). Global wheat production projections for 2015/16 are expected to exceed the 2014/15 record level, leading to a 13-year high stock level ending in 2016 (USDA FAS and AMIS). Prices are expected to remain below-average (USDA FAS). Global soybean 2015/16 production forecasts are on par with the 2014/15 record levels and stock levels are projected to be similar to last year s record. Global demand may grow over 2015/16 based on signs of expanding demand in Asia and South America (AMIS). International crude oil prices are expected to stabilize and remain well below respective 2015 levels, on average, for 2016 (U.S. Energy Information Administration and World Bank). However, fuel prices may increase in some importing countries due to the depreciation of the local currency vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar and local fuel price policies Staple food price trends across the countries monitored by FEWS NET will vary considerably in the coming months in response to local and regional market conditions; international market trends will play a more limited role in most countries (Figure 2). Fuel price trends in FEWS NET countries will depend on both international market conditions, the evolution of local exchange rates in relation to the U.S. Dollar, and the design and implementation of local fuel import and price policies. Famine Early Warning Systems Network 2

3 PRICE WATCH April 2016 Situation WEST AFRICA Markets are regularly and adequately supplied with staple foods in the region (Figure 4). However, in the Greater Lake Chad area, supplies are low due to the ongoing conflict and subsequent trade disruptions. Cereal demand on markets in below-average to average as many rural households have substantial remaining stocks. But, in Chad, the lower demand has more to do with weak purchasing power and unfavorable macroeconomic conditions (falling cotton and oil prices). Prices generally followed their seasonal trends and were stable or decreasing between February and March. However, some prices increased throughout the region including rice in Mauritania, maize in Burkina Faso, sorghum and maize respectively in Bongor and Bol in Chad, and millet and maize in Diffa (Niger). In Nigeria, prices of all key food items increased in March, exceeding their respective 2015 and average levels due to the impacts of the generally unfavorable macroeconomic context on markets (Figure 5). The Nigerian Naira (NGN) depreciated rapidly during the first months of 2016 and the gap between the official and parallel market exchange rates widened. Nigeria is import-dependent for a number of products (rice, wheat, cowpeas, and livestock) and the current situation has greatly limited the purchasing power of Nigerian importers. Market activities in Ebola-affected Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea have by and large recovered from impediments and are normal, despite a recent minor resurgence of the epidemic. Most households are no longer relying on coping strategies and humanitarian assistance for their food consumption. Prices of staple foods, like rice and cassava, are generally stable. Livestock in the Sahel are generally in good conditions. Demand has dropped in Chad due to the insecurity in Nigeria and Libya (its main exporting markets), and in Burkina Faso and Niger due to the falling Nigerian Naira. Outlook Figure 4. West Africa Regional cereal production ( 000 MT) Source: Authors calculations based on CILSS 2015 data. Figure 5. Rice prices in Nigeria and international markets () Source: Authors calculations based on ONASA, SIMA Niger, SONAGESS, and WFP data. Market supplies will remain stable and satisfactory, though stocks will progressively deplete and demand will increase as the learn season approaches. There will be seasonal price increases across most of the region, but those will be limited by the presence of various governmental subsidies and/or price stabilization measures. Livestock demand during Ramadan and for Tabaski is expected to contribute to increased prices for goats, sheep, and cattle. The extent to which demand increases for the holidays will depend on the macroeconomic context in Nigeria, the region s largest consumption market. In Nigeria, the price of food items will likely increase beyond the normal levels due to continuing unfavorable macroeconomic situations and persistent fuel scarcity in the country. The prices will still be relatively higher in the Northeast where market functioning is still limited and the transaction cost remain high due to insecurity situation. FEWS NET will continue to monitor the evolution of the situation and its impacts. Famine Early Warning Systems Network 3

4 PRICE WATCH April 2016 Situation EAST AFRICA Markets are generally well supplied in surplus-producing Uganda and Tanzania. Maize, sorghum, and cooking banana prices increased seasonally in Uganda between February and March in bimodal areas. In Tanzania, prices declined seasonally in the southern surplus-producing highland areas. Exportable surpluses of maize and dry beans continued supplying deficit neighboring countries in. The economy in South Sudan has been heavily affected by the civil strife and reduced state revenues attributed to the global decline in oil prices. The official exchange rate was allowed to float as of mid-december 2015, narrowing the gap between the official and parallel market exchange rates, thereby putting additional upward pressure on the cost of imported food and fuel. Staple food prices increased sharply in October through March in Greater Equatoria due to below-average local harvests coupled with outbursts of conflict along key marketing corridors, and higher priced imports (Figure 5). In areas directly affected by conflict, staple food markets remain very thin and prices volatile. In Kenya, staple food prices were stable between February and March as the October-to-February long rains harvests in the main-producing North Rift progressed. Regional imports of rice, maize, and dry beans reinforced market supplies and price trends. Figure 6. Staple food prices in South Sudan and Uganda () Source: FEWS NET calculations based on MIS/Farmgain Africa Ltd & Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBoS), Uganda, WFP South Sudan, UN, Oanda. Figure 7. Maize prices in Amahara and Tigray Regions of Ethiopia (ETB/100 kg) Source: FEWS NET calculations based on EGTE and WFP Ethiopia The availability of carryover stocks from the well above-average 2014/15 season in Sudan has helped offset some of the effects of below average production during the 2015/16 season between November and March. Changes in price trends in March are attributed to changing food policies. Sorghum prices in the surplus-producing areas of Qadarif declined in March with the closure of the border with South Sudan. Wheat prices in Dongola increased in response to an increase in the Strategic Reserve Corporation s purchase price. In Ethiopia, the 2015 Belg and Meher harvests were estimated to be below average. This widened the national consumption gap which is typically filled through imports of wheat and wheat flour (USDA FAS). Although staple food prices declined in many areas following the recent Meher harvests, they did not decline as quickly as they normally do and have remained stable since November in many areas (Figure 6). The above average January-to-February (Deyr) harvest ended in Somalia. Sorghum prices in the Baidoa (a main production area) were stable in March. International imports of wheat and rice continue to reinforce domestic food supplies. The crisis in Yemen continues to affect import flows and security along key national marketing corridors, resulting in highly variable staple food availability and prices. Prices were stable in March due to improved availability of imported food and fuel. Domestic harvests also contributed to domestic supply (although local production volumes are modest). Famine Early Warning Systems Network 4

5 PRICE WATCH April 2016 Situation SOUTHERN AFRICA In Southern Africa, maize supplies are significantly tighter than usual, especially in Malawi and Mozambique, as a result of maize shortages throughout the region this year (Figure 8). Availability of green harvests improved staple food availability slightly and eased pressure on prices in some parts of the region, but prices remained well-above average and 2015 levels. Figure 8. Southern Africa maize balance estimates ( 000 MT) Maize prices increased significantly again last month in Mozambique, but were generally stable in Malawi, Zambia, South Africa, and Zimbabwe. Continued price increases in Mozambique reflect the remaining maize deficits. With a large national deficit after importing small amounts over the 2015/16 marketing year, maize supplies in Mozambique were still tight, exerting pressure on prices and causing households to rely on imported rice as an alternative, resulting in atypical price increases as well. After months of sharp price increases since January (when subsidized maize sales and Strategic Grain Reserve stocks became erratic several months early) maize prices finally stabilized or began decreasing last month in Malawi with availability of green harvests. Zimbabwe continued to import from Zambia, with total maize imports for the 2015/16 marketing year now exceeding the domestic supply gap estimated at the start of the marketing year. South Africa increased white maize exports to the region, with the greatest volumes going to Zimbabwe. Zambia s export levels decreased due to declining stocks and strict export controls. Sources: FEWS NET calculations with data from SADC, WRSI, and government ministries. Figure 9. White maize prices in Southern Africa () Sources: Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation, and Water Development of Malawi, Ministry of Industry, Trade and Marketing (MITM) of Tanzania, Ministry of Agriculture of Mozambique, Central Statistics Office of Zambia, SAFEX, WFP and FEWS NET. Maize prices remained significantly above respective five-year average and 2015 levels across the region, with the highest prices in Mozambique and the lowest in Zambia (in USD terms) (Figure 9). Maize price levels were especially high in Malawi and Mozambique, where prices reached levels more than double average and 2015 levels. Outlook The 2016 harvest is forecast to be below-average and delayed by one month and is expected to start between the end of April and May. With the start of the harvests in April and May, maize supplies in the region will improve and prices are expected to start or continue decreasing slightly in South Africa, Zambia, and Malawi, and may stabilize or decline marginally in Mozambique and Zimbabwe. However, the below-average 2016 harvests and low carry-over stocks at the end of the 2015/16 marketing year will cause many countries to face shortages over the 2016/17 marketing year that are greater than the current shortages. As a result, prices across the region are not expected to decline as much as they typically do during the harvest and post-harvest period. This includes Zambia and South Africa, which will limit their capacity to export to deficit countries. Malawi will have no carry-over stocks going into the 2016/17 marketing year, causing concern over how high their prices may reach. Maize prices are likely to remain well above five-year average levels across the region during the harvest and postharvest period. Price increases are expected to be especially high in Malawi and Mozambique, given the large local deficits, depletion of public stocks, limited imports, and expected below-average 2016 harvest. Famine Early Warning Systems Network 5

6 PRICE WATCH April 2016 Situation CENTRAL AMERICA AND CARIBBEAN In Central America, bean and maize availability was stable in March with supplies from the Postrera and Apante harvests (both mainly beans), as well as imports. Availability and prices of imported rice and wheat flour remained stable in Haiti, while locally-produced black bean and maize supplies were below-average following recent droughts. As discussed in the Central America Regional Supply and Market Outlook, the Postrera harvest ended in January with estimated below-average bean production in El Salvador and Nicaragua but average bean harvest in Honduras and Guatemala. The Apante harvest in Nicaragua and Honduras, which contributes a significant amount of red bean supplies in the region, is at the end of the season and is estimated to be well below-average in Nicaragua, but average in Honduras. As a result, although bean prices typically decrease and reach their lowest levels in Nicaragua in March, prices atypically increased last month in Nicaragua, causing price increases in Honduras and El Salvador, importers of beans from Nicaragua, as well. With sufficient bean supplies, prices in Guatemala remained stable. Bean prices remain below or similar to five-year average levels, except in Nicaragua and Guatemala where they are above five-year average levels. White maize prices were generally stable across the region as imports from the US and Mexico helped to fill supply gaps and moderate prices, except in Nicaragua where prices increased with below-average supplies. Maize prices generally remained above-average levels in El Salvador, Honduras and Nicaragua, but near average levels in Guatemala and Mexico (Figure 10). In Haiti, staple food availability was adequate. Black bean prices declined in many areas in March due to increased availability on of other legumes (pigeon peas), following recent harvests. Maize prices increased due to deficits in production during the first and second season. Prices of locally produced maize, beans, and sorghum, remained well above respective 2015 and five-year average levels. Despite the recent depreciation of the HTG, rice imports reached record high levels in 2015, and prices have generally remained stable (Figure 11). Maize flour prices followed imported rice and wheat trends and were stable, except in Cap Haitien, where prices increased in March. Outlook Figure 10. White maize prices in Central America () Sources of prices in Central America and Caribbean: Coordination nationale de la sécurité alimentaire (CNSA) and FEWS NET, MAL, Dirección General de Economía Agropecuaria (DGECA), Sistema de Información de Mercados Productos Agrícolas de Honduras (SIMPAH), Secretaria de Economia de Mexico, and Ministerio de Agricultura, Ganaderia y Alimentacion de Guatemala (MAGA. Figure 11. Haiti Rice import volumes and prices, Source: FEWS NET calculations based on USDA/GATS, FEWSNET/CNSA, and Oanda In Central America, red and black bean prices are expected to seasonally gradually increase until the Primera harvest begins in August. The Apante harvest losses in Nicaragua could cause atypical bean price increases in Nicaragua and in El Salvador and Honduras as a result of reduced source of supplies. Red bean prices are expected to be generally aboveaverage levels, especially in Nicaragua, but below atypically high 2014 levels. Prices of white maize are expected to seasonally increase and remain above-average in Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador, but remain similar or below-average levels in Guatemala until the 2016 Primera harvest in August. The 2016 Primera maize harvest in August is forecast to be belowaverage to average but will depend on the effects of El Nino weather patterns and hurricane season. In Haiti, prices of locally-produced black bean and maize are expected to increase due to increased demand for bean seeds for the spring season. Prices of imported rice and wheat flour will limit the extent to which local maize flour grain and prices increase. FEWS NET will monitor closely the extent to which the recent depreciation of the Haitian Gourde vis-à-vis the USD affects rice and wheat import volumes and prices. Famine Early Warning Systems Network 6

7 PRICE WATCH April 2016 Situation CENTRAL ASIA Regional availability and price trends varied considerably across Central Asia with the progression of the 2015/16 marketing year in March (Table 1). However, as detailed in the Central Asia Regional Wheat Supply and Market Outlook, regional deficits are expected to be filled through intra-regional trade. Wheat grain export prices in Kazakhstan, the region s largest exporter, were stable between February and March, after declining consistently since December (Figure 12). This follows the recent strengthening of the Kazakh Tenge (KZT) against the USD (Figure 13). Prices are now 40 percent below their respective 2015 and five-year average levels. Wheat flour prices in major markets of Tajikistan have been stable since January, at record-high levels. Supplies from recent harvests have improved availability at local markets, but have not been sufficient to offset the effects of recent the sharp depreciation of the Somoni (TJS). In Pakistan, another regional wheat flour exporter, wheat grain and flour prices remained stable between February and March in most markets. Prices are generally stable in major markets compared the previous year and average price levels reflecting Source: Authors estimates based on Oanda.com data. Table 1. Regional wheat availability and price trends average wheat production coupled with higher than average carry-over stocks. Country Kazakhstan Status Exporter Local availability Average Price Trends Below-average In Afghanistan, wheat grain and flour prices were Pakistan Exporter Average Near-average stable between February and March. Similarly, prices Tajikistan Importer Average Record high were stable compared to their respective 2015 levels following average domestic wheat production and Afghanistan Importer Average Above-average steady imports from Pakistan and Kazakhstan. Recent Source: FEWS NET estimates. decreases in fuel prices have helped to maintain steady import levels from regional markets (Figure 13). Outlook Figure 12. Wheat grain prices in Central Asia () Source: WFP, VAM; APK Inform Agency, Kazakhstan. Figure 13. Regional exchange rates ( ) Regional availability and price trends are expected to continue varying across Central Asia. The 2015/16 wheat harvest in Kazakhstan was similar to average and six percent above the 2014/15 production (USDA/FAS). Exports of wheat during the current July to June 2015/16 marketing year are forecast at 6.2MMT, up 13 percent from the 2014/15 season (FAO/GEIWS). Ample availability and relatively lower export parity prices are expected to help contribute to stable regional supplies. Price trends in Tajikistan will depend on the extent to which low regional export prices are offset by the depreciation of the TJS. Average wheat production in 2015 (25.1 MMT) and above-average carryover stocks will contribute to stable grain prices in Pakistan and stable exports to neighboring Afghanistan (USDA/FAS). Average harvests are expected to start in April, further reinforcing stock levels at the national level (DAWN). In Afghanistan, prices may increase seasonally during the upcoming lean season (February to April). However, ample regional supplies at relatively low and stable prices are expected to contributed to similar trends in Afghanistan. FEWS NET will continue to monitor the AFN and any implications for reduced purchasing power for imported food and fuel. Famine Early Warning Systems Network 7

8 PRICE WATCH ANNEX 1 March 2016 Prices April 30, 2016 West Africa Bobo Dioulasso Maize (White) Pouytenga Maize (White) Burkina Faso XOF Burkina Faso XOF Millet (Pearl) $0.24 $0.29 Millet (Pearl) XOF XOF Sorghum (White) $0.33 $0.32 Sorghum (White) XOF XOF $0.27 $0.25 Djibo Maize (White) Solenzo Maize (White) Burkina Faso XOF Burkina Faso XOF Millet (Pearl) $0.30 $0.20 Millet (Pearl) XOF XOF Sorghum (White) $0.32 $0.23 Sorghum (White) XOF XOF $0.29 $0.19 Koudougou Maize (White) Abeche Millet (Pearl) Burkina Faso XOF Chad XAF 21 Millet (Pearl) $0.27 $0.35 XOF XAF 15 $0.32 $0.25 Sorghum (White) Bol Maize (White) XOF Chad XAF 26 $0.27 $0.44 Ouagadougou Gasoline Mongo Millet (Pearl) Burkina Faso XOF Chad XAF $1.15 $0.45 Maize (White) Moundou Millet (Pearl) XOF Chad XAF 24 Millet (Pearl) $0.26 $0.41 XOF XAF 16 $0.33 $0.27 Moussoro Maize (White) XOF Chad XAF Sorghum (White) $1.42 $0.47 Millet (Pearl) XOF XAF 30 $0.33 $0.51 Whole milk powder N'Djamena Local milled rice XOF Chad XAF $9.21 $ (FEWS NET) monitors trends in staple food prices in countries vulnerable to food insecurity. The Price Watch Annex 1 provides prices and price changes for key markets and staple foods monitored across FEWS NET countries and regions. The prices are final monthly average prices for March Commodities included in the Annex are the staples most often consumed by the poor in the indicated market. Additional commodities provided are important commodities consumed in the same areas or fuel prices that affect food prices. Final monthly average prices are used. The symbols ( ) depict the direction of price changes: the red upward-facing arrow denotes an increase of five percent or greater. The blue horizontal arrow denotes no change or changes that are smaller than 5 percent, and the green downward-facing arrow denotes price decreases that are five percent or greater. The three arrows respectively correspond to the percent change in prices this month compared to last month, last year, and the five-year average. The - symbol indicates that data are not available. The commodities with a reference (W) are wholesale prices. Otherwise, all reported prices are retail. West Africa FEWS NET fewsnetmt@fews.net FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The content of this report does not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government.

9 PRICE WATCH ANNEX April 30, 2016 N'Djamena Maize (White) Adel Bagrou Refined sugar Chad XAF Mauritania MRO $0.42 $0.68 Millet (Pearl) XAF MRO $0.49 $1.34 Rice (5% Broken) Rice (100% Broken) XAF MRO $0.85 $1.13 Sorghum (White) XAF MRO $0.35 $0.36 Sarh Millet (Pearl) Wheat Grain Chad XAF MRO $0.39 $0.53 Aoujeft Sorghum (White) XAF Mauritania MRO $0.29 $0.83 Bamako Millet (Pearl) Wheat Grain Mali XOF MRO $0.34 $0.36 Rice (Gambiaca) Boghé Milled rice XOF Mauritania MRO $0.63 $0.56 West Africa Gao Millet (Pearl) Refined sugar Mali XOF MRO 20 0 $0.34 $0.59 Kayes Millet (Pearl) Mali XOF MRO $0.42 $1.04 Koulikoro Millet (Pearl) Rice (100% Broken) Mali XOF MRO $0.30 $0.62 Mopti Millet (Pearl) Sorghum (White) Mali XOF MRO $0.34 $0.61 Segou Millet (Pearl) Wheat Grain Mali XOF MRO $0.25 $0.36 Rice (Gambiaca) Magta-lahjar Milled rice XOF Mauritania MRO $0.55 $0.77 Sikasso Millet (Pearl) Refined sugar Mali XOF MRO $0.34 $0.59 Timbuktu Local milled rice Mali XOF MRO $0.56 $1.49 Adel Bagrou Milled rice Rice (100% Broken) Mauritania MRO MRO $0.83 $0.92 West Africa

10 Magta-lahjar Sorghum (White) Gaya Maize (Mixed) Mauritania MRO Niger XOF $0.59 $0.34 Wheat Grain Maradi Maize (Mixed) MRO Niger XOF $0.39 $0.31 Nouakchott Maize (White) Millet (Pearl) Mauritania MRO XOF $0.74 $0.27 Milled rice MRO XOF $0.80 $1.06 Sorghum (Mixed) MRO XOF $1.34 $0.26 Rice (100% Broken) Whole milk powder MRO XOF $0.89 $5.07 Sorghum (White) Niamey Diesel MRO Niger XOF $0.89 $0.91 Wheat Grain Gasoline MRO XOF $0.30 $0.91 West Africa Agadez Millet (Pearl) Maize (Mixed) Niger XOF XOF $0.36 $0.33 West Africa Millet (Pearl) XOF XOF $1.44 $0.40 Rice (5% Broken) XOF XOF $0.85 $1.31 Whole milk powder Rice (5% Broken) XOF XOF $5.92 $0.68 Bakin Birji Cowpeas (Mixed) Sorghum (Mixed) Niger XOF XOF $0.52 $0.37 Millet (Pearl) Whole milk powder XOF XOF $0.22 $6.25 Diffa Cowpeas (Mixed) Ouallam Millet (Pearl) Niger XOF Niger XOF $0.48 $0.39 Millet (Pearl) Sabon Machi Cowpeas (Mixed) XOF Niger XOF $0.35 $0.51 Sorghum (Mixed) Tahoua Millet (Pearl) XOF Niger XOF $0.27 $0.40 3

11 Tahoua Sorghum (Mixed) Kano Gasoline Niger XOF Nigeria NGN $0.34 $0.49 Tillabéri Millet (Pearl) Groundnuts (Shelled) Niger XOF NGN $0.37 $1.03 Sorghum (Mixed) Maize (White) (W) XOF NGN $0.38 $0.37 Dandume Local milled rice Millet (Pearl) (W) Nigeria NGN NGN $0.76 $0.36 Millet (Pearl) Sorghum (White) (W) NGN NGN $0.39 $0.38 Sorghum (White) Kaura Namoda Maize (White) NGN Nigeria NGN $0.33 $0.38 Giwa Maize (White) Sorghum (White) Nigeria NGN NGN $0.38 $0.31 Sorghum (White) Lagos Yams NGN Nigeria NGN $0.28 $0.67 West Africa Ibadan Bread Maiadua Millet (Pearl) Nigeria NGN Nigeria XOF $1.52 $0.22 West Africa Diesel Sorghum (Mixed) NGN XOF $0.66 $0.22 Gasoline Saminaka Maize (White) NGN Nigeria NGN $0.56 $0.35 Maize (White) Sorghum (White) NGN NGN $0.44 $0.34 Refined palm oil Dakar Millet NGN Senegal XOF $1.90 $0.37 Sorghum (White) Rice (100% Broken) NGN XOF $0.44 $0.46 Ilela Millet (Pearl) Kaolak Millet Nigeria XOF Senegal XOF $0.25 $0.24 Sorghum (Mixed) Rice (100% Broken) XOF XOF $0.24 $0.45 Kano Diesel Saint-Louis Millet Nigeria NGN Senegal XOF $0.81 $0.37 4

12 Saint-Louis Rice (100% Broken) Bujumbura Cassava Flour Senegal XOF Burundi BIF $0.43 $0.61 Tambacounda Millet Cooking bananas Senegal XOF BIF $0.30 $0.37 Ziguichor Maize (Yellow) Dry Beans (Mixed) Senegal XOF BIF $0.42 $0.74 Rice (100% Broken) Maize (White) XOF BIF $0.48 $ Milled rice West Africa BIF $1.00 BIF $ Sweet potatoes BIF $0.29 Gitega Cassava Flour Burundi BIF $0.46 Cooking bananas BIF $0.22 Dry Beans (Mixed) BIF $0.72 Maize (White) BIF $0.37 Milled rice BIF $0.97 BIF $0.58 Sweet potatoes BIF $0.22 Kirundo Cassava Flour Burundi BIF $ Cooking bananas BIF $0.36 Dry Beans (Mixed) BIF $

13 Kirundo Maize (White) Ruyigi Cassava Flour Burundi BIF Burundi BIF $0.47 $0.42 Milled rice Cooking bananas BIF BIF $0.97 $0.23 Dry Beans (Mixed) BIF BIF $0.42 $0.64 Sweet potatoes Maize (White) BIF BIF $0.25 $0.33 Muyinga Cassava Flour Milled rice Burundi BIF BIF $0.53 $0.98 Cooking bananas BIF BIF $0.21 $0.37 Dry Beans (Mixed) Sweet potatoes BIF BIF $0.65 $0.26 Maize (White) Alisabieh Milled rice BIF Djibouti DJF $0.47 $0.68 Milled rice BIF DJF 10 $0.94 $0.57 Wheat Flour BIF DJF $0.56 $0.68 Sweet potatoes Arta Milled rice BIF Djibouti DJF $0.22 $0.57 Ngozi Cassava Flour Burundi BIF DJF $0.56 $0.85 Cooking bananas Wheat Flour BIF DJF $0.21 $0.57 Dry Beans (Mixed) Dikhil Milled rice BIF Djibouti DJF $0.70 $0.68 Milled rice BIF DJF $0.91 $0.68 Wheat Flour BIF DJF $0.51 $0.68 Sweet potatoes Obock Milled rice BIF Djibouti DJF $0.18 $

14 Obock Wheat Flour Nekemte Maize (White) (W) Djibouti DJF Ethiopia ETB $0.82 $0.21 Tadjourah Milled rice Yabelo Wheat Grain Djibouti DJF Ethiopia ETB $0.71 $0.43 Eldoret Dry Beans (Rosecoco) DJF Kenya KES $ $0.85 Wheat Flour Maize (White) (W) DJF KES $0.57 $0.27 Addis Ababa Maize (White) (W) Potatoes, Irish (white) (W) Ethiopia ETB KES $0.22 $0.13 Wheat Grain (W) (W) ETB KES $0.45 $0.65 Addis Ababa Mixed Teff Kisumu Dry Beans (Rosecoco) Ethiopia ETB Kenya KES $0.78 $0.87 Sorghum (Yellow) Maize (White) (W) ETB KES $0.58 $0.35 Bahir Dar Maize (White) (W) Potatoes, Irish (white) (W) Ethiopia ETB KES $0.21 $0.29 Mixed Teff (W) ETB KES $0.71 $0.36 Bure Maize (White) (W) Kitui Potatoes, Irish (white) (W) Ethiopia ETB Kenya KES $0.22 $0.30 Wheat Grain (W) (W) ETB KES $0.36 $0.40 Dire Dawa Maize (White) Mombasa Dry Beans (Rosecoco) Ethiopia ETB Kenya KES $0.31 $0.65 Wheat Grain (W) Maize (White) (W) ETB KES $0.53 $0.28 Dire Dawa Mixed Teff (W) Ethiopia ETB KES $0.80 $0.30 Mekele Maize (White) (W) Nairobi Dry Beans (Rosecoco) Ethiopia ETB Kenya KES $0.24 $0.66 Wheat Grain (W) Maize (White) (W) ETB KES $0.49 $

15 Nairobi Potatoes, Irish (white) (W) Burao Rice (Parboiled) Kenya KES Somalia SLS $0.24 $0.70 (W) KES SLS $0.39 $0.42 Baidoa Diesel El Dhere Cowpeas (Red) Somalia SOS Somalia SOS $0.89 $0.53 Gasoline Gadon Diesel SOS Somalia SOS $0.97 $1.02 Maize (White) Gasoline SOS SOS $0.25 $1.11 SOS SOS $1.07 $2.00 Rice (Parboiled) Rice (Parboiled) SOS SOS $0.62 $0.80 SOS SOS $0.17 $0.76 Beled Hawa Galkayo Cowpeas (Red) Somalia SOS Somalia SOS $0.62 $1.07 Beled Weyn Rice (Parboiled) Somalia SOS SOS $0.36 $0.71 Bossaso Rice (Parboiled) Somalia SOS SOS $0.62 $0.53 Buale Cowpeas (Red) Garowe Rice (Parboiled) Somalia SOS Somalia SOS $1.13 $0.67 Maize (White) Hargeisa Rice (Parboiled) SOS Somalia SLS $0.29 $0.70 Burao Diesel Lugh Maize (White) Somalia SLS Somalia SOS $0.55 $0.58 Gasoline SLS SOS $0.80 $0.44 Maize (White) Merka Cowpeas (Red) SLS Somalia SOS $0.56 $0.71 Mogadishu Cowpeas (Red) SLS Somalia SOS $1.68 $0.68 8

16 Mogadishu Diesel Juba Sorghum (White) Somalia SOS South Sudan SSP $0.73 $0.98 Gasoline Wheat Flour SOS SSP $0.93 $2.89 Maize (White) Wau Groundnuts (Shelled) SOS South Sudan SSP $0.29 $1.62 Sorghum (White) SOS SSP $0.92 $1.11 Rice (Parboiled) Wheat Flour SOS SSP $0.53 $1.85 Ad-Damazin Millet SOS Sudan SDG $0.26 $0.96 Qorioley Diesel Sorghum (Feterita) Somalia SOS SDG $0.53 $0.55 Gasoline Wheat Grain SOS SDG $0.98 $1.10 Maize (White) Al Qadarif Millet SOS Sudan SDG $0.24 $0.87 Sorghum (Feterita) SOS SDG $0.72 $0.53 Rice (Parboiled) Wheat Grain SOS SDG $0.58 $1.21 Dongola Millet SOS Sudan SDG $0.19 $1.11 Togwajale Sorghum (White) Sorghum (Feterita) Somalia SLS SDG $0.49 $0.69 Aweil Groundnuts (Shelled) Wheat Grain South Sudan SSP SDG $0.91 $0.93 Maize (White) El Fasher Millet SSP Sudan SDG $0.65 $0.84 Sorghum (White) Sorghum (Feterita) SSP SDG $0.98 $0.74 Juba Maize (White) Wheat Grain South Sudan SSP SDG $0.96 $1.14 9

17 El Obeid Millet Arusha Maize (White) (W) Sudan SDG Tanzania, United TZS $1.07 Republic of $0.28 Sorghum (Feterita) Milled rice (W) SDG TZS $0.66 $0.87 Wheat Grain Dar es Salaam Dry Beans (Mixed) (W) SDG Tanzania, United TZS $1.07 Republic of $0.86 Geneina Millet Maize (White) (W) Sudan SDG TZS $ $0.30 Sorghum (Feterita) Milled rice (W) SDG TZS $0.45 $0.90 Kadugli Millet Dodoma Dry Beans (Mixed) (W) Sudan SDG Tanzania, United TZS $1.09 Republic of $0.83 Sorghum (Feterita) Maize (White) (W) SDG TZS $0.55 $0.34 Wheat Grain Milled rice (W) SDG TZS $0.83 $0.82 Nyala Millet Iringa Maize (White) (W) Sudan SDG Tanzania, United TZS 61 $0.87 Republic of $ Sorghum (Feterita) Milled rice (W) SDG TZS $0.72 $0.89 Wheat Grain Kigoma Dry Beans (Mixed) (W) SDG Tanzania, United TZS $1.35 Republic of $0.73 Om Durman Millet Maize (White) (W) Sudan SDG TZS $1.32 $0.33 Sorghum (Feterita) Milled rice (W) SDG TZS $0.83 $0.72 Wheat Grain Mbeya Dry Beans (Mixed) (W) SDG Tanzania, United TZS $1.32 Republic of $0.74 Port Sudan Millet Maize (White) (W) Sudan SDG TZS $0.94 $0.28 Sorghum (Feterita) Milled rice (W) SDG TZS $0.70 $0.80 Arusha Dry Beans (Mixed) (W) Mtwara Maize (White) (W) Tanzania, United TZS Tanzania, United TZS Republic of $0.62 Republic of $

18 Mwanza Milled rice (W) Aden Wheat Flour Tanzania, United TZS Yemen YER Republic of $0.87 $0.74 Songea Dry Beans (Mixed) (W) Al Hudaydah Wheat Flour Tanzania, United TZS Yemen YER Republic of $0.71 $0.63 Maize (White) (W) Amran Wheat Flour TZS Yemen YER $0.24 $0.64 Tanga Milled rice (W) Hajja Wheat Flour Tanzania, United TZS Yemen YER Republic of $0.86 $0.69 Arua Cassava Chips Sa'ada Wheat Flour Uganda UGX Yemen YER $0.36 $0.77 Gulu Dry Beans (K124/Nabe 4) Sana'a Wheat Flour Uganda UGX Yemen YER $0.95 $0.70 Kampala Cooking bananas Uganda UGX $0.30 Dry Beans (Mixed) (W) USD 0.68 $0.68 Maize (White) UGX 145 $0.44 (W) USD 0.24 $0.24 Lira Dry Beans (K124/Nabe 4) Uganda UGX $0.74 Masindi Dry Beans (Mixed) (W) Uganda USD 0.83 $0.83 Maize (White) (W) USD 0.22 $0.22 (W) USD 0.33 $0.33 Mbarara Cooking bananas Uganda UGX $0.25 Dry Beans (K124/Nabe 4) UGX 250 $0.75 Soroti Millet (Finger) Uganda UGX $

19 Karonga Cassava Salima Maize (White) Malawi MWK Malawi MWK $0.16 $0.37 Maize (White) Milled rice MWK MWK $0.32 $0.81 Milled rice Gorongosa Cowpeas (Mixed) MWK Mozambique MZN $0.71 $2.03 Lilongwe Cassava Maize (White) Malawi MWK MZN $0.88 $0.48 Maize (White) Maputo Cowpeas (Mixed) MWK Mozambique MZN $0.36 $0.43 Milled rice Diesel MWK MZN $1.10 $0.75 Lunzu Cassava Maize Meal Malawi MWK MZN $0.58 $0.96 Maize (White) Maize (White) MWK MZN Southern Africa $0.40 $0.53 Milled rice MWK MZN $1.03 $1.22 Mitundu Cassava Rice (5% Broken) 0 Malawi MWK MZN $0.17 $0.71 Maize (White) Maxixe Cowpeas (Mixed) MWK Mozambique MZN $0.37 $1.35 Milled rice Maize (White) MWK MZN $0.94 $0.35 Mzuzu Cassava Rice (5% Broken) Malawi MWK MZN $0.30 $0.78 Maize (White) Nampula Cowpeas (Mixed) MWK Mozambique MZN $0.32 $1.52 Milled rice Diesel MWK MZN $1.10 $0.78 Nsanje Maize (White) Maize (White) Malawi MWK MZN $0.38 $0.58 Salima Cassava Malawi MWK MZN $0.19 $1.02 Southern Africa 12

20 Nampula Rice (5% Broken) Mongu Maize (White) Mozambique MZN Zambia ZMW $0.81 $0.22 Tete Maize (White) Roller Maize Meal Mozambique MZN ZMW $0.57 $0.27 Rice (5% Broken) Solwezi Maize (White) MZN Zambia ZMW $0.81 $0.23 Chipata Maize (White) Roller Maize Meal Zambia ZMW ZMW $0.22 $0.25 Roller Maize Meal Bulawayo Maize (White) ZMW Zimbabwe USD $0.23 $0.46 Choma Maize (White) Roller Maize Meal Zambia ZMW USD $0.26 $0.60 Kabwe Maize (White) Gwanda Maize (White) Zambia ZMW Zimbabwe USD $0.25 $0.57 Roller Maize Meal Roller Maize Meal ZMW USD Southern Africa $0.22 $0.65 Kasama Maize (White) Harare Diesel Zambia ZMW Zimbabwe USD 1.00 Roller Maize Meal $0.29 $1.00 Gasoline ZMW USD $0.24 $1.23 Kitwe Maize (White) Maize (White) Zambia ZMW USD $0.19 $0.43 Roller Maize Meal Roller Maize Meal ZMW USD $0.22 $0.60 Lusaka Diesel Masvingo Maize (White) Zambia ZMW Zimbabwe USD $0.76 $0.46 Maize (White) Roller Maize Meal ZMW USD $0.22 $0.60 Roller Maize Meal ZMW 2.64 $ Mansa Zambia Maize (White) ZMW 2.22 $0.20 Roller Maize Meal ZMW 2.65 $ Southern Africa 13

21 San Jose Dry Beans (Black) (W) Santa Ana Maize (White) (W) Costa Rica USD El Salvador USD $1.63 $0.45 Dry Beans (Red) (W) San Vicente Dry Beans (Seda Red) (W) USD El Salvador USD $2.41 $1.46 Maize (White) (W) Maize (White) (W) USD USD $0.75 $0.44 Refined sugar (W) Usulután Dry Beans (Seda Red) (W) USD El Salvador USD $1.13 $1.40 Ahuachapán Dry Beans (Seda Red) (W) Maize (White) (W) El Salvador USD USD $1.28 $0.46 Maize (White) (W) Guatemala City Diesel USD Guatemala GTQ $0.43 $0.51 La Unión Dry Beans (Seda Red) (W) Gasoline El Salvador USD GTQ $1.52 $0.65 Maize (White) (W) Cap Haitien Dry Beans (Black) Central America and Caribbean USD Haiti HTG $0.47 $2.29 San Miguel Dry Beans (Red) (W) Maize Meal El Salvador Dry Beans (Seda Red) (W) USD HTG $1.20 $0.72 Refined sugar USD HTG $1.30 $ Maize (White) (W) USD HTG $0.46 $1.62 San Salvador Dry Beans (Red) Rice (4% Broken) El Salvador USD HTG $1.43 $1.08 Dry Beans (Seda Red) Hinche Dry Beans (Black) USD Haiti HTG $1.63 $2.11 Maize (White) Maize Meal USD HTG $0.51 $0.63 Refined sugar Refined sugar USD HTG $0.99 $1.29 Rice (10% Broken) USD HTG $0.99 $1.32 Santa Ana Dry Beans (Seda Red) (W) Rice (4% Broken) El Salvador USD HTG $1.28 $0.90 Central America and Caribbean 14

22 Hinche Wheat Flour Port-au-Prince Rice (4% Broken) Haiti HTG Haiti HTG $0.66 $0.77 Jacmel Dry Beans (Black) Wheat Flour Haiti HTG HTG $2.35 $0.72 Maize Meal Choluteca Dry Beans (Red) (W) HTG Honduras HNL $0.72 $1.06 Refined sugar Maize (White) (W) HTG HNL $1.26 $0.43 Comayagua Dry Beans (Red) (W) HTG Honduras HNL $1.73 $1.12 Rice (4% Broken) Maize (White) (W) HTG HNL $0.90 $0.41 Wheat Flour Siguatepeque Dry Beans (Red) (W) HTG Honduras HNL $1.08 $1.12 Jeremie Dry Beans (Black) Maize (White) (W) Central America and Caribbean Haiti HTG HNL 9.23 $2.13 $0.42 Maize Meal Tegucigalpa Dry Beans (Red) HTG Honduras HNL Refined sugar $0.48 $1.14 Maize (White) HTG HNL 9.56 $1.08 $0.43 Central America and Caribbean Rice (4% Broken) HTG HNL $1.73 $0.90 Rice (4% Broken) Mexico City Dry Beans (Black) (W) HTG Mexico MXN $0.90 $0.84 Wheat Flour Dry Beans (Red) (W) HTG MXN $0.72 $1.02 Port-au-Prince Dry Beans (Black) Eggs (Fresh, White) (W) Haiti HTG MXN $1.89 $1.26 Maize Meal Maize (White) (W) HTG MXN $0.66 $0.30 Refined sugar Refined sugar (W) HTG MXN $0.93 $0.62 (W) HTG MXN $1.51 $

23 Mexico City Rice (10% Broken) (W) Faizabad Rice (Low Grade) Mexico MXN Afghanistan AFN $0.73 $0.69 Managua Dry Beans (Black) (W) Wheat Flour (Low Nicaragua NIO AFN $0.81 $0.41 Dry Beans (Red) (W) Wheat Grain NIO AFN $1.05 $0.38 Dry Beans (Tinto) (W) Hirat Diesel NIO Afghanistan AFN $1.03 $0.45 Maize (White) (W) NIO AFN $0.47 $0.99 Rice (20% Broken) (W) Rice (Low Grade) NIO AFN $0.92 $0.40 Rice (4% Broken) (W) Wheat Flour (Low NIO AFN $0.98 $0.33 Sorghum (White) (W) Wheat Grain Central America and Caribbean NIO AFN $0.46 $0.30 Central Asia Jalalabad Rice (Low Grade) Afghanistan AFN $0.43 Wheat Flour (Low AFN $0.31 Wheat Grain AFN $0.30 Kabul Diesel Afghanistan AFN $0.51 AFN $1.15 Rice (Low Grade) AFN $0.85 Wheat Flour (Low AFN $0.37 Wheat Grain AFN $0.39 Kandahar Rice (Low Grade) Afghanistan AFN $

24 Kandahar Wheat Flour (Low Lahore Rice (Long Grain, IRRI-6) Afghanistan AFN Pakistan PKR $0.37 $0.47 Wheat Grain Wheat Flour AFN PKR $0.37 $0.38 Maimana Rice (Low Grade) Wheat Grain Afghanistan AFN PKR $0.54 $0.35 Wheat Flour (Low Multan Rice (Long Grain, Basmati) AFN Pakistan PKR $0.34 $0.61 Wheat Grain Rice (Long Grain, IRRI-6) AFN PKR $0.34 $0.34 Mazar-e-Sharif Diesel Wheat Flour Afghanistan AFN PKR $0.45 $0.37 Wheat Grain AFN PKR $1.11 $0.33 Rice (Low Grade) Peshawar Rice (Long Grain, Basmati) AFN Pakistan PKR $0.53 $0.64 Central Asia Wheat Flour (Low Rice (Long Grain, IRRI-6) AFN PKR $0.33 $ Wheat Grain Wheat Flour AFN PKR $0.32 $0.37 Nili Rice (Low Grade) Wheat Grain Afghanistan AFN PKR $0.88 $0.33 Wheat Flour (Low Quetta Rice (Long Grain, IRRI-6) AFN Pakistan PKR $0.51 $0.47 Wheat Grain Wheat Flour AFN PKR $0.48 $0.39 Karachi Rice (Long Grain, Basmati) National Average Wheat Flour (First Grade) Pakistan PKR Tajikistan TJS $0.66 $0.43 Rice (Long Grain, IRRI-6) PKR $0.42 Wheat Flour PKR $0.40 Wheat Grain PKR $ Central Asia 17

25 MAIZE WHEAT Gulf of Mexico Maize Aktau Port Milling Wheat United States (Yellow No. 2) Kazakhstan KZT USD $0.17 $0.16 Black Sea Milling Wheat Randfontein Maize (Average) USD 0.18 South Africa (Yellow) $0.18 (SAFEX) ZAR Eastern States Wheat $0.21 Australia (ASW) Maize (standard) AUD 0.28 (White) USD 0.21 ZAR Gulf of Mexico Wheat $0.31 United States No. 2, Hard Red Winter Up River Maize USD 0.21 Argentina ARS $0.21 $0.16 WHEAT RICE Gulf of Mexico Wheat Bangkok Rice United States No. 2, Soft Red Winter Thailand (100% B) USD THB $0.19 $0.39 Randfontein Wheat Grain Rice South Africa ZAR 4.62 (A1 Super) (SAFEX) $0.30 THB Rouën Wheat $0.34 France (Grade 1) -2 Hanoi Rice EUR Vietnam (5% broken) $0.17 VND 7, St. Lawrence Wheat $0.36 Canada (CWRS) CAD SORGHUM $0.22 Up River Wheat Gulf of Mexico Sorghum Argentina (Trigo Pan) United States (Yellow No. 2) ARS USD $0.19 $0.16 CRUDE OIL SOYBEANS WTI Crude Oil* Gulf of Mexico Soybeans United States USD United States USD $37.77 $0.21 Brent Crude Oil* Northern Sea USD SUGAR $39.07 Dubai Crude Oil* Caribbean Sugar (Raw) Persian Gulf USD (Average) USD $35.18 $0.34 *reported in $/bbl 18