PRICE WATCH November 2015 Prices December 31, 2015

Transcription

1 PRICE WATCH November 2015 Prices December 31, 2015 KEY MESSAGES In West Africa, market availability was good in November with carryover stocks, early supplies from aboveaverage 2015/16 regional harvests and international rice and wheat imports. Markets remained disrupted throughout the Lake Chad Basin (Page 3). In East Africa, maize prices increased seasonally in surplusproducing areas of Uganda and Tanzania. Below average harvests are anticipated in Ethiopia and Sudan, putting pressure on markets. Markets remain disrupted by insecurity in South Sudan, Somalia, and Yemen (Page 4). In Southern Africa, regional maize production for the 2015/16 marketing year is estimated to be belowaverage. Significant maize deficits are seen in and Zimbabwe, Malawi, and Mozambique. Maize prices increased as stocks tightened with the progression of the lean season, especially in Malawi, and are well aboveaverage price levels across the region (Page 5). In Central America, maize prices continued to seasonally decline across the region with supplies from the recent Primera season (main maize harvest). Red bean prices decreased early in El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua with the early start of the bean harvest (Postrera). Locallyproduced bean and maize availability remained belowaverage in Haiti, while imported commodity prices remained stable (Page 6). In Central Asia, wheat availability remained good regionwide. Prices are below their respective 2014 levels in surplusproducing areas (Page 7). International staple food markets remain well supplied. Maize, wheat, rice, and soybean prices were stable in November and below their respective 2014 levels (Figures 2 and 3). Crude oil prices decreased and remained belowaverage (Page 2). Figure 1. FEWS NET regional price indices and FAO Food Price Index, January 2010 November 2015 Sources: FAO and FEWS NET. (FEWS NET) monitors trends in staple food prices in countries at risk of food insecurity. The Price Watch provides an update on market and price trends in selected reference markets. Specific trends for key reference markets and commodities are available in the Price Watch Annexes 1 and 2. FEWS NET gratefully acknowledges partner organizations, ministries of agriculture, national market information systems, the Regional Agricultural Intelligence Network, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the World Food Programme (WFP), and others for their assistance in providing price data. FEWS NET fewsnetmt@fews.net FEWS NET is a USAIDfunded activity. The content of this report does not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government

2 PRICE WATCH December 2015 INTERNATIONAL MARKETS situation International rice prices were stable in November and below 2014 levels (AMIS). Global stocks at the end of 2015 are generally stable with 2014 levels. The Thai government continued to offload large volumes of public stocks. Growing conditions are unfavorable in parts of Southeast Asia, including Thailand, due to El Niño (InterRice). International maize prices were stable with stable export prices in the world s largest producer and exporter countries, including the United States (U.S.), Argentina, Brazil, and Ukraine (Figure 2). Global prices were below 2014 levels reflecting record level global supplies (AMIS and FAO). International wheat prices were stable as pressure from abundant global supplies and low export demand offset concerns over dry weather conditions in the Black Sea region and U.S. Global prices were still well below (by over 20 percent) their respective 2014 levels (AMIS and FAO). International soybean prices remained stable and well below 2014 levels. Global supplies are at an alltime record high with favorable conditions as harvests end in the northern hemisphere (AMIS). International crude oil prices decreased, remaining at the lowest level since 2009, and were, on average, significantly below 2014 levels (U.S. Energy Information Administration and World Bank). Outlook Figure 2. Food commodity prices in selected international markets, January 2010 October 2015 Figure 3. Global Market Indicators, 2015/16 compared to average Sources: FAO and World Bank. Global rice production projections for 2015/16 are slightly below 2014/15 record levels due to the El Niño climate phenomenon and reduced production forecast in the U.S., India, and Thailand (IGC). World demand is projected to outgrow production and global stocks may decline for the first time since 2005 (IGC and InterRice). Global maize production is projected to be slightly below to last year s record crop (USDA FAS and IGC). Although global maize demand for 2015/16 is projected to be near 2014 levels, large inventories in Argentina, Brazil, India, and the U.S. indicate that world ending stocks will remain high (AMIS). Global wheat production projections for 2015/16 are expected to surpass the 2014/15 record level based on larger crops in Canada and the E.U., leading to a 13year high stock level ending in 2016 (USDA FAS and AMIS). Ukraine s exports are expected to be the second highest ever. Prices are expected to remain belowaverage (USDA FAS). Global soybean 2015/16 production forecasts are slightly above the 2014/15 record levels. Global demand may grow over 2015/16 based on signs of expanding demand in Asia and South America (AMIS). International crude oil prices are expected to stabilize and remain lower than their respective 2014 levels over the remainder of 2015 (U.S. Energy Information Administration and World Bank). However, fuel prices may increase in some importing countries due to the depreciation of the local currency visàvis the U.S. dollar and local fuel price policies. Staple food price trends across the countries monitored by FEWS NET will vary considerably in the coming months in response to local and regional market conditions; international market trends will play a more limited role in most countries (Figure 1). Fuel price trends in FEWS NET countries will depend on both international market conditions, the evolution of local exchange rates in relation to the U.S. Dollar, and the design and implementation of local fuel import and price policies. Famine Early Warning Systems Network 2

3 PRICE WATCH December 2015 Situation WEST AFRICA Supplies on markets continued to improve in November as harvests were ongoing or recently completed across the region. Demand remains relatively low in production zones and average in urban centers. Aggregate regional cereal production is expected to be above average in 2015/16 (Figure 4); regional maize and rice production reached record high levels. Imported rice also contributes to regional staple food availability. Crossborder trade remains dynamic in all the commercial basins in the region. The exception to this general trend is in the greater Lake Chad area, where the effects of Boko Haram have resulted in belowaverage production in 2015/16 and significant market disruptions. There have likewise recently been a resurgence of attacks in Northern and Central Mali, although the market impacts have been limited. In Ghana, the joint effects of belowaverage production (maize) and the depreciation of the local currency in Ghana have led to reduced regional exports. Prices generally followed their seasonal trends in November, decreasing for millet, sorghum, tubers, and cash crops and stable to decreasing for imported rice. The prices for maize (Figure 5), on the other hand, did not decline seasonally in central Niger (Gaya and Niamey) due to late harvests and belowaverage imports from supplying countries (Benin and Ghana). Insecurity affected some regional trade routes, causing some atypical monthly prices increases for sorghum in N Djamena, Chad, which normally imports from neighboring Nigeria. Moreover, in Niger, millet prices went up in various localities compared to the previous month due to increased demand by cattle herders for stocks replenishment in light of the transhumance. Harvests in Ebolaaffected Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea are estimated to be average, with production surpluses recorded in several areas. Market activities continue to progressively improve thanks to some partial lifting of population movement restriction, market closure, and trade restriction measures. Outlook Market supplies will continue to improve as harvests progress throughout the region in December. Institutional demand is expected to be average. Prices are expected to follow their regular seasonal trends across much of the region in the upcoming months, even as some producers focus on selling off cash crops rather than cereals. Figure 4. West Africa Regional cereal production (000s MT) Source: Authors calculations based on CILSS 2015 data. Figure 5. Maize prices in Ghana, Niger, and Benin () Source: Authors calculations based on ONASA, SIMA Niger, SONAGESS, and WFP data. Imports of rice and wheat from international markets are expected to proceed without any major disruptions. Trade in the greater Lake Chad area will likely remain disrupted and prices and market supplies volatile in the coming months. Famine Early Warning Systems Network 3

4 PRICE WATCH December 2015 Situation EAST AFRICA Markets are generally well supplied in Uganda and Tanzania. Maize prices followed their respective seasonal trends in Uganda in November, by continuing to increase. Prices increased seasonally in the northern bimodal southern surplusproducing highland areas of Tanzania. Exportable surpluses of maize and dry beans continued supplying deficit areas of neighboring countries through both formal and informal exports. In Kenya, staple food prices declined with the progression of the OctobertoFebruary long rains harvests in the mainproducing North Rift. Stocks of regionallyimported commodities in main consumption centers reinforced market supplies and price trends. The economy in South Sudan has been heavily affected by domestic civil strife and reduced state revenues attributed to the global decline in oil prices (a main source of national revenues). The recent sharp depreciation of the SSP has put upward pressure on the cost of imported commodities. In areas directly affected by conflict, staple food markets remain very thin and prices volatile. Staple food prices increased sharply in October and November in Greater Equatoria due to belowaverage local harvests coupled with outbursts of conflict and unrest that disrupted key marketing corridors (Figure 6). The availability of carryover stocks from the well aboveaverage 2014/15 rainfed season in Sudan helped to offset some of the effects of below average production during Source: FAMERS, Sudan; WFP, Ethiopia. the current 2015/16 rainfed sorghum season. Sorghum prices were atypically stable during the postharvest period in Al Qadarif, a surplusproducing area (Figure 7). In Ethiopia, consecutive aboveaverage Meher harvests have offset some of the effects of the recent belowaverage Belg season. Staple food prices declined in many areas following the JunetoAugust Belg, but not as quickly as they normally do. Prices of small ruminants in the northern agropastoral regions are atypically low due to poor animal body conditions. Staple food availability and market activities remain disrupted in conflictaffected areas of southern Somalia. The crisis in Yemen continues to affect import flows and security along key national marketing corridors, resulting in highly variable staple food prices. Outlook Figure 6. Grain prices in Juba, South Sudan (SSP/kg) Source: WFP VAM, South Sudan. Figure 7. Sorghum prices in surplus areas of East Africa () Staple food prices are expected to continue following their respective seasonal trends in Uganda and increase earlier than usual in Tanzania, but remain with range of their respective fiveyear average levels. Staple food prices in South Sudan are expected to remain volatile through the postharvest period due to the effects of high levels of uncertainty and high transport costs on grain marketing. The official exchange rate was allowed to float as of mid December 2015, which narrowed the gap between the official and parallel market exchange rates. Recent FEWS NET reporting has indicated that the strong ongoing El Niño is raising the risk of significant flooding in parts of the region and belowaverage rainfall in others. Either outcome may affect food availability and access in countries like Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, and Somalia. In Sudan, staple food prices are expected to increase earlier than usual over the 2015/16 marketing year, but remain within range of 2014/15 levels due to the abundance of carryover stocks and international wheat imports. FEWS NET will continue to closely monitor staple food availability and prices in Yemen over the coming months. Famine Early Warning Systems Network 4

5 PRICE WATCH December 2015 Situation SOUTHERN AFRICA In Southern Africa, maize availability continued to decline seasonally in November with the progression of the lean season. Supplies are tighter than usual throughout the region as a result of significantly belowaverage harvests that ended in June (Figure 9). The regional maize deficit was revised downwards based on updated harvest and carryover stock level assessments, but is still estimated to be more than 500,000 MT. Figure 8. White maize prices in Southern Africa Zimbabwe, Malawi, and Mozambique face the greatest national maize deficits in the region, leading to significant import requirements. Zambia remains the regions major exporter this year, with large formal maize exports to Zimbabwe and Malawi. South Africa increased white maize exports to the region in November, mostly to Namibia, Botswana, and Lesotho, while yellow maize regional exports remained stable. Malawi also informally imported maize from Zambia and Mozambique. Sources: Malawi Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation, and Water Development (MITM), Zambia Central Statistics Office, and SAFEX. Figure 9. Estimated total maize supply in Southern Africa ( 000s MT) as of Nov 30, 2015 Maize grain prices remained stable or increased and are significantly above respective 2014 and fiveyear average levels across the region (Figure 8). Although Zimbabwe s national average maize price remained the highest in the region (in USD terms), prices continue to be atypically stable due to the strength of the USD and the high volumes of maize imports from Zambia. In contrast, prices started increasing earlier and sharper than usual in Malawi last month, following the start of Sources: FEWS NET estimates and Government Ministries, SADC, ADMARC maize sales at subsidized prices in September, and FEWS NET. as a result of the supply shortage, high import volumes, and significant deprecation of the Malawian Kwacha. Maize grain and maize meal prices increased in Zambia for a second consecutive month, with significant increases in surplus areas, reflecting rapidly declining supplies resulting from high export levels. The Zambian Kwacha (ZMW) recovered in November, appreciating by about 16 percent against the USD, but Zambia s export parity prices remained the lowest in the region, encouraging continued demand. Outlook Regional maize supplies are expected to be belowaverage over the remainder of the 2015/16 marketing year, with notable deficits in Zimbabwe, Malawi, and Mozambique. Export levels from Zambia are expected to decline but continue to help alleviate deficits in Malawi and Zimbabwe. South Africa is expected to continue to export to Mozambique, along with other parts of the region, although at belowaverage levels. Maize prices will continue to increase in December and remain above respective fiveyear average levels across the region. Price increases are expected to be especially high in Malawi given the large local deficits and ongoing currency depreciation. As a result of the El Niño climate phenomenon, abnormal rainfall patterns in Southern Africa will likely delay the start and reduce production of the 2016 harvest. A delayed start of the season is likely to exacerbate maize shortages in Malawi ahead of the harvest, with ADMARC supplies estimated to be insufficient this year and may be exhausted in March. If 2016 harvests are belowaverage, many countries in the region may face shortages over the 2016/17 marketing year that are greater than the current shortages, given the low carryover stocks expected at the end of the 2015/16 marketing year. Famine Early Warning Systems Network 5

6 PRICE WATCH December 2015 Situation CENTRAL AMERICA AND CARIBBEAN In Central America, the Primera harvest (mainly maize) was belowaverage but increased supplies, while the Postrera harvest (mainly red beans) started early in November with favorable prospects. Availability and prices of imported rice and wheat flour remained stable in Haiti, while locallyproduced black bean supplies were belowaverage and prices increased. Red bean supplies from the Postrera harvest began to reach markets slightly earlier than usual in early November, causing prices to atypically decrease again in Nicaragua, El Salvador, and Honduras when they typically increase. Red bean prices are well below the atypically high 2014 prices, and have now also fallen below fiveyear average levels due to the projected average Postrera harvest. In Guatemala, freshly harvested beans from the Postrera harvest in the Eastern region reached markets, and imported black beans from Mexico continued to augment supplies as well. With adequate supply levels, black bean prices were seasonally stable, below 2014 levels, and similar to the fiveyear average. White maize prices seasonally declined following the Primera harvest in Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua. However, the seasonal price decline was late this year and prices remain above 2014 and average levels, except Guatemala, as a result of belowaverage Primera production. Maize prices in Guatemala (and Mexico) were below or similar to 2014 and average levels (Figure 10). Guatemala maintained above=average supplies with imports from Mexico, while El Salvador imported from the U.S. and Mexico to increase its supplies. In Haiti, staple food availability was adequate. Prices of local maize flour continued to increase following the poor spring maize harvests, which was estimated at 60 percent of normal production. Black bean prices increased during the postharvest period and remained well above respective 2014 and fiveyear average levels (by 49 to 125 percent; Figure 11). Internationally imported rice and wheat prices remain stable due to stable international markets and despite the recent depreciation of the Gourde. Maize flour prices followed imported rice and wheat trends. Outlook Figure 10. White maize prices in Central America Figure 11. Black bean prices in Haiti Sources: Coordination nationale de la sécurité alimentaire (CNSA) and FEWS NET, MAL, Dirección General de Economía Agropecuaria (DGECA), Sistema de Información de Mercados Productos Agrícolas de Honduras (SIMPAH), Secretaria de Economia de Mexico, and Ministerio de Agricultura, Ganaderia y Alimentacion de Guatemala (MAGA). In Central America, based on favorable prospects for the Postrera harvest (the main bean harvest) in El Salvador, Honduras, and Guatemala, red and black bean prices are expected to continue to seasonally decrease. Although the impact of El Nino in Nicaragua remains uncertain, it could limit the Apante harvest causing atypical bean price increases in Nicaragua and a reduced source of supplies for El Salvador and Honduras. Red bean price trends will depend on those effects in the coming months, but prices are expected to stay above average but below atypically high 2014 levels. Prices of white maize are expected to seasonally increase and remain above 2014 and average levels in Honduras, Nicaragua, and El Salvador, but remain similar to 2014 and average levels in Guatemala. In Haiti, harvests are expected to be up to 30 percent belowaverage. Prices of locallyproduced black bean prices will likely remain stable during the harvest period and then increase steadily thereafter. Prices of imported rice and wheat flour will limit the extent to which local maize flour grain and prices increase. FEWS NET will monitor closely the extent to which the recent depreciation of the Haitian Gourde visàvis the USD affects rice and wheat import volumes and prices. Famine Early Warning Systems Network 6

7 PRICE WATCH December 2015 Situation CENTRAL ASIA Regional availability and price trends varied considerably across Central Asia with the progression of the 2015/16 marketing year and in November (Figure 12 and Table 1). However, as detailed in the Central Asia Regional Wheat Supply and Market Outlook, regional deficits are expected to be filled through intraregional trade. Wheat grain export prices in Kazakhstan, the region s largest exporter, stabilized in November after decreasing between August and October Price are over 20 percent below the fiveyear average. Stable prices are attributed to increased regional demand, driven by the depreciation of the Kazakh tenge (KZT) and resulting relatively lower prices. Wheat flour prices have been stable at record high levels in Tajikistan since April Supplies from recent harvests have improved availability at local markets, but have not been sufficient to offset the effects of the sharp depreciation of the Somoni (TJS). Wheat flour prices remain above the average by more than 20 percent in this wheat grain and wheat flour importing country. In Pakistan, another regional wheat flour exporter, Afghanistan Importer Average Aboveaverage wheat grain and flour prices remained stable between Source: FEWS NET estimates. October and November in most major markets but slightly seasonally increased in some wheatdeficit provinces. Prices are nearly stable in major markets compared to 2014 and fiveyear average levels, reflecting average wheat production coupled with higher than average carryover stocks. In Afghanistan, wheat grain prices slightly increased in some markets following the arrival of winter season, but are similar to respective 2014 levels in all major markets. Imported wheat flour prices were stable or decreased in many areas because of steady imports from Pakistan and Kazakhstan. The Afghani (AFN) depreciated consistently since June 2015 against international currencies affecting prices of imported food. Its impact was more noticeable in Kabul compared to other markets where price fluctuations are more common. Outlook Figure 12. Wheat prices in Selected markets of Central Asia () Source: WFP, VAM; APK Inform Agency, Kazakhstan. Table 1. Regional wheat availability and price trends Country Status Local availability 2015 Prices Kazakhstan Exporter Belowaverage Belowaverage Pakistan Exporter Average Nearaverage Tajikistan Importer Average Record high Regional availability and price trends are expected to continue varying across Central Asia over the 2015/16 marketing year. The wheat harvest is almost complete in Kazakhstan and is expected to be eight percent higher than last year s production. With average wheat production this year the stock levels also increased slightly supporting normal wheat grain and flour exports to the Central Asian countries (USDA/FAS). Price trends in Tajikistan will depend largely on the extent to which lower regional export prices are offset by the depreciating value of the TJS. Average wheat production in 2015 (25.5 MMT) and above average stocks from previous years will support wheat grain and flour prices to be stable for coming months in Pakistan. The Federal Committee on Agriculture (FCA) has fixed the wheat production target for 2015/16 at 26 MMT, similar to last year. If the country achieves the target, stock levels, which are already at 25 percent more than last year (7 MMT), will increase further. The government of Pakistan may need to intervene further in markets to sustain its price stability with its consistently increasing stocks. In Afghanistan, prices may increase further in December when households start stocking ahead of the winter months. Prices may seasonally increase during upcoming lean season (February to April) but no anomaly is expected because of the average domestic and regional wheat availabilities. Famine Early Warning Systems Network 7

8 PRICE WATCH ANNEX 1 November 2015 Prices December 31, 2015 Bobo Dioulasso Pouytenga Burkina Faso XOF Burkina Faso XOF $0.23 $0.25 Millet (Pearl) Millet (Pearl) XOF XOF $0.32 $0.31 Sorghum (White) Sorghum (White) XOF XOF $0.26 $0.21 Djibo Solenzo Burkina Faso XOF Burkina Faso XOF $0.30 $0.15 Millet (Pearl) Millet (Pearl) XOF XOF $0.29 $0.23 Sorghum (White) Sorghum (White) XOF XOF $0.26 $0.15 Koudougou Abeche Millet (Pearl) Burkina Faso XOF Chad XAF $0.26 $0.34 West Africa Millet (Pearl) XOF XAF 18 $0.33 $0.30 Sorghum (White) Bol XOF Chad XAF $0.28 $0.33 Ouagadougou Gasoline Mongo Millet (Pearl) Burkina Faso XOF Chad XAF $1.12 $0.39 Moundou Millet (Pearl) XOF Chad XAF $0.23 $0.48 Millet (Pearl) XOF XAF $0.34 $0.34 Refined Vegetable Oil Moussoro XOF Chad XAF $1.48 $0.36 Sorghum (White) Millet (Pearl) XOF XAF $0.31 $0.42 Whole milk powder Rice (5% Broken) XOF XAF $8.94 $0.86 West Africa (FEWS NET) monitors trends in staple food prices in countries vulnerable to food insecurity. The Price Watch Annex 1 provides prices and price changes for key markets and staple foods monitored across FEWS NET countries and regions. The prices are final monthly average prices for November Commodities included in the Annex are the staples most often consumed by the poor in the indicated market. Additional commodities provided are important commodities consumed in the same areas or fuel prices that affect food prices. Final monthly average prices are used. The symbols () depict the direction of price changes: the red upwardfacing arrow denotes an increase of five percent or greater. The blue horizontal arrow denotes no change or changes that are smaller than 5 percent, and the green downwardfacing arrow denotes price decreases that are five percent or greater. The three arrows respectively correspond to the percent change in prices this month compared to last month, last year, and the fiveyear average. The symbol indicates that data are not available. The commodities with a reference (W) are wholesale prices. Otherwise, all reported prices are retail. FEWS NET fewsnetmt@fews.net FEWS NET is a USAIDfunded activity. The content of this report does not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government.

9 PRICE WATCH ANNEX December 31, 2015 N'Djamena Local milled rice Sikasso Millet (Pearl) Chad XAF Mali XOF $0.75 $0.32 Timbuktu Local milled rice XAF Mali XOF $0.43 $0.55 Millet (Pearl) Adel Bagrou Milled rice XAF Mauritania MRO $0.49 $0.81 Rice (5% Broken) Refined sugar XAF MRO $0.83 $0.73 Refined Vegetable Oil XAF MRO $0.38 $1.50 Sarh Millet (Pearl) Rice (100% Broken) Chad XAF MRO $0.39 $1.14 Sorghum (White) XAF MRO $0.35 $0.36 Conakry Milled rice Guinea GNF MRO $0.85 $0.56 West Africa Rice (5% Broken) Aoujeft Sorghum (White) GNF Mauritania MRO 40 3 $0.52 $1.26 Bamako Millet (Pearl) Mali XOF MRO $0.35 $0.41 Rice (Gambiaca) Boghé Milled rice XOF Mauritania MRO $0.62 $0.61 Gao Millet (Pearl) Refined sugar Mali XOF MRO $0.33 $0.63 Kayes Millet (Pearl) Refined Vegetable Oil Mali XOF MRO $0.39 $1.11 Koulikoro Millet (Pearl) Rice (100% Broken) Mali XOF MRO $0.31 $0.70 Mopti Millet (Pearl) Sorghum (White) Mali XOF MRO $0.33 $0.73 Segou Millet (Pearl) Mali XOF MRO $0.30 $0.40 Rice (Gambiaca) Magtalahjar Milled rice XOF Mauritania MRO $0.57 $0.64 West Africa 3 3 2

10 Magtalahjar Refined sugar Bakin Birji Millet (Pearl) Mauritania MRO Niger XOF $0.63 $0.22 Refined Vegetable Oil Diffa Cowpeas (Mixed) MRO Niger XOF $1.58 $0.59 Rice (100% Broken) Millet (Pearl) MRO XOF $0.79 $0.30 Sorghum (White) Sorghum (Mixed) MRO XOF $0.83 $0.28 Gaya Maize (Mixed) MRO Niger XOF $0.47 $0.30 Nouakchott Gas cooking oil Maradi Maize (Mixed) Mauritania MRO Niger XOF $1.22 $0.31 Millet (Pearl) MRO XOF $0.87 $0.24 Milled rice Refined Vegetable Oil MRO XOF $0.88 $1.15 West Africa Refined Vegetable Oil Sorghum (Mixed) MRO XOF $1.30 $0.27 West Africa Rice (100% Broken) Whole milk powder MRO XOF $0.87 $5.74 Sorghum (White) Niamey Diesel MRO Niger XOF $1.11 $0.88 Gasoline MRO XOF $0.49 $0.89 Agadez Millet (Pearl) Maize (Mixed) Niger XOF XOF $0.41 $0.32 Refined Vegetable Oil Millet (Pearl) XOF XOF $1.56 $0.36 Rice (5% Broken) Refined Vegetable Oil XOF XOF $0.82 $1.44 Whole milk powder Rice (5% Broken) XOF XOF $5.74 $0.66 Bakin Birji Cowpeas (Mixed) Sorghum (Mixed) Niger XOF XOF $0.30 $0.40 3

11 Niamey Whole milk powder Ibadan Refined palm oil Niger XOF Nigeria NGN $6.15 $1.35 Ouallam Millet (Pearl) Sorghum (White) Niger XOF NGN $0.40 $0.38 Sabon Machi Cowpeas (Mixed) Ilela Millet (Pearl) Niger XOF Nigeria XOF $0.33 $0.26 Tahoua Millet (Pearl) Sorghum (Mixed) Niger XOF XOF $0.39 $0.26 Sorghum (Mixed) Kano Diesel XOF Nigeria NGN $0.33 $1.01 Tillabéri Millet (Pearl) Gasoline Niger XOF NGN $0.35 $0.52 Sorghum (Mixed) Groundnuts (In Shell) XOF NGN $0.34 $0.92 Tounfafi Cowpeas (Mixed) (W) Niger XOF NGN $0.34 $0.26 West Africa Dandume Local milled rice Millet (Pearl) (W) Nigeria NGN NGN $0.52 $0.21 Millet (Pearl) Sorghum (White) (W) NGN NGN $0.29 $0.21 Sorghum (White) Kaura Namoda NGN Nigeria NGN $0.27 $0.31 Giwa Sorghum (White) Nigeria NGN NGN $0.27 $0.25 Sorghum (White) Lagos Yams NGN Nigeria NGN $0.20 $0.67 Ibadan Bread Maiadua Millet (Pearl) Nigeria NGN Nigeria XOF $1.27 $0.21 Diesel Sorghum (Mixed) NGN XOF $0.81 $0.21 Gasoline Saminaka NGN Nigeria NGN $0.49 $0.21 Sorghum (White) NGN NGN $0.32 $0.26 West Africa

12 Dakar Millet Bujumbura Cassava Flour Senegal XOF Burundi BIF $0.41 $0.48 Rice (100% Broken) Cooking bananas XOF BIF $0.45 $0.27 Kaolak Millet Dry Beans (Mixed) Senegal XOF BIF $0.21 $0.72 Rice (100% Broken) XOF BIF $0.45 $0.42 SaintLouis Millet Milled rice Senegal XOF BIF $0.33 $1.02 Rice (100% Broken) XOF BIF $0.48 $0.99 Tambacounda Millet Sweet potatoes Senegal XOF BIF $0.28 $0.25 Ziguichor Maize (Yellow) Gitega Cassava Flour Senegal XOF Burundi BIF $0.39 $0.31 West Africa Rice (100% Broken) Cooking bananas XOF BIF 26 $0.48 $0.17 East Africa Dry Beans (Mixed) BIF $0.66 BIF $0.59 Milled rice BIF 140 $0.91 BIF $0.64 Sweet potatoes BIF $0.15 Kirundo Cassava Flour Burundi BIF $0.37 Cooking bananas BIF $0.37 Dry Beans (Mixed) BIF $

13 Kirundo Ruyigi Cassava Flour Burundi BIF Burundi BIF $0.39 $0.33 Milled rice Cooking bananas BIF BIF $0.89 $0.22 Dry Beans (Mixed) BIF BIF $0.44 $0.58 Sweet potatoes BIF BIF $0.26 $0.56 Muyinga Cassava Flour Milled rice Burundi BIF BIF $0.45 $0.88 Cooking bananas BIF BIF $0.13 $0.49 Dry Beans (Mixed) Sweet potatoes BIF BIF $0.63 $0.20 Addis Ababa (W) BIF Ethiopia ETB $0.43 $0.22 East Africa Milled rice (W) BIF ETB 9.70 $0.83 $0.47 Addis Ababa Mixed Teff BIF Ethiopia ETB $0.72 $0.72 Sweet potatoes Sorghum (Yellow) BIF ETB $0.11 $0.58 Ngozi Cassava Flour Bahir Dar (W) Burundi BIF Ethiopia ETB $0.42 $0.22 Cooking bananas Mixed Teff BIF ETB $0.28 $0.70 Dry Beans (Mixed) Bure (W) BIF Ethiopia ETB $0.68 $0.21 Milled rice Dire Dawa BIF Ethiopia ETB $0.88 $0.30 Sorghum (Yellow) BIF ETB $ $0.38 Sweet potatoes (W) BIF ETB $0.27 $0.55 East Africa 7 0 6

14 Dire Dawa Mixed Teff Nairobi Dry Beans (Rosecoco) Ethiopia ETB Kenya KES $0.73 $0.66 Mekele (W) (W) Ethiopia ETB KES $0.23 $0.31 Mixed Teff Potatoes, Irish (white) (W) ETB KES $0.67 $0.29 (W) (W) ETB KES $0.48 $0.38 Nekemte (W) Baidoa Diesel Ethiopia ETB Somalia SOS $0.21 $0.88 Yabelo Gasoline Ethiopia ETB SOS $0.48 $1.06 Eldoret Dry Beans (Rosecoco) Kenya KES SOS $0.77 $0.26 (W) Refined Vegetable Oil KES SOS $0.25 $1.14 East Africa Potatoes, Irish (white) (W) Rice (Parboiled) KES SOS 1400 $0.20 $0.62 (W) KES SOS $ $0.26 Kisumu Dry Beans (Rosecoco) Beled Hawa Kenya KES Somalia SOS $0.75 $0.58 (W) Beled Weyn KES Somalia SOS $0.34 $0.31 Potatoes, Irish (white) (W) Bossaso Rice (Parboiled) KES Somalia SOS $0.46 $0.62 (W) Buale Cowpeas (Red) KES Somalia SOS $0.38 $1.02 Mombasa Dry Beans (Rosecoco) Kenya KES SOS $0.64 $0.35 (W) Burao Diesel KES Somalia SLS $0.29 $0.67 (W) Gasoline KES SLS $0.35 $0.96 East Africa

15 Burao Mogadishu Cowpeas (Red) Somalia SLS Somalia SOS $0.51 $1.06 Refined Vegetable Oil Diesel SLS SOS $1.54 $0.80 Rice (Parboiled) Gasoline SLS SOS $0.64 $1.02 SLS SOS $0.38 $0.38 El Dhere Cowpeas (Red) Refined Vegetable Oil Somalia SOS SOS $0.63 $0.91 Gadon Diesel Rice (Parboiled) Somalia SOS SOS $1.11 $0.53 Gasoline SOS SOS $1.24 $0.27 Refined Vegetable Oil Qorioley Diesel SOS Somalia SOS $1.99 $0.97 East Africa Gasoline SOS SOS 2600 $0.62 $1.15 Galkayo Cowpeas (Red) Somalia SOS SOS $1.17 $0.18 Rice (Parboiled) Refined Vegetable Oil SOS SOS $0.73 $1.11 Rice (Parboiled) SOS SOS $0.44 $0.66 Garowe Rice (Parboiled) Somalia SOS SOS $0.62 $0.35 Hargeisa Rice (Parboiled) Togwajale Sorghum (White) Somalia SLS Somalia SLS $0.64 $0.44 Lugh Aweil Groundnuts (Shelled) Somalia SOS South Sudan SSP $0.53 $8.06 SOS SSP $0.44 $2.30 Merka Cowpeas (Red) Sorghum (White) Somalia SOS SSP $0.80 $2.86 East Africa

16 Juba El Fasher South Sudan SSP Sudan SDG $2.76 $1.18 Sorghum (White) El Obeid Millet SSP Sudan SDG $3.16 $0.96 Wheat Flour Sorghum (Feterita) SSP SDG $7.66 $0.61 Wau Groundnuts (Shelled) South Sudan SSP SDG $5.73 $0.96 Sorghum (White) Geneina Millet SSP Sudan SDG $4.61 $0.51 Wheat Flour Sorghum (Feterita) SSP SDG $6.45 $ AdDamazin Millet Kadugli Millet Sudan SDG Sudan SDG $0.96 $0.82 Sorghum (Feterita) Sorghum (Feterita) SDG SDG $0.53 $0.49 East Africa SDG SDG 5.00 $1.10 $0.82 Al Qadarif Millet Nyala Millet Sudan SDG Sudan SDG $0.81 $0.84 Sorghum (Feterita) Sorghum (Feterita) SDG SDG $0.49 $0.55 SDG SDG $1.15 $1.37 Dongola Millet Om Durman Millet Sudan SDG Sudan SDG $1.24 $0.99 Sorghum (Feterita) Sorghum (Feterita) SDG SDG $0.74 $0.66 SDG SDG $0.91 $0.99 El Fasher Millet Port Sudan Millet Sudan SDG Sudan SDG $0.95 $0.82 Sorghum (Feterita) Sorghum (Feterita) SDG SDG $0.71 $0.55 East Africa

17 Arusha Dry Beans (Mixed) (W) Mtwara (W) Tanzania, United TZS Tanzania, United TZS Republic of $0.80 Republic of $0.31 (W) Mwanza Milled rice (W) TZS Tanzania, United TZS $0.31 Republic of $0.85 Milled rice (W) Songea Dry Beans (Mixed) (W) TZS Tanzania, United TZS $0.85 Republic of $0.77 Dar es Salaam Dry Beans (Mixed) (W) (W) Tanzania, United TZS TZS Republic of $0.87 $0.22 (W) Tanga Milled rice (W) TZS Tanzania, United TZS $0.32 Republic of $0.83 Milled rice (W) Arua Cassava Chips TZS Uganda UGX $0.86 $0.35 Dodoma Dry Beans (Mixed) (W) Gulu Dry Beans (K124/Nabe 4) Tanzania, United TZS Uganda UGX Republic of $0.89 $0.70 (W) Kampala Cooking bananas TZS Uganda UGX $0.31 $0.39 East Africa Milled rice (W) Dry Beans (Mixed) (W) TZS USD 0.58 $0.89 $ Iringa (W) Tanzania, United TZS UGX Republic of $0.25 $0.42 Milled rice (W) (W) TZS USD $0.78 $0.28 Kigoma Dry Beans (Mixed) (W) Lira Dry Beans (K124/Nabe 4) Tanzania, United TZS Uganda UGX Republic of $0.80 $0.71 (W) Masindi Dry Beans (Mixed) (W) TZS Uganda USD $0.33 $0.57 Milled rice (W) (W) TZS USD $0.83 $0.24 Mbeya Dry Beans (Mixed) (W) (W) Tanzania, United TZS USD Republic of $0.67 $0.29 (W) Mbarara Cooking bananas TZS Uganda UGX $0.27 $0.32 Milled rice (W) Dry Beans (K124/Nabe 4) TZS UGX $0.71 $0.71 East Africa 10

18 Soroti Millet (Finger) Karonga Cassava Uganda UGX Malawi MWK $0.35 $0.13 Aden Wheat Flour Yemen YER MWK $0.97 $0.29 Al Hudaydah Wheat Flour Milled rice Yemen YER MWK $1.12 $0.94 Amran Wheat Flour Lilongwe Cassava Yemen YER Malawi MWK $0.88 $0.63 Hajja Wheat Flour Yemen YER MWK $1.09 $0.28 Sa'ada Wheat Flour Milled rice Yemen YER MWK $1.03 $0.96 Sana'a Wheat Flour Lunzu Cassava Yemen YER Malawi MWK $0.92 $0.52 East Africa Southern Africa MWK $0.30 Milled rice MWK $ Mitundu Malawi Cassava MWK $0.29 MWK $0.24 Milled rice MWK $ Mzuzu Malawi Cassava MWK $0.36 MWK $0.24 Milled rice MWK $ Nsanje Malawi MWK $ Salima Malawi Cassava MWK $

19 Salima Nampula Diesel Malawi MWK Mozambique MZN $0.21 $0.87 Milled rice MWK MZN $0.73 $0.36 Chókwe Cowpeas (Mixed) Refined Vegetable Oil Mozambique MZN MZN $0.91 $1.00 Rice (5% Broken) MZN MZN $0.32 $0.57 Rice (5% Broken) Tete Cowpeas (Mixed) MZN Mozambique MZN $0.68 $0.57 Gorongosa Cowpeas (Mixed) Mozambique MZN MZN $0.67 $0.32 Rice (5% Broken) MZN MZN $0.29 $0.80 Maputo Cowpeas (Mixed) Chipata Mozambique MZN Zambia ZMW Southern Africa $0.80 $0.17 Diesel Roller Maize Meal MZN ZMW $0.84 $0.21 Maize Meal Choma 0 Southern Africa MZN Zambia ZMW $0.68 $0.18 Roller Maize Meal MZN ZMW $0.30 $0.19 Refined Vegetable Oil Kabwe MZN Zambia ZMW $1.16 $0.15 Rice (5% Broken) Roller Maize Meal MZN ZMW $0.57 $0.19 Maxixe Cowpeas (Mixed) Kasama Mozambique MZN Zambia ZMW $0.76 $0.18 Roller Maize Meal MZN ZMW $0.32 $0.21 Rice (5% Broken) Kitwe MZN Zambia ZMW $0.68 $0.16 Nampula Cowpeas (Mixed) Roller Maize Meal Mozambique MZN ZMW $1.14 $

20 Southern Africa Lusaka Diesel Masvingo Zambia ZMW Zimbabwe USD 0.34 $0.71 $0.34 Roller Maize Meal ZMW USD $0.17 $ Roller Maize Meal ZMW 2.49 $ Mansa Zambia ZMW 2.00 $0.16 Roller Maize Meal ZMW 2.40 $ Mongu Zambia ZMW 2.11 $0.17 Roller Maize Meal ZMW 2.64 $ Solwezi Zambia ZMW 1.73 $0.14 Roller Maize Meal ZMW 2.58 $ Bulawayo Zimbabwe USD 0.40 $0.40 Roller Maize Meal USD 0.60 $ Gwanda Zimbabwe USD 0.57 $0.57 Roller Maize Meal USD 0.65 $ Harare Zimbabwe Diesel USD 1.18 $1.18 Gasoline USD 1.31 $1.31 USD 0.29 $0.29 Roller Maize Meal USD 0.47 $ Southern Africa

21 San Jose Dry Beans (Black) (W) San Vicente Dry Beans (Seda Red) (W) Costa Rica USD El Salvador USD $1.75 $1.25 Dry Beans (Red) (W) (W) USD USD $2.77 $0.43 (W) Usulután Dry Beans (Seda Red) (W) USD El Salvador USD $0.74 $1.31 Refined sugar (W) (W) USD USD $1.11 $0.44 Ahuachapán Dry Beans (Seda Red) (W) Guatemala City Diesel El Salvador USD Guatemala GTQ $1.20 $0.61 (W) Dry Beans (Black) USD GTQ $0.40 $1.47 La Unión Dry Beans (Seda Red) (W) Gasoline El Salvador USD GTQ $1.63 $0.70 (W) Central America and Caribbean USD GTQ 3.31 $0.48 $0.44 San Miguel Dry Beans (Red) (W) Maize (Yellow) El Salvador USD GTQ 3.77 $1.17 $ Dry Beans (Seda Red) (W) Cap Haitien Dry Beans (Black) USD Haiti HTG $1.24 $ (W) Maize Meal USD HTG $0.43 $0.68 San Salvador Dry Beans (Red) Refined sugar El Salvador USD HTG $1.48 $1.02 Dry Beans (Seda Red) Refined Vegetable Oil USD HTG $1.65 $1.82 Rice (4% Broken) USD HTG $0.51 $0.90 Rice (10% Broken) Hinche Dry Beans (Black) USD Haiti HTG $0.99 $2.56 Santa Ana Dry Beans (Seda Red) (W) Maize Meal El Salvador USD HTG $1.27 $0.68 (W) Refined sugar USD HTG $0.42 $1.37 Central America and Caribbean 14

22 Hinche Refined Vegetable Oil PortauPrince Refined sugar Haiti HTG Haiti HTG $1.47 $1.02 Rice (4% Broken) Refined Vegetable Oil HTG HTG $0.96 $1.72 Wheat Flour Rice (4% Broken) HTG HTG $0.68 $0.82 Jacmel Dry Beans (Black) Wheat Flour Haiti HTG HTG $2.70 $0.68 Maize Meal Choluteca Dry Beans (Red) (W) HTG Honduras HNL $0.77 $1.00 Refined sugar (W) HTG HNL $1.13 $0.37 Refined Vegetable Oil Comayagua Dry Beans (Red) (W) HTG Honduras HNL $1.87 $1.00 Rice (4% Broken) (W) Central America and Caribbean HTG HNL 8.21 $0.99 $0.38 Wheat Flour Siguatepeque Dry Beans (Red) (W) HTG Honduras HNL $1.28 $0.97 Jeremie Dry Beans (Black) (W) Haiti HTG HNL 6.50 $2.22 $0.30 Central America and Caribbean Maize Meal Tegucigalpa Dry Beans (Red) HTG Honduras HNL $0.75 $1.20 Refined sugar HTG HNL $1.23 $0.40 Refined Vegetable Oil Rice (4% Broken) HTG HNL $1.96 $0.93 Rice (4% Broken) Mexico City Dry Beans (Black) (W) HTG Mexico MXN $1.07 $0.87 Wheat Flour Dry Beans (Red) (W) HTG MXN $0.82 $1.08 PortauPrince Dry Beans (Black) Eggs (Fresh, White) (W) Haiti HTG MXN $2.19 $1.11 Maize Meal (W) HTG MXN $0.68 $

23 Mexico City Refined sugar (W) Faizabad Rice (Low Grade) Mexico MXN Afghanistan AFN $0.66 $0.69 Refined Vegetable Oil (W) Wheat Flour (Low Quality) MXN AFN $1.13 $0.44 Rice (10% Broken) (W) MXN AFN $0.78 $0.38 Managua Dry Beans (Black) (W) Hirat Diesel Nicaragua NIO Afghanistan AFN $0.95 $0.58 Dry Beans (Red) (W) Refined Vegetable Oil NIO AFN $1.16 $1.01 Dry Beans (Tinto) (W) Rice (Low Grade) NIO AFN $1.12 $0.38 (W) Wheat Flour (Low Quality) NIO AFN $0.39 $0.42 Rice (20% Broken) (W) Central America and Caribbean NIO AFN $0.93 $0.31 Rice (4% Broken) (W) Jalalabad Rice (Low Grade) NIO Afghanistan AFN $1.00 $0.45 Central Asia Sorghum (White) (W) Wheat Flour (Low Quality) NIO AFN $0.54 $0.35 AFN $ Kabul Afghanistan Diesel AFN $0.60 Refined Vegetable Oil AFN $1.16 Rice (Low Grade) AFN $0.88 Wheat Flour (Low Quality) Kandahar Afghanistan AFN $0.37 AFN $0.38 Rice (Low Grade) AFN $

24 Kandahar Wheat Flour (Low Quality) Lahore Rice (Long Grain, IRRI6) Afghanistan AFN Pakistan PKR $0.37 $0.45 Wheat Flour AFN PKR $0.41 $0.37 Maimana Rice (Low Grade) Afghanistan AFN PKR $0.56 $0.34 Wheat Flour (Low Quality) Multan Rice (Long Grain, Basmati) AFN Pakistan PKR $0.38 $0.62 Rice (Long Grain, IRRI6) AFN PKR $0.33 $0.34 MazareSharif Diesel Wheat Flour Afghanistan AFN PKR $0.65 $0.37 Refined Vegetable Oil AFN PKR $1.15 $0.32 Rice (Low Grade) Peshawar Rice (Long Grain, Basmati) Central Asia Wheat Flour (Low Quality) AFN Pakistan PKR $0.57 $0.65 Rice (Long Grain, IRRI6) AFN PKR $0.37 $0.40 Wheat Flour AFN PKR $0.33 $0.37 Nili Rice (Low Grade) Afghanistan AFN PKR $0.91 $0.32 Wheat Flour (Low Quality) Quetta Rice (Long Grain, IRRI6) AFN Pakistan PKR 5 $0.53 $0.48 Wheat Flour AFN PKR $0.48 $0.37 Karachi Rice (Long Grain, Basmati) National Average Potatoes Pakistan PKR Tajikistan TJS 1.80 $0.67 $0.27 Rice (Long Grain, IRRI6) Wheat Flour (First Grade) PKR TJS 3.40 $0.41 $0.51 Wheat Flour PKR $0.42 PKR $ Central Asia

25 Jan10 Apr10 Jul10 Oct10 Jan11 Apr11 Jul11 Oct11 Jan12 Apr12 Jul12 Oct12 Jan13 Apr13 Jul13 Oct13 Jan14 Apr14 Jul14 Oct14 Jan15 Apr15 Jul15 Oct15 PRICE WATCH ANNEX: November International Market Prices December 31, 2015 MAIZE WHEAT International Gulf of Mexico Maize Gulf of Mexico Wheat United States (Yellow No. 2) United States No. 2, Soft Red USD 0.17 USD $0.17 $0.20 Randfontein Maize Randfontein South Africa (Yellow) South Africa ZAR (SAFEX) ZAR 3.12 (SAFEX) $0.31 $0.22 Rouën Wheat Maize France (Grade 1) (White) EUR 0.18 ZAR 3.23 $0.19 $0.23 St. Lawrence Wheat Up River Maize Canada (CWRS) Argentina ARS CAD $0.16 $0.23 Up River Wheat RICE Argentina (Trigo Pan) ARS Bangkok Rice $0.21 Thailand (100% B) THB CRUDE OIL $0.38 Rice WTI Crude Oil* (A1 Super) United States USD THB $42.70 $0.33 Brent Crude Oil* Hanoi Rice Northern Sea USD Vietnam (5% broken) $44.40 VND 7,072 Dubai Crude Oil* $0.35 Persian Gulf USD $ SORGHUM *reported in $/bbl Gulf of Mexico Sorghum United States (Yellow No. 2) USD 0.17 $ International SOYBEANS Gulf of Mexico Soybeans United States USD 0.21 $ Figure 2: Commodity prices in selected export markets SUGAR USD/MT Caribbean Sugar (Raw) (Average) USD 0.32 $ WHEAT Aktau Port Milling Wheat Kazakhstan KZT $0.20 Black Sea Milling Wheat (Average) USD $0.20 Eastern States Wheat Sources: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), World Bank USD 0.21 Australia (ASW) (standard) AUD Gulf of Mexico Wheat United States No. 2, Hard USD 0.21 $ No. 2 U.S. Yellow. Maize No. 2 U.S. Hard Red Wheat 5% broken rice, Hanoi, Vietnam Grade 1 Wheat, Rouen, France A1 Super Broken Rice, Bangkok, Thailand FEWS NET fewsnetmt@few.net FEWS NET is a USAIDfunded activity. The content of this report does not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government.

26 Jan 10 Jan 10 Jan 10 Jan 10 Jan 10 Jan 10 PRICE WATCH ANNEX 2 November 2015 Prices December 31, 2015 Figure 1. Millet prices in West Africa ( ) Figure 2. Sorghum prices in West Africa ( ) Moundou, Chad Segou, Segou centre, Mali Kaolak, Senegal Solenzo, Burkina Faso Maradi, Niger Maradi, Niger Segou, Segou centre, Mali Kano, Nigeria (W) Moundou, Chad Bobo Dioulasso, Burkina Faso West Africa Figure 3. Maize prices in West Africa ( ) Figure 4. Rice prices in West Africa ( ) Bol, Chad Malanville, Benin Bamako, Mali Dakar, Tilène, Senegal* Bobo Dioulasso, Burkina Faso Kano, Nigeria (W) Monrovia, Red Light, Liberia * * imported rice Nouakchott, Mauritania * Sources of prices in West Africa: Information System on agricultural markets (SIMA) Niger, Agricultural Market Observatory (OMA) Mali, Burkina Faso SONAGESS, Information System market (SIM) in Senegal and FEWS NET. Figure 5. Dry bean prices in East Africa ( ) Figure 6. Sorghum prices in East Africa ( ) East Africa Arusha, Tanzania (W) Eldoret, Kenya (W) Kigali City, Rwanda Masindi, Uganda (W) Al Qadarif, Sudan Kampala, Uganda (W) Dire Dawa, Ethiopia (W) Baidoa, Somalia Juba, South Sudan (FEWS NET) monitors trends in staple food prices in countries vulnerable to food insecurity. The Price Watch Annex 2 provides prices trends for key markets and staple foods monitored across FEWS NET countries and regions. The commodities with a reference (W) are wholesale prices. Otherwise, all reported prices are retail. FEWS NET fewsnetmt@fews.net FEWS NET is a USAIDfunded activity. The content of this report does not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government.