Climatic developments in the greater Danube region and challenges for the future. Kisice, Slovakia

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1 Climatic developments in the greater Danube region and challenges for the future Stuttgart, Germany Wachau, Austria Husi, Romania Tokaji, Hungary Prague, Czech Rep. Villa Yustina, Bulgaria Coast, Croatia Kisice, Slovakia Hans R. Schultz Hochschule Geisenheim Hans R. Schultz University Oplenac, Serbia A sense of place 50th degree latitude North Château Johannisberg, Geisenheim, Germany Hans R. Schultz 1

2 A sense of place Hans R. Schultz Outline Climatic Trends in the Danube region The water issue Soils, the under rated climate factor future challenges 2

3 Factors relevant for a changing climate Potential of greenhouse gases Gas CO 2 CH 4 (Methane) N 2 O nitrous oxide CFC s Persistence (years) Relative greenhouse potential Contribution to anthropogenic change (%) CO 2 (1954 = 315ppm, 2013= 400ppm) (close to 500ppm equiv.) IPCC report 2007 Stuttgart, Germany Wachau, Austria Husi, Romania Vineyard landscapes are tightly linked to climate (temperature, humidity, precipitation (amount and distribution), soil type and depth, evaporation, water use) Tokaji, Hungary Prague, Czech Rep. Villa Yustina, Bulgaria Coast, Croatia Kisice, Slovakia Hans R. Schultz Hochschule Geisenheim Hans R. Schultz University Oplenac, Serbia

The image of Viticulture Tuesday, 1st of

isothermes during the growing season (12 22 C)

(basis 2000) extension NH, reduction SH National

Climate System Model (CCSM) A1B (mid range

4 The image of Viticulture Tuesday, 1st of December 2015 The start of the Paris climate summit Global Viticultural zones Temperature isothermes during the growing season (12 22 C) Northern hemisphere (Apr. Oct.), southern hemisphere (Oct. April) Isothermes move to the poles~ km (basis 2000) extension NH, reduction SH National Center for Atmospheric Research s Community Climate System Model (CCSM) A1B (mid range scenario): 1.4 x 1.4 Lat/Lon Schultz and Jones (2010) Climate induced Historic and Future Changes in Viticulture. Journal of Wine Research 21:

5 Outline Climatic Trends in the Danube region The water issue Soils, the under rated climate factor future challenges Data analyses from 9 sites 8 sites extracted from the National Center for Environmental Information, US Geisenheim Prague Vienna Kosice Zagreb Pecs Belgrade Bucharest Sofia 5

6 average Temp. (April-Oct./Oct.-April) ( C) Geisenheim, Germany (50 Oxford, Geisenheim, England Germany (51,8 (50 Pecs, Oxford, Geisenheim, Hungary England Germany (46,0 (51,8 lat. (50 Zagreb, Pecs, Oxford, Hungary Croatia England (46,0 (45,8 (51,8 lat. Vienna, Zagreb, Pecs, Geisenheim, Hungary Austria Croatia (46,0 (48,2 Germany (45,8 lat. (50 Belgrade, Vienna, Zagreb, Oxford, Austria Croatia Serbia England (48,2 (45,8 (44,8 (51,8 lat. lat. Prague, Belgrade, Vienna, Pecs, Czeck Austria Hungary Serbia republic (48,2 (44,8 (46,0 (46 lat. (50,1 lat. lat. Sofia, Prague, Belgrade, Zagreb, Bulgaria Czeck Serbia Croatia (42,7 republic (44,8 (45,8 lat. (50,1 Bucharest, Sofia, Prague, Vienna, Bulgaria Czeck Austria Romania (42,7 republic (48,2 (44,5 lat. (50,1 lat. Kosice, Bucharest, Sofia, Bulgaria Slovakia Romania (42,7 (48,7 (44,5 lat. 10-year running mean Year Zagreb, Croatia Belgrade, Serbia Bucharest, Romania Pecs, Hungary Sofia, Bulgaria Vienna, Austria Prague, Czech Repub. Geisenheim, Germany Kosice, Slovakia Oxford, England average Temp. (April-Oct./Oct.-April) ( C) Geisenheim, Germany (50 Oxford, Geisenheim, England Germany (51,8 (50 Pecs, Oxford, Geisenheim, Hungary England Germany (46,0 (51,8 lat. (50 Zagreb, Pecs, Oxford, Hungary Croatia England (46,0 (45,8 (51,8 lat. Vienna, Zagreb, Pecs, Geisenheim, Hungary Austria Croatia (46,0 (48,2 Germany (45,8 lat. (50 Belgrade, Vienna, Zagreb, Oxford, Austria Croatia Serbia England (48,2 (45,8 (44,8 (51,8 lat. lat. Prague, Belgrade, Vienna, Pecs, Czeck Austria Hungary Serbia republic (48,2 (44,8 (46,0 (46 lat. (50,1 lat. lat. Sofia, Prague, Belgrade, Zagreb, Bulgaria Czeck Serbia Croatia (42,7 republic (44,8 (45,8 lat. (50,1 Bucharest, Sofia, Prague, Vienna, Bulgaria Czeck Austria Romania (42,7 republic (48,2 (44,5 lat. (50,1 Kosice, Bucharest, Sofia, Bulgaria Slovakia Romania (42,7 (48,7 (44,5 lat. Bordeaux, France (44,5 Global brightening period 10-year running mean Year Range of about 4 C Bordeaux, France Zagreb, Croatia Belgrade, Serbia Bucharest, Romania Pecs, Hungary Sofia, Bulgaria Vienna, Austria Prague, Czech Repub. Geisenheim, Germany Kosice, Slovakia Oxford, England 6

2003 2006 2050 1885-1925 1971-2000 2050 1885 1925 = 14.18 C 1926 1966 = 14.63 C 1967 1987 = 14.46 C 1988 2018 = 15.

7 = C = C = C = C Rheingau 2018 We only know the minimum temperature requirement, we do not know the maximum Jones et al. 2005; Climate Change 73: Current varietal suitability for the greater Danube regioen After Formayer and Goler (2013) Universität für Bodenkultur, Wien, Österreichischer Klimatag

8 Suitability change in varietal use over the next 90 years It is very likely that this will not be problematic It After Formayer and Goler (2013) Universität für Bodenkultur, Wien Outline Climatic Trends in the Danube region The water issue Soils, the under rated climate factor future challenges 8

Including the CO 2 effect on water use severe water deficit No water deficit Fraga et al.

9 Dryness indices are getting better but are still only rough indicators of current and past vulnerability What do the data say? Including the CO 2 effect on water use severe water deficit No water deficit Fraga et al. (2016) Modelling climate change impacts on viticultural yield, phenology and stress conditions in Europe. Global Change Biology 22, Summer rainfall trends? 9

hydrological summer May - October 600 summer precipitation rate (mm) 500 Geisenheim 400 300 Prague Geisenheim, Germany Pecs, Hungary 200 Zagreb, Croatia Vienna, Austria Prague, Czech Republ.

Sofia, Bularia Bucharest, Romania Bucharest 100 1940 1960 1980 2000 Year Changes in potential Evapotranspiration also play a role in water use 1000 Data 10 year running means Global brightening

10 hydrological summer May - October 600 summer precipitation rate (mm) 500 Geisenheim Prague Geisenheim, Germany Pecs, Hungary 200 Zagreb, Croatia Vienna, Austria Prague, Czech Republ. Kosice, Slovakia Year Vienna Zagreb Pecs summer precipitation rate (mm) Kosice hydrological summer May - October Belgrade Sofia Belgrade, Serbia Sofia, Bularia Bucharest, Romania Bucharest Year Changes in potential Evapotranspiration also play a role in water use 1000 Data 10 year running means Global brightening period annual pot. Evapotranspiration (mm) Geisenheim Bordeaux Year French data: DB, CLIMATIK, Agroclim, INRA; German data: Deutscher Wetterdienst; 10

11 Flood in England Wilting Pinot noir Sun burn (Germany) Danube flood in Passau June in Germany (Rheingau) 2018 wilting Pinot noir grapes Flood in Poland 2017 February flood in California Problem is the high spacial and temporal variability Hans R. Schultz Surface water run off (erosion) Difference to , 30 year mean Year Year Year Increase in surface run off (mm/year) Apr Sept Apr Sept Apr Sept Oct March Oct March Oct March Jahr Year (INKLIM III, Hofmann and Schultz unpublished) 11

12 winter rainfall trends? summer precipitation rate (mm) hydrological winter November - April Geisenheim Geisenheim, Germany Pecs, Hungary Vienna, Austria Belgrade, Serbia Prague, Czech Rep. Prague Vienna Year Zagreb Pecs summer precipitation rate (mm) Kosice hydrological winter November - April Belgrade 200 Sofia Bucharest Year Zagreb, Croatia Sofia, Bulgaria Bucharest, Romania Kosice, Slovakia 12

13 Run off, erosion and leaching: Nitrate in the ground water where does Europe stand? Dr. R. Wolter 1. Wiesbadener Grundwassertag 24. September 2014 in Wiesbaden Outline Climatic Trends in the Danube region The water issue Soils, the under rated climate factor future challenges 13

14 Climate effects on soils, increase in soil temperature (the Potsdam time series) Since 1889 strong warming May August (1m depth C!!) 1,6 1,4 *** mean trend Trend in K absolute trend ( C) 1,2 1,0 0,8 0,6 0,4 ** *** ** ** * 0,2 0,0 air soil 1m soil 2m soil 4m soil 6m soil 12m soil temperatures at different depths as compared to air temperature Böhme und Böttcher, Klimastatusbericht des Deutschen Wetterdienstes 2011 Hans R. Schultz Soils will be key for the planet and sustainability! 20 Geisenheim, Germany (50 Oxford, England (51,8 10-year running mean average Temp. (April-Oct./Oct.-April) ( C) Year Soil (1 m depth) warming rate in summer over the same time Geisenheim, Germany Oxford, England, UK Meteorological service 14

15 simulated annual total soil (root and soil) respiration rate (g C m -2 year) soil GHG emission estimation soil respiration, Geisenheim, Germany 10-year running average Projections A1 Projections A2 Projections B1 RCP 8,5 RCP 2,6 Measurements: Lehmann and Löhnertz (2014) unpublished Year the future Measurements Franck et al. (2011) New Phytologist 192, % Analysis based on: Robinet, J. (1994) Statistical study of soil respiration: calculation of present day rates and anticipation of a double CO 2 world. In: NATO ASI Series, Vol. I Soil responses to climate change. Springer, , unpublished Outline Climatic Trends in the Danube region The water issue Soils, the under rated climate factor future challenges 15

Worldwide wine risk map (James Daniell of the Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT) presented at the European Geosciences Union (EGU), Vienna)

2017) red = high, yellow = medium, green = low Most at risk: Mendoza/San Juan, Argentina Racha, Georgia Cahul, Moldova, North west Slovenia 31 Sugar

16 Worldwide wine risk map (James Daniell of the Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT) presented at the European Geosciences Union (EGU), Vienna) (Spiegel online, ) red = high, yellow = medium, green = low Most at risk: Mendoza/San Juan, Argentina Racha, Georgia Cahul, Moldova, North west Slovenia 31 Sugar and acidity development in the same vineyard since 1932 tot. acidity (g L -1 ) (tartaric eq.) year running mean acidity 10-year running mean potential alcohol Year Global brightening period pot. Alcohol ( ) 16

defoliation above the fruiting zone Stoll et al.

USA, 12. 15.7.: 93 96. Water consumption, varieties and rootstocks?

SO4 Richter 110 Grenache Grapevines also use water during the NIGHT (the higher

17 defoliation above the fruiting zone Stoll et al. (2009) In: 16 th International GiESCO Symposium, University of California, Davis, USA, : Water consumption, varieties and rootstocks? Water use at night (mmol s 1 ) Riesling in Australia Semillon Chardonnay Shiraz SO4 Richter 110 Grenache Grapevines also use water during the NIGHT (the higher the temperature, the more) and this is varietal specific Rogiers et al. (2010) J. Exp. Botany Adelaide Hills, Australia Hans R. Schultz 17

Sustainable disease management may be the

more difficult New diseases Wood diseases New

blotch disease (top left and bottom) and

2012. Pierces disease There are certainly more

mildew desaster Never before was such a disease

18 Sustainable disease management may be the greatest challenge Old problems are becomming more difficult New diseases Wood diseases New insects Cabernet Franc grapevines showing red blotch disease (top left and bottom) and harvested normal grapevine (top right), October Pierces disease There are certainly more surprises ahead 2016 was a European downy mildew desaster Never before was such a disease pressure observed Esca 35 CO 2, an experimental view into the future 18

2018 37 The Geisenheim FACE for special crops to takle the big questions Will water consumption decrease in a higher CO 2 world?

19 Grapevines in a future higher CO 2 world: The Geisenheim FACE system for special crops 6 Ringe (3 aktive, 3 passive, jeder 14m Durchmesser) 75 Pflanzen pro Ring, Cabernet Sauvignon und Riesling The Geisenheim FACE for special crops to takle the big questions Will water consumption decrease in a higher CO 2 world? How will different varieties behave (plant and fruit physiology)? soil population of micro organisms, will they be affected? gene expression of insects, what to expect? greenhouse gas emissions, where to go? 19

20 Summary The climatic developments are region specific in the greater Danube area Water will be the dominant issue in the future (both, too much and too little), we try to identify risk areas How to control erosion in a future world? This is a major challenge for sloped areas Summary How to control greenhouse gas emissions in a future world? We currently identify production options New technologies in a different context (soft pruning, minimal pruning (to delay ripening)) Cultural practices are constantly adapted The dangers of soil warming (organic matter decay, nitrogen release) 20

Summary Restart programs on rootstock biodiversity Preservation of varietal and clonal diversity Technology will help to preserve heritage and landscapes We need large experimental systems to study

21 Summary Restart programs on rootstock biodiversity Preservation of varietal and clonal diversity Technology will help to preserve heritage and landscapes We need large experimental systems to study the future Look at it differently 1ha vineyard produces 10 Mio L of oxygen, enough for 20 people, worldwide we have 7.6 Mio ha, producing enough oxygen for 121 Mio. people And: save the earth, it s the only planet with WINE! My contribution to global warming! Thanks for the opportunity to be here, and thank you for your attention 21

Hans R. Schultz Hochschule Geisenheim University. Napa, Kalifornien. Raggi Belussi, Veneto, Italy. Golan Heights, Israel.

Hans R. Schultz Hochschule Geisenheim University. Napa, Kalifornien. Raggi Belussi, Veneto, Italy. Golan Heights, Israel. Comment la viticulture européenne conçoit son adaptation au changement climatique et quelle place elle peut tenir vis à vis avis de la production mondiale dans les prochains décennies dans le contexte