Talk Outline

Transcription

1 A sense of place Climate Change and Riesling Veneto, Italy Moselle, Germany Wachau, Austria Napa Valley, California Champagne, France Château Johannisberg, Geisenheim, Germany Banyuls, France Alto Adige, Italy Claire Valley, Australia 50th degree latitude North Douro Valley, Portugal Hochschule Geisenheim University Hans R A sense of place Talk Outline State of the Climate Changing Wine Map Cool Climate Structure and Suitability Cool Climate Region Trends Potential Changes in Cool Climate Regions Interrelationships of climate and soil with Riesling quality issues 1

2 State of the Climate Global Temperature 2016 Global Temperature 2016 May had the highest temperature for any May in the 137 year period of record, at 0.95 C (1.71 F), preliminary data for June and early July show continued trend May and June 2016 mark the 13 th and 14 th consecutive month a monthly global temperature record has been broken the longest such streak since global temperature records began in

3 The global temperature history Tropics to Poles Temperature Gradient lab book.ac.uk Increased Weather/Climate Variability Changing Wine Map Arctic amplification has produced a slower jet stream, with more amplified north south waves, more extreme weather and greater swings in climate conditions from year to year, season to season, and month to month. Some indication of similar changes in the Southern Hemisphere 3

4 Exposition and slope (evapotranspiration) A New World of Wine: How the Viticultural Map is Changing Moselle, Germany Raggi Belussi, Veneto, Italy High precipitation rates and rel. High temperatures Wachau, Austria Banyuls, France Water distribution Napa, Kalifornien Access to water Golan Heights, Israel Increase in climatic variability Champagne, France Climate and production systems have characterised landscapes Claire Valley, Australia 57.7 N Alto Adige, Italy Increase in variability Decrease of precipitation in winter Douro Tal, Portugal Access to water 45.6 S General Climate Suitability Cool Climate Structure and Suitability All varieties have inherent climatic thresholds for optimum quality and production characteristics Cool climate regions have growing seasons that tend be months in length ( days frost free) and average from C, GDD, or HI Some regions can be found close to 12.0 C and tend to be dominated by hybrids Jones et al. 2005; Climate Change Hans R. 73: Schultz

5 Cool Climate (Riesling) Zones Worldwide Cool Climate Zones Worldwide April October Growing Season Average Temperatures ( C) October April Area Suitable C Represents Average Growing Season Temperatures (WorldClim database, 1 km resolution) Gregory Jones, PhD Cool Climate Zones in Europe Cool Climate Zones in North America Growing Season (Apr Oct) Average Temperatures Area Suitable C Growing Season (Apr Oct) Average Temperatures ( C) Area Suitable C Gregory Jones, PhD Represents Average Growing Season Temperatures (WorldClim database, 1 km resolution) Gregory Hans Jones, R. Schultz PhD Represents Average Growing Season Temperatures (WorldClim database, 1 km resolution) 5

6 Cool Climate Zones in Australia & NZ Growing Season (Apr Oct) Average Temperatures ( C) Area Suitable C Cool Climate Region Trends Gregory Hans Jones, R. Schultz PhD Represents Average Growing Season Temperatures (WorldClim database, 1 km resolution) Mean temp. (April-Oct./Oct.-April) ( C) Observed Climate Trends Geisenheim, Germany, 50.0 N Adelaide Hills (MB), Australia, 34.7 S Oxford, England, 51.7 N Maastrich, Netherlands, 50.9 N Aalborg, Denmark, 57.1 N Zielona Góra, Poland, 51.1 N Gothenborg, Sweden, 57.7 N Travis City, Michigan, USA, N Oxford 10-year running mean values Adelaide Hills Geisenheim Year Riesling Regions Traverse City Maastricht Zielona Góra Gothenborg Aalborg Observed Climate Trends Growing Season Average Temperature ( C, Apr-Oct NH; Oct-Apr SH) 19,0 18,0 17,0 16,0 15,0 14,0 13,0 12,0 11,0 10, Niagara Tasmania England Michigan Okanagan Central Otago Puget Sound Nova Scotia Rio Negro Malleco 10 year running means Geisenheim Okanagan Valley Traverse City Malleco, Chile 6

7 CO 2 assimilation of a vineyard is t CO 2 per ha and year Differences between locations can account for t CO 2 per ha and year Daylength (hours) 17 h 15 h 13 h 11 h 9 h The Daylength Effect Adelaide Hills, Australia, 34.7 S Aalborg, Denmark, 57.1 N Geisenheim, Germany, 50.0 N Dijon, France, 47.2 N Gothenborg, Sweden, 57.7 N Maastricht, Netherlands, 50.9 N Zielona Góra, Poland, 51.6 N 1. May 1. June 1. Nov. 1. July Max 3 hours, 20 min. Riesling range 2 hours, 15 min. 1. Aug. Traverse City, USA 1. Sept. 1. Dec. 1. Jan. 1. Feb. 1. Mar. Time during the season (Northern + Southern Hemisphere) 1. Oct. 1. Apr. Comparing Riesling regions with a reputation Yakima Valley, Washington State, USA Okanagan Valley, British Columbia, Canada Traverse City, Michigan, USA Vienna, Austria Mount Barker, Western Australia Geisenheim, Rheingau, Germany Blenheim, New Zealand Adelaide Hills, South Australia Average temperature Blenheim, New Zealand Gladstones 1992 reanalyses (26 years) Traverse City, Mich. USA Geisenheim, Germany Vienna, Austria 24 Prosser, Yakima, Wash. USA 22 Kelowna, Okanagan, Canada Prosser, Yakima, Wash., USA Adelaide Hills, Australia Traverse City, USA Traverse City, USA Prosser, 20Wash Vienna, Austria Geisenheim 18 Adelaide Hills, Austr. Geisenheim Blenheim, New Zealand 10 Okanagan V., Can. 8 average temperature ( C) northern hemis. Apr. June Aug. Oct. Apr. June Aug. Oct. southern hemis. Oct. Dec. Feb. Apr. Oct. Dec. Feb. Apr. Gladstones 1992 maximum temperature avg. maximum temperature ( C) northern hemis. Apr. June Aug. Oct. southern hemis. Oct. Dec. Feb. Apr. Blenheim, New Zealand Traverse City, USA Geisenheim, Germany Vienna, Austria Kelowna, Okanagan, Canada Prosser, Yakima, Wash., USA Adelaide Hills, Australia reanalyses (26 years) Prosser Apr. June Aug. Oct. Oct. Dec. Feb. Apr. Traverse City Vienna 7

8 Gladstones 1992 minimum temperature avg. minimum temperature ( C) Traverse City northern hemis. Apr. June Aug. Oct. southern hemis. Oct. Dec. Feb. Apr. Blenheim, New Zealand Traverse City, Mich. USA Geisenheim, Germany Vienna, Austria Kelowna, Okanagan, Canada Prosser, Yakima, Wash., USA Adelaide Hills, Australia reanalyses (26 years) Vienna Prosser Apr. June Aug. Oct. Oct. Dec. Feb. Apr. Geisenheim Day night temperature difference day-night diff. temperature ( C) Gladstones northern hemis. Apr. June Aug. Oct. southern hemis. Oct. Dec. Feb. Apr. Blenheim, New Zealand Traverse City, USA Geisenheim, Germany Vienna, Austria Kelowna, Okanagan, Canada Prosser, Yakima, Wash., USA Adelaide Hills, Australia reanalyses (26 years) Traverse City Apr. June Aug. Oct. Oct. Dec. Feb. Apr. Minimum temperature extremes ( C) Aalborg, Denmark, N;9.85 E, 3m elev. Geisenheim, Germany, N; 8.11 E, 56m elev. Zielona Góra, Poland, N; E, 123m elev. Geisenheim, 10 year running mean Zielona Góra, Poland, 10 year running mean Aalborg, Denmark, 10 year running mean Traverse City, Michigan, US, N; W, 188m elevation 5Traverse City, Michigan, US, 10 year running mean The Winter Risk Geisenheim Aalborg Zielona Góra Traverse City -30 Hardly any Vitis Vinifera survives Vine death = 20% (Gamay noir), % Chardonnay, 60% Sauvignon blanc, 90 % Cabernet Sauvignon Year Environment and Genetics is there a link? 8

9 Climate and genetics are there connections? Boss, P.K. and Thomas M. (2002) Association of dwarfism and floral induction with a grape green revolution mutation, Nature 416, genes were only expressed at night. Of those many belong to the secondary metabolism (Polyphenoles (Anthocyanins, colour), Terpenes (flavour)) Vol. 9, Conditions at night might have a direct impact on flavour and colour development (to be verified) Aromatic expression data from other studies This actually suggests that a decrease in day night temperature differences would be beneficial for flavour 250 Norisoprenoids (tropical fruit) (µ/l) August September day-night temperature difference Adapted from Tomasi, D; Gaiotti, F. (2011) I terroirs della Denominazione Valdobbiadene 9

10 Differences in Water Relationships in Different Regions avg. monthly precipitation (mm) Rainfall Gladstones northern hemis. Apr. June Aug. Oct. southern hemis. Oct. Dec. Feb. Apr. reanalyses (26 years) Blenheim, New Zealand Traverse City, Mich. USA Geisenheim, Germany Vienna, Austria Kelowna, Okanagan, Canada Prosser, Yakima, Wash., USA Adelaide Hills, Australia Okanagan V. Can. Traverse City, USA Prosser, Yakima, Wash. USA Apr. June Aug. Oct. Oct. Dec. Feb. Apr. Report on Climate Change Impacts on the US, precipitation and pot. ET (mm) 650 A (May-October) pot. ET precipitation 200 B (November-April) 275 precipitation pot. ET pot. ET meas. pot. ET sim. Star II precip. meas. precip. sim. Star II Temporal variability in the past and in the future, Cyclic variations Data and simulation for Geisenheim, Germany, 50 North Cayan et al Drought Forum, Sacramento, May Year Schultz and Hofmann (2016) The ups and downs of environmental impact on grapevines: future challenges in temperate viticulture. In: Grapevine in a changing environment: A Molecular and Ecophysiological Perspective (Eds. H. Gerós, M.M. Chaves, H. Medrano, S. Delrot) John Wiley & Sons,

11 Flood in England Sun burn in Germany. June in Germany (Rheingau) 2010 Flood in Poland Problem is the high spatial and temporal variability Hans R. Hans Schultz R. Schultz Observations and simulations (hydrological summer) potential Evapo-transpiration (ETp) (mm) precipitation (mm) precip. Oakville observed May-October ETp Oakville (Napa) 38,3 N, 122,2 W obs. ETp Avignon 43,9 N, 4,9 E obs precip. Avignon observed ETp Geisenheim 50 N, 7,9 E obs. precip. obs. 900 Oakville, Ca, USA ETp simulated precip. simulated ETp 800 ETp 700 ETp Geisenheim, D P Year Year French data: DB, CLIMATIK, Agroclim, INRA; German data: Deutscher Wetterdienst; US data: IPM set, Univ. of Calif. Davis P Avignon, F P The slope effect Slope direction/degree of slope/radiation/ Water use Moselle Valley Degree of slope Tot. Evapotranspiration (water use) (mm/year) (+81) (+207) Hans R 11

12 These differences are also one of the reasons we need specific regional based modelling efforts Expl. REMO UBA, changes in drought days minus abseline , region Rheingau, Germany Numb. of drought days ( 0.6 MPa water pot.) predawn Soils, the hidden half Marco Hofmann et Hans Reiner Schultz unpublished Soils the unknown half Our most valuable resource is a very large climate player but we do know little about it Soils are the key to sustainability We need to learn more about GHG emission and mitigation, water, fertilizer, carbon and nutrient management It takes 2000 years to build 10 cm of soil Every year we loose 24 Billion Tons of soil due to erosion (extreme events will increase this number) Expanding the role of agricultural soil GHG mitigation will require an integrated research support and implementation platform (a more intensive monitoring network is needed) Paustian et al. (2016) Climate smart soils, Vol. 532, 49 57, Nature This is 3.4 tons per person and year and is equivalent to 60 per person and year = 420 Billion per year 12

13 Climate effects on soils, strong increase in soil temperature (the Potsdam time-series) Since 1889 strong warming May-August (1m depth C!!) Trend in K absolute trend ( C) 1,6 1,4 1,2 1,0 0,8 0,6 0,4 0,2 0,0 ** *** *** mean trend air soil 1m soil 2m soil 4m soil 6m soil 12m soil temperatures at different depths as compared to air temperature Böhme und Böttcher, Klimastatusbericht des Deutschen Wetterdienstes 2011 ** ** * Simulation cumulative N-Mineralisation (kg ha -1 ) Modeling of soil nitrogen dynamics (first estimates) soil dry and Col 7 vs stony Col 9 Col 7 vs Col 10 (low organic Col 7 vs Col matter) August 1. Sept. A Löeß-clay (high in organic matter) Simulation cumulative N-Mineralisation (kg ha -1 ) 1. Oct. Day of the Year Schultz, Ehlig, Hassemer Schwarz unpublished B simulated annual total soil (root and soil) respiration rate (g C m -2 year) soil GHG emission estimation on the medium to long term we need to turn soils into a carbon sink the future soil respiration, Geisenheim, Germany 10-year running average Projections A1 Projections A2 Projections B1 RCP 8,5 RCP 2,6 Measurements Franck et al. (2011) New Phytologist 192, % This change to date equates to an additional emission Measurements: Lehmann and of roughly 1 t CO 2 Löhnertz (2014) /ha/year = for all unpublished European Year vineyards 3.5 Mio t CO 2 Potential Changes for Cool Climate (Riesling) Regions 13

14 Cool Climate Zones Worldwide +1 C Cool Climate Zones in Europe +1 C Growing Season (Apr Oct) Average Temperatures Area Warm > 15.0 C Warmer but still suitable New Area ( C) April October Growing Season Average Temperatures ( C) October April Area Warm > 15.0 C Warmer but still suitable New Area ( C) Represents ~1 C warming from the time period for Average Growing Season Temperatures, based on an A1B emission scenario for 2050 Gregory Jones, PhD Gregory Jones, PhD Represents ~1 C warming from the time period for Average Growing Season Temperatures, based on an A1B emission scenario for 2050 Cool Zones in North America +1 C Growing Season (Apr Oct) Average Temperatures ( C) Area Warm > 15.0 C Warmer but still suitable New Area ( C) Cool Climate Zones in Australia & NZ +1 C Growing Season (Apr Oct) Average Temperatures ( C) Area Suitable C Gregory Jones, PhD Represents ~1 C warming from the time period for Average Growing Season Temperatures, based on an A1B emission scenario for 2050 Gregory Hans Jones, R. Schultz PhD Represents Average Growing Season Temperatures (WorldClim database, 1 km resolution) 14

15 Grapevines in a future higher CO 2 world: The Geisenheim FACE system for special crops An experimental view into the future 6 circles (3 active, 3 passive, each 14m diameter) 75plants each circle, Cabernet Sauvignon and Riesling The Geisenheim FACE for special crops Will water consumption decrease in a higher CO 2 world? Summary 15

16 Summary Many new potential regions are emerging due to climate, but other factors need to be considered Numerous cool climate regions worldwide have average trends of 0.17 C/decade or POR warming of 1.3 C since the late 1800s Daylength and the adaptive capacity of photosynthesis are important assets for Riesling regions Summary Despite summer suitability to ripen fruit, low winter/spring temperatures will remain a risk Soils are our most valuable resource, but many factors are largely unknowngenetic expression at night? Thank You! Hans Schultz Geisenheim University 16