LA VITICOLTURA E L ENOLOGIA DEL PROSSIMO TRENTENNIO. HANS-REINER SCHULTZ Presidente Hochschule - Geisenheim

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1 LA VITICOLTURA E L ENOLOGIA DEL PROSSIMO TRENTENNIO HANS-REINER SCHULTZ Presidente Hochschule - Geisenheim

2 Main challenges for the future - Viticultural topics for the next thirty years Moselle, Germany Wachau, Austria Napa, Kalifornien Raggi Belussi, Veneto, Italy Banyuls, France Golan Heights, Israel Champagne, France Alto Adige, Italy Claire Valley, Australia Douro Tal, Portugal Hans R. Schultz Hans Reiner Schultz, Hochschule Geisenheim Hans University R. Schultz

3 One can not analyse Viticulture uncoupled from the rest of the world and the challenges for the next 30 years are difficult to estimate! The most pressing topic for the next 30 years will be the same as today! How can I sell my wine? Hans Reiner Schultz, Hochschule Geisenheim University

4 1. Climatic changes and the challenges for sustainable production (resource use, soil, water, fertilizer, diseases) 2. Minimization of environmental impact, preservation of viticultural landscapes 3. Genetic and technological progress to support points 1 and 2 4. knowledge-based production systems for all wine types (precision management) 5. Information technology and continuous decision aid Hans Reiner Schultz, Hochschule Geisenheim University

5 1. Climatic changes and the challenges for sustainable production (resource use, soil, water, fertilizer, diseases) 2. Minimization of environmental impact, preservation of viticultural landscapes 3. Genetic and technological progress to support points 1 and 2 4. knowledge-based production systems for all wine types (precision management) 5. Information technology and continuous decision aid Hans Reiner Schultz, Hochschule Geisenheim University

6 1. Climatic changes and the challenges for sustainable production (resource use, soil, water, fertilizer, diseases) 2. Minimization of environmental impact, preservation of viticultural landscapes 3. Genetic and technological progress to support points 1 and 2 4. knowledge-based production systems for all wine types (precision management) 5. Information technology and continuous decision aid Hans Reiner Schultz, Hochschule Geisenheim University

7 1. Climatic changes and the challenges for sustainable production (resource use, soil, water, fertilizer, diseases) 2. Minimization of environmental impact, preservation of viticultural landscapes 3. Genetic and technological progress to support points 1 and 2 4. knowledge-based production systems for all wine types (precision management), information technology and decision aid Hans Reiner Schultz, Hochschule Geisenheim University

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9 Exposition and slope (evapotranspiration) Moselle, Germany Wachau, Austria Access to water Napa, Kalifornien Raggi Belussi, Veneto, Italy Alto Adige, Italy High precipitation rates and rel. High temperatures Banyuls, France Water distribution Golan Heights, Israel Increase in climatic variability Champagne, France Climate and production systems have characterised landscapes Claire Valley, Australia Increase in variability Decrease of precipitation in winter Douro Tal, Portugal Hans R. Schultz Hans Reiner Schultz, Hochschule Geisenheim Hans University R. Schultz Access to water

10 Warming has occurred and continues to do so Mean temp. (April-Oct./Oct.-April) ( C) Geisenheim, Germany Adelaide Hills (MB), Australia Mount Barker, WA, Australia Adelaide Hills, Lenswood, Australia Oxford, England 10-year running mean values Mount Barker (WA) Adelaide Hills Geisenheim Oxford Hans Reiner Schultz, Hochschule Geisenheim University Year Data: Meteorological office, UK Deutscher Wetterdienst Australian Government, Bureau of Meteorology

11 Consequences and misunderstandings + 84% + 189% - 58% - 44% - 62% Climate change, wine and conservation Hannah et al. 2013,

12 grapevine/climate / maturity grouping average Temp. Apr.-Oct. / Oct.-Apr. The temperature misunderstanding Rheingau Burgundy Rheingau Burgundy ? Bolzano Bolzano Côtes (17,8 ) du 18,9 Rhone Côtes du Rhone Response of OIV-group climate: V. Leeuwen, H.R. Schultz, I.G. Cortazar-Autauri, E. Dûchene, N. Ollat, P. Pieri, B. Bois, J.-P. Goutouly, H. Quinol, J.-M. Touzard, A.C. Malheiro, L. Bavaresco, S. Delrot Why climate change will not dramatically decrease viticultural suitability in main wine-producing areas by 2050 (2013) PNAS, , 1-2 Classification according to Jones et al. 2005; Climate Change 73:

13 Cool Climate Zones in Europe +1 C Growing Season (Apr-Oct) Average Temperatures Area Too Warm > 15.0 C Warmer but still suitable New Area ( C) Gregory Jones, PhD Represents ~1 C warming from the time period for Average Growing Season Temperatures, based on an A1B emission scenario for 2050

14 Warming has occurred and continues to do so Mean temp. (April-Oct./Oct.-April) ( C) Geisenheim, Germany Adelaide Hills (MB), Australia Mount Barker, WA, Australia Adelaide Hills, Lenswood, Australia Oxford, England 10-year running mean values Mount Barker (WA) Adelaide Hills Riesling Regions Geisenheim Oxford Hans R. Schultz Year Data: Meteorological office, UK Deutscher Wetterdienst Australian Government, Bureau of Meteorology

15 We need to research the plasticity of varieties more Sadras, Schultz, Girona, Marsal (2012): FAO crop responses to water

16 Temperature and the water cycle on earth are coupled Hans R. Schultz

17 global problem water (too little and too much) 70% in agriculture today (but we would need Mio. ha more) Without climate change + 11% water use only for biomass production by 2050 World fruit production in the last 20 years has increased to 635 Mio T. Grapes are worldwide Nr. 3, but number 1 in value 1/3 of all plant-based foods are not consumable and are descarded kg/person/year Hans Reiner Schultz, Hochschule Geisenheim University

18 Less than 1% of the world s fresh water resources is usable and (70% of that goes to agriculture, 10% domestic, 20% industrial) Saving just 15% of agricultural water use will more than double the available water for domestic use By irrigation method: 2% is sprinkler irrigation, 4% is drip irrigation, 15% other methods, 79% is flood irrigation Will Viticulture need more water in the future? Hans Reiner Schultz, Hochschule Geisenheim University

19 Societal behaviour stresses our resources Europe and the USA

20 The global water problem ca. 100kg/person/year not suitable for consumption or wasted 106 Billion kg/year Europe and the USA have together Billion people (EU 743 Mio., USA 320 Mio.) The amount of water needed per kg approx Liter Billion liter/year Billion m 3 Expl. for the entire corn (maize) production on earth 550 Billion m 3 water are needed (approx. 10 % of the global water demand for field crops) (FAO statistics) That means that we waste about 1/5 of this water alone in the EU and the US!

21 Warmer = more water use - but how much? The Clausius-Clapeyron relationship tells us, a 1 K (or 1 C) warming at 15 C means about a 7% increase in evaporation but it also means a 1-2% increase in precipitation! Over 50 years 2 C warming = 14% more evapotranspiration (expl. Instead of 600mm = 684mm). Therefore regional effects need to be studied carefully. Hans R. Schultz

22 precipitation and pot. ET (mm) A (May-October) pot. ET precipitation B (November-April) 275 precipitation pot. ET 200 pot. ET meas. pot. ET sim. Star II precip. meas. precip. sim. Star II Temporal variability in the past and in the future Cyclic variations Data and simulation for Geisenheim, Germany, 50 North Year Schultz and Hofmann unpublished Hans Reiner Schultz, Hochschule Geisenheim University

23 Flood in England Flood in Poland Sunburn in Germany, Austria. June in Germany (Rheingau) Problem is high spacial + temporal variabily Hans R. Schultz Hans Reiner Schultz, Hochschule Geisenheim University

24 Observations and simulations (hydrological summer) potential Evapo-transpiration (ETp) (mm) precipitation (mm) May-October ETp Geisenheim 50 N, 7,9 E obs. precip. obs. ETp simulated precip. simulated P ETp precip. Oakville observed ETp Oakville (Napa) 38,3 N, 122,2 W obs. ETp Avignon 43,9 N, 4,9 E obs precip. Avignon observed P ETp P ETp Year Hans R. Schultz Year French data: DB, CLIMATIK, Agroclim, INRA German data: Deutscher Wetterdienst US data: IPM set, Univ. of Calif. Davis 0

25 Yield Diminishing yields in Australia But also in other areas (white grapes) Yield (t/ha) State of Hesse Vintage Webb et al nature climate change 26 February

26 We need water status predictions for whole viticultural areas! Expl. REMO-UBA, changes in drought stress days, minus , Rheingau area Germany Increase in the number of drought stress days Hans Reiner Schultz, Hochschule Geisenheim University Marco Hofmann and Hans Reiner Schultz unpublished

27 The rootstock question needs to be newly adressed Riparia Richter C warm Riparia 31.5 C cool Richter110 The Geisenheim Population Phenotypic Variance Large spectrum of biotypes V. berlandieri approx Joachim Schmid, Institut für Rebenzüchtung, Hochschule Geisenheim

28 Europe has only a very limited infrastructure for irrigation Changes in rootstocks? SO4 Richter 110 Riesling in Australia Hans R. Schultz, Geisenheim Adelaide Hills, Australia

29 To be capable to answer many future question: The Geisenheim FACE system for special crops 6-circles (3 active, 3 passive, each 14m diameter) 75plants each circle, Cabernet Sauvignon and Riesling

30 The Geisenheim FACE for special crops

31 1. Climatic changes and the challenges for sustainable production (resource use, soil, water, fertilizer) 2. Minimization of environmental impact, preservation of viticultural landscapes 3. Genetic and technological progress to support points 1 and 2 4. knowledge-based production systems for all wine types (precision management) 5. Information technology and continuous decision aid Hans Reiner Schultz, Hochschule Geisenheim University

32 The below-ground story the hidden half! Hans Reiner Schultz, Hochschule Geisenheim University

33 2. Soils the unknown half Our most valuable resource is a very large climate player but we do know little about it Expanding the role of agricultural soil GHG mitigation will require an integrated research support and implementation platform (a more intensive monitoring network is needed) Paustian et al. (2016) Climate-smart soils, Vol. 532, 49-57, Nature Hans R. Schultz

34 2. Soils are the key to sustainability We need to learn more about GHG emission and mitigation, water, fertilizer, carbon and nutrient management It takes 2000 years to build 10 cm of soil Every year we loose 24 Billion Tons of soil due to erosion (extreme events will increase this number) This is 3.4 tons per person and year and is equivalent to 60 per person and year = 420 Billion per year

35 Trend in K Climate effects on soils, strong increase in soil temperature (the Potsdam time-series) Since 1889 strong warming May-August (1m depth C!!) 1,6 1,4 *** mean trend absolute trend ( C) 1,2 1,0 0,8 0,6 0,4 ** *** ** ** * 0,2 0,0 air soil 1m soil 2m soil 4m soil 6m soil 12m soil temperatures at different depths as compared to air temperature Böhme und Böttcher, Klimastatusbericht des Deutschen Wetterdienstes 2011 Hans R. Schultz Hans R. Schultz

36 soil GHG emission estimation simulated annual soil respiration rate (g C m -2 year) soil respiration, Geisenheim, Germany 10-year running average Projections A1 Projections A2 Projections B1 RCP 8,5 RCP 2, Year the future + 15 % This change to date equates to an additional emission of roughly 1 t CO 2 /ha/year = for all European vineyards 3.5 Mio t CO 2

37 Does Viticulture have an impact on the biodiversity of the environment? Climate change, wine and conservation Hannah et al. 2013, Hans Reiner Schultz, Hochschule Geisenheim University

38 It is extremely important to develop and protect biological diversity in the vineyard Species impoverished cover crop Quality of cover crop Erosion protection Management after precipitation Slope mechanization Shallow rooting zone Biodiversity Nitrogen fixation Protection of beneficial arthropods Organic material Deep rooting zone Hans Reiner Schultz, Hochschule Geisenheim University Species enriched rotation cover crop Source: Randolf Kauer, Hochschule Geisenheim

39 Environmentally sustainable disease management, a big challenge Old problems aggravating New emerging diseases Wood diseases New insects There will be more surprises in the future Cabernet Franc grapevines showing red blotch disease (top left and bottom) and harvested normal grapevine (top right), October Hans Reiner Schultz, Hochschule Geisenheim University Pierces disease Esca

40 But: Viticulture is highly intensive in plant protection measures! But we do hardly use disease tolerant varieties Hans R. Schultz

41 1. Climatic changes and the challenges for sustainable production (resource use, soil, water, fertilizer) 2. Minimization of environmental impact, preservation of viticultural landscapes 3. Genetic and technological progress to support points 1 and 2 4. knowledge-based production systems for all wine types (precision management) 5. Information technology and continuous decision aid Hans Reiner Schultz, Hochschule Geisenheim University

42 1. Genetic progress: We have already achieved a large clonal and varietal variability but the potential is largely unused Expl. Italy, around 400 varieties in production Expl. French varietal catalogue (Pinot noir) 48 clones (318 varieties / 820 clone) Catalogue des variétés et clones de vigne en France Expl. German varietal catalogue 67 clones of Riesling (from these 47 Gm) Hans Reiner Schultz, Hochschule Geisenheim University Gm 352 Gm 110

43 Clones (in this case Pinot noir) to reduce environmental impact cl Gm (loose) cl Gm (small) Ernst Rühl, Institut für Rebenzüchtung, Hochschule Geisenheim

44 The molecular biology of the future?: CIS Genetics and CRISPR/Cas are a revolution in plant breeding No foreign DNA. Not distuinguishable from natural mutations. Hans R. Schultz

45 Environmental sustainable application technologies Reduction of fungicides in Viticulture through radiation with UV-C Laboratory-, Greenhouse and field experiments on the effects on grape pathogens: - Plasmopara viticola (downey mildew) - Erysiphe necator (powdery mildew) - Botrytis cinerea (grey rot) - Guignardia bidwellii (black rot) Reduction in chemical treatments with probably a wide range of applications. Investigations on the stress physiology and unknown oenological effects Beate Berkelmann-Löhnertz, Institut für Phytomedizin, Hochschule Geisenheim

46 Technological progress will be essential for the future PhenoBot, Institut für Technik (HSGM) Geisi, Institut für Technik (HSGM) Hans-Peter Schwarz, Institut für Technik, Hochschule Geisenheim

47 Minimal Pruning Systems in a conventional vineyard 1 Mai 2014 Hans Reiner Schultz, Hochschule Geisenheim University

48 Canopy before bloom, experimental set-up, Geisenheim Spalier (Vertical shoot positioning) Minimal pruning Spalier Hans Reiner Schultz, Hochschule Geisenheim University

49 New combinations between production system and technology Minimal pruning (extensive) Terraces (intensive) Hans R. Schultz Hans Reiner Schultz, Hochschule Geisenheim University

50 Hans-Peter Schwarz, Institut für Technik, Hochschule

51 1. Climatic changes and the challenges for sustainable production (resource use, soil, water, fertilizer, diseases) 2. Minimization of environmental impact, preservation of viticultural landscapes 3. Genetic and technological progress to support points 1 and 2 4. knowledge-based production systems for all wine types (precision management), information technology and decision aid Hans Reiner Schultz, Hochschule Geisenheim University

52 Smart Viticulture Manfred Stoll, Hochschule Geisenheim University

53 Manfred Stoll, Hochschule Geisenheim University Production platforms - decision support (here: geokonzept ) production planning drones Positioning Batteries Remote control Camera systems

54 Smart Viticulture - decision support RGB NIR False colours: canopy height Manfred Stoll, Hochschule Geisenheim University

55 Weather applications, production applications, use of pesticide applications a.s.o. Hans Reiner Schultz, Hochschule Geisenheim University

56 Managing ripeness Defoliation possibilities KMW Difference 4Brix Zoning for uniform quality Hans Reiner Schultz, Hochschule Geisenheim University

57 Thank you for your attention and lets see what the next 30 years will bring Hans Reiner Schultz, Hochschule Geisenheim University