Almond Insights

Transcription

1 Almond Insights

2 This publication was produced by the Almond Board of Australia. For further information contact: ALMOND BOARD OF AUSTRALIA PO Box 1507, LOXTON SA 5333 Australia T E admin@australianalmonds.com.au This project was partially funded by the Australian Government through Horticulture Innovation Australia Limited.

3 Contents Executive Summary 5 Plantings 6 Production 9 Marketing Australian Almonds 11 Supply & Demand 12 Consumption 14 World Export Destinations 15 Top 10 Export Regions 16 Foreign Exchange 17 Global 17 Almond Marketers 19 Page 3

4 The Role of the Almond Board of Australia The Almond Board of Australia is guiding the industry s development by implementing the strategic plan for Australian almonds. The Plan involves building domestic consumption, developing brand awareness of Australian almonds in export markets and addressing productivity issues such as: yield improvement; input costs and efficiency; and better managing risk from weather, disease, insects and birds. To achieve these strategies, the ABA relies on funding for specific projects from the grower R&D levy matched by the Commonwealth. Horticulture Innovation Australia Ltd s managed projects deliver the outputs of knowledge and technology required to implement the industry s strategic plan which is overseen by the ABA Board and represents 99% of production and levies paid. The ABA also facilitates an enhanced operating environment for industry stakeholders by providing advocacy on industry wide issues such as market access, biosecurity, research, water, energy, labour, pollination, and transport. 4 Page

5 Executive Summary A record crop of 82,509 tonnes was grown in Over the past five years export sales have increased 481%. In 2015 almond sales represented more than a third of the value of all Australian horticultural exports. Domestic and overseas demand for Australian almonds grew in the past year, with the industry achieving a farmgate value of $1 billion for the first time as record prices were achieved. Sales on the domestic market increased 4% during the marketing year from March 2015 to February 2016, and totalled 22,915 tonnes. Of this, 21,208 tonnes were Australian almonds and 1,707 tonnes were imported. Over the past five years domestic sales have increased 46%. The range of almond products and their versatile use, from in-shell to almond milk, saw almonds used in 297 new products appearing on Australian supermarket shelves in The Australian almond industry has come a very long way in a short period of time with massive increases in production since the planting boom of the mid 2000s. In 2015, almonds gross value of production was more than 10% of Australian horticulture s GVP and the industry is undergoing a further period of orchard expansion. The information contained in this booklet provides industry stakeholders, government and those in the broader community with the key statistics on the productive capacity, crops, markets and demand for Australian almonds within the global context. The booklet is prepared on a marketing year basis spanning March to February and based on data provided to the ABA from growers, processors and marketers on a confidential basis. Information was also sourced from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), Australian Nut Industry Council (ANIC), International Nut and Dried Fruit Council (INC) and the Almond Board of California (ABC). This assistance is gratefully acknowledged. Neale Bennett Chair Ross Skinner CEO Page 5

6 ha = Plantings Almonds were first planted in Australia on Kangaroo Island in 1836 and soon spread to private gardens throughout Adelaide and other South Australian towns due to the state s suitable Mediterranean climate. The scale of orchard plantings has changed dramatically since then as Australia s Murray River communities have the ideal growing conditions for growing almonds. Australian almonds now make up about 8% of global and most of domestic supply. According to ABA data there are around 150 Australian almond growing enterprises and of those 68% consist of properties less than 50 hectares. Orchard Plantings by Region Industry Total 31,115 ha 1. Sunraysia (VIC) 64% 19,798 ha 3. Riverina (NSW) 12% 3,824 ha Riverland (SA) 20% 6,081ha 4. Swan Region (WA) 2% 753 ha 5. Adelaide Plains (SA) 2% 709 ha 6 Page 1,000 ha

7 Plantings Orchard Area Planted by Year (Hectares) 15,000 12,500 Hectares 10,000 7,500 5,000 2,500 Orchard Plantings Bearing Status by Year 0 Orchard Plantings Bearing Status by Year Non-bearing 32,000 30,000 Bearing Bearing Pre 2006 Pre 06 15, , , , , , ,450 = 250 ha Non-Bearing 28,000 26,000 24,000 22,000 Hectares 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12, Bearing: 28,660 ha Non Bearing: 2,455 ha Since 2001 the total area planted to almonds has increased from 5,232 hectares to 31,115 hectares in The planting of almond trees reached a peak in 2007 when 7,371 hectares of orchard were established. In the ensuing eight-year period, plantings slowed with a total of 7,935 hectares added. However, this has changed with significant new plantings occurring and planned for the next few years. 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, Page 7

8 Plantings Current Almond Plantings - Major Varieties (Hectares) Price 11.3% 3,518 ha Other 7.3% 2,266 ha Carmel 31.4% 9,756 ha Nonpareil 50.1% 15,575 ha Current Almond Plantings by Variety (Hectares) Variety Pre TOTAL Non Bearing Maturing Fully Mature Butte Carmel 3,872 1,852 2, , ,570 Fritz Independence Johnston Keane Monterey , NePlus Nonpareil 6,333 2,757 3, ,575 1,115 1,287 13,172 Other Padre Peerless Price 1, , ,286 WoodColony Total Plantings 12,444 5,448 6,359 1, , ,450 31,115 2,455 2,543 26,117 % by year 40% 18% 20% 6% 1% 2% 5% -% 1% 2% 5% 7.9% 8.2% 83.9% 8 Page

9 ha = Production Australian production is centered in the Murray Valley, eastward from the Northern Adelaide Plains to the Riverland, Sunraysia and Riverina regions. Some smaller orchards still remain at Willunga, the pioneering region for Australian almonds and the most recent area to be planted is the Swan region of Western Australia. Almond trees take three years to bear a crop and around seven years to reach mature production levels at conventional tree spacing. Presently 2,455 hectares or 7.9% of orchard plantings are not yet bearing a crop, and 8.2% of bearing trees are not yet fully mature. The industry s production will continue to trend upwards in coming years towards 90,000 tonnes regardless of future plantings and may reach 130,000 tonnes by 2025 if development continues as indicated. 16,001 Almond Production - Past & Present (Kernel) 26,006 26,882 37,626 39,081 36,403 49,585 65,060 73,361 82,931 80,140 82,509 89,292 84,787 97,334 = 1,000t 2015 Almond Productionby State (Kernel) Victoria 19% 68% 56,043t Total 82,509 Tonnes South Australia 16,028t New South Wales 13% 10,438t 2,000t Page 9

10 Production The annual crop faces risks from pests, fungal diseases, poor cross pollination and rain during harvest. Good orchard management in terms of irrigation and nutrition are also critical to maximising the potential crop. Australia s almond growers are world leaders in water use efficiency, with over 90% of almond orchards under drip systems that allow for precise timing and rates of irrigation. Almonds have become an attractive crop for investors because the industry has proven to be profitable and stable over the longer term. Reasons for this include the ability to develop and manage orchards on a larger scale, the adoption of best available growing technologies and a cohesiveness within industry to work in a co-operative manner to develop markets and address issues of concern. 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 2015 Kernel Size by Variety (kernels per ounce) Nonpareil Carmel Price 0% Smaller Larger 10 Page 16/18 18/20 20/22 23/25 25/27 27/30 30/35 35/40 Other Nonpareil 0.2% 1.4% 7.0% 28.3% 29.0% 20.0% 10.5% 2.7% 0.9% Carmel 0.1% 0.6% 2.1% 12.9% 32.1% 33.0% 15.6% 2.4% 1.2% Price 0.0% 0.3% 2.4% 12.8% 17.3% 24.5% 26.1% 14.3% 2.3% TOTAL 0.1% 1.0% 4.8% 21.1% 29.2% 25.3% 13.8% 3.6% 1.1% Production by Variety (Kernel) Variety Baxendale 163 1% 230 1% 168 1% 173 0% 160 0% 105 0% 21 0% 118 0% 1,103 2% 97 0% Carmel 4,246 27% 7,383 27% 7,996 31% 11,681 32% 10,561 27% 14,091 37% 15,718 32% 26,922 37% 19,834 31% 28,495 35% Chellaston 59 0% 62 0% 23 0% 33 0% 15 0% 24 0% 4 0% 18 0% 3 0% 7 0% Fritz 249 2% 331 1% 240 1% 151 0% 198 1% 85 0% 108 0% 99 0% 108 0% 87 0% Johnston 30 0% 36 0% 35 0% 47 0% 24 0% 36 0% 13 0% 31 0% 11 0% 24 0% Keane 112 1% 132 0% 70 0% 69 0% 79 0% 65 0% 71 0% 112 0% 103 0% 141 0% Mission 273 2% 314 1% 251 1% 196 1% 156 0% 146 0% 23 0% 133 0% 43 0% 75 0% Monterey 5 0% 24 0% 42 0% 97 0% 181 0% 328 1% 429 1% 689 1% 704 1% 1,146 1% Ne Plus 594 4% 823 3% 527 2% 443 1% 425 1% 290 1% 276 1% 409 1% 453 1% 278 0% Nonpareil 7,989 50% 13,751 51% 13,376 51% 18,686 51% 21,219 54% 17,154 46% 25,766 52% 36,305 50% 33,772 52% 40,523 49% Peerless 576 4% 936 3% 597 2% 693 2% 747 2% 765 2% 715 1% 949 1% 970 1% 757 1% Price 903 6% 2,037 8% 2,338 9% 4,023 11% 3,936 10% 4,196 11% 5,796 12% 7,212 10% 7,124 11% 7,506 9% Other* 802 5% 824 3% 342 1% 112 0% 1,379 4% 340 1% 645 1% 277 0% 629 1% 3,373 4% Total 16, % 26, % 26, % 36, % 39, % 37, % 49, % 73, % 64, % 82, %

11 Marketing Australian Almonds Contribution to Australian Tree Nut Production % 2015 Macadamias 34% Walnuts 5% Others 4% Almonds 57% Source: ANIC A key feature of our Export Market Development Program is our collaborative work in marketing the brand Australian Almonds in our export markets. International programs are strategically focused on expanding almond consumption in priority markets to optimise returns. During 2015/16, the industry exhibited at major international trade fairs covering both current major markets and potential growth regions at events in Germany, the UAE, Japan, Korea, and China attracting key customers from Europe, India, the Middle East, and Asia. Trade education regarding Australia s productive capacity, good growing environment and agricultural practices are important components of our market development program, enabling continued market growth. The continuing goods news on the health benefits from eating almonds is also a major driver of consumer demand. With more than 70% of Australia s almonds exported, the ABA works closely with industry and government representatives to identify and recommend solutions to issues that could impact on almond export sales. In order to stimulate top-of-mind consumer awareness on the domestic market and encourage greater consumption, the ABA conducts a promotion program involving media advertising, PR and social media. Almonds remain the #1 nut in global new product introductions since 2007 Page 11

12 Supply & Demand Middle East & Africa 13% Americas 7% Exports by Region (2015 Marketing Year) Europe 40% Exports 59,300 T 19% on previous year Imports 1,708 T 20% on previous year Asia Pacific Oceania 40% Exports by Type (2015 Marketing Year) 2015 Production 82,509 T Domestic Supply 21,208 T 6.5% on previous year (exluding imports) 2015 Australian Consumption rose 4% to 971g per person Inshell 36% Kernel 64% In 2015 almonds remained Australia s #1 Horticultural Export by Value The almond industry is growing very rapidly in terms of production and value. Global almond production has more than doubled since 2004 to 1.1 million tonnes in The rapid growth in local production has meant the supply of Australian almonds now far exceeds consumption within the domestic market. For every tonne sold in Australia, nearly three tonnes are exported. Consumer demand for almonds continues to increase globally and this trend is expected to continue due to the positive almond health message and growth of incomes, particularly in Asia and the Middle East. 12 Page The rapid rise in the global price during 2015 was matched by a rapid decline in sales as the principles of Economics 101 came to the fore. Price rises do slow demand.

13 Supply & Demand Australian Export & Domestic Supply (Marketing Year) Kernel equivalent 1,250 14, / /09 15, ,355 Imports 2009/ /10 Domestic Supply Exports 24,132 14,546 1, / /11 21,315 1,861 14, / /12 24,483 2,847 17,350 1,946 18, / /13 31, / /14 48,788 2,127 19,905 1,708 21, / /15 49, / /16 59, ,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 Tonnes 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000 55,000 60,000 = 500 t Page 13

14 Consumption Consumer demand for almonds continues to increase strongly, both domestically and globally, in the absence of significant price rises. In the past five years Australian consumption has risen by more than 40%, whilst global demand has doubled in the past decade. This trend is expected to continue as living standards in developing countries rise, the range of new products using almonds expands rapidly and consumers turn to healthy food products. As almonds can be processed into a range of products they are used as an ingredient in many supermarket products to provide flavour, texture and a healthy image. Almonds have remained the number one nut in global new product introductions since 2007 and in 2015, 297 new products were introduced to Australian supermarket shelves containing almonds as an ingredient. These new products appeared in categories including snacks, breakfast cereals, baking, confectionery and dairy products. Almonds are an excellent source of protein, vitamin E, dietary fibre and monounsaturated fat which has been associated with substantially decreased risk of heart disease, diabetes, and cancer. Australian s are close to consuming one kilogram of almonds for every man, woman and child. This is one of the highest per capita consumptions in the world, and is still increasing at a strong rate. Forms of Australian Almonds 1,000g Australian Consumption Growth (g/person kernel) 750g Kernel Whole Blanched grams per person 500g Natural Sliced In Shell Blanched Sliced 250g 0g 14 Page g g g g g g g g = 50g Sources: ABA, ABS Slivered Meal

15 ASIA PACIFIC World Export Destinations Inshell (Tonnes) Inshell $AUD Kernel (Tonnes) Kernel $AUD TOTAL (Tonnes) TOTAL $AUD 2015 Marketing Year % Change from 2014 MY Northeast Asia China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) 2.55 $ 29, $ 1,446, $ 1,475, % Hong Kong (SAR of China) $ 6,751,073 1, $17,116,590 1, $23,867,663 65% Japan $ 5,693, $ 5,693, % Korea, Republic of $470, $ 6,267, $ 6,737, % Total Northeast Asia $ 7,252,442 2, $30,524,854 2, $37,777, % Southeast Asia Indonesia $ 1,580, $ 1,580, % Malaysia $417, $ 1,090, $ 1,508,331-33% Singapore $ 4,031, $ 4,031,781 28% Thailand $206,014 1, $19,751,304 1, $19,957,318 33% Viet Nam $ 9,497, $ 2,399, $11,896, % Total Southeast Asia $ 10,121,198 2, $28,872,221 2, $38,993,419 87% South/Central Asia India 15, $ 193,679, $ 4,238,841 15, $ 197,918,825 39% Total South/Central Asia 15, $ 193,679, $4,376,828 15, $198,056,812 40% Australasia/Oceania New Zealand 0.18 $3,220 1, $22,977,609 1, $22,980,829 39% Total Australasia/Oceania 0.39 $7,958 1, $22,999,358 1, $23,007,316 39% TOTAL ASIA PACIFIC 16, $ 211,061,582 6, $86,773,261 23, $297,834,843 51% EUROPE Western Europe Belgium $ 6,317, $ 6,317,705 42% Denmark $ 5,752, $ 5,752,739 90% France - - 1, $14,636,240 1, $14,636,240 14% Germany $201,309 5, $67,871,535 5, $68,072,844 67% Greece $ 3,814, $ 3,814,417 75% Italy $550,875 2, $31,253,014 2, $31,803,889-1% Netherlands $629,693 1, $23,304,554 1, $23,934,247 0% Norway $ 2,551, $ 2,551,417-62% Spain $837,733 9, $ 102,815,547 9, $ 103,653,280 21% Sweden $ 7,120, $ 7,120,006-31% Switzerland $ 3,932, $ 3,932,561-12% United Kingdom - - 1, $16,952,650 1, $16,952,650 89% Total Western Europe $ 2,223,530 23, $286,600,491 23, $288,824,021 22% Central & Eastern Europe Croatia $ 1,066, $ 1,066,404-19% Poland $ 5,606, $ 5,606,283-4% Total Central & Eastern Europe $8,173, $8,173,143-7% TOTAL EUROPE $2,223, , $294,773,634 24, $296,997,164 21% MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA Middle East Jordan $ 1,034, $ 1,034, % Lebanon $ 2,632, $ 2,632,474-51% Saudi Arabia $210, $ 6,187, $ 6,397, % Turkey $ 1,210, $ 1,210,970-87% United Arab Emirates $766,639 5, $71,966,805 5, $72,733,444 28% Total Middle East $976,875 6, $83,032,051 6, $84,008,926 10% North Africa Egypt $ 1,819, $ 1,819,868-52% Tunisia $ 4,005, $ 4,005,996 13% Total North Africa $5,961, $5,961,967-50% Sub-Saharan Africa South Africa $ 3,045, $ 3,045,925 94% Total Sub-Saharan Africa $3,131, $3,131,230 91% TOTAL MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA $976,875 7, $92,125,248 7, $93,102,123 3% AMERICAS United States United States of America - - 4, $51,071,770 4, $51,071,770-34% Total United States - - 4, $51,071,770 4, ,071,770-34% TOTAL AMERICAS - - 4, $51,128,170 4, ,128,170-35% *Destinations with sales above 50 Tonnes Shown WORLD TOTAL 16,877 $ 214,261,987 42,424 $524,800,313 59,300 $739,062,300 19% Source: ABS, ABA Page 15

16 Major Export Regions 2015 Marketing Year Fifty countries now buy Australian almonds, with India being Australia s largest overseas market. With their dynamic economies and large populations of increasingly prosperous and health conscious consumers, Indian and Asian markets will continue to import more almonds well into the future. These markets received record export shipments from Australia in the 2015 marketing year and India remained our largest export destination. Free trade agreements with Japan, Korea and China assisted sales to these countries and Asian exports increased from 6% to 10% of total Australian export sales during the year. An increase of 1161% in sales moved Japan from thirty-sixth position to nineteenth in terms of value. With this FTA driven market growth potential in mind, the ABA s Export Marketing Strategy has invested in these countries as priority development markets. United States $51.1 million 7% Europe $297 million 40% Northeast Asia $37.8 million 5% Middle East $84 million 11% South/Central Asia $198.1 million 27% Africa $8.9 million 1.4% Southeast Asia $38.9 million 5% Total Export Value $739 million Australasia/ Oceania $23 million 3% 16 Page

17 Foreign Exchange Global As the Californian almond industry supplies 80% of the world s demand and the global almond price is quoted in US dollars per pound, the export return for Australian almonds in our local currency is heavily influenced by the prevailing exchange rate between the A$ and the US$. A strong Australian dollar delivers lower returns for almond exports, whilst the weaker A$ delivers better returns once the US$ price is converted. In June 2013, the Australian dollar fell below parity for the first time since September 2010 and has remained this way since. The weaker A$ is one reason market returns have improved in recent years. California Almond Exports by Region % 2014/15 Central/Eastern Europe 1% Middle East/ Africa 10% Asia Pacific 24% Latin America/Caribbean 1% North America 38.0% AUD vs USD $1.10 Western Europe 26% $1.05 Source: ABC USD $1.00 $0.95 $0.90 $0.85 $0.80 $0.75 $0.70 $0.65 $ AUD While Australian almonds are typically harvested during the months of February to April each year, harvesting of northern hemisphere almonds typically occurs between August to October. Californian almond shipments (sales) for each annual crop are therefore recorded starting in the month of August through to July each year. In 2015, California entered their fourth year of drought, which has impacted on yields, quality and operating costs. Despite improved rainfall and snowpack in California during their Winter, the US industry will enter their new crop marketing year with nearly 60% of California being categorized as being in severe, extreme or exceptional drought. The objective US crop estimate for 2016 forecasts production at 2.05 billion pounds of kernel or 930,000 tonnes. This is almost an 8% increase on last year s crop following a good pollination period and new plantings coming into production. Year New Plantings Total Industry , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,270* 449,201* Source: ABC, USDA Page 17

18 Global Spain 6.1% Australia 7.7% USA 78.9%* World Production 2015 Others 4.9% Chile 1.2% Turkey 1.2% Tonnes 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000, , , , , , ,000 World Almond Supply vs Demand Supply Consumption Production Carry-Out 200, , Source: ABC *US 2014 Crop Production figures as at June Global Almond Production (Kernel) Country lbs (mill) Tonnes lbs (mill) Tonnes lbs (mill) Tonnes lbs (mill) Tonnes lbs (mill) Tonnes lbs (mill) Tonnes lbs (mill) Tonnes lbs (mill) Tonnes lbs (mill) Tonnes lbs (mill) Tonnes lbs (mill) Tonnes Chile 10 4, , , , , , , , , , ,000 China 2 1, , , , , , Greece 35 16, , , , , , , , , , ,000 India 3 1, , , , , , , , Iran 22 10, , , , , , , , , , ,000 Italy 33 15, , , , , , , , , , ,500 Morocco 18 8, , , , , , , , , , ,000 Spain , , , , , , , , , , ,957 Syria 15 7, , , , , , , , Tunisia 18 8, , , , , , , , , , ,000 Turkey 31 14, , , , , , , , , , ,000 Other Countries 62 28, , , , , , , , , , Total , , , , , , , , , , ,457 United States , ,540 1, ,527 1, ,318 1, ,370 1, ,706 1, ,539 2, ,393 1, ,022 2, ,585 1, ,218 Australia 36 16, , , , , , , , , , ,509 TOTAL World 1, ,766 1, ,941 1, ,556 1, ,424 2, ,323 1, ,036 2, ,565 2, ,141,278 2, ,059,382 2, ,139,394 2, ,075,184 Sources: ABA, ABC, INC, USDA 18 Page

19 Almond Marketers Almondco Australia Ltd Sturt Highway, PO Box 1744, Renmark SA 5341 Ph: Fax: Enquiries: sales@almondco.com.au Bright Light Agribusiness Pty Ltd Unit 7/435 Williamstown Road, Port Melbourne VIC 3207 Ph: (03) Enquiries: jackl@acapacific.com.au Nut Producers Australia Ltd 249 Wright Street, Adelaide SA 5000 Ph: Fax: Enquiries: nuts@nutproducers.com.au Olam Orchards Australia 55 Wyandra Street, Newstead QLD 4006 Ph: Fax: Select Harvests Ltd 360 Settlement Road, Thomastown VIC 3074 Ph: Fax: Enquiries: info@selectharvests.com.au Page 19

20 Australian Almond Insights can be downloaded from growing.australianalmonds.com.au