CASHEW WEEK. In the Cashew Week... A WEEKLY NEWSLETTER. A Product of. NewsHighlights. Vietnam EXIM data December-2016

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1 A Product of In the Cashew Week... Cashew Market Commentaries from Experts Indian Cashew Market Commentaries International Cashew Market Commentaries NewsHighlights Vietnam EXIM data December-2016 Upcoming Trade Events Almond Report Prices of Nuts Domestic Prices of Nuts International Prices of Nuts

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6 Volume 18 Issue 4 Jan 15-21, 2017 Global Cashew Market at a Glance India Cashew kernel price for various grades across the major markets remain unchanged at previous week level. In the Indian state of Maharashtra, cashew new crop is likely to be delayed by 15-days and the harvest is likely to commence from March onwards. Flowering as well as fruit setting was good, expect for first two weeks of January due to severe cold wave. In the coming weeks imported raw nuts from Tanzania are likely to hit the major ports in large quantities, as India already contracted more than 60,000 tonnes of RCN from Tanzania. Vietnam Vietnam market is likely to remain quiet ahead of week along TET holidays starting from 26 th January onwards. Vietnam RCN imports in December-2016 totalled 89,046 tonnes, more than doubled as against 44,524 tonnes imported in December Overall in 2016 Vietnam imported 10,39,320 tonnes of RCN as against 864,567 tonnes imported in In first half of Jan-2017, cashew kernel exports from Vietnam totalled 9792 tonnes, while RCN imports totalled 28,442 tonnes. Vietnam is expected to export 360,000 tonnes of cashew kernel in 2017 worth USD 3 billion. Vietnam HCM FOB price for W240, W320 ands W450 quoted higher by 5 cents when compared with last week. Tanzania The raw cashew nuts deposited in the warehouses since the beginning of the season stood at 246,403 tonnes as on 22 January, Tanzania RCN price for Indian shipments quoted in the region of USD 2150 and USD 2200 per ton for lbs for Mangalore and Tuticorin ports. Currency Indian rupee overall weakness is to stay for the time being and may trade in the broader region of and going forward. Brazil real gained as its central bank sold currency swap. But the gains are going to be limited and unlikely to trade below 3.00 against the dollar. Source: Cashewinfo.com 6

7 Volume 18 Issue 4 Jan 15-21, 2017 CNSL Market Commentaries Due to low movement of cardanol, CNSL is totally depending on furnace oil buyers. Present rate of CNSL is around INR 19/Kg paid in cash by the furnace oil buyers. The distillation people who make cardanol are unable to go beyond INR 18.50/kg. The cake is sold around INR 4.20/kg and cashew shells are around INR 6.30/Kg. If the demand of furnace oil decreases, then expect CNSL price to turn cheaper. Source: Omprakash Phadnis, Panruthi Cashew Market Commentaries from Experts-International Hearing generally positive news on the crop prospects from West Africa. Some areas are expecting early crops, but these may not reach the export markets any faster than usual as the regulation and season pricing has to be put in place and farmers may have high expectations after last year. Government agencies are tinkering with regulation for example, changes in Nigeria on farm gate purchase mechanisms but at this point there it seems unlikely that there will be any disruptive changes. Meantime the short military unrest in Ivory Coast has been overcome through negotiation and we are informed is likely to hold. Gambia too seems to have reached a point which alleviates the worst fears and which we hope will hold. Given the old crop stock in West Africa, the new crop in East Africa and the landed material at destination the likelihood of a major intra crop squeeze is diminishing in our view. Source: Jim Filtzpatrick Vietnam Markets in general were mostly stable as firm demand noticed during last week. W240 traded at USD 5.10/5.15, W320 at USD 4.45 per lb fob for Feb and Mar shipment, sold by good packers. Small and medium packers traded few cents per lb lower compared to top ones. Demand is not strong, but enough to encourage the market to stay at current higher levels. It is also reported that sales done at the levels of USD 5.20 per lb fob for W240, USD 4.55 per lb fob for W320, which is yet to be confirmed. Big buyers are still away from the market as there is no good reason for prices to be up then. Buying interests are not yet clear, although there seems to be shortage in kernel supplies. Offices and factories in Vietnam will be closed for Chinese New Year Holidays called as Tet holidays during this week and will resume from Feb 2nd. RCN prices were at higher levels, but buyers were not interested on those offers and cautious as the new crop season is fast approaching on. Source: Kheim, Vietnam China Business has stopped during last week. All the traders don t have enough ww240 and ww320 for new year selling. Some new ordered cargos are still on the way to Chinese markets,t but can only be delivered to the distributors after 03 February It is learnt that buyers just keep small quantity of stock for new year supplement, even as the prices seem stable at the moment. We are highly concerned with the Vietnam new crop, which said to begin one month later. The market situation will be more clear at that time. Let us enjoy the new year holiday! Source: Lee, China Please visit for weather report 7

8 Volume 18 Issue 4 Jan 15-21, 2017 Fig 1: Cashew Kernel- W320- Average FOB prices at Tuticorin port, India (USD/lb) W320 in the tuticorin port traded unchanged at around USD 4.6 in the last two weeks, similar trend is observed in all other grades too. Fig 2: Raw Cashew Nut (RCN) - Average Price INR per 80 kg bag The availability of RCN in the local market is negligible and the last quoted price was INR per 80 kg bag during the first week of january. For the next two months, India will rely on RCN imported from Tanzania and to some extent from Mozambique, before the commencement of new crop from March onwards. 8

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10 Volume 18 Issue 4 Jan 15-21, 2017 Almond report- California and New Delhi India'd Dry Fruits & Nuts market in the Khari Baoli area of renowned Chandani Chowk in Delhi closed for Almond In shell's from California at INR /40 Kg for 70% Sliding Scale basis for private packers, which is equivalent to USD 2.30/lbs of origin's prices. BD has closed at INR 17000/40. FAQ kernels traded at INR /kg, well down from the last report. Currency closed last week at INR against the USD. Weather has remained very cool in the Northern part of India with heavy snowfalls in the hills giving chilly winds to plains of Delhi, Punjab, Rajasthan and UP. Demand has been very low, thus causing the price corrections in Delhi, though cash flow has increased. As per the RBI's data available as of Mid-January, remonetisation of over 9.2 Lakh crore has already been done out of the Lakh crore of the demonetised currency. During this week, there will literally be no business in Delhi due to high security for Republic Day celebrations. Buyers prefer to keep away as the security drills and checking are very high and further it deters any financial cash transactions. The low demand will spill over until the first week of February due to state elections in the bordering states of Punjab and UP as they being major markets especially in the winter months coinciding with marriage season. California prices are stable to bearish with very less interest from Global markets, Buyers are sidelined knowing well that due to good rains this year, the bloom should be good and will put pressure sentimentally on growers to reduce the prices and sell both current and new crop. The prices will start falling by Gulfood time (Feb last week), which would a good buying season for many of the Indians, there may still be some packers holding tight on there inventory knowing well that Indians are short of positions for Diwali sales as most of the FMCG and Institutional sales for Diwali will be serviced by current crop only. Source: Ravindra Mehta, International fruits and Nuts Organisation, New Delhi Almond california kernel traded at Delhi declined a bit for the first time in the last one month or so. Last week almond cali. Kernel traded in the region of INR 610 and INR 615 per kg as against the previous week close of INR per kg. 10

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13 Volume 18 Issue 4 Jan 15-21, 2017 Prices of Nuts in India and International Market Table 1: RCN spot prices in India (INR per 80 kg bag) Indian RCN price at various markets Unit Rs per kg (1/13/2017) Unit Rs per kg(1/20/2017) Mangalore * * Goa Kollam * * Panruti * * Jeypore Ratnagiri * * Kolhapur * * Bandha * * Kankouli * * Note: Indian imported price landed at various ports- Min, Avg and Max during that period (excluding tax). Table 2: Kernel FOB prices in major ports as on 1/20/17 Grades Tuticorin (USD/lb fob)* Kollam(USD/lb fob) Vietnam(USD / lb fob) W W W SW SW SSW LP/LWP Ws *Prices marked in red are the prices as of last week. Table 3: Cashew Kernel: India spot prices in production centres as on 1/20/2017 in INR/kg Grades Manglore(Karnataka Kollam(Kerala) Vetapalam(A.P) Jeypore(Odisha) Ganjam(Odisha) Goa W W W W W W W S S S S LWP SWP K JH SSW BB JK/JB SW

14 Volume 18 Issue 4 Jan 15-21, 2017 Prices of Nuts in Other Indian Markets TABLE 4: Cashew kernel: India spot prices at terminal markets as on 1/20/2017 in INR/kg Grades Delhi Sangrur(Punjab) Jalandhar(Punjab) Kolaphur(Maharastra) Mumbai W W W W W S LWP SWP Currency Movement Currency 1/13/2017 1/20/2016 Indian Rupee (INR) Euro (EUR) Japanese Yen (JPY) Brazilian Real (BRL) Chinese Yuan (CNY) Singapore Dollar (SGD) Tanzanian Shilling (TZS) Thai Baht (THB) Mozambique New Metical (MZN) Vietnam Dong (VND) Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) Benin CFA Franc BCEAO (XOF) Ghanaian New Cedi (GHS) Global markets wary of Trump s protectionist measures Indian rupee last week closed mostly unchanged ahead of union budget on February 1 st. The US president Mr Trump in its inaugural speech laid out some of the protectionist measures, which is not good for the emerging economies. US Fed may hike interest rates to the tune of 75 bps during Indian rupee last week traded in the region of and against the dollar and settled at on 20 Jan. Overall rupee depreciation is likely to stay for the time being and may trade in the broader region of and going forward. 15

15 Volume 18 Issue 4 Jan 15-21, 2017 Brazil real gains as its central bank sold currency swaps Brazil real gained as central bank intervened in the market as it sold $750 million worth of currency swaps during last week. Brazil real last week traded in the region of and and finally settled at on 20 Jan. Next support is seen at 3.10 and below to strengthen further towards 3. On the higher side will continue to act as the next resistance levels. Overall real is likely to trade in the broader region of 3 and 3.35 against the dollar going forward. State of Vietnam to contain inflation under 4 percent The State Bank of Viet Nam (SBV) will control inflation under 4 percent and stabilize the macro economy so as to reach a GDP growth of 6.7 per cent, as well as ensure a safe operation for the banking system. Vietnam dong last week traded in the region of VND VND and finally settled the week at VND against the dollar. Expect dong to trade highly volatile during this week. 16

16 Volume 18 Issue 4 Jan 15-21, 2017 Comparative Movement of Currencies in 2017 (Jan to Dec) Vis-à-vis USD in cashew processing regions (Weeks starts from January 2016 and value indexed to 100) Table 6: Other Tree nut and Dry Fruits Prices at the Delhi Market (INR/kg) Grades 1/20/2017 1/13/2017 Almond Giridi in shell 137.5/ /140 Almond Gurbandhi in shell Almond California in shell 430/ /437.5 Almond Kernel California 610/ /625 Almond Kernel Gurbandi 725/ /825 Pistachio Irani 1000/ /1200 Pistachio Hairati 1350/ /1420 Pistachio Peshawari 1500/ /1600 Walnut New 290/440 Walnut Kernel 800/1450 Fig Common 300/ /375 Fig Medium 500/ /550 Fig Best 625/ /750 Apricot 450/ /625 Kishmish (Rs per kg ) Indian Yellow 70/ /112.5 Indian Green 100/ /225 Kandhari New 250/ /625 Ranga 187.5/ /210 Dry Dates (Rs per quintal) Red 2700/ /12000 Rangkat 4000/ /14000 Raisin- Sangli * * 17

17 Volume 18 Issue 4 Jan 15-21, 2017 News Highlights Indian cashew crisis deepens The cashew crisis in India is getting worse, even as government-level talks are being carried out to re-open the private sector cashew factories that have been lying closed following the last minimum wage revision. And now banks are declaring at least 60 cashew factories lying closed as nonperforming assets and issuing notices to take possession of these properties. Continue reading Nigeria plans to expand cashew cultivation area threefold Nigerian cashew producers are working on a four-year plan with the ultimate goal of increasing land dedicated to cultivating the crop and to increase exports threefold to 500,000 tons a year. With about 160,000 hectares of land producing about 150,000 tons a year, Vietnam expects cashew nut exports to reach $3b in 2017 Continue reading Vietnam predicts exports of up to 360,000 tonnes of cashews for a value of US$3 billion this year which would be an increase of 3.4% in volume and 5.6% in value over last year, according to the Vietnam Cashew Association (Vinacas). GST Rate will decide the Future of the Indian Cashew Industry Continue reading 1st Feb 2017 is the date fixed for the presentation of the Indian Budget July 1, 2017 will be the 1st day of GST. So, the budget may be for only 3 months starting from 1st April or for the entire fiscal year ending by March-end Almondco named Australian exporter of the year Continue reading Riverland-based almond co-operative Almondco Australia was chosen again as the Australian Regional Exporter of the Year. This was the co-operatives second time in five years to win the award. The co-operative of 140 growers from SA, VIC and NSW was one of twelve national winners at the 54th Australian Export Awards held in Brisbane recently. Continue reading 18

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23 Volume 18 Issue 4 Jan 15-21, 2017 Are you planning to invest in new processing factory or modernize existing cashew processing factory in India? Cashew cultivation is expanding into new areas in India. Cashew processing too is being taken up in non-traditional areas. Entrepreneurs face several questions when starting a new project, such as, which technology to choose, what should be the scale, should we choose manual vs. semi-automatic vs. fully automatic processing lines and where to set up the plant, what is the demand in my region and what is the forecast and what are the risks in investing and so on. The consulting arm of Cashewinfo.com would be happy to assist businesses in conducting Techno- Economic Feasibility studies for either establishing a new factory or modernizing an existing factory. Let us know your requirements, we would provide you with best advice. It is wise to talk to us before investing your money. Please write to swapna@fbspl.com or talk to Swapna at Cashew weekly printed Edition is promoted in the following events Event Name Date of Event City / Country 3 rd World Cashew Convention February 2017 Singapore Gulfood 26 th Feb -2 nd March 2017 World Trade Centre, Dubai 26

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25 Volume 18 Issue 4 Jan 15-21, 2017 REACH OUT TO GLOBAL CASHEW INDUSTRY ADVERTISE IN CASHEW WEEK & For Advertisement in Cashew Week "Do you have an interesting story to share with us on cashew value chain (in your region/country), innovation, processing, technology, financing or any topic related to cashew industry? If yes, write & Banner Space on CONTACT: info@cashewinfo.com Disclaimer: The data and information presented in this report are based on efforts of analysts at Foretell Business Solutions Private Limited, Bangalore and opinions and data obtained from experts and various industry sources. While sufficient care has been taken to check data and information prior to publishing, Foretell or its employees or external contributors will not be responsible for any kind of errors or omissions or misrepresentation of data or for losses incurred by any party either directly or indirectly based on the information published herein. Caution to Readers Although paid advertisements appear in this publication (in print, online, or in other electronic formats), Foretell Business Solutions Private Limited (the owner of cashewinfo.com) does not endorse the advertised product, service, or company, or any of the claims made by the advertisement. Readers are encouraged to do the necessary due diligence. However, in the interest of the industry, please share your concerns, if any, by writing to us at content@cashewinfo.com 28