World Agricultural Production

Transcription

1 Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Circular Series WAP 0212 World Agricultural Drought in Southern Brazil Reduces 2011/12 Soybean Forecast Brazil s 2011/12 soybean production is forecast at 72 million tons, down 2 million tons from last month and down 3.5 million or 5 percent from last year. is forecast at a record 25 million hectares, unchanged from last month and up 0.8 million or 3 percent from last year. is forecast at 2.88 tons per hectare, down 3 percent from last month due to belowaverage rainfall in the south from November through January. Aboveaverage rainfall during October gave nearly ideal planting conditions for most of Brazil. The planting pace was ahead of the 5year average throughout the planting season, with most of the crop planted by the end of December. However, belowaverage rainfall in the south from November through January reduced potential yields and state crop estimating agencies for Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul reduced state production forecasts by nearly 5 million tons. Crop losses from the drought in the south will be partially compensated by aboveaverage yields in the states of Mato Grosso, Goáis, Minas Gerais, and the northeastern states of Maranhão, Tocantins, Piauí, and Bahia (or the MATOPIBA region), but overall the southern drought will reduce national output by several million tons. (For more information, contact Curt Reynolds at ) Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board

2 Argentina: Continued Timely Rains Supply Soybean Needs Argentina is forecasted to produce 48 million tons of soybeans, 5 percent less than last month and 2 percent less than last year, for the 2011/12 season. The production expected will be harvested from an estimated 18.6 million hectares (ha), only 1.6 percent more area than last year and 0.5 percent less area than last month. Expected yield will fall to 2.58 tons per hectare, 4 percent lower than last month and last year. Some regions affected earlier by drought have imperiled soybean yield and production. The regions hit hard; northwestern Buenos Aires, southern Cordoba and farsouth Santa Fe, have suffered. Around Junín, a delegation in the province of Buenos Aires, most earlyplanted soy only received about 5.6 millimeters (mm), 0.34 inches, of rain from the end of November through December 20. In such areas hit by drought and heat, leaves on the soybean plants are smaller and the plant internodes are short which may limit plant branching and flower/pod set. Recent rains, however, have helped across many fields. Many fields may pull out of some of the earlier plant stress if rains continue to be timely and replenishing as the bulk of the crop goes into and finishes pollination. Lateplanted soybeans will be able to take full advantage of recent good soil moisture and warm temperatures as they emerge and proceed through the vegetative stage of development. (For more information, contact Dr. Denise McWilliams, at ) 2

3 Argentina: Corn Suffered from Hot Weather and Limited, Late Rains Too little, too late rain on Argentine corn will result in limited production during this season. USDA forecasts Argentine corn production for 2011/12 at 22.0 million tons. Harvested area is estimated at 3.6 million hectares (ha), down 2.0 million hectares. Additional moisture is necessary for the crop, which is in grain fill and approaching full maturity. The yield for the crop is now estimated at 6.11 tons per ha. In their Jan. 18 monthly report, the Argentine Ministry of Agriculture estimated that possibly 20 to 50 percent of the planted corn area may be lost due to earlier dry conditions. They further estimated that only about 1 percent of the fields were in very good condition, 32 percent good, 42 percent normal and 25 percent in bad condition. Cordoba, Argentina s secondlargest corn and soybean producing province declared a drought emergency January 17, A handful of other districts in surrounding provinces have also made the declaration. Some corn fields have been cut for silage or have cattle grazing due to poor grain fill. Some stalks in areas with sandier drought prone soils have not developed ears. The earlyplanted corn in Argentina appears to be the most affected as high temperatures and moisture deficits hit during pollination, resulting in lower yield potential. Lateplanted corn across the core area generally appears in better form but is in danger of not reaching maturity before a killing frost. (For more information, contact Dr. Denise McWilliams, at ) 3

4 Argentina: Barley gets Boost from Increase Argentine barley farmers planted additional area this season that will boost supplies. The area estimated at 1.05 million hectares is more than originally suggested by Argentine officials. This increase of 11 percent over last month s estimation of 0.95 million hectares will supply more grain for the country. is now forecast at 4.0 million tons as compared to last month s estimation of 3.3 million tons, a 21 percent increase. is expected to nationally average 3.81 tons per hectare as compared to the earlier estimate at 3.47 tons, a 10 percent increase. On again off again rains during the fall establishment of barley and some dry periods during the winter result in farmers deciding to plant more barley than originally estimated. Rains during grain fill provided more assimilate to grain from barley plants that increased yield and production. (For more information, contact Dr. Denise McWilliams, at ) India's Rice Projected at Record Levels India's 2011/12 rice production is forecast at 102 million tons, up 2 percent from last month, and up 6 million or 6.3 percent from last year. is forecast at 45.2 million hectares, up 0.4 percent from last month, and up 5.9 percent from last year. Paddy yield is forecast at a record 3.39 tons per hectare, up 1.5 percent from last month and 0.4 percent from last year. The major factors shaping the current crop outlook include the betterthanexpected Kharif rice production. Favorable 2011 monsoon rains coupled with overall weather conditions in the major rice growing areas supported higher kharif rice acreage (3.0 million hectare above last year) and productivity leading to a record rice production as reflected by strong market arrivals of kharif paddy. According to the recent Government of India s estimate report the Kharif rice production is now estimated at 87 million tons, a significantly larger crop than previously forecasted. In addition, the Rabi rice crop is now forecast at approximately 15 million tons based on encouraging Rabi rice sowing progress reports. The Kharif rice harvesting is almost complete in most regions especially in the north and south peninsular regions. The Kharif rice crop represents approximately 85% the total India rice production, and early planting is normally in MarchMay and is harvested in JuneOctober. Late Kharif planting is in JuneOctober and the crop is harvested in NovemberFebruary. The major Kharif rice producing states are Punjab, Haryana, and Uttar Pradesh. The Rabi rice crop accounts for 15 percent of total India rice production. The crop is planted in NovemberFebruary and harvested in MarchJune. The major Rabi rice producing states are West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh, Orissa, Karnataka, Assam, and Tamil Nadu. (For more information, contact Dath Mita at ) 4

5 High Prospects Projected for the Pakistan Cotton The USDA estimates Pakistan s 2011/12 cotton production at 10.4 million bales (480 pound bales), a 4 percent increase from last month and up 18 percent from last year. If achieved this will be the second largest harvest on record. harvested is estimated at 3.2 million hectares, the same as last month, and up 10 percent from last year. The yield is estimated at 708 kg/ha, up 4 percent from last month, and up 7 percent from last year. Cotton harvest in Pakistan is almost complete. According to the Pakistan Cotton Ginner s Association (PCGA) cumulative seed cotton arrivals at factories show significant improvement compared to the same time in the last two years. At the end of January consolidated cotton arrivals at ginning factories were estimated at approximately 10 million bales, 23 percent higher than the same period last year. There is wide consensus that a significant quantity of cotton is still left with growers, raising prospects that the season s output will be in excess of the previous estimate of 10 million bales. Historic averages of seed cotton arrivals for the remainder of season (February May) tend to be around 400,000 bales, which is the basis of the current projection of the final estimate. The major cotton regions of Punjab and upper Sindh experienced favorable conditions during peak vegetative and maturity stages. Favorable monsoon rainfall was reported throughout the season in Punjab province. Sindh province received heavierthannormal and persistent rains from midaugust to midseptember. General observations and analysis indicated that flooding occurred in a few provincial districts in southeast Sindh including Sanghar, Mirpurkhas, Umarkot, and Badin. The northern Sindh districts were least affected. In contrast, the torrential rains did not cause significant flooding in Punjab province, and in most areas was actually beneficial to maturing cotton and rice crops resulting in aboveaverage crop performance and yields. (For more information, contact Dath Mita, PhD, at ) 5

6 This report uses information from the Foreign Agricultural Service s (FAS) global network of agricultural attachés and counselors, official statistics of foreign governments and other foreign source materials, and the analysis of economic data and satellite imagery. Estimates of foreign area, yield, and production are from the International Assessment Branch, FAS, and are reviewed by USDA s InterAgency Commodity Estimates Committee. Estimates of U.S. area, yield, and production are from USDA s National Agricultural Statistics Service. Numbers within the report may not add to totals because of rounding. This report reflects official USDA estimates released in the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE503), February 9, Printed copies are available from the National Technical Information Service. Download an order form at or call NTIS at The FAS International Assessment Branch prepared this report. The next issue of World Agricultural will be released after 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time, March 9, Conversion Table Metric tons to bushels Wheat, soybeans = MT * Corn, sorghum, rye = MT * Barley = MT * Oats = MT * Metric tons to 480lb bales Cotton = MT * Metric tons to hundredweight Rice = MT * & weight 1 hectare = acres 1 kilogram = pounds 6

7 For further information, contact: U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Office of Global Analysis International Assessment Division Ag Box 1051, Room 4630, South Building Washington, DC Telephone: (202) Fax: (202) GENERAL INFORMATION Director Derrick Williams III Acting Deputy Director Paul Provance Sr. Analyst/SIA Manager Curt Reynolds, PhD USDA Remote Sensing Advisor Glenn Bethel Sr. Agricultural Economist Paul Provance Sr. Analyst/Technical Lead Dath Mita PhD Program Analyst Mary Jackson GIS Analyst/WAP Coordinator Justin Jenkins COUNTRY AND REGIONSPECIFIC INFORMATION South America Denise McWilliams PhD Europe and North Africa Bryan Purcell FSU12, Russia Mark Lindeman Canada, Mexico, Central America Arnella Trent and Caribbean China, East Asia, Venezuela Paulette Sandene South Asia, India, Australia Dath Mita PhD and New Zealand Africa, Brazil Curt Reynolds PhD Middle East and Southeast Asia Michael Shean Eastern Robert Tetrault Western Jim Crutchfield

8 Table 01 World Crop Summary Million Metric Tons Commodity World Total Foreign North America United States North America Canada North America Mexico EU27 Former Soviet Russia Former Soviet Ukraine Asia (WAP) China Asia (WAP) India Asia (WAP) Asia (WAP) Asia (WAP) South America South America Brazil Selected Other Indonesia Pakistan Thailand Argentina Australia Selected Other South Africa Selected Other Turkey All Others Million metric tons Wheat nr 24.0 nr /11 prel nr 23.9 nr /12 proj. Jan nr 24.0 nr Feb nr 24.0 nr Coarse Grains 1, /11 prel. 1, /12 proj. Jan 1, Feb 1, Rice, Milled nr nr /11 prel nr nr /12 proj. Jan nr nr Feb nr nr Total Grains 2, , /11 prel. 2, , /12 proj. Jan 2, , Feb 2, , Oilseeds /11 prel /12 proj. Jan Feb Cotton nr nr nr /11 prel nr nr nr /12 proj. Jan nr nr nr Feb nr nr nr / Includes wheat, coarse grains, and rice (milled) shown above.

9 Table 02 Wheat,, and Change in 2010/11 Jan Feb 2010/11 Jan Feb 2010/11 Jan Feb MMT Percent MMT Percent World Total Foreign China South Asia India Pakistan Afghanistan Former Soviet Union 12 Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan Uzbekistan EU France Germany United Kingdom Poland Spain Italy Denmark Hungary Romania Bulgaria Canada Australia Middle East Turkey Iran Syria North Africa Egypt Morocco Argentina Others

10 Table 03 Total Coarse Grain,, and Change in 2010/11 Jan Feb 2010/11 Jan Feb 2010/11 Jan Feb MMT Percent MMT Percent World , , , , Total Foreign China South America Brazil Argentina EU France Germany Poland Spain Italy Hungary United Kingdom Romania Former Soviet Union 12 Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan Africa Nigeria South Africa Ethiopia Egypt India Southeast Asia Indonesia Philippines Thailand Mexico Canada Australia Turkey Others

11 Table 04 Corn,, and Change in 2010/11 Jan Feb 2010/11 Jan Feb 2010/11 Jan Feb MMT Percent MMT Percent World Total Foreign China South America Brazil Argentina Mexico EU France Italy Hungary Romania Poland India Canada Indonesia Ukraine Serbia Egypt Philippines Vietnam Thailand Russia SubSaharan Africa South Africa Nigeria Ethiopia Zimbabwe Turkey Others

12 Table 05 Barley,, and Change in 2010/11 Jan Feb 2010/11 Jan Feb 2010/11 Jan Feb MMT Percent MMT Percent World Total Foreign Russia EU Germany France Spain United Kingdom Denmark Poland Czech Republic Finland Sweden Italy Hungary Austria Ukraine Canada Australia Turkey China Iran Morocco Kazakhstan Ethiopia Belarus India Argentina Mexico Iraq Algeria Others

13 Table 06 Oats,, and Change in 2010/11 Jan Feb 2010/11 Jan Feb 2010/11 Jan Feb MMT Percent MMT Percent World Total Foreign Russia Canada EU Poland Finland Spain Germany Sweden United Kingdom France Italy Denmark Romania Czech Republic Hungary Austria Ireland Lithuania Australia Ukraine China Belarus Brazil Argentina Chile Norway Turkey Kazakhstan Serbia Others

14 Table 07 Rye,, and Change in 2010/11 Jan Feb 2010/11 Jan Feb 2010/11 Jan Feb MMT Percent MMT Percent World Total Foreign EU Poland Germany Spain Lithuania Latvia France Denmark Czech Republic Austria Sweden Hungary Slovakia Finland United Kingdom Romania Greece Portugal Russia Belarus Ukraine Canada Turkey Argentina Kazakhstan Australia Switzerland Others

15 Table 08 Sorghum,, and World Total Foreign SubSaharan Africa Change in 2010/11 Jan Feb 2010/11 Jan Feb 2010/11 Jan Feb MMT Percent MMT Percent Nigeria Sudan Ethiopia Burkina Tanzania Niger Uganda Mozambique Ghana South Africa South Asia India Pakistan South America Argentina Brazil Mexico China Australia Egypt EU France Italy Others

16 Table 09 Rice,, and Change in 2010/11 Jan Feb 2010/11 Jan Feb 2010/11 Jan Feb MMT Percent MMT Percent World Total Foreign East Asia China Japan Korea, South Korea, North South Asia India Bangladesh Pakistan Southeast Asia Indonesia Vietnam Thailand Burma Philippines Cambodia Laos Malaysia South America Brazil Peru SubSaharan Africa Nigeria Madagascar EU Italy Spain Egypt Iran Others is on a rough basis, before the milling process is on a milled basis, after the milling process

17 Table 10 Total Oilseed,, and Change in 2010/11 Jan Feb 2010/11 Jan Feb 2010/11 Jan Feb MMT Percent MMT Percent World Total Total Foreign Oilseed, Copra Oilseed, Palm Kernel Major OilSeeds Foreign Oilseeds South America Brazil Argentina Paraguay Bolivia China South Asia India Pakistan EU France Germany Poland Romania Hungary United Kingdom Former Soviet Union Russia Ukraine Uzbekistan Canada Africa Nigeria Southeast Asia Indonesia Australia Others World Total and Total Foreign: (Major Oilseeds plus copra and palm kernel) Major Oilseeds: (soybeans, sunflowerseeds, peanuts(inshell), cottonseed and rapeseed)

18 Table 11 Soybean,, and World Total Foreign South America Change in 2010/11 Jan Feb 2010/11 Jan Feb 2010/11 Jan Feb MMT Percent MMT Percent Brazil Argentina Paraguay Bolivia Uruguay East Asia China Korea, South Korea, North Japan India Canada Former Soviet Union Ukraine Russia Southeast Asia Indonesia Vietnam Thailand Burma EU Italy France SubSaharan Africa South Africa Nigeria Uganda Serbia Mexico Iran Others

19 Table 12 Cottonseed,, and Change in 2010/11 Jan Feb 2010/11 Jan Feb 2010/11 Jan Feb MMT Percent MMT Percent World Total Foreign China South Asia India Pakistan Former Soviet Union 12 Uzbekistan Turkmenistan Tajikistan Kazakhstan South America Brazil Argentina Middle East Turkey Syria Iran Australia EU Greece Spain SubSaharan Africa Burkina Mali Cameroon Sudan Zimbabwe Nigeria Benin Uganda Egypt Mexico Burma Others

20 Table 13 Peanut,, and Change in 2010/11 Jan Feb 2010/11 Jan Feb 2010/11 Jan Feb MMT Percent MMT Percent World Total Foreign China South Asia India Pakistan SubSaharan Africa Nigeria Senegal Chad Ghana Sudan Congo (Kinshasa) Burkina Guinea Cameroon Mali Malawi Cote d'ivoire Uganda Central African Republic Benin Mozambique Niger South Africa Southeast Asia Indonesia Burma Vietnam Thailand South America Argentina Brazil Egypt Mexico Others

21 Table 14 Sunflowerseed,, and Change in 2010/11 Jan Feb 2010/11 Jan Feb 2010/11 Jan Feb MMT Percent MMT Percent World Total Foreign Former Soviet Union 12 Russia Ukraine Moldova Kazakhstan South America Argentina Uruguay Bolivia China EU France Hungary Spain Italy Slovakia South Asia India Pakistan Turkey South Africa Burma Serbia Canada Australia Others

22 Table 15 Rapeseed,, and Change in 2010/11 Jan Feb 2010/11 Jan Feb 2010/11 Jan Feb MMT Percent MMT Percent World Total Foreign EU Germany France United Kingdom Poland Czech Republic Denmark Hungary Romania Slovakia Sweden Lithuania Latvia Austria Finland Estonia China South Asia India Pakistan Bangladesh Canada Australia Former Soviet Union 12 Ukraine Russia Belarus Paraguay Others