DTC Analysis of East Coast & Gulf Coast Export Data from T. Parker Host October 2017

Transcription

1 Wednesday, Nvember 22, Dyle Trading Cnsultants DTC Flash : Octber East Cast and Gulf Cast Exprts DTC Analysis f East Cast & Gulf Cast Exprt Data frm T. Parker Hst Octber DTC Shrt & Sweet: T Parker Hst is reprting that fr Octber, steam exprts have utpaced met exprts fr the first time in. Steam exprts were 3.81 mm tns, up 22.26% seq pd and % while met exprts f 3.42 mm tns fell 17.11% seq pd but rse 25.92% leading t ttal exprts thrugh the Gulf and East Cast f 7.23 mm tns, dwn 0.16% seq pd but up 79.56%. When lking at trends, steam exprts started gaining grund in June and have been clsing n met each mnth until finally vertaking it this mnth. Seabrne thermal prices cntinue t supprt US exprts despite recent declines: prmpt quarter API 2 averaged $87.73/MT in Octber and sits at $85.60/MT as f tday. Als ntewrthy this mnth, we read n Liga.net that Xcal s price fr thermal exprts t PJSC Centrenerg in Ukraine is ~$100.7/MT (CIF). Xcal has a cntract t ship 700K MT (772K befre the end f, having shipped 60K MT (66K in Sept and 227K MT (250K in Oct. exprts ttal mm tns, up 62.79% and are annualizing t mm tns, well abve last year s ttal f mm tns. We are aware f a few hliday clsures fr the Prt f Hamptn Rads this week: Pier IX will clse Wed at 11 PM ET and repen Fri at 6 AM ET. Lamberts Pint will clse Thurs at 7 AM ET and repen Fri at 7 AM ET (pssibility f clsure n Friday as well). DTA will remain peratinal thrugh the hliday. East & Gulf Cast Met Exprts (mm shrt Hamptn Rads % 35.35% % Baltimre % 1.85% % Mbile % 42.37% % Ttal % 25.92% % East & Gulf Cast Steam Exprts (mm shrt Hamptn Rads % % % Baltimre % % % Hustn % n/a 0.39 n/a New Orleans % % % Ttal % % % East & Gulf Cast Ttal Exprts (mm shrt Ttal % 79.56% % Surce: T. Parker Hst Inc; Data prepared by Dyle Trading Cnsultants

2 Baltimre: 2.34 mm tns, up 5.03% seq pd and 54.44%. Thrugh Octber, exprts ttal mm tns, up 46.20% and annualize t mm tns (vs mm tns in 2016). CSX s Chesapeake Terminal: 525K tns, dwn 12.60% seq pd but up 0.61%. Octber shippers were Arch, Crsa, Javelin, United, Wilsn Creek and Xcal. exprts ttal 4.86 mm tns, dwn 9.70% and annualizing t 5.83 mm tns (vs 6.73 mm tns in 2016). CNX Terminal: 1.81 mm tns, up 19.01% seq pd and 82.73%. Octber shippers were CONSOL, Javelin and Xcal. exprts ttal mm tns, up 92.07% and annualize t mm tns (vs 7.80 mm tns in 2016). Hamptn Rads: 3.06 mm tns, dwn 3.45% seq pd but up 84.36%. Thrugh Octber, exprts ttal mm tns, up 63.59% and annualize t mm tns (vs mm tns in 2016). DTA Terminal (jintly wned by Arch and Cntura): 1.25 mm tns, up 6.12% seq pd and %. Octber shippers were Arch, Cmmnwealth, Cntura, EDF, Javelin and Xcal. exprts ttal mm tns, up 66.09% and annualize t mm tns (vs 7.52 mm tns in 2016). Nrflk Suthern s Lamberts Pint: 1.30 mm tns, up 6.70% seq pd and 84.97%. Octber shippers were Cntura, EDF, Integrity, Javelin, Rbindale, United and Xcal. exprts ttal mm tns, up 56.91% and annualize t mm tns (vs 9.41 mm tns in 2016). Kinder Mrgan s Pier IX: 513K tns, dwn 33.86% seq pd but up 8.33%. Octber shippers were EDF, Integrity, Rbindale, Vitl, Xcal. exprts ttal 6.02 mm tns, up 74.32% and annualize t 7.23 mm tns (vs 5.05 mm tns in 2016). Hustn: T Parker Hst reprts exprts fr Deepwater and HBT ut f Hustn. HBT: 66K tns, dwn frm 74K tns seq but up frm n exprts. All tns were steam and bund fr Brazil. Mbile: T Parker Hst reprts exprts fr BMHP, CHIPCO and McDuffie ut f Mbile. McDuffie: 468K tns, dwn frm 773K tns seq abut up frm 328K tns. All tns were met bund fr Cratia, Germany, Italy, Netherlands and Spain. New Orleans: T Parker Hst reprts exprts fr CMT, IMT, Midstream and UBT. CMT: 798 mm tns, up frm 600K tns seq and 325K tns. All tns were steam and bund fr Germany, Netherlands, Spain and United Kingdm. Midstream: 494K tns, up frm 333K tns seq and 140K tns. All tns were steam and bund fr Egypt, Finland, Germany, India, Mrcc and Pakistan. *Nte: Cverage frm here dwn is nly fr Hamptn Rads and Baltimre. Reginal Trends/Steam Cal: 2.45 mm tns, up 17.51% seq pd and %. exprts f mm tns are up %. Africa: 133K tns, dwn 56.08% seq pd but up frm n tns. All tns were frm EDF. Asia: 820K tns, dwn 12.81% seq pd but up %. Shippers were CONSOL and Javelin. Eurpe: 1.38 mm tns, up 87.84% seq pd and %. Shippers were CONSOL, EDF, Javelin, Vitl and Xcal. Middle East: 116K tns, up frm n tns seq r. Shippers were CONSOL and Javelin. Reginal Trends/Met Cal: 2.95 mm tns, dwn 10.95% seq pd but up 24.06%. exprts f mm tns are up 35.06%.

3 Asia: 931K tns, dwn 21.84% seq pd but up 15.19%. Shippers were Arch, Cntura, Wilsn Creek and Xcal. China: 221K tns, up 1.52% seq pd and up frm n tns. India: 81K tns, dwn 68.99% seq pd but up frm n tns. Japan: 485K tns, up 93.18% seq pd but dwn 8.16%. Krea: 144K tns, dwn 68.77% seq pd and 48.58%. Eurpe: 1.57 mm tns, up 1.07% seq pd and 50.68%. Shippers were Arch. Cmmnwealth, Cntura, Integrity, Rbindale, United and Xcal. Nrth America: 55K tns, dwn 55.16% seq pd and flat. Shipper was Cntura. Suth America: 396K tns, up 7.51% seq pd but dwn 16.48%. Shippers were Crsa, Cntura and Xcal. Met/Steam Breakdwn: Octber met exprts fell 10.95% seq pd but rse 24.06% t 2.95 mm tns. Steam cal exprts rse 17.51% seq pd and % t 2.45 mm tns.

4 Octber East Cast Exprts frm Majr Exprters: The tables belw detail hw majr exprters fared in Octber. This data nly includes direct exprts fr which the cmpany is the shipper n recrd. A significant prtin f CONSOL s exprts are shipped under Xcal. Other prducers als ship vlumes thrugh traders, which will nt be included under mnthly exprts listed belw. Cmpany (000 net Octber Shipments frm Majr Exprters/Baltimre (mm net Arch % % % CONSOL % % % Ntes All met bund fr Krea and Spain. All steam bund fr Egypt, India and Netherlands. United 20 n/a % % All met bund fr Ukraine. Xcal % 41.44% % Other % 61.57% % Ttal 2, % 54.44% % Cmpany Octber Shipments frm Majr Exprters/Hamptn Rads (000 net (mm net Arch % % % Cntura % 79.10% % 607K tns f met bund fr Brazil, China, Japan and Ukraine. 330K tns f steam bund fr Pland and Ukraine. Other cnsisted f Crsa, Javelin and Wilsn Creek. 65K tns f met bund fr Argentina and Krea. 643K tns f steam bund fr Egypt, India, Netherlands and Pland. 816K tns f met vs 1.52 mm tns f steam in Oct. Ntes All met bund fr Pland and Rmania. All met bund fr Brazil, Cratia, France, India, Krea, Mexic, Pland, Spain and Sweden. United % % % All met bund fr Ukraine. Xcal % % % Other 1, % % % Ttal 3, % 84.36% % Surce: T. Parker Hst Inc; Data prepared by Dyle Trading Cnsultants, LLC All met bund fr Brazil, China, Japan, Pland, Rmania, Sweden and United Kingdm. Other cnsisted f Cmmnwealth, EDF, Integrity, Javelin, Rbindale, Vitl. 430K tns f met bund fr Cratia, Finland, France, Germany, Rmania, Spain and Turkey. 928K tns f steam bund fr France, Germany, Italy, Mrcc, Netherlands and Prtugal mm tns f met vs 928K tns f steam in Oct. Nte: This data nly includes direct exprts fr which the cmpany is the shipper n recrd. Cmpanies als ship thrugh traders and thse shipments are nt included in this data.

5 Hans Daniels CEO Mbile: Andy Blumenfeld Head f Market Analytics ablumenfeld@dyletradingcnsultants.cm Mbile: Dianna Ridgway Senir Vice President- Research dridgway@dyletradingcnsultants.cm Mbile: DTC NY Office 52 Vanderbilt Avenue, 11 th Flr New Yrk, NY Phne: DTC CO Office P.O. Bx 4390 Grand Junctin, CO Phne: This transmissin is meant fr the sle use f thse clients n DTC s distributin list. Unauthrized reprductin and/r distributin is prhibited. If yu are nt a client r uncertain f yur status, please cntact Steve Ristevski fr further infrmatin and/r a cmplimentary trial (sristevski@dyletradingcnsultants.cm; ). The data, market news, cmmentary and pinin cntained in this publicatin ( Cntent ) are fr infrmatinal purpses nly. Cntent is nt intended t be used, nr shuld it be used, as the primary basis fr making trading r investment decisins. Specifically, Cntent shuld nt be cnsidered, either implicitly r explicitly, as a recmmendatin t buy, sell, hld, r engage in any type f transactin. While we at Dyle Trading Cnsultants use ur best effrts t prvide timely and accurate data and market news, we d nt guarantee the timeliness, accuracy, reliability r cmpleteness f any such infrmatin. We shall nt be liable fr any errrs in Cntent r delays in the transmissin f any Cntent.